is 2:28.74 really the best HE can do?? (did Albarado blow it?)

[Robert Fischer]

It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs.

It appeared to be a conservative ride that resulted in Curlin running a slower race then he was capable.

An argument could be made that Albarado didn't carry Curlin's form forward from the Derby and Preakness. With the lack of pace, he got that forwardly placed position.
At some point on the backstretch(approaching midway?) Albarado should begin to gradually separate himself from these other horses. The strategy seemed to be "PLAY IT SAFE" "lets ride cautious in regards to the distance, and sit in the pack forever, and we are so good that we will prevail in the stretch...".

There is a point in time when they should have been opening up and win the race. You don't sit with a group of slower horses to play it safe and then outkick a mare. Sure you don't make a bold move with 6 furlongs to go, however you do start to gradually leave a slower group of horses. Keeping with the form/running style of the animal it would be comparable to making headway as if he were in a faster race vs. faster horses.

Sometimes you sit there in that pack for 10 or 11 furlongs, and then you find out it becomes a little more difficult to separate from the pack. Kicking home after a "marathon" isn't like flicking a light switch, at least not for Curlin, which is why you carry form forward in the race by using the running style of making headway on the backstretch (whether you are 8 lengths or 2 lengths back). It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs.

Sure there is always the possibility that if Curlin did leave the comfort of the nest, and leave that slow group of horses 5 to 10 lengths behind entering the turn, that Rags to Riches runs that much faster of a final time and runs him down anyway.

[Hank]

The time of the race was a result of the pace and tactics not curlin's limitations.Also I agree that Robby was outridden By Johnny V but not for the reasons you suggest,entering the stretch he had his mount well off the dead rail He allowed JV to push him to the rail and gain the edge.

[Robert Fischer]

The time of the race was a result of the pace and tactics not curlin's limitations...


That is also my opinion. If that statement is true, I would tend to believe that Albarado's pace and tactics cost him he race.

[DanG]

It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs.

It appeared to be a conservative ride that resulted in Curlin running a slower race then he was capable.

An argument could be made that Albarado didn't carry Curlin's form forward from the Derby and Preakness. With the lack of pace, he got that forwardly placed position.
At some point on the backstretch(approaching midway?) Albarado should begin to gradually separate himself from these other horses. The strategy seemed to be "PLAY IT SAFE" "lets ride cautious in regards to the distance, and sit in the pack forever, and we are so good that we will prevail in the stretch...".

Wow Robert…We hit the trifecta in early morning disagreements. :)

IMHO…Albarado rode a brilliant race. Saved all the ground, sat the pocket. Had the perfect inside out trip entering while the filly was in the 4-path AND getting bumped because Robby was so aggressive coming out.

Robert…You’re a very astute watcher of races…Do you really believe the rider made the difference in this outcome? The filly did not have an easy trip at all.

As far as the time…Hank said it all…They flew home into the wind in sub 24 leaving that field for dead. This is the fatal flaw in figure makers in longer races / a more stamina demanding surface. If they can’t get a handle on how pace effects final time, they are doomed when they apply these ratings.

BTW: I’ve read several accounts of the “dead rail”. I disagree with that assessment.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Curlin had a perfect trip. Got into the clear no problems at all when it mattered after enjoying a very soft trip. Rags to Riches on the other hand had to travel a bit wide

Curlin had every possible chance. Rags to Riches won because she was the best horse. She would beat him again even with a quicker pace or tempo

Curlin is a nice horse but no superstar. Got beaten by 8 lengths in the Derby and won the Preakness by a nose or a head

[Greyfox]

Let's not forget that Curlin was a very very weary colt after the Preakness.

[DanG]

Let's not forget that Curlin was a very very weary colt after the Preakness.
Oh my…That’s a bit of a stretch…

Are these things written from a true belief, or is it an attempt to discredit her performance? Both have stared 5 times entering the race. She went from MSW to as brutal a grade-1 trip (while winning) at SA as many veteran handicappers have ever seen.

Please. This was on the square in the truest sense of the term. As Hajck would say…let’s just “carry on” and enjoy the fact that we have class animals in our country.

