BC to Monmouth , shape up or else

[point given]

Hearsay, just hearsay . Fellow handicapper told me that the BC folks were out to Monmouth last week and were very disappointed at the progress of the rehab they are supposed to do for the BC this year. They suppposedly gave them a 60 period to get it done or else move the BC to Belmont.
I did observe that the outdoor cafe near the walking ring was enlarged,bricked, etc. and that they had torn out an outside wall of another restaurant, but the plant doesnot seem to have a whole lot of construction or rehabbing going on.

[o_crunk]

a lot of people i talk to when i'm there on weekends wonder where the 30M+ is going.

they sure haven't done much...and in some instances i would say it's getting worse...but it looks like they aren't done.

btw...they had 7 dark months to do all this work...i'm surpirsed they are doing a lot of the work during the meet.

also i would add that they haven't been carding a lot of turf races. turf looked good the first couple of weeks....but it's starting to dry out...and most days only see 2 races...makes ya wonder.

[john del riccio]

a lot of people i talk to when i'm there on weekends wonder where the 30M+ is going.

they sure haven't done much...and in some instances i would say it's getting worse...but it looks like they aren't done.

btw...they had 7 dark months to do all this work...i'm surpirsed they are doing a lot of the work during the meet.

also i would add that they haven't been carding a lot of turf races. turf looked good the first couple of weeks....but it's starting to dry out...and most days only see 2 races...makes ya wonder.


This Jersey we are talkingh about !
Fagetaboutit.....

Jojhn

[point given]

a lot of people i talk to when i'm there on weekends wonder where the 30M+ is going.

they sure haven't done much...and in some instances i would say it's getting worse...but it looks like they aren't done.

btw...they had 7 dark months to do all this work...i'm surpirsed they are doing a lot of the work during the meet.

also i would add that they haven't been carding a lot of turf races. turf looked good the first couple of weeks....but it's starting to dry out...and most days only see 2 races...makes ya wonder.

Lets see , $30 mil at 5% ,is $1.5mil/year ? Wouldn't be surprised to see some bonuses given out to management after the BC hidden in the "Misc." category in the ledger, :eek:

[GaryG]

Probably a real life Tony Soprano with a lot of no show jobs and kickbacks...this is Jersey after all, what did they expect?

[alysheba88]

Probably a real life Tony Soprano with a lot of no show jobs and kickbacks...this is Jersey after all, what did they expect?

I guess this is when I am supposed to start with the redneck jokes....You guys are too much. Come up with some new material

[garyoz]

I'm not playing MTH much, but watching the races pretty closely. Looks like the same old main track bias of early speed/rail is showing up. The first few weeks the track seemed much fairer. Also late runners don't seem to be doing very well on the turf. This could be another Lone Star BC--which I thought was the hands down the worst BC. The absence of Euros and track and turf course bias made it unmemorable except for how disappointing it was.

Personally, I could care less about the physical appearance of the place, but just want "fair" racing. How about improving the track surface? Then again the rail bias at CD for the last breeders cup was also a joke (IMHO).

Anyone watching MTH have a different take?

[alysheba88]

I'm not playing MTH much, but watching the races pretty closely. Looks like the same old main track bias of early speed/rail is showing up. The first few weeks the track seemed much fairer. Also late runners don't seem to be doing very well on the turf. This could be another Lone Star BC--which I thought was the hands down the worst BC. The absence of Euros and track and turf course bias made it unmemorable except for how disappointing it was.

Personally, I could care less about the physical appearance of the place, but just want "fair" racing. How about improving the track surface? Then again the rail bias at CD for the last breeders cup was also a joke (IMHO).

Anyone watching MTH have a different take?

Dont you want to make money? Speed is good, so what? Way too many people still dont adjust to it. To me its far easier making money at a speed biased track than any other

[garyoz]

Way too many people still dont adjust to it.


Let's see data on that.

[alysheba88]

Let's see data on that.

What? You want to see betting records of everyone who bets Monmouth?

