What win % can I best hope for in a large sample.

[Fastracehorse]

Hi Einstein's,

I'm a good handicapper and I think I have innovated a speed figure that is better than anything on the market.

Of course pure speed fig playing is a losing propositoin. That is why handicapping is the essence of picking winners.

However, I have never created a database large enough to determine what type of win % I can hope for with my best plays.

If I was to flat win bet, which I don't, what is the highest win % I could possibly hope for with my prime plays??

Is 60 % out of the question??

I'm a p-3 player and will be tracking my bets [ diligently ] for the first time.

If I know the approximate probabilites of winning each leg I will know what return I should demand.

Remember, horses break poorly [ have had alot of those this year ]; horses trip poorly [ have had alot of those too ]; horses run bad [ I don't know how that happens ]; and; I bet bad horses [ uggh! ].

I hope U Einstein's get my point.

I am not illiterate so don't approach this post in that manner please------if U are kind enough to respond.

Thanx,

fffastt

[ranchwest]

Based purely on speed figures, most people I've talked with seem to think about 28% is pretty good if you have no other criteria. All races, all tracks, all seasons, etc.

[Fastracehorse]

Thanx,

But my method isn't purely based on speed figs.

I just happen to have a very good fig that gives me some nice overlays.

That stat is interesting though.

fffastt