InFront
06-17-2007, 01:58 PM
Does anyone use Valueline picks on a regular basis? From time to time I check out their free previous day sheets to see how they do overall at many tracks. I just don't see the logic behind their service and they whack players $10 per card per day. From what I see an odds line is the same as a win% probability line. Meaning even if it is fairly accurate like a 3/1 odds line or a 20% probability line those horses do win close to 20% of the time but if their average payoff is less than $8 which it probably will be then you lose money. Now I understand the logic if you play those same 3/1 line or 20% line horses only when they have off odds at say 5/1 or higher these are known as Overlays and now you make money. But this ain't so. Those same horses while they do pay overall higher don't win near to 20% of the time anymore. That's just the way it is.
Valueline brags how they tested their line on over 300,000 races and how accurate it is. But if they have that capability then why don't they retest it when it is compared to actual post odds??? Like play all their 3/1 horses at different higher post odds levels, their 2/1 listed horses the same, etc. Now lets see how their valuelines do and more importantly if there is any real profit or value in using their product?
I have access to a similar odds line which is probably just as accurate as theirs. Meaning if I query only horses that have say between 20% - 25% of winning and test them on over 50,000 races those horses actually do win like 23% of the time. I can input any kind of % as this and it is very accurate overall. But once I add to the query play these X% at only minimum X post odds or even at X morning line odds it is a whole new ballgame. Those original accurate win%s drop like a rock. So I assume that Valueline's odds line would do the same. Am I missing something here?
Valueline brags how they tested their line on over 300,000 races and how accurate it is. But if they have that capability then why don't they retest it when it is compared to actual post odds??? Like play all their 3/1 horses at different higher post odds levels, their 2/1 listed horses the same, etc. Now lets see how their valuelines do and more importantly if there is any real profit or value in using their product?
I have access to a similar odds line which is probably just as accurate as theirs. Meaning if I query only horses that have say between 20% - 25% of winning and test them on over 50,000 races those horses actually do win like 23% of the time. I can input any kind of % as this and it is very accurate overall. But once I add to the query play these X% at only minimum X post odds or even at X morning line odds it is a whole new ballgame. Those original accurate win%s drop like a rock. So I assume that Valueline's odds line would do the same. Am I missing something here?