Oh to ---BEE SEVENTEEN ----again

[the_fat_man]

Here's an interesting horse, running in tomorrow's 2nd at BEL. An import, 4 year old, running 2nd time for Levine, stretching out to 1M, after her 1st start in close to a year.

Drops a nice 4F work from the gate at MTH ---best out of 33 horses that day.

Last out: slow start, swishing her tail on the backside as she lost ground early, widest on the turn, struggled to change, finished decently on the outside, once Luzzi got her out from behind horses.

She would appear to be a dead closer, off her last start, and is now stretching out. Of course, off her UK form, she's a stalker (although, she might be developing bad gate habits.) who doesn't appear to want more than 6F :bang: The good work indicates that she'll probably set or be with the pace. I typically prefer horses that are cutting back over those adding distance when they close in a shorter race but this one is definitely not typical.

I'm interested in seeing what Levine does with her: can he stretch her out; will she get out of the gate; will she show speed; will she take money.

And we have the usual suspects in the race:

1) Star Dixie: sucked up along the rail as if her life depended on it, and apparently didn't have room late ---sucks when the suckups can't suckup ALL the way around the track

2) Clifton Bay: closed into that NUMBING 26.78 4th qtr last out :lol:

3) The Clement 1ster:: doesn't need to be much

and the very interesting

4) Deliciously Wicked: in tight and pushed all the way around the track by Mr. Rojas last out ---she finished OK on the rail and
her 4th going 1 1/16th is not bad at all. If I were training this horse, I'd sprint her, then route her, then sprint her, then intermediate route her. I'd get it right sooner or later. And then I'd be Gary Sciacca (another fat dude).


Now, THESE maiden turf races are TRES interesting (and usually rewarding).

Let's break this one down, boys.

[toetoe]

My Dear Stout Fellow,

Right off the bat I want to like the 4 at 15/1 on the m.l., as she has the only "nobody" rider. As to Mott/Desormeaux's 12/1 5-hole, I seriously doubt she will go off at a big price.

[john del riccio]

Here's an interesting horse, running in tomorrow's 2nd at BEL. An import, 4 year old, running 2nd time for Levine, stretching out to 1M, after her 1st start in close to a year.

Drops a nice 4F work from the gate at MTH ---best out of 33 horses that day.

Last out: slow start, swishing her tail on the backside as she lost ground early, widest on the turn, struggled to change, finished decently on the outside, once Luzzi got her out from behind horses.

She would appear to be a dead closer, off her last start, and is now stretching out. Of course, off her UK form, she's a stalker (although, she might be developing bad gate habits.) who doesn't appear to want more than 6F :bang: The good work indicates that she'll probably set or be with the pace. I typically prefer horses that are cutting back over those adding distance when they close in a shorter race but this one is definitely not typical.

I'm interested in seeing what Levine does with her: can he stretch her out; will she get out of the gate; will she show speed; will she take money.

And we have the usual suspects in the race:

1) Star Dixie: sucked up along the rail as if her life depended on it, and apparently didn't have room late ---sucks when the suckups can't suckup ALL the way around the track

2) Clifton Bay: closed into that NUMBING 26.78 4th qtr last out :lol:

3) The Clement 1ster:: doesn't need to be much

and the very interesting

4) Deliciously Wicked: in tight and pushed all the way around the track by Mr. Rojas last out ---she finished OK on the rail and
her 4th going 1 1/16th is not bad at all. If I were training this horse, I'd sprint her, then route her, then sprint her, then intermediate route her. I'd get it right sooner or later. And then I'd be Gary Sciacca (another fat dude).


Now, THESE maiden turf races are TRES interesting (and usually rewarding).

Let's break this one down, boys.

Fats,

I think Street Bird has a pace edge vs. these and no one has faced better competition. Contessa is typically live when he rides Coa also. Deliciously wicked improved dramatically in her 2nd turf start with a very impressive late run. She's my sunshine also improved in her 2nd turf start and could get a piece.

Good Luck.

