Velocity Machine - Race Projection Salvatore Mile - Saturday Monmouth Race9

[Robert Fischer]

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/6919/salvatoremile623monr9lx2.th.gif (http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/6919/salvatoremile623monr9lx2.gif)
(click to enlarge)

Analysis - Here I have upgraded the projections a little and added subjective lengths for jockeys and distance. These adjustments were minor ranging from John Velasquez (2lengths) to Mario Madrid(0.2 lengths) and can be seen below the graph. Gotcha Gold recieved 2.5 lengths for his distance cut-back, no others recieved distance adjustment. Note that at the mile distance and stakes class, I am using the last 4 furlongs as the "late-kick" segment as I believe that more accurately reflects the race shape than a generic 2 furlongs.


Lawyer Ron as expected rates highest. A bit unexpected is that Dutrow's Chucker rates just 2.5 lengths behind Lawyer Ron while leading 2nd choice ml Indy Wind by 7 lengths.

free Bris PPs for the Salvatore Mile http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_78335.pdf


velocity machine Explanation:
The idea is to split a race up into 2 segments. The "cruising segment" and the "late-kick" segment. The length of each segment will depend on the length and type of race. For this 8 furlong mile stakes, I am using 4furlongs for the cruising segment and the final 4 furlongs for the late-kick segment. For this experimental attempt, I manually assigned positions for the cruising segment of the race by handicapping each horse. The late-kick segment was calculated using the best 2 final fraction velocities of each horse's last 3 races in an attempt to quantify closing talent. The late-kick segement was then converted to lengths and combined with the cruising segment to attempt to project today's contenders. The graph reflects number of lengths better than todays worst contender.

[Robert Fischer]

very slight change - I noticed the spreadsheet wasn't giving credit for Gotcha Gold's 2.5length distance-adjustment

corrected projection.
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/6906/salvatoremile623monr9ki4.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/6906/salvatoremile623monr9ki4.gif)
(click to enlarge)





Wagering Strategy-
Trifecta 35 w/ 35 w/124 = $6

If win odds on 5(Chucker) > 4-1 Then $2 win on 5 AND $2 straight trifecta 3(lawyerron) 5(chucker) 1(indywind)

[Robert Fischer]

Ok .. Looking at the tote the crowd is heavy win on Lawyer Ron as expected and in spite of a little win money thrown on the 5, public is ignoring the Dutrow horse #5 chucker in exactas.

In addition to the above wagers in post2 with:

$20 exacta box 3,5 = $40
$1 exacta box 1,3,5= $6
$2 exacta 5-3 = $2
$2 place on $5 = $2

[o_crunk]

horse for course stole it!

[Yoshiii]

#2 won, not really as you thought? :p

[Robert Fischer]

o_crunk - sure did
Yoshii - welcome to the board

The top 3 finishers each bested their last 3 closing-kicks for the final 4 furlongs of the Salvatore Mile.

Per raw velocities
#5 Chucker actually ran to form(-0.4 feet/second slower than his projected 4 furlongs). Gotcha Gold improved dramatically over any recent performance(2.6ft/second faster and his open lead at the 4furlongs), Lawyer Ron actually improved(1.6 ft/s faster) and Indy Wind also improved(1.3 ft/s faster).


last 4 furlongs
Gotcha Gold 54.08 ft/s ! :p
Lawyer Ron 55.43 ft/s!!! :eek:
Indy Wind 54.26 ft/s!
Chucker 53.07 ft/s womp womp

everyone improved or maybe the track itself was very fast and Chucker regressed.

[the_fat_man]

Not typically a good idea to OVERLOOK a horse that, in a longer race last out, had the lead at the penultimate call, which also happens to be today's distance.


Then again, the 'velocity machine' is all about numbers.

[Robert Fischer]

Not typically a good idea to OVERLOOK a horse that, in a longer race last out, had the lead at the penultimate call, which also happens to be today's distance.


Then again, the 'velocity machine' is all about numbers.

I think you have a good point here. I generally am not too heavy on numbers in handicapping, but I am trying here. I would like to think the numbers can help a little bit! On paper this looked like a pretty straight forward race. 1 mile distance and we have established form for everyone, and only 5 entrants. Im trying here TFM :D

But everyone ran new tops???

Even when I use Gotcha Gold's last race run to the mile, his 4furlong late-kick segment in the Frisk Me Now is only 51.36 ft/second =((660*4))/(95.4-44 )
he ran the last 4 today in 54.07.
I understand that isn't your point.


I think it is interesting that the top 3 improved in terms of raw numbers. I doubt most figure makers will say that Lawyer Ron improved here. May hear the term bounce or regression... on raw numbers that wasn't the case.

From a race-watcher's perspective it looks like Gotcha Gold got away on an easy lead and carried his speed well in a near top effort. Any opinions??

Trying to make sense of the raw numbers - Maybe it is safe to guess that the similar improvement from indy wind and Lawyer Ron represent a faster track (about 1.5 ft/second Faster over the last 4 furlongs??)...
Sort of like projecting a "par" using Lawyer Ron and Indy as running about to form...
This would indicate a true improvement from Gotcha Gold of about 1 ft/s and a true regression from Chucker of about 1.9 ft/s and Take The Bluff of about 1.5.ft/s. Maybe more reasonable in terms of numbers from what we can see happened.

[GaryG]

By my figures the winner cut out an incredibly fast pace in his loss to Indy Wind. It was an absolute set up for Indy and a superhuman (equine?) effort by GG. I wish I could say I bet him but I just watched it.