Scrambling Handicapper

[BigJake]

I have really hit a wall in my handicapping, and when I feel like I am really broken down I always like to show my ignorance by posting something here that seems stupid to every other handicapper that knows anything. I use a mixture of speed and pace figures to narrow may selections. First, I would like to here some advice on record keeping. What software, formulas, ect. . are people using to keep track of there wagers? Secondly, how many people here are using complecated databases and formulas. I thought it was only a few in the begining, but now I think everyone is. Any help is appreciated.

Jake

[DanG]

I have really hit a wall in my handicapping, and when I feel like I am really broken down I always like to show my ignorance by posting something here that seems stupid to every other handicapper that knows anything. I use a mixture of speed and pace figures to narrow may selections. First, I would like to here some advice on record keeping. What software, formulas, ect. . are people using to keep track of there wagers? Secondly, how many people here are using complecated databases and formulas. I thought it was only a few in the begining, but now I think everyone is. Any help is appreciated. Jake
Just a quick blast / observation here Jake if I may…

1st…You have a great chance to hang in with this tough game because your honest with yourself.

My experience is for every 100 players…5 “really” keep records. Of those five…2 “actually” do. :liar: It is as much of a key to success as any one move you can make. It is not easy or fun to keep accurate records while losing, but you must if you really want to succeed.

As far as record keeping programs I have made my own, but I have seen “Bettor Keep Track” by Gordon Pine in action and it’s a very good application. (If anyone produces one and advertises here I apologize, I’m just not aware of it.)

Here is a link…

http://www.desertsea.com/gpine.html#bettor

Concerning “complicated” software / databases etc…Yes, there are some very sophisticated algorithms being applied to horseracing right now. Without sounding like a commercial, HTR is my choice because it does much more than the grunt work and allows exporting which is critical for me.

As with all software tools it is ultimately the user who decides results. The best real time apps I have seen weren’t always produced by a “programmer” per say. I feel a great horseplayer with limited computer skills can very often outperform a limited handicapper with great programming skills. (Then again I am prejudice because most can program much better than I, but I will work with Access until the cows come home to make it work.) :bang:


I would avoid major alterations in your game, until you begin keeping records for a significant time. If you choose to go with the great software available or develop your own database, you can do that simultaneously with your current game.

Your records might show that for the last three years you have struggled during this period which can be for a variety of reasons. Such as…




You’re not projecting enough improvement or decline in young animals.
Your circuit of choice has a transitional bias that works against your strengths.
Most probably…it’s the natural ebbs and flows and you’re just getting enough favorable pictures at the key moments.
Regardless…That’s a long winded way of saying…Your on the right track with record keeping and this time next year instead of posting your thoughts, you will check your files and be able to anticipate better times ahead.

All the best and a Happy Fathers Day to all those dad’s who showed their children the ropes of this great game. :ThmbUp:

[Donnie]

Dan-
As to your last line....last night I became one of those Dads. I took the family out to the track last night and spent some time with a friend and my son trying to teach them "visual handicapping in the paddock". I musta done ok. My twelve year old, Sam, went to the paddock between races and "reported back" what he saw and his impressions. He was spot on in nearly EVERY race! One race he even came back with the trifecta. He may be hooked....says he can't wait till we go again. But his newly trained eye worked fairly well. Without knowing anything else about horseracing, I hate to try to start teaching him about trainers and pace and speed and weight and jockeys and distance switches and surface changes and layoffs and 3 yr olds vs. 4 yr olds and claiming races and class and Graded winners and.....(I think you get the idea!).
Meanwhile, my 18 yr old went to the "gentlemen's club" for the first time last night.
Happy Father's Day, y'all! :cool:

[Zman179]

Believe me Jake, you are not alone. Yesterday, I let a $1000 superfecta for a buck slide right through my hands and today I couldn't cash a ticket. I've been on a very long losing streak. Not only that, but my two weeks of vacation sucked big time. Didn't get the opportunity to leave town. Worst vacation ever.

One thing that'll be good for the soul: remember this bad time when you go through a winning streak.

[ranchwest]

I have really hit a wall in my handicapping, and when I feel like I am really broken down I always like to show my ignorance by posting something here that seems stupid to every other handicapper that knows anything. I use a mixture of speed and pace figures to narrow may selections. First, I would like to here some advice on record keeping. What software, formulas, ect. . are people using to keep track of there wagers? Secondly, how many people here are using complecated databases and formulas. I thought it was only a few in the begining, but now I think everyone is. Any help is appreciated.

Jake

Jake, I think you're just experiencing the humility that handicapping so often provides most of us. One day I'm a pure genius, the next day I couldn't find a winner in the charts. It happens.

Buy a program, write a program, use Excel, whatever, but keeping records really helps me and I think it would probably help you, too.

Your records can be as simple or as complex as you want. Any accurate records are better than no records. I do suggest that you watch closely which tracks are your best profit tracks. That's a big one for me.

[Tom]

I'm gonna suggest someting different - that a break.
Take a week or two off from handicapping. Go to movies, go bowling, baseball games, fishing - unwind, de-stress. The horsies will be there when you get back. You need to get your head back in the game. Maybe a copuple days is all you need - but don't come back until you feel like you want to.