John

[speedking]

Levine's filly may have the Tomlinsons for turf and distance, but I'm not sure this one can improve enough off that last race and do it going long today. Still no lasix and that is not a good sign for Mr. Levine. Foreign figs indicate the last race was significantly better than any previous attempt and I'll only place underneath.

My key horse is the 9, Street Bird, 12/1 ML for Contessa. Raced well while hung wide from the 9 post last time and adds blinkers today while retaining Coa. Made a nice turn move while in the 4 path and weakened in the lane. As John said, this one should have a pace advantage, especially with the hood added and could take this field all the way. Strong Tomlinsons for grass and distance and this is an improving filly for Contessa.

9 over 1/4/6/7

[grahors]

I am basically a fig player.
Cool race to look at.
"Taulbot" SW gives a pretty good edge to Clifton.
Another SW gives the edge to Street.
My "ability time" SW goes with Bee.
Closing 1/4 last out goes to Delicously.

Ohhhh..Montie..which door to choose.
Us Libras have a tough time with decisions.....but..
Street to win at the MLO price. Box all 4 for exotics.

[the_fat_man]

Fats,

I think Street Bird has a pace edge vs. these and no one has faced better competition. Contessa is typically live when he rides Coa also. Deliciously wicked improved dramatically in her 2nd turf start with a very impressive late run. She's my sunshine also improved in her 2nd turf start and could get a piece.

Good Luck.

John

I always have interest in horses that make moves WITH the eventual winner of a race. SB moved with Prom Party last out and held decently till midstretch. She's stretching out even more and the extra distance might be a challenge for her.

[DanG]

Good contentious race Fats…

Interesting start to the early pick-4 and should spread out some cash…

1) Clifton Bay;

Routine 2nd race improvement puts her right there. Fats I don't get the 26 and change last 1/4 remark? That race went sub 24 by my information.

2) Samantha O;

X

3) She's My Sunshine;

Improving, but not using in pick-4

4) Deliciously Wicked;

Slightly inflated come home time and did not punch during money segment. Minor award.

5) Who Fu;

Always look about 6 times at 2TS, especially from a good barn. That Monmouth race is impossible to get a read on. Broke running and green into FT put her in the parking lot. Was not abused and that course was a billiard table. They went around like a parade.

6) Queens Full;

Trying to beat. Little pedigree and Clement is not cranking FT as much recently.

7) Bee Seventeen;

Very interesting…pedigree says stretch out will move up and that first run was nothing more than a public workout. Luzzi never really set the filly down and she finished willingly. Will use.

8) Star Dixie;

Perfect pocket trip last out and true she lacked room late, but I didn't she the explosive potential that I thought she would show. Trying to beat her.

9) Street Bird;

Clearly has attended the fastest paces and faced the best company. Still…I don't feel this course suits her exactly and will only use her defensively. She did have a right to be tired in her last, but her stride worries me.

Will use in the pick-4… [1, 5, 7] Minor coverage… [9]

Best of luck...

[headhawg]

Street Bird is a play for me @7-2 or better for the reasons that speed and John mentioned.

[john del riccio]

no matter who wins this race, this is education for us all, i learned a few things, especially what i mat have overlooked (from dans comments).


good luck.

john

[speedking]

Good contentious race Fats…

Interesting start to the early pick-4 and should spread out some cash…

1) Clifton Bay;

Routine 2nd race improvement puts her right there. Fats I don't get the 26 and change last 1/4 remark? That race went sub 24 by my information.

2) Samantha O;

X

3) She's My Sunshine;

Improving, but not using in pick-4

4) Deliciously Wicked;

Slightly inflated come home time and did not punch during money segment. Minor award.

5) Who Fu;

Always look about 6 times at 2TS, especially from a good barn. That Monmouth race is impossible to get a read on. Broke running and green into FT put her in the parking lot. Was not abused and that course was a billiard table. They went around like a parade.

6) Queens Full;

Trying to beat. Little pedigree and Clement is not cranking FT as much recently.