[john del riccio]

I'm not playing MTH much, but watching the races pretty closely. Looks like the same old main track bias of early speed/rail is showing up. The first few weeks the track seemed much fairer. Also late runners don't seem to be doing very well on the turf. This could be another Lone Star BC--which I thought was the hands down the worst BC. The absence of Euros and track and turf course bias made it unmemorable except for how disappointing it was.

Personally, I could care less about the physical appearance of the place, but just want "fair" racing. How about improving the track surface? Then again the rail bias at CD for the last breeders cup was also a joke (IMHO).

Anyone watching MTH have a different take?

Gary,

I have been following MTH since I was a 5yo....I know that track better than I know alot of others. They changed the surface yet again this year (dirt)
and the turf course was changed last year I beleive. WRT the dirt races, there are several things you need to take into account. MTH is slower after the 2 dark days Mon & Tues, and if there isn't any precipitation, the track will gradually get faster over the rest of the week (on average). if there is any significant rain whatsoever, the track, upon drying out will get very fast.
being an owner, i can tell you that the surface base is pretty ard, and when it rains, its hard on the horses and the track maintenance takes a few days to "fix" it. this year, the first several weeks awere all speed an dth erail, similiar to the inner track at AQU this winter. The horsement weren't happy, and when 5 claimers are running 9 & change, somethings just aint right. they added sand and slowed it down alot, horses from off the pace stareted running better. We got some heavy rain, the track dired out, and the following several days were all speed.

On the truf course, they have been running with the rails out alot and at MTH that is very very conducive to speed, horses have only so much roon to go wide and the field tends to bunch round the turns with alot of traffic, the horses with a clear run and or early speed are have even more of an advantage than they normally do.

Good Luck,
John

[speedking]

Gary,

I have been following MTH since I was a 5yo....I know that track better than I know alot of others. They changed the surface yet again this year (dirt)
and the turf course was changed last year I beleive. WRT the dirt races, there are several things you need to take into account. MTH is slower after the 2 dark days Mon & Tues, and if there isn't any precipitation, the track will gradually get faster over the rest of the week (on average). if there is any significant rain whatsoever, the track, upon drying out will get very fast.
being an owner, i can tell you that the surface base is pretty ard, and when it rains, its hard on the horses and the track maintenance takes a few days to "fix" it. this year, the first several weeks awere all speed an dth erail, similiar to the inner track at AQU this winter. The horsement weren't happy, and when 5 claimers are running 9 & change, somethings just aint right. they added sand and slowed it down alot, horses from off the pace stareted running better. We got some heavy rain, the track dired out, and the following several days were all speed.

On the truf course, they have been running with the rails out alot and at MTH that is very very conducive to speed, horses have only so much roon to go wide and the field tends to bunch round the turns with alot of traffic, the horses with a clear run and or early speed are have even more of an advantage than they normally do.

Good Luck,
John

Good report, John. All I can add is that the turf course was replaced over this past off-season. That is why they had no grass racing until Memorial Day weekend. Rails have been up much of the time with less turf races carded than previous seasons. Guess it's a BC thing:lol:

Rails up means speed holds much better and when the course dries out and hardens, frontrunners carry their speed much further. Saving ground and staying within striking range is extremely important on such days and savvy riders like Bravo can ride that course to perfection. Lezcano and Castro have looked good on the lawn there also.

speedking

[garyoz]

What? You want to see betting records of everyone who bets Monmouth?

Maybe evidence of variables associated with speed showing a positive ROI? The balls in your court. You suggested it was easier making money on a speed favoring track. Just look for evidence to back up the assertion.

[alysheba88]

Maybe evidence of variables associated with speed showing a positive ROI? The balls in your court. You suggested it was easier making money on a speed favoring track. Just look for evidence to back up the assertion.

I said to me it was easier making money at speed tracks and my betting records support it.

The public, especially at tracks like Monmouth with a decent amount of square money on the weekends in particular, still underbets speed.