Plan a liitle about what you want to do when you come back - keep simple records - win wages, place, exactas, etc.

Excel is fine - make a tab for each type of wager.

[Pell Mell]

I'm gonna suggest someting different - that a break.
Take a week or two off from handicapping. Go to movies, go bowling, baseball games, fishing - unwind, de-stress. The horsies will be there when you get back. You need to get your head back in the game. Maybe a copuple days is all you need - but don't come back until you feel like you want to.

Plan a liitle about what you want to do when you come back - keep simple records - win wages, place, exactas, etc.

Excel is fine - make a tab for each type of wager.

Right on! I've been preaching this for years, when things start to go south, take some time off. This business goes in cycles and the best thing one can do is recognize when you are in a slump and go do something to refresh your mind and that means don't even think horses for awhile. I usually go fishing for a week or two.:(

[BigJake]

WOWIE, WOW, WOW

Thanks for the support guys. First, let me say I am a very small time player. No suppers lost here. My pride is just beat down more than anything. I usually bet to win, and my win horses place. I get conservative and bet to place, and my place horse shows. I bet the exacta and get 1-3 instead of 1-2. Everyone has got the same stories, I hope :) I just want to try and figure out what sucessful players are doing. I know they are keeping records, but I want to know what kind and things like that. Also how many people are using the things I should've learned while sleeping through my ECON classes. Keep the help coming.

Jacob

[DanG]

Dan-
As to your last line....last night I became one of those Dads. I took the family out to the track last night and spent some time with a friend and my son trying to teach them "visual handicapping in the paddock". I musta done ok. My twelve year old, Sam, went to the paddock between races and "reported back" what he saw and his impressions. He was spot on in nearly EVERY race! One race he even came back with the trifecta. He may be hooked....says he can't wait till we go again. But his newly trained eye worked fairly well. Without knowing anything else about horseracing, I hate to try to start teaching him about trainers and pace and speed and weight and jockeys and distance switches and surface changes and layoffs and 3 yr olds vs. 4 yr olds and claiming races and class and Graded winners and.....(I think you get the idea!).
Meanwhile, my 18 yr old went to the "gentlemen's club" for the first time last night.
Happy Father's Day, y'all! :cool:
Good man Donnie, Salute!!! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

Those are memories that get handed down to your grandchildren.

My father literally vanished when I was 6, so that honor was performed by my older brother. I took him to lunch today and if my “real” father is reading this…Your eldest son stepped up to the plate and played the role you didn’t have the guts to. :ThmbDown:

Sorry…back on topic…

PS: Good advice in “taking a break”, but I apply that in a somewhat unconventional fashion. I almost never take a break after losses, because my records show they don’t last. I do however take an occasional extended break after a nice score. I look at it as a reward for all the work and I try and look at losing streaks as just an inevitable / unfortunate part of doing business.

[Dan H]

I use three forms (pieces of paper) when I go to the track (or OTB). None of these forms make we taller, smarter, or a better handicapper. But ... they may give you a spark ...

I created the Pick 3 form from a betting strategy used by a popular member of this site. I created the Scramble form from a popular West Coast Handicapping rag. I created the last form to keep track of my bets for the IRS ... a boy can dream ???

I can scan completed forms (used in vain) for anyone who wants to see some pretty bad handicapping records.

Dan H

I'm not sure if my Microsoft Word docs (forms) were upoaded, but I followed PA's prompts for Attaching Files.

[Edward DeVere]

if you want to know what you're up against in trying make a profit at the track, I highly recommend "The New Expert Handicappers" by James Quinn (1989).

The competition is fierce, and, due to the onerous takeout, only a few can win.

[Dave Schwartz]

Big,

Permit me to offer a slightly different suggestion.

Instead of trying to improve your handicapping, why don't you work on your wagering?

First, do you have a handle on how to wager? If you don't, then I would suggest starting there. Are you a win bettor? Exactas? Trifectas? Multi-race? At which of those wagers do you do the worst? The best? Do you know?

Second, if you do feel that you have a good handle on wagering, then look at the kinds of races you play. Do you do better at some kinds of races than others? Do you know?

Third, I'd look at the tracks that you play. Are there tracks you do poorly at?


My point is that there is a wealth of information that you you may or may not have that you need to have. This is where I would recommend you go next.

BTW, #1 is huge for most players.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Light]

Stepping back from wagering is only the first step to your recovery. Do not think lady luck will smile on you for abstaining from gambling when you come back to play. In fact, you may be a bit rusty and a worse handicapper now. Like a horse,you need to prep for your comeback.

Step 2. Now that you've cleared your head,its time to face yourself.(If you're up to it) Why did you lose? What did you do wrong? Unless you look at these unpleasant questions honestly,you are bound to repeat those failures and not learn from your mistakes.

Step 3. Write down what you find out. I use to write them on paper but find it more accessible and readable in MS Word. Also easier to insert, edit and keep track of comments than handwritten.

