Hollywood Park Sunday December 8

[rrbauer]

I skipped church and the gym just for you!
:)
Hollywood Park Sunday 12-8
Fast and Firm Turf rails down

R1
Kelli’s Ransom As Frank Lyons would say, “Go to the windows”

R2
Zayed and Truckle Feature should ding-dong here. This could compromise ‘Feature if he has to “rush up” to get in the game early.

R3
More chalk. Tucked Away needs a good start. If she gets the lead I think she’ll be tough to overhaul. Outside posts, Cortina and Summer Special are the danger.

R4
I don’t like Futural or National Anthem. One of the other three should win, but I can’t separate them.

R5
Very tough heat. I would love Rugger if he was drawn outside, but from the 3-hole I see him getting shuffled back; or, having to be used to stay in the mix early. Pass!

R6
Another toughie. Hot loses the blinkers today. He lost his testicles before the last one and that didn’t help. I need to use four here: Golden Embers, Wholly John, Seattlespectacular & Magical Moment

R7
Frankel has a pretty good import here. 1st Lasix and rested. That’s Sea of Showers. The others on the board should come from Chastity Belle, Barely Daylight, Casting Call & Keys to the Heart

R8
Toss out Channing Way’s two turf tries over the past year and she’s perfect. Like the draw for her and I think that she’ll make the lead. Madame Pietra should be coming strong off the turn. Wild Tickle will have to be sent and that will compromise her chances. Habibti wants more distance than 6f (IMHO).

R9
The ML fav Ima Mile High Guy does not want 7f. That leaves Ufology with Rhetoric Express (Rest and barn change) and Orange ‘Em (don’t like this rider) as the ones to beat.

It ain't much, but it's Free!

[rrbauer]

An added "note" that I overlooked.
Hot in race 6 is a half-brother to XTRA HEAT. Probably explains why he was bet so hard in his debut. I'm still not using him!

[rrbauer]

Damage Report

R1
Kelli’s Ransom As Frank Lyons would say, “Go to the windows”
Result: Solis isn’t one of my favorite turf riders on the front end. Anyway he couldn’t get Kelli geared down to take advantage of the easy lead and then she didn’t change leads in the stretch; but, excuses aside, Java (a full-sister to Fiji) finally ran to her reputation and won clear. Kelli hung on for 2nd. $40 in doubles in the toilet!

R2
Zayed and Truckle Feature should ding-dong here. This could compromise ‘Feature if he has to “rush up” to get in the game early.
Result: Zayed popped and cleared with Jimmy O outside. Truckle Feature had to rush up as predicted and ran with Zayed past the 3/8th pole, took a funny step and backed out. Jimmy and Zayed went head-and-head off the turn to the wire with Jimmy getting the win while lapped on Zayed. Truckle (1/2) was off the board. Now here is the bad news: I had Zayed (9/2) to win ($10) and kicked off a handful of P3’s with him. They’re dead. But, I had $20P and $40S on Zayed and with Truckle running out, I got a $9.60 show price (a measly $4.60 on the place)!

R3
More chalk. Tucked Away needs a good start. If she gets the lead I think she’ll be tough to overhaul. Outside posts, Cortina and Summer Special are the danger.
Result: Tucked Away (2-1) never smelled the lead. Cortina (9/5) came along on the turn, inhaled the leader, and then was all out to hold Tucked Away safe at the end. No blood.

R4
I don’t like Futural or National Anthem. One of the other three should win, but I can’t separate them.
Result: The Frankel (who else) horse, Harrisand blew by them easily in the lane and won for fun. I would love to see Slew The Red (3rd) running down the hill on the Santa Anita hillside 6.5f course. He doesn’t want 1 ¼ miles that’s for sure and he’s built like a sprinter. $40 show bet on ‘Red came back $60. I just had no other opinion!

R5
Very tough heat. I would love Rugger if he was drawn outside, but from the 3-hole I see him getting shuffled back; or, having to be used to stay in the mix early. Pass!
Result: Didn’t watch it. Made a beer run! Rugger off the board. No blood (beer is cold!).

R6
Another toughie. Hot loses the blinkers today. He lost his testicles before the last one and that didn’t help. I need to use four here: Golden Embers, Wholly John, Seattlespectacular & Magical Moment
Result: Needed to use five! Six Numbers came along late and got the nod over Seattlespectacular and Golden Embers. Embers was probably best. Got trapped inside on the turn when full of run and had nowhere to go until well past the 1/8th pole. Wholly John was bet hard early (7/2 from 15-1 ML off at 7-1) and made a strong mid-race move before fading. Had $10 win on Baffert’s “other” horse (13-1) and started a P3 with ‘John and Seattle that was short-lived.

R7
Frankel has a pretty good import here. 1st Lasix and rested. That’s Sea of Showers. The others on the board should come from Chastity Belle, Barely Daylight, Casting Call & Keys to the Heart
Result Theresa Ann got away to an easy lead and almost stole this one. Finally, Sea Of Showers came from the back of the pack on the turn, got a hole to run through and at the 1/8th pole just exploded to win going away. Theresa held 2nd and Serene in Seattle got up for 3rd. I ended up singling ‘Showers in some P3’s and playing Casting Call (25-1) up/down in $1 exactas. $30 in P3’s going forward. -$22 on the exactas.

R8
Toss out Channing Way’s two turf tries over the past year and she’s perfect. Like the draw for her and I think that she’ll make the lead. Madame Pietra should be coming strong off the turn. Wild Tickle will have to be sent and that will compromise her chances. Habibti wants more distance than 6f (IMHO).
Result Wild Tickle outgunned Channing Way and took away that one’s early advantage. Madame Pietra came along on the turn and took care of both of those. ‘Tickle was game but got touched out of 2nd late by Habibti (slow start, wide far turn). Channing faded to 4th. Lost $10 win bet on Channing, but kept the P3’s going. $4 live to 5 and 10; $2 live to 7.

R9
The ML fav Ima Mile High Guy does not want 7f. That leaves Ufology with Rhetoric Express (Rest and barn change) and Orange ‘Em (don’t like this rider) as the ones to beat.
Result ’Guy (2-1) got out well but was pressured to the turn by Highly Suspect from the inside. Meanwhile ‘Express (5-1) made the golden move in the 4-path on the turn, took over in upper stretch and drew out. Orange ‘Em (5-1) was along for 2nd but never threatened. ‘Guy held on for 3rd. Ufology got pinballed at the start was at the rear on the backside and lost interest. Had to sweat my $1 exacta box on the 5-7-10 because the rider (don’t like this guy) on the 7 couldn’t keep a straight path, but they let it stand. +$48 on the exacta. Lost a $40 show bet on Ufology (end of that streak!). +$131 on my P3’s.

An OK day!

[anotherdave]

RR

Thanks so much for the analysis! I started betting Hollywood this weekend as my home track is black for a few months. I follow California some, but it is so nice to see analysis from someone who knows the track well. I had three wins today, but nothing exciting - made $7.50 profit. Only 2 yesterday, but one of them was a 2 horse dutch play in the 8th-Debonair Joe (107.60 there, 94.90 on our separate pools). I haven't hit one like that for 6 months. Think I'm gonna like Hollywood!

Keep the picks coming!

AD

[rrbauer]

Dave,
Good job on Debonair Joe (an improving 3YO who should be rested off of yesterday's top). I didn't look at them yesterday because I was out at Santa Anita as an extra in the Seabiscuit movie (I did manage to win a t-shirt there!).