Friday four at Churchill

[bellsbendboy]

Since "Big John" took this 6yo for $12,5 and shortened him up he has been hickory with his only loss to 10 for 12 win machine. He stretches to the flat mile here but using generally accepted handicapping principles he should win at even money or so.

9) Going with another short priced single ( I decide what days to play and only cancel if the track is sealed) here with NOLA STAR. Granddaughter of Storm Cat is extremely quick and the rail is set in lane two today. Some cheap speed off the fence may help, but Raffie on the reride is a huge bonus and he is very good with turf speed (Intercontinental et. al.) and most off these want to make one run.

10) CRAFTY MELISSA makes the biggest drop in racing from allowance to conditioned claimers and will try to take these gate to wire under leading rider LepAroux. Call Me Eppi oddly raced out of class last time and drops here and Bellafina who would be no surprise.

First foal from a dam who is a MSW on turf of some $350k by top turf sire Theatrical catches our eye and she is SEXY LIBRARIAN. Both starts at seven eighths on the poly, one as a 2yo. Carroll good with this kind and Castanon aboard for nice work last week. Also Loverly and Estrella De Oro, the former a half to Dat You Miss Blue and the latter has three excellent efforts in in seven tries and should relish getting back to the lawn. Lousy, sucker sequence. BBB

[bellsbendboy]

Rotten sequence brought out some rotten cappin but a big score was not totally out of reach. To wit: A free square in leg one was followed up by very poor decisions.

Race nine featured our single NOLA STAR who had been on the bridle every race she has run. I would guess some thirty percent of thoroughbreds act the same way and they quickly drop in class to find their level, or as in this case give way at some point in the race. The owners have too much in the horse to drop and/or the trainers do not know any better.

The sour grapes comes from the third place finisher Bobby's Babe who at first glance looked a standout; and at some thirty to one is what the vertical boys want in any sequence. First turf, OUTSTANDING turf only pedigree and a huge weight advantage. Foley is very good first lawn, second and third dams were champions and the capable apprentice up. Two of BBB's esoteric strengths, gleaned over five decades of tearing up tickets, are understanding sophomores cannot give spring weight and turf configurations trump form, class, etc.... yet this daughter of Smart Strike was not on the ticket?????????

A small snippet, of the endless stream of data studied for this sequence contained the following report concerning Bobby Babes' work on turf 4/24/07. Paraphrased it read " looked lousy, with a choppy stride and her head straight up while not caring for the grass". Of course, since she worked on the lawn, she had to be nominated for a stake (Edgewood) and the deadline was two weeks after the work. Moral, if a single piece of data does not look good and cannot be corroborated with other evidence: overlook that negative, especially if the price is right. Bobby closed stoutly and was beaten a half and a neck at 26.60 to one.

Leg three went as expected and the nightcap featured six who could win and they ran one thru five and eighth. Johnny Ward won it and we went into detail in our last posted pick four on the nola board last Sunday, regarding our stormy relationship with that conditioner. This was a horrible field although some will come out of this heat and be competitive in Henderson next month. Fittingly, we had sauerbraten and wine for dinner last night. At any rate, on to the next sequence which will be the last four at CD Sunday, oddly, all at six furlongs. Good cappin. BBB