Step 4. You're still not ready. Play on paper. Dont freak out if you pick a 10-1 shot and he wins but you were not playing for real. Pace yourself. Plenty more of that later.Dont let a couple of nice winners fool you into thinking you're ready.Thats not the point. Right now you are trying to develop a winning strategy.

Step 5. Time to test the waters. Playing for real is psychologically different than on paper. Do not play if you are stressed or have other things on your mind. Pass races you dont like. Don't spread yourself too thin trying to play 12 tracks and 80 races.Play small.Concentrate on your strategy.Watch it work.A small spark can start a major fire. Be the spark and you will catch on fire.

Epilogue. Your fire will inevitably go out as your ego sabotages your success. Its a natural human condition. The cycle restarts. Recognizing when playing from ego or playing from skill will save you some grief. Why? Because when you play from ego and lose,the ego gets hurt. When you play from skill and lose,you understand.

[K9Pup]

Big,

Permit me to offer a slightly different suggestion.

Instead of trying to improve your handicapping, why don't you work on your wagering?

First, do you have a handle on how to wager? If you don't, then I would suggest starting there. Are you a win bettor? Exactas? Trifectas? Multi-race? At which of those wagers do you do the worst? The best? Do you know?

Second, if you do feel that you have a good handle on wagering, then look at the kinds of races you play. Do you do better at some kinds of races than others? Do you know?

Third, I'd look at the tracks that you play. Are there tracks you do poorly at?


My point is that there is a wealth of information that you you may or may not have that you need to have. This is where I would recommend you go next.

BTW, #1 is huge for most players.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

GREAT suggestion !!! Most people think nothing of spending tons of time HANDICAPPING. But then when it is time to wager they spend 10 seconds structuring their wager.

I also believe a lot of people play too "narrow" in the exotic bets. Some guys may be able to hit a lot of straight exactas, tris and even supers. But I've found that most "novice" players can't. And those novice players tend to wager assuming the race will run almost EXACTLY as they handicap it.

Missing a race when you bet 1-2 and it runs 1-3 isn't a matter of poor handicapping, it's a matter of poor wagering!!

[toetoe]

(Sigh !!) Light, honey, that was positively eloquent. The question of what the hell it even MEANS can wait. :D Let's give Zman a winner, shall we? I don't have one yet, so we've a minor problem. By Wednesday, I'll have SOMEthing. :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

You are not a complete player unless you have the skills to know the multiple ways to come out ahead via the various potential scenarios the handicapping provides you.

The other side of the equation is where most cannot cut it.

[BigJake]

Big,

Permit me to offer a slightly different suggestion.

Instead of trying to improve your handicapping, why don't you work on your wagering?

First, do you have a handle on how to wager? If you don't, then I would suggest starting there. Are you a win bettor? Exactas? Trifectas? Multi-race? At which of those wagers do you do the worst? The best? Do you know?

Second, if you do feel that you have a good handle on wagering, then look at the kinds of races you play. Do you do better at some kinds of races than others? Do you know?

Third, I'd look at the tracks that you play. Are there tracks you do poorly at?


My point is that there is a wealth of information that you you may or may not have that you need to have. This is where I would recommend you go next.

BTW, #1 is huge for most players.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I am honestly honored that the great Dave Schwartz has responded to my post. However, you are the very one that sent me spiraling deeper into my funk by asking about the formula for the the proper amount to bet in regards to pool size. After reading that string, I was like "Holy Sh*t, how deep do these #$%@ get. What were those probability equations again? Where are those Econ books the bookstore wouldn't buy back?"

The knowing how to wager theory is interesting because I think because I have a small bankroll, I don't cover as well as I should, but how do you fight a small bankroll?

Jake

[Dave Schwartz]

Perhaps you should just give me a call one day and we could discuss this for 30 minutes or so.

If you could send me an email we could make an appointment.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BigJake]

Just to give everyone a quick update. I had a 108% weekend. I feel like I've been seeing the races pretty good, but this weekend was above average for me. I hear baseball players talk about the balls being the size of watermelons when they are on hot streaks.

My balls looked the size of watermelons this weekend ;)

Big Jake

[Dave Schwartz]

Perhaps a trip to your doctor is in order.


<G>

[ranchwest]

Just to give everyone a quick update. I had a 108% weekend. I feel like I've been seeing the races pretty good, but this weekend was above average for me. I hear baseball players talk about the balls being the size of watermelons when they are on hot streaks.

My balls looked the size of watermelons this weekend ;)

Big Jake

Mickey Mantle once played softball against The King and His Court. Mantle said that Eddie Faynor's fastball looked real big when the ball left his hand, but it was real small when it got to the plate. Faynor struck out Mantle, Mays and McCovey on 9 pitches.

I'm glad you didn't have the same experience as Mantle.

My apologies for going off topic. Couldn't help myself. :)

[njcurveball]

I am honestly honored that the great Dave Schwartz has responded to my post.

May the Schwartz be with you!

[kitts]

To track my bets I use Cynthia Publishing's the Betting Analyst. I have been using it since it first came out in the '80s. It does a good job and it can tell you where you may make the best use of your bet bucks. I like it.