Power Of Early Speed?

[InFront]

Has anyone read Steve Klein's book "The Power Of Early Speed"? I did a forum search but did not see much about this. While I understand the concept of this book I do not see ANY LOGIC in it. Here is a guy that had access to a 200,000 race database which he used to test the "ACTUAL FACTOR" of horses leading at the 1st call of each race. He discovered that these actual leaders won 28% of all races run and showed a +50% ROI. Now what? What good is this when this is based on what I call an actual past factor not a predicted future factor.

This is like saying let's test how horses that where actually leading at the stretch call did. Even better how they did at the finish call. I can tell you they won 100% of all races run and showed a +600% ROI. But since we can't predict exactly what horse will be leading that the 1st call, stretch call or finish call in all races run this kind of info is useless. Klein dedicates most of a 300 page book in breaking down these early lead horses by track, trainer, distance, etc. which is still useless info. A small section of the book he described his Klein Point system that helps determine which horse it may be which I think does no better than using the published Quirin points. I have tested these Quirin points in tons of ways through 60,000 races and never seen much in them so I really doubt if Klein Points do any better overall.

Why didn't he run his Klein Point system through those same 200,000 races to see how accurate it was at actually predicting the 1st call leader, what their win% was and roi% was? This kind of info would have maybe been more useful than filling up 300 pages of wasted pages. Do all these guys write books about nothing just to make money? Any opinion on this book or using or predicting early speed as a factor?

[Gibbon]

This site has an advanced search option. Klein's book has been debated at length. here (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24472&highlight=Klein) and here (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26345&highlight=Klein) and here (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24897&highlight=Klein) .

Bottom line, results appear no different than traditional speed points.







____________________________
The Internet has vastly expanded the number of players who claim to be winners....On the typical handicapping message board, almost nobody admits they're consistent losers. ~ Barry Meadow

[InFront]

Thanks. Went through you links and read all post there about Klein, his speed points and his book. As I thought pretty much garbage all around. Looks like his theory, book and point method works no better than Quirin stuff. Would be nice to predict that early leader a high% of races but it I guess ain't gonna happen.

[46zilzal]

Thanks. Went through you links and read all post there about Klein, his speed points and his book. As I thought pretty much garbage all around. Looks like his theory, book and point method works no better than Quirin stuff. Would be nice to predict that early leader a high% of races but it I guess ain't gonna happen.
Yes you can with an evaluation of energy distribution.

[cj]

I don't see energy distribution ALONE predicting the leader a high percentage of the time. There should be some velocity mixed in as well. I may run balls to the wall going 100 meters while the Olympic champion just cruises for 50 then turns it on. Guess what, I'm never going to be in front despite my higher %E.

[Tom]

I thought you said energy distribution was not the same as postitional pace?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like the part listing jockeys and early speed preference.

[GaryG]

I like the part listing jockeys and early speed preference.The BRIS Track Stats books break down jockey performance into many categories including "best running style".

[46zilzal]

I don't see energy distribution ALONE predicting the leader a high percentage of the time.

Strange, I never said alone did I?

[bigmack]

With all the variables to consider in handicapping a race there are two camps that like to DRILL TO THE GROUND their single minded mantra's. Bounce theorists & supposed energy distribution guru's.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/meditation.jpg

[cj]

Strange, I never said alone did I?

Energy would be a secondary factor at best for predicting the leader. How a horse expends his energy doesn't matter nearly as much as how fast he breaks and how fast he can run.

The break is something that can never really be predicted, but has a HUGE impact on which horse will lead.

[46zilzal]

A lot of horses breaking quickly do it randomly at best.

Energy distribution usually has to be tied to total energy, but not always on days when the bias is there, it is ALL distribution without much realtionship to total energy. Happens often enough to be profitable. Call it Style over Substance.

[GaryG]

Thanks Mack.....just lost a tough one and needed the laugh. :jump:

[Overlay]

Thanks. Went through you links and read all post there about Klein, his speed points and his book. As I thought pretty much garbage all around. Looks like his theory, book and point method works no better than Quirin stuff. Would be nice to predict that early leader a high% of races but it I guess ain't gonna happen.

It's not so much predicting with certainty which horse will get the early lead. (Even Quirin acknowledged that most horses can be inconsistent from race to race in that regard due to changing factors like post position, track contours, and (as cj mentioned) the uncertainty of the scramble for the lead right after the start of the race. That's why Quirin based speed points on three ratable races.) But Quirin's data showed that, even at tracks normally regarded as more friendly to "closers", horses that were able to get to the front early won at a far higher rate than could be attributed to random chance. Horses running third or better at the first call at 63 of the 64 tracks Quirin surveyed in Winning at the Races won a minimum of 40% more than their "fair share" of races. (The figure for the 64th track (Sacramento) was "only" 20% higher.) And Quirin also showed that speed points as he devised them were effective in predicting the probability that a horse would be among those early leaders, because horses (even though they may not exhibit the exact same running pattern in every race) do have preferred running styles. I think the key (as with any other handicapping factor) is viewing speed points (or any early speed measure) from a standpoint of probability rather than certainty, and as one part of the handicapping process rather than as a stand-alone indicator.