I find it far easier making money under these circumstances. Not looking for theoretical roi discussion prefer to live in the real and now

[garyoz]

Not looking for theoretical roi discussion prefer to live in the real and now


ROI has little to do with theory. Just looking for "real" evidence to back up assertation. My experience is speed is way overbet at speed favoring tracks and success requires passing many races--and then holding your nose and eating alot of chalk when you do bet. Not my style.

[alysheba88]

Did you bet Monmouth this weekend? Did you see the bias and the prices?

Total myth about chalk. You cant blindly bet speed every race regardless of odds

[alysheba88]

ROI has little to do with theory. Just looking for "real" evidence to back up assertation. My experience is speed is way overbet at speed favoring tracks and success requires passing many races--and then holding your nose and eating alot of chalk when you do bet. Not my style.

Did you happen to see the Lawyer Ron race and catch the odds of the lone speed winner?

[garyoz]

Did you happen to see the Lawyer Ron race and catch the odds of the lone speed winner?

Great hit!! Congratulations!! Of course Lawyer Ron is not too hard to take a stand against. Esp. away from OP.

Lone speed players remind me of ol' Matt Carothers on TVG. One note song.

Also, one race does not speak to problems of overbet early speed on speed favoring tracks. Merry-Go-Round Races. If you like them, knock yourself out!! If you can find the value, more power to you.

I just hate to see the Breeders Cup staged at that type of venue (actually getting back to the thread topic).

[Stevie Belmont]

Aly we here ya. Know the track like the back of my hand. Dont let some dude in the weeds in Ohio get ya down....



I said to me it was easier making money at speed tracks and my betting records support it.

The public, especially at tracks like Monmouth with a decent amount of square money on the weekends in particular, still underbets speed.

I find it far easier making money under these circumstances. Not looking for theoretical roi discussion prefer to live in the real and now

[ELA]

The style of racing, riding, and the track "bias" so to speak at Monmouth is somewhat unique -- similar to the very stereotypical, biased tracks others speak of (vis a vis the Aqueduct inner). The style of racing is such that jocks tend to be out and moving, rolling, etc. much sooner in the race. Several jocks, who have regularly ridden other circuits and Monmouth, have told me this over the course of time. Combine that with a sometimes dead rail and you get a lot of same ol' same ol'.

As far as the BC, the work will get done and the BC will not be moved. I just don't think it's feasible. Possible? Yes, remotely. Probable? No, not within reason. I may be overcomplicating the situation, but I just don't see it happening. The turf course is an intersting situation. I haven't walk the new turf course, but I had walked the old one several times. I know, with the Europeans mostly, they keep a very close eye on the turf course of the BC track. They do a great deal of due diligence and visit the track to walk, inspect, etc. the turf course -- and if they don't like what they see, experience, etc. -- they don't have anywhere near the problem we do in not coming. I don't know who specifically didn't show up because of it, and perhaps the truth is not known, but I think this might have occured with Lone Star.

I guess we will soon see.

Eric

[Kelso]

They changed the surface yet again this year (dirt) and the turf course was changed last year I beleive.


John,
It appears to me that there has been a considerably higher rate of wire-to-wire winners to date than was the case last year, particularly in turf routes. (In '06 I knew my money was gone if my horse led entering the far turn on the dirt ... and the grass was much friendlier to closers.) Has it seemed so to you, too?

Thank you.

[john del riccio]

John,
It appears to me that there has been a considerably higher rate of wire-to-wire winners to date than was the case last year, particularly in turf routes. (In '06 I knew my money was gone if my horse led entering the far turn on the dirt ... and the grass was much friendlier to closers.) Has it seemed so to you, too?

Thank you.

Kelso,

Absolutely, the first 3-4 weeks its was unbeleievable. They added a bunch of sand to the surface and slowed it down and the off the pace types did well for about a week. A couple of heavy rains and it turned back into speed conducive ckt. They have had 2 darrk days and no precip worth noting so I will anticipate (but one never knows what teh traick maintenance crew is up to) a deader, fairer surface today but by saturday, it'll be very different reagdless of rain .....

JOhn

[garyoz]

Aly we here ya. Know the track like the back of my hand. Dont let some dude in the weeds in Ohio get ya down....