7) Bee Seventeen;

Very interesting…pedigree says stretch out will move up and that first run was nothing more than a public workout. Luzzi never really set the filly down and she finished willingly. Will use.

8) Star Dixie;

Perfect pocket trip last out and true she lacked room late, but I didn't she the explosive potential that I thought she would show. Trying to beat her.

9) Street Bird;

Clearly has attended the fastest paces and faced the best company. Still…I don't feel this course suits her exactly and will only use her defensively. She did have a right to be tired in her last, but her stride worries me.

Will use in the pick-4… [1, 5, 7] Minor coverage… [9]

Best of luck...

Dan

Good analysis, Dan, thanks. I agree entirely with your thoughts on 2-3-4-6-8, although I think the 4 might slip into the exotics at a price and many of Clements FTS are hitting the board while not winning.

The 1 is probably the horse to beat and the odds will reflect it.

I originally had the 3 as a possibility to get on board, but she had a perfect trip in last (1st lasix) and could not get the job done. May need a drop.

The 4 posted a good PF in her first grass contest while racing wide. Connections do not instill any confidence, but may get a decent groundsaving trip and close for a piece at a nice price.

I don't know what to make of the 5 either off that MTH race, but I don't like Fusaichi Pegasus as a turf sire and don't like NY shippers who go to MTH for an easier spot and then return to NY. Of course an exception must be made for an FTS, but I think this one will be overbet and I'll try to beat.

I do like the breeding on the 6 and think she can make a run, so I must use underneath.

Pedigree points to the 7 performing well today and this one may burn me. You are absolutely right about the last race, but I don't know how much improvement is going to be there today and that last race PF will not do it. Really would upgrade with Lasix.

Agree 100% about the 8. Just does nothave the explosiveness needed from this spot. Still could have won last despite trouble and will offer no value here.

Still think the 9 is the pace/value play here. Like Coa and blk on, despite the post. This one has a very strong pedigree for distance/surface and could take them all the way with a clean break.

good luck to all,

speedking

[DanG]

I don't know what to make of the 5 either off that MTH race, but I don't like Fusaichi Pegasus as a turf sire and don't like NY shippers who go to MTH for an easier spot and then return to NY. Of course an exception must be made for an FTS, but I think this one will be overbet and I'll try to beat.

BTW Speed: For what it’s worth Mott’s #5 was entered as a FTS in NY (on May 27th I believe), but was a late scratch. Still, as you said…certainly a leap of faith including / or excluding for that matter. :confused:

[Robert Fischer]

Unfortunatly I am looking at the 1 Clifton Bay to be the clear leader and favorite. Yet, if you're gonna beat him- now is the time. He will be well bet and could have hidden weakness, its possible...

Star Dixie looks good as well, but I think this one has a fair chance of dissapointing. I don't even want him in the win spot.

Bee Seventeen - this is a live contender. A little bit of a risk, has a real chance to do something here. 8.5 furlongs is about his natural distance in the states, and Levine has seemed to put a little speed in this one already. I am leaning underneath, who knows.

Queens Full - has been looking good for 2 years and is trained by Clement. Probably have to consider in all slots if you bet this race. The refrigerator-repair-man gets the ride;) .

Sunshine could get 3rd , Wicked isn't bad 3rd or 4th, Mott could easily get a small piece.

w 1,6,7
p 1,6,7,8
s 1,3,4,5,6,7,8

[the_fat_man]

Good contentious race Fats…

Interesting start to the early pick-4 and should spread out some cash…

1) Clifton Bay;

Routine 2nd race improvement puts her right there. Fats I don't get the 26 and change last 1/4 remark? That race went sub 24 by my information.


8) Star Dixie;

Perfect pocket trip last out and true she lacked room late, but I didn't she the explosive potential that I thought she would show. Trying to beat her.




It's what she ran the last split in.

What I don't get is why Delightful Lil, who did all the running (wide and early) in the Star Dixie race , isn't in THIS race but rather raced the other day going 1 1/4 (against better).

[DanG]

It's what she ran the last split in.