[46zilzal]

With crawling fractions like that, the final time is no surprise. It was functionally akin to a long turf race: close group all in contact with one late move......Hardly a surprse.

[Greyfox]

Oh my…That’s a bit of a stretch…

Are these things written from a true belief, or is it an attempt to discredit her performance? .

I for one would make no attempt to discredit Rags To Riches performance.
It was a fact that Curlin was weary after the Preakness.
Also, IMHO, Curlin was not bred to do the mile and a half distance. It was amazing that he ran so well and almost won.

Your comments border at times somewhere between being boorish pedanticism and authoritative "know-it-all" if your friends haven't told you. Much as you might like to believe that you are, you are not the Oracle on the Mount that we come to get the last word from.

After The Preakness the following report was made :

"Just under 12 hours after winning the Preakness, Asmussen had Curlin -- healthy, but showing signs of being a bit weary -- on his way to the trainer's stable at Churchill Downs (http://www.ntra.com/track.aspx?id=3707).

Asmussen watched as Curlin left the Preakness Stakes barn at 6 a.m. and was walked onto a van to be taken to Baltimore-Washington International Airport for the flight to Kentucky.

“He looked good as he was loaded on the trailer, but he definitely knows he ran (Saturday),” Asmussen said.

[Bruddah]

Rags to Riches
A. Superior filly and on par with any of her male contemporaries
B. Fresh off a 5 week layoff
C. carried 5 less pounds for the trip
D. got the jump on Curlin entering the straight a way
E. Was a tad bit faster in the drive
F. Looked the best in the eye and prevailed
G. has won every new test given her.
1. ran the 1 1/2 miles
2. beat her generation males
H. Over came a bad start and wide trip

Curlin
A. Clearly a superior animal, yet still immature and making mistakes
B. Has had a grueling campaign with only 3 weeks rest coming into the Belmont
C. Obviously capable of getting 1 1/2 miles (some doubted)
D. Has plenty of upside as he matures this summer
E. Gave up 5lbs to a champion filly

I would love to see Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun and R2R run in a race on even terms. It would sell out the house and TV, as well. (JMHO)

[classhandicapper]

My feeling is that once a horse is about 2F-3F from the wire, it is usually a tactical error to continue to reserve him. All that does is allow your competition to get closer to you without giving you an equal amount of kick. Maybe the horse will finish a tad faster that way, but if you've given up 2-3 lengths of potential advantage coming into the stretch you've blown the race. Cordero was a master of this. IMHO, jocks like Day, Krone, and others often blew races because of their style.

When I first watched the race, I thought Curlin might have been reserved a little too long before moving hard and trying to seize control. I was less sure on subsequent viewings.

In any event, overall, IMO the filly had the tougher trip. She stumbled early, lost more ground, and moved wide when the pace was picking up.

I will say that IMO slow paced races with very rapid last quarters like this tend to be somewhat less conclusive about ability than races with more demanding paces. It seems to me that some horses with less overall ability sometimes have superior late kicks in slower paced races. (see the Bluegrass for an example)

From a purely theoretical perspective, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened if the pace was tougher and both Rags to Riches and Curlin were used harder to get their position at the top of the stretch. They would have come home slower, but when they ding donged all the way home we would have seen who has more gas in the tank.

[DanG]

Your comments border at times somewhere between being boorish pedanticism and authoritative "know-it-all" if your friends haven't told you. Much as you might like to believe that you are, you are not the Oracle on the Mount that we come to get the last word from.
You’re absolutely correct Grey… (I see you have met my x-wife) :)

I take it all back and apologize. I don’t have the energy or desire to debate you as I find you would much rather argue than discuss.

Enjoy your summer.

PS: Bruddah…Let me show my “know it all” tendencies one more time…”Please keep betting into the same pools I play my friend.” ;)

Next thread…To everyone else who posted; enjoyed reading your thoughts, even when we disagree. :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

They flew home into the wind in sub 24 leaving that field for dead. This is the fatal flaw in figure makers in longer races / a more stamina demanding surface. If they can’t get a handle on how pace effects final time, they are doomed when they apply these ratings.

To me, that is one of the 64K questions in handicapping.

I can show you loads of examples of quality horses that raced against weaker opposition, prompted their slow pace, drew off when they hit the top of the stretch and earned only a decent figure. In their next start, they prompted the faster pace of better animals, still drew off, and earned a much better figure.

On the flip side, I can show you many examples of horses that did the exact same thing against weaker opposition but then collapsed when prompting the faster pace.

It's very difficult to measure the impact of pace on final time on an individal basis. Sometimes there are clues as to what might happen among lightly raced horses based on the pedigree, trainer, owner, workouts etc... But other times it's a lot tougher.

There are general rules that most people are familiar with when things get extreme, but horses have such varying degrees of natural early speed, stamina, late kick, etc.... the analysis can be very difficult before the fact.

[Hank]

Objective observations about the race are taken as somehow discriediting rags. [If she were a colt would this be happening?]The FACTS are, shes a great filly, she was fresh and got 5 pounds,She LIKES being outside and clear.Now here's a good question if she had battled through the Derby and Preakness would she have been able to win the Belmont? I think NOT.BTW I hope she developes into a true superstar cause she can't be rushed off to stud.

[kenwoodallpromos]

The best horse won the 2007 Belmont under the conditions of the horses, track, and strategy of the jockeys.
That is all that matters. If the jockeys raced like they were in a turf route in Europe, so be it. They do not pay a bonus for a faster time.

[JustRalph]

With crawling fractions like that, the final time is no surprise. It was functionally akin to a long turf race: close group all in contact with one late move......Hardly a surprse.

that is exactly what I thought when I saw the 6F time. that little voice inside me said......."They are running this like a turf race"

I kind of expected it.........but if Robbie had a chance I bet he wishes he would have moved about two seconds earlier..........just to see what would have happen differently.........not sure it would have made a difference. But twenty more yards of running would have been interesting.........

[toetoe]

I think Albarado is a sweetheart, and the feature on the Cajun riders was very nice. That said, I'm not sure Sir Robert has EVER run a brilliant race. I have a coleague that says that RAlb gets 25% stock and wins with 20% of it. That would still place him in the top 100 of riders, of course. JVel and CBor are not special, either. :)
I think RtoR and Curlin are both special. However, it's very tricky comparing them to their contemporaries. The losers get props for running against the best, but the best may get slammed for beating nothing. It's inevitable. Secretariat beat next-to-nothing in his Belmont, while Seattle Slew beat absoLUTEly nothing in his. Still great colts. :jump:

[Robert Fischer]

first - I think everyone in here has put up a valid opinion. This is very subjective.

The main issues to me are:
a) was Curlin physically capable of running a faster time?

b) would the outcome have changed( or would RTR simply have bested Curlin's best?)

- maybe worth adding a c)- was Albarado blocked in and couldn't have moved even if had wanted.


After watching the race several more times in detail, I think it would have taken a really good ride(or a little aggressive contact) to find the room to get out from behind Slew's Tizzy, CP West, and from the inside of Hard Spun. I haven't found the overhead view for the Belmont nor a Head-On view.

critical point of reference:
at aprox. 75 seconds into the race (or 1:15 or 6 furlongs)
Curlin is developing a rhythm and his natural stride brings him to even terms with Hard Spun. Difficult to tell how much room he has to the front or if he needs to make room.
on the breederscup site:
http://www.breederscup.com/video.aspx?id=25924
the time reads 1:33 (as in 1:33 remaining in the video)

on the calracing site www.calracing.com/replays (http://www.calracing.com/replays) (need to register)
the time reads 1:22 (as in 1:22 since the start of the video)

My opinion is that Curlin's natural stride from that critical point would have allowed him to efficiently run a faster(winning) race. Time to tell CP West, Slew's Tizzy, and Hard Spun to come with him or get left behind. Fine if he makes the lead and begins to gradually pull away. A slower pace does not restrict a horse like Curlin. He is not a one-run deep closer, he can run with the lead. If he is actually trapped and the jockey wants to go - time to make room - i'd rather see a jockey ride aggressively than lag back in a pocket if he truely wants to get out.

IMO the best part of Curlin's game is his stride. I think that he did not use his great natural stride for the heart of the race. IMO continuing to lag in that pocket saving ground for almost 3 more furlongs (until 1:50 into the race when Slew's Tizzy quit (almost to 9 furlongs)), cost Curlin several lengths in final time.

[DanG]

After watching the race several more times in detail...

critical point of reference:
at aprox. 75 seconds into the race (or 1:15 or 6 furlongs)
Curlin is developing a rhythm and his natural stride brings him to even terms with Hard Spun. Difficult to tell how much room he has to the front or if he needs to make room.
on the breederscup site:
http://www.breederscup.com/video.aspx?id=25924
the time reads 1:33 (as in 1:33 remaining in the video)

on the calracing site www.calracing.com/replays (http://www.calracing.com/replays) (need to register)
the time reads 1:22 (as in 1:22 since the start of the video)

IMO the best part of Curlin's game is his stride. I think that he did not use his great natural stride for the heart of the race. IMO continuing to lag in that pocket saving ground for almost 3 more furlongs (until 1:50 into the race when Slew's Tizzy quit (almost to 9 furlongs)), cost Curlin several lengths in final time.
Robert,

That is a very interesting, time consuming and potentially lucrative way of evaluating races. I admire your drive to break races down with these subjective observations that just aren’t in the pp’s. :ThmbUp:

Question…Is this a discipline you apply to whatever circuit you follow closely, or is this additional concentration on a classic?

BTW: Why I have no idea why, but I have in my head your posting from overseas. Not that it makes a difference, but I was curious if you developed this visual approach through European grass racing?

Thanks

[Robert Fischer]

Question…Is this a discipline you apply to whatever circuit you follow closely, or is this additional concentration on a classic?
...
I concentrate on races with wagering value today, or with individual horses who are likely to provide value later.
It isn't really about the jockey or some arm-chair dream trip.
-When I am six to ten lengths wrong about a horse, it is important to know why. Ability? Pace? Other?

I enjoy the turf races around the world, but my focus and residence is in the USA. :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

I concentrate on races with wagering value today, or with individual horses who are likely to provide value later.
It isn't really about the jockey or some arm-chair dream trip.
-When I am six to ten lengths wrong about a horse, it is important to know why. Ability? Pace? Other?

I enjoy the turf races around the world, but my focus and residence is in the USA. :ThmbUp:
Understood Robert, thanks.

[The Judge]

The Jockeys has alot to do with this race. They wanted to know where every other horse was and who was that horse. If Curlin moved early R2R would have moved right with him. Hard Spun race was an experiment and can be thrown out.

After a rest Hard Spun my yet get the last say in this math-up between Street Sense, Curlin and R2R. This is hard to say because the horse may now know who these horses are and may be discouraged, but I don't think so. Don't forget he ran in the Derby and Preakness also.

[1099please]

I remember my brother years ago telling me on a number of occasions, that such and such race was being set up for a particular horse because they were putting in a pacemaker to set fast early fractions. The pacemaker was an entry,he would set a fast pace and usually aid its teamate, ending up with a win for the connections. I do not know what the eligibility requirements are for a race like the Belmont but with all the talk about how slow they ran is this race, is this not a viable strategy or is this just not done anymore.

[classhandicapper]

You are pretty much describing what I was describing above.

Originally I also thought there was a period late on the 2nd turn where Albarado was waiting when he should have already been riding hard. That allowed Rags to Riches to draw even with him entering the stretch instead of potentially using his ground saving position to get the jump on her.

To me, at that late point in a race there is almost zero benefit to waiting and enormous downside because you allow the other horse to get to you.

When I looked at it again, it seemed less clear how hard he was urging and when.

If you wants an example of what I am talking about take a look at the ride on Stormello that day. It looked like Stormello was totally loaded while on the lead on the turn. The jock spent more time looking behind him than actually riding Stormello. To me, that was foolish. Had he been more aggressive late turn, he would have opened up a bigger lead. They probably would have caught him anyway given the result, but by sitting and sitting he allowed horses with superior kicks to be right on top of him turning for home and reduced his chances.

[bobphilo]

Alborado rode the race intelligently. When you’re on the likely best horse in the race that, as he showed in the Preakness, can finish like a tiger, having him just off the lead at the head of the stretch was the perfect strategy. To risk a bonehead early move, which has cost more than one horse the Belmont, would have been just stupid. He just got beat by a superior filly that uncorked a better race that day.



Bob

[samyn on the green]

They came home in 23 and change, a brilliant final 1/4 in a 12 furlong dirt race. You have to consider this when talking about the final time here.

[classhandicapper]

Bob,

IF I understand him, I don't think he's arguing that Albarado should have made a premature early move. I think he's wondering whether he started his serious and sustained run a little too late.

I don't have an opinion on it because I can't really tell at what point he started asking.

Usually, when you have the inside and cut the corner you get a positional jump on the horse a few paths outside of you if you have similar ability (which they did given the result).

He didn't get a jump on her despite saving ground late turn and then found himself in a ding dong battle starting from even.

"IF" he could have asked Curlin for more a little sooner late on the turn and had a 1/2 length or length on her turning for home perhaps he would have run a little faster and won??????????

I think this kind of question could be relevant when both horses come home really fast. They both crossed the finish line with plenty left in the tank.

[the_fat_man]

If you wants an example of what I am talking about take a look at the ride on Stormello that day. It looked like Stormello was totally loaded while on the lead on the turn. The jock spent more time looking behind him than actually riding Stormello. To me, that was foolish. Had he been more aggressive late turn, he would have opened up a bigger lead. They probably would have caught him anyway given the result, but by sitting and sitting he allowed horses with superior kicks to be right on top of him turning for home and reduced his chances.

Kent typically looks behind but in this case he knew he was dead. He needlessly pumped the horse to open up on the turn (after shutting off Deadly Dearler) when he didn't need to. There's riding aggressively to get an advantage and there's senseless pushing when it doesn't benefit you.

[thelyingthief]

given his body type and conformation, strikes me as a miler, and i would not be at all surprised to see him set several track records in that distance.

[the_fat_man]

Bob,



He didn't get a jump on her despite saving ground late turn and then found himself in a ding dong battle starting from even.

"IF" he could have asked Curlin for more a little sooner late on the turn and had a 1/2 length or length on her turning for home perhaps he would have run a little faster and won??????????

I think this kind of question could be relevant when both horses come home really fast. They both crossed the finish line with plenty left in the tank.

While the inside is generally not the best spot for a long strider, the filly was 2 paths wider on each of the turns, and they ran 4F together and Curlin wasn't able to get a head in front. DISAPPOINTING effort.

[classhandicapper]

Kent typically looks behind but in this case he knew he was dead. He needlessly pumped the horse to open up on the turn (after shutting off Deadly Dearler) when he didn't need to. There's riding aggressively to get an advantage and there's senseless pushing when it doesn't benefit you.

I saw it the other way around.

He WAS USED putting away Deadly dealer, but after that one threw in the towel he found himself clear early/mid turn. He stopped riding and started looking behind every few seconds.

I can guarantee you that if Cordero was riding that horse he would have been pumping real hard late turn trying to put as much distance between himself and the closers turning for home as he could instead of sitting there waiting for them to catch up and then starting to ride.

I don't think it mattered in this case, but IMO any time the rider of a front runner is waiting and rating late on the turn allowing the competition to close in on him it's a tactical error. There is little or no energy upside to rating at that late point and a large positional disadvantage. That's the Pat Day style.

If you watched Cordero when he was at his best, no one did it better.

[Pace Cap'n]

Does anyone think R2R was carried exceedingly wide going into the first turn? Don't know who the horse was to her left, looked like it might not have been an accident...but I've not seen a replay.

[the_fat_man]

I saw it the other way around.

He WAS USED putting away Deadly dealer, but after that one threw in the towel he found himself clear early/mid turn. He stopped riding and started looking behind every few seconds.

I can guarantee you that if Cordero was riding that horse he would have been pumping real hard late turn trying to put as much distance between himself and the closers turning for home as he could instead of sitting there waiting for them to catch up and then starting to ride.

I don't think it mattered in this case, but IMO any time the rider of a front runner is waiting and rating late on the turn allowing the competition to close in on him it's a tactical error. There is little or no energy upside to rating at that late point and a large positional disadvantage. That's the Pat Day style.

If you watched Cordero when he was at his best, no one did it better.

The difference with Cordero is that he could keep a tired horse going in the stretch. There will never be another like him. Johnny V likes to stick like Angel but when Angel went to the whip early, it counted.

Let me ask you a question? If, in fact, he did have something left AFTER putting away DD at a point in the race where he really needn't have done anything else BUT sit on the lead, (and this is something that Cornelio is particularly prone to)

WHERE WAS HIS RUN IN THE STRETCH?

He might've lost a bit (a very small bit) of momentum when Kent looked back, but the horse got passed by Most Distinguished, FFS.

Need more be said? Most Distinguished.

Quantify ground loss due to LOOKING BACK by the jock. Does the jock stop riding when looking back? Is looking back worth losing almost 3 lengths in a 24.15 quarter and a 12.41 eighth? All but 1/2 of it in the last 1/8th during which 3 horses that were badly beaten are actually running evenly? And, I haven't seen the headon here, but I'd be willing to bet a dollar to a doughnut that they're not exactly under pressure the last 1/8th.

We can debate tactics all we want but unless it involves a move that actually costs a horse in terms of ground loss or momentum, it's really not the type of tripping I like to get involved with.

[NYPlayer]

It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs...

..It appeared to be a conservative ride that resulted in Curlin running a slower race then he was capable...

...Sure there is always the possibility that if Curlin did leave the comfort of the nest, and leave that slow group of horses 5 to 10 lengths behind entering the turn, that Rags to Riches runs that much faster of a final time and runs him down anyway.

It just looked like a plain old bounce to me. Even if he had run a normal pace or made a big move, he would have lost. RTR was just ready to run a big race. A troubled break, wide around both turns - she was much the best.

[NY BRED]

Does anyone think R2R was carried exceedingly wide going into the first turn? Don't know who the horse was to her left, looked like it might not have been an accident...but I've not seen a replay.

J.V. /and /or the horse made several moves on the backstrech before
going into the six path on the turn, which had me concerned.


There is some spin out there that Gomez was riding two horses in the
race, pinning Curlin on the rail.While I believe this tactic was for the sake of
Hard Spun, the maneuver certainly helped R2R which also could be the cause
of the wide move..

[bobphilo]

Bob,

IF I understand him, I don't think he's arguing that Albarado should have made a premature early move. I think he's wondering whether he started his serious and sustained run a little too late.

I don't have an opinion on it because I can't really tell at what point he started asking.

Usually, when you have the inside and cut the corner you get a positional jump on the horse a few paths outside of you if you have similar ability (which they did given the result).

He didn't get a jump on her despite saving ground late turn and then found himself in a ding dong battle starting from even.

"IF" he could have asked Curlin for more a little sooner late on the turn and had a 1/2 length or length on her turning for home perhaps he would have run a little faster and won??????????

I think this kind of question could be relevant when both horses come home really fast. They both crossed the finish line with plenty left in the tank.

Class,


In watching the replay, especially the overhead view, it’s pretty clear that Alborado did not have much choice. In commenting on the replay Gary Stevens said “with the slow pace, he would have loved to be able to put a few lengths between himself and the filly before he came into the stretch” but he was trapped behind C.P.West and pinned down by Hard Spun “until a hole opened up between them near the head of the stretch, so he had no choice”

Though that makes the question of Alborado’s timing moot, I’m still not sure that timing his move sooner would have made any difference in the result, though it might have improved the final time slightly. Velasquez was only a half-length behind Curlin on the turn and would have moved right with him.


Even supposing that Alborado could have moved sooner and that Velasquez would have let him gain an advantage, I can’t say that Alborado made a tactical error. I understand what you’re saying and even in human track, when one runner knows another has a better closing kick than him, he tries to have a good lead on the faster closer at the head of the lane, but Alborado had no reason to believe either Rags, or anyone else in the field could out kick him. In fact, after his tremendous finish in the Preakness, the only thing he would have to be concerned with was that no one else would have a big lead on him going into the stretch. For a strong finisher like Curlin to be anywhere near the lead at the top of the lane was a great position.


In any case, the issue of whether an earlier move would have changed the result is moot since, as Gary Stevens said, “he had no choice”.


Bob

[bobphilo]

It just looked like a plain old bounce to me. Even if he had run a normal pace or made a big move, he would have lost. RTR was just ready to run a big race. A troubled break, wide around both turns - she was much the best.

I'd hesitate to call Curlin's race a "bounce" considering how he distanced the rest of the field. He just got beat a head by a superior filly running her best race.
I'll wait for the figure before making a judgement on Curlin's perfromance.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I'd hesitate to call Curlin's race a "bounce" considering how he distanced the rest of the field. He just got beat a head by a superior filly running her best race.
I'll wait for the figure before making a judgement on Curlin's perfromance.

Bob

Bob,

Curlin didn't bounce. His last four variant ratings from furthest back are.
Both he and RTR ran a huge race.

81(OP Derby),
74(KY Derby),
82(Preakness),
82(Belmont)

John

[Greyfox]

Class,


Velasquez was only a half-length behind Curlin on the turn and would have moved right with him.



Exactly. That's how I saw it too.

[Pell Mell]

A totally different race if Hard Spun is allowed to do his thing.

[DanG]

A totally different race if Hard Spun is allowed to do his thing.
What would have changed? :confused:

[Pell Mell]

A horse can only make up so much groung in a 1/4 mi. She may have been 15 lengths back coming home. Chasing a faster pace doesn't leave all that much in the tank. A slow pace just puts everyone in contention, even horses that shouldn't be there.

PS- Show me one match race in history where a closer beat a frontrunner.

[Greyfox]

A slow pace just puts everyone in contention, even horses that shouldn't be there.
PS- Show me one match race in history where a closer beat a frontrunner.

Looks like you may be defeating your own argument.
You say that a slow pace puts everyone in contention.
In my observation, a slow pace makes those on the front of it harder to catch.
With Hard Spun close to the front he had an edge on RTR and Curlin.
When it came down to crunch time he just didn't have enough stamina and turn of speed to go when they fired.
As I saw the race, Curlin fired first and RTR half a second later.
RTR was at a bit of a disadvantage being wide on the turn, but overcame that.

[Robert Fischer]

What would have changed? :confused:

take a look at the velocity in feet per second at each split:


BELMONT
HS 1/4=52.79...2-4=52.2....8-10=53.58....10-12=51.20..TOT=52.55

RTR 1/4=52.47...2-4=52.2....8-10=53.97....10-12=55.39..TOT=53.25

CUR 1/4= 52.87...2-4=52.2....8-10=53.74....10-12=55.38..TOT=53.24

Preakness
HS 1/4=56.59...2-4=57.24....4-6=56.38....6-8=52.57..8-9.5=51.38...TOT=54.91

CUR 1/4=54.84...2-4=56.02..4-6=57.05....6-8=54.66..8-9.5=53.35...TOT=55.26





For one the dynamics of the race change drastically if Hard Spun were to have set a faster pace.
Hard Spun is in a rhythm on the lead, CP West is tracking, Slew's Tizzy is chasing, Curlin is in a stride, Rags To Riches is in a stride, and Tiago is a little more distanced early.

How do the different dynamics change the results? That is a matter of opinion. I would be confident that Slew's Tizzy quits a lot sooner. At the very least Curlin doesn't have to wait for room when Slew's Tizzy quits at 9furlongs into the race to start his run. The rest comes down to who you believe benefits from the open running.

[Greyfox]

By my prerace Preakness figs, if Hard Spun would have gone to the top,
"Slew" would have gone with him. A pace duel would have occurred and then some of you guys would be writing "Why oh why did Gomez get into that early duel?"
Yes. He would have won the pace duel with Slew. But at what expense.
He would have