Lived in NYC for 20 years--there is also this thing called simulcasting. My whole point is IMHO it isn't a good location for the Breeders Cup.

[alysheba88]

Great hit!! Congratulations!! Of course Lawyer Ron is not too hard to take a stand against. Esp. away from OP.

Lone speed players remind me of ol' Matt Carothers on TVG. One note song.

Also, one race does not speak to problems of overbet early speed on speed favoring tracks. Merry-Go-Round Races. If you like them, knock yourself out!! If you can find the value, more power to you.

I just hate to see the Breeders Cup staged at that type of venue (actually getting back to the thread topic).

So now I am a lone speed player? Unbelievable.

And I pointed out more than one race- which you ignored. If you look at Sunday's results, pp's and replays maybe you can learn something. But might be easier to cling to old beliefs.

Back to the thread, if the track is so unfair how come so many trainers have sent their three year olds to the Haskell? Over the years they have gotten the Derby winner, or best three year old more often than not. Horses who running style was not necessarily conduisive to a "biased track"

[alysheba88]

Lived in NYC for 20 years--there is also this thing called simulcasting. My whole point is IMHO it isn't a good location for the Breeders Cup.

And I have not read one single reason why not that make any sense. Most of the people against it seem to be from NY, lol

[garyoz]

From a racing point of view, I think Colonial has great and unbiased Turf and Main courses, nice sweeping turns (on a relative basis) and the ability to handle large fields. But, I doubt that they would ever be considered for the BC. For what it is worth (not much), while the stock is cheaper, I play CNL instead of MTH these days. I really enjoy the turf racing.

[Stevie Belmont]

I live in NJ and about 7 miles from Manhattan. I go to Monmouth as many times a year as I can. My take is this, do I think the Cup should be at Monmouth? Maybe maybe not. The upside is the money that will come in, who sees it is another question. Certain Restaurants and Hotels will do great. The track itself is small. Haskell day is mayhem, but on BC day it will be controlled mayhem. Other tracks have gotten it that maybe you could should have not. Belmont, Churchill, Gulfstream and the west coast tracks are the best places to run the operation, size of venue and the tracks are nice, but you can't have them there every year. My biggest beef is all the work they are doing down there for one day and I can't even get in. I could but im not going to try. So far let them do it. It's a great thing for Jersey. They spent a lot of money on a really wonderful turf course. The main track has it quirks and is a mile. I know Frankel does not care for a mile course in the Cup, and I see why, but it's once a year. Im going to support it. Lets see what happens. Hopefully all goes good or it will be at Belmont...I have no issue with that either, but I would not like to see Monmouth get humliated by blowing it.

[garyoz]

Back to the thread, if the track is so unfair how come so many trainers have sent their three year olds to the Haskell? Over the years they have gotten the Derby winner, or best three year old more often than not. Horses who running style was not necessarily conduisive to a "biased track"

Haskell is an alternative to The Travers for horses who had a rough Spring schedule. Also can duck the first line competition or find a field that you can walkover if you are a big horse--leaving you in a potentially better position for the BC not to mention the purse $$'s.

Not saying the track is "unfair" just predictably biased. I've enjoyed The Haskell and been to it several times, but I don't remember it being a particularly good betting race. Once again IMHO.

[Stevie Belmont]

The Haskell is three weeks before the Travers...A lot of horses go for both considering their both GI Million dollar purses. Travers obviously is more history. Point Given did the combo, Roman Ruler tried it, Bluegrass Cat and others.

Lion Heat was a steal at 9/5 when Dead Hard Ten went off the 4/5 fav one year. And Peace Rules paid well as Funny Cide took a lot of the loot. Both of the winners were the clear cut speeds of the race and tookem all the way, other then that, the prices for the winners have been slim. These two were overlays if want to call them that...I do and cashed nicely on them.

[1st time lasix]

Been to several recent Breeder's Cup weekends..... because i am fortunate enough to have a "connected" friend from the board of directors. I recieved another invitation months ago for this upcoming one in New Jersey. Have absolutely no interest in going. My host isn't going either. Poor time of the year to have the event North of the Mason/Dixon. The venue is small and the infrastructure is inadequate. I will be at my usual simulcast outlet. Of course I would never go to Gulfstream again after their fiasco. The changes there are a total disgrace when it comes to racing fans now.

[alysheba88]

Haskell is an alternative to The Travers for horses who had a rough Spring schedule. Also can duck the first line competition or find a field that you can walkover if you are a big horse--leaving you in a potentially better position for the BC not to mention the purse $$'s.

Not saying the track is "unfair" just predictably biased. I've enjoyed The Haskell and been to it several times, but I don't remember it being a particularly good betting race. Once again IMHO.

Numerous horseman over the years- from Van Berg to Baffert have praised the way Monmouth treats them for the big races, and how aggressive they are in getting the best horses to the Haskell.

Dont follow the ducking competition thing at all. The Haskell gets as good as fields as the Travers. And its not a prep for the Travers. With the current spreading of the races you can actually run in both.

None of what you said in regard "ducking competition for the BC" or walkover is supported by any recent history of the Haskell

[alysheba88]

Been to several recent Breeder's Cup weekends..... because i am fortunate enough to have a "connected" friend from the board of directors. I recieved another invitation months ago for this upcoming one in New Jersey. Have absolutely no interest in going. My host isn't going either. Poor time of the year to have the event North of the Mason/Dixon. The venue is small and the infrastructure is inadequate. I will be at my usual simulcast outlet. Of course I would never go to Gulfstream again after their fiasco. The changes there are a total disgrace when it comes to racing fans now.

What it comes down to is you have people down south who resent it being in the north and then you have those in NY resenting it being in NJ. That sums up about 95% of the complaints. With both sides repeating the "cramped" "small" nonsense.

Man you people are too much. Dont you ever get board of it at the same old tracks? I havent had a problem with one single BC site. Did I care about Woodbine, Lone Star, Arlington? Was a nice change. People who had no intention of going, who never go, are going on like this is the worst thing to ever happen in racing. I cant understand the number of negative complaints, especially those who were going to watch from home anyway.

What about giving it a chance first?

[garyoz]

Dont follow the ducking competition thing at all. The Haskell gets as good as fields as the Travers. None of what you said in regard "ducking competition for the BC" or walkover is supported by any recent history of the Haskell


Here are the win payoffs since 1997: 4.20, 5.80, 6.60, 2.60, 2.60, 11.40, 5.00, 3.40, 4.40. How do you define walkover?

[point given]

Kelso,

Absolutely, the first 3-4 weeks its was unbeleievable. They added a bunch of sand to the surface and slowed it down and the off the pace types did well for about a week. A couple of heavy rains and it turned back into speed conducive ckt. They have had 2 darrk days and no precip worth noting so I will anticipate (but one never knows what teh traick maintenance crew is up to) a deader, fairer surface today but by saturday, it'll be very different reagdless of rain .....

JOhn

Just watched a $22K claimer nw2l at monmouth today , wednesday. They went 21.2 , 43.4 finished in 1:09 and this is the SLOW Day ?? They have lost the track surface, just like in golf when they lose the greens and they are too fast, do to underwatering, mowing too close, etc. The track was playing fair the first few weeks and now it is virtually unplayable to me. How many trainers will scratch out do to the current surface ? The track super needs to be doing something about this .

BTW - On the Haskell. this year should be a little different since the BC classic will be run there, Curlin is on board, HarD Spun should love it , and Street Sense's trainer wants him to run on it too .

[alysheba88]

Here are the win payoffs since 1997: 4.20, 5.80, 6.60, 2.60, 2.60, 11.40, 5.00, 3.40, 4.40. How do you define walkover?

You think Point Given won in a walkover? According to your definition "payoff" it was. According to mine (exciting race with great finish) it wasnt.

By the way Point Given went on to win the Travers, and also Bluegrass Cat last year's winner, went to the Travers, as did Dixie Union who won the Haskell over Funny Cide. Ie; more proof (not opinion) that it isnt an either or decision over which race to run.

If anything it was Bernardini who took the easy way out last year by not running in the Haskell and then running in the Travers. Bluegrass Cat ran in Derby, Belmont and Haskell

[Stevie Belmont]

Peace Rules beat Funny Side....Dixie Union topped Captain Steve....

[alysheba88]

Peace Rules beat Funny Side....Dixie Union topped Captain Steve....

You are correct, should have know that was at both (and actually had both).

Funny Cide ran third.

[GaryG]

If anything it was Bernardini who took the easy way out last year by not running in the Haskell and then running in the Travers. Bluegrass Cat ran in Derby, Belmont and HaskellThe Travers is the oldest race run in the US and simply carries more prestige than the Haskell. There is no other 3yo race that is mentioned in the same breath with the TC races.

[alysheba88]

The Travers is the oldest race run in the US and simply carries more prestige than the Haskell. There is no other 3yo race that is mentioned in the same breath with the TC races.

I am not arguing the Haskell is more prestigious than the Haskell

You quoted a post where I mentioned horses who ran in both.

After you mentioned Haskell was the easy way out

[Ron]

Peace Rules beat Funny Side....Dixie Union topped Captain Steve....

What's the point of mispelling the names of horses? Dead Hard Ten? Lion Heat? Funny Side?

[Stevie Belmont]

Funny Cide was an error as was Lion Heart....Do me a favor and stay out of any post I make.

[Edward DeVere]

I am not arguing the Haskell is more prestigious than the Haskell


Probably a wise idea.

[gIracing]

What it comes down to is you have people down south who resent it being in the north and then you have those in NY resenting it being in NJ. That sums up about 95% of the complaints. With both sides repeating the "cramped" "small" nonsense.

Man you people are too much. Dont you ever get board of it at the same old tracks? I havent had a problem with one single BC site. Did I care about Woodbine, Lone Star, Arlington? Was a nice change. People who had no intention of going, who never go, are going on like this is the worst thing to ever happen in racing. I cant understand the number of negative complaints, especially those who were going to watch from home anyway.

What about giving it a chance first?

i'm actually looking forward to it.. I've never been to NJ... i've been to the newark airport on a connecting flight before but that's it. I plan on going to the BC this year and that's a good reason to!

you know where I want to see the BC?

[pandy]

If Monmouth is speed favoring, which it has been on some days that I watched, I would imagine that you could make a profit just betting on C.C. Lopez, who in my opinion is one of the best ever at getting a horse out of the gate, a great speed rider.

[o_crunk]

If Monmouth is speed favoring, which it has been on some days that I watched, I would imagine that you could make a profit just betting on C.C. Lopez, who in my opinion is one of the best ever at getting a horse out of the gate, a great speed rider.

i doubt it this year. chucky was kicking home a ton of that type on the inner over the winter and IMHO was getting liver mounts too.

the mth colony is just a tad better than aqu this year. with bravo, castro and lezcano getting the call on live mounts ahead of lopez.

as far as the bias and the 'new' surface goes...i think they're just saying that they changed the surface because it looks like the same old mth to me. the lawn this year has pretty much kept to it's debut form from last year....speedy types can steal easier there then on other turf courses.

[Edward DeVere]

Numerous horseman over the years- from Van Berg to Baffert have praised the way Monmouth treats them for the big races, and how aggressive they are in getting the best horses to the Haskell.


Yes, I would imagine that Baffert was quite pleased indeed with the way he was treated in regards to getting the best horses to the Haskell.

[Kelso]

Been to several recent Breeder's Cup weekends..... because i am fortunate enough to have a "connected" friend from the board of directors. I recieved another invitation months ago for this upcoming one in New Jersey. Have absolutely no interest in going. My host isn't going either.


So ... ummm, uhhhh ... does he want I should maybe, like, take his tickets off his hands? Ya know ... so he doesn't, like, lose his place in line for next year, or somethin'.

Just lemme know. Will be happy to help him out.