[Cratos]

A lot of horses breaking quickly do it randomly at best.

Energy distribution usually has to be tied to total energy, but not always on days when the bias is there, it is ALL distribution without much realtionship to total energy. Happens often enough to be profitable. Call it Style over Substance.


The measurement of a horse’s energy is how long it can sustain the output of power it is exerting to attain a certain velocity. The power being exerted is the rate at which the horse does work (the application of a force over a distance). A long striding horse with the same stride rate as a short striding horse over the same distance will always have the energy advantage because it will do less work. How fast a horse leaves the gate is acceleration which is a function of how much force is being applied.

[Greyfox]

Early Speed and need to lead will point you to who to toss out a Hollywood,
usually. Gotta reverse your thinking at that track.

[Pell Mell]

Energy would be a secondary factor at best for predicting the leader. How a horse expends his energy doesn't matter nearly as much as how fast he breaks and how fast he can run.

The break is something that can never really be predicted, but has a HUGE impact on which horse will lead.

Back in the fifties there was a successful betting outfit called the "Cincinnati Speed Boys" and I used to watch them operate at Monmouth Park. This was in the days before computers and they would have a guy stationed at the $100. window and another one who would stand on a folding chair where he could see the starting gate and the window. The guy on the chair would glass the gate with his arm up and if their horse broke good he would drop his arm, and since there was a couple seconds of delay from the time the bell rang till the machines locked, they would be able to get a few tickets punched. I talked to them and was informed that the game was won or lost at the gate. If the horse didn't break on top it was no bet. These guys were around for a long time and I watched them cash a ton of tickets so I guess they didn't try to guess who would break well, they didn't bet till they actually knew who broke out.

[Kelso]

since there was a couple seconds of delay from the time the bell rang till the machines locked, they would be able to get a few tickets punched.


This is a prime example of why all pools should be locked - to all wagering sources - before the first horse is loaded into the starting gate. The basic integrity of the game reflects very poorly from it.

[cj]

This is a prime example of why all pools should be locked - to all wagering sources - before the first horse is loaded into the starting gate. The basic integrity of the game reflects very poorly from it.

I agree, but I don't think there is a delay anymore like there was in the fifties.

[misscashalot]

Power Of Early Speed?
Has anyone read Steve Klein's book "The Power Of Early Speed"? I did a forum search but did not see much about this. While I understand the concept of this book I do not see ANY LOGIC in it. Here is a guy that had access to a 200,000 race database which he used to test the "ACTUAL FACTOR" of horses leading at the 1st call of each race. He discovered that these actual leaders won 28% of all races run and showed a +50% ROI. Now what? What good is this when this is based on what I call an actual past factor not a predicted future factor.

Never read book. did he include winning firsters? If he did then his results contain a dark hole (how would you know if a firster was going to show early speed?).

[Cratos]

[QUOTE=What good is this when this is based on what I call an actual past factor not a predicted future factor.[/QUOTE]

Excellent statement

[InFront]

No I didn't see studies or a breakdown group of only FTS in the book. Basically all his breakdowns are based on how the horse finished the race that was the actual early leader in the race. So his studies are all based on after the effect NOT BEFORE which is what I meant by actual factor not predicted factor. So this early leader could be a FTS or a 3-legged horse which didn't matter to his massive study of early leaders. Just don't see the whole point of a wasted 300 page book.

[cnollfan]

I thought it was a pretty good book. Interesting stats on how the importance of speed varies by class. I have found Klein Speed Points to be useful on occasion.

[46zilzal]

I thought it was a pretty good book. Interesting stats on how the importance of speed varies by class. I have found Klein Speed Points to be useful on occasion.
Less gifted animals cannot carry speed very long. The best can turn it on and off like a swtich (Unbridled, Turkoman, and the best example of all FOREGO). Secretariat just ran them off their feet in long continuous moves, not short quick manueuvers, but then he was in a class all by himself and should not be referred to as a comparative.

Energy balance is not as black and white when one moves into the best animals. ADAPTATION to whatever pace is thrown at them differentiates the great from the good.

[thelyingthief]

Energy would be a secondary factor at best for predicting the leader. How a horse expends his energy doesn't matter nearly as much as how fast he breaks and how fast he can run.

i have made outstanding profits on energy models at times. not to the exclusion of all else, three legged animals were usually a toss.

tlt