Fats,

We have a wide disagreement on her come home time. I don’t see how you arrived at 26 and change, but maybe I’m missing something…After about 3 minutes sleep thanks to Hollywood it’s certainly possible. :eek: :)

Go get em today...:ThmbUp:

[the_fat_man]

Here's my chart for the race with raw splits.

Of course, there could be a bug in my code.

[Robert Fischer]

per the bris pps

94 4/5 finish 8 furlongs
- 71 6 furlongs

[the_fat_man]

I just realized what the difference is, Dan

The charts have the final time as 1:37.82

looking at the PPs for the race, the final time is 1:34 & 4/5

[Robert Fischer]

I just realized what the difference is, Dan

The charts have the final time as 1:37.82

looking at the PPs for the race, the final time is 1:34 & 4/5


what does the replay say? either one could be off

[DanG]

I just realized what the difference is, Dan

The charts have the final time as 1:37.82

looking at the PPs for the race, the final time is 1:34 & 4/5
HDW / HTR had it in 1:34 and change…:confused:

Well…At least Shug gave us part of a subway token…:D

Fats…I think I saw why Luzzi didn’t drop the hammer on Levine’s filly in her first start in the states…SHE’S NUTS!!! :eek:

She got in a vice (of her own doing really) from that angled shoot today, but I honestly think she may need a straight jacket or a visit to Dr. Melfi. As you said she tired to impersonate a helicopter with her tail in her first start and again today.

PS: After watching the walkover in the 3rd just now…Can you say 9 length improvement from Kimmel to Contessa with the #4 Americanus!!! 2nd off a claim and second straight major move up…Sharp…

Makes the Jimmy Jerkins gelding who beat him (Grand Champion) look double tough exciting that heat BTW.

[the_fat_man]

HDW / HTR had it in 1:34 and change…:confused:

Well…At least Shug gave us part of a subway token…:D

Fats…I think I saw why Luzzi didn’t drop the hammer on Levine’s filly in her first start in the states…SHE’S NUTS!!! :eek:

She got in a vice (of her own doing really) from that angled shoot today, but I honestly think she may need a straight jacket or a visit to Dr. Melfi. As you said she tired to impersonate a helicopter with her tail in her first start and again today.

PS: After watching the walkover in the 3rd just now…Can you say 9 length improvement from Kimmel to Contessa with the #4 Americanus!!! 2nd off a claim and second straight major move up…Sharp…

Makes the Jimmy Jerkins gelding who beat him (Grand Champion) look double tough exciting that heat BTW.

What I need to do is start noting the time from the OTB feed. Clearly, I can't depend on accurate times from the charts. ALthough, as everything else (other than CB and the winner) back up significantly the last split, it's safe to assume that it was FAST.

I had an interest in Smash 'em Sammy in the 3rd. But only at a price and with a full field. If you want to see what a horse on SKIIS looks like, check out his stretch run. Not saying he threatens the winner with a straight run but he's alot closer. Either the horse ABSOLUTELY cannot stand being touched by the whip or Castellano was doing his best C Hill impersonation.

Speaking of the devil, guess who I like in the 4th? :bang:

[DanG]

Either the horse ABSOLUTELY cannot stand being touched by the whip or Castellano was doing his best C Hill impersonation.

Speaking of the devil, guess who I like in the 4th? :bang:
Purely a guess, but #1...Top of the Sevens?

I can feel you tensing up with Mr. Hill...draws the the fence in a turf sprint with a large feild. Don’t forget your Mylanta. ;)

[the_fat_man]

:lol:

Hill is never in a hurry. Not that it would've made a difference here.

And, the key to not tensing is only betting when you get FAIR odds.

Hill did get me home with Bon Marie, when Garcia couldn't (and the odds on Nadjima were too low for me to bet when he blew that race), so, it's all good.

[bigmack]

Hey Chubs - Equibase now has built in replays within the charts. It's $50 unlimited for 3 months. Sounds like a heck of deal. I set you up an account and you watch more Cali Racing?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/chart.jpg

[the_fat_man]

Not following, Mack. I don't think those replays have headons, btw.