Handicapping By Example

[Dan Montilion]

In chapter 41 of Bill Quirin's book he lays out a formula if you will, to attempt to arrive at a single number. He uses Quirin pace and final numbers and attempts to give a single rating encompassing how the runner did vs. the race shape. Has anybody tried this?

[jfdinneen]

Dan,

I expect that many handicappers use the Quirin 'Comprehensive Speed Figure' example based on 'Race Shape' as a starting point for their own pace figures.

Personally, I have adapted his example to work for both sprints and routes and use the generated numbers as part of a comprehensive elimination process. In comparison with Carroll speed figures (highly recommended), I found that in 90% of cases, the numbers pointed to the same eliminations but, with the remaining 10% of cases, Quirin figures provided additional added value that proved very profitable.

Note that I use this approach to handicapping not only US racing but also European, Hong Kong and Japanese racing!

In general, I have found that pace is only important at the extremes (e.g, going, number of runners, grade of race) with the exception of California and similar geographic regions where the surface conditions guarantee pace accounts for a substantial percentage of the overall variation in race performance.

Best wishes,

John

[46zilzal]

In chapter 41 of Bill Quirin's book he lays out a formula if you will, to attempt to arrive at a single number.

Too general. One size didn't fit all.......A step toward enlightenment but early in that quest.

[betovernetcapper]

I attempted it when the book first came out and gave up after a week or two-way too much trouble for the results.
I read a review of the book in one of the Sartin newsletters saying something that the rating was the same as/similar to some Sartin number.

[cj]

Too general. One size didn't fit all.......A step toward enlightenment but early in that quest.

I began with Quirin. I've built a lot of what I do on his original premises, while improving on the flaws. I'd love to be able to talk to him about my ideas someday.

[46zilzal]

I began with Quirin. I've built a lot of what I do on his original premises, while improving on the flaws. I'd love to be able to talk to him about my ideas someday.
Same here.....go to Adelphi University as his e-mail address is listed there

http://academics.adelphi.edu/artsci/math/faculty/quirin.html

[thelyingthief]

however, i've always considered that book an education.

quirinn, when the dust has cleared, may well have been handicapping's finest author. one thing for sure, i never have the feeling of some sort of legible snake oil clogging my spectacles after reading the man.

[46zilzal]

Bill Quirin is a giant in the handicapping ranks.....

[John]

He is a down-to-earth man who feels for the Handicapper


:) :) :)

[The Judge]

Never did use the method but I always bought his "grass stallion ratings" they were great, he only chareged a small fee. Got to talk to him by phone about the list which he stopped doing many years ago. I think he was doing some sort of math study on golf of all things.

[Greyfox]

I tested that number over 10 years ago.
As I recall Quirin had not tested the number himself, but offered that in theory it should work. It did not work for me , but perhaps I should have given it a longer trial.

[Bill Olmsted]

Top three finishers in the handicapping writers hall of fame:


1. Bill Quirin
2. Tom Ainslie
3. Andy Beyer

[Greyfox]

Quirin's work was excellent.
However, there were rumors that something happened between him and another famous group of handicappers, possibly PERCO, in the early 90's or so.
Does anyone have any fill in the blank info as to why Quirin quit publishing about horse racing?

[saevena]

I believe Quirin, way back when, had some problems with the management at Laurel. As I recall, he was responsible for the design of the Sports Palace there. He is also about the only honest handicapping author I've known.

[Bill Olmsted]

The reason Quirin quit is because Bloodstock Research Information Services screwed him big time over a deal concerning early online disimation of handicpaping information. I talked to Bill, and he was so pissed at Happy Broadbent of BRIS that he quit the game altogether.

Pity because Quirin was the best thing around. The man was a genius and a real gentleman.

[Tom]

And BRIS probably still has the $1.25 they saved. :ThmbDown::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

[Topcat]

The reason Quirin quit is because Bloodstock Research Information Services screwed him big time over a deal concerning early online disimation of handicpaping information. I talked to Bill, and he was so pissed at Happy Broadbent of BRIS that he quit the game altogether.

Pity because Quirin was the best thing around. The man was a genius and a real gentleman.


Same information I had.
Quirin was going to be a partner of sorts in the original BRIS and he gave them the original idea, they used him for information other ideas etc and then cut him out.

I think I remember seeing a quote or two from Ed Bain in his lawsuit against others (not BRIS) saying that when he met with one of the Broadbents they essentially said what would stop us from reverse engineering your method and making it our own.

I should add that I wasn’t there at any of the conversations and this is all second hand info

[46zilzal]

The reason Quirin quit is because Bloodstock Research Information Services screwed him big time over a deal concerning early online disimation of handicapping information. I talked to Bill, and he was so pissed at Happy Broadbent of BRIS that he quit the game altogether.

Pity because Quirin was the best thing around. The man was a genius and a real gentleman.
Agree 100%. A fine gentlemen to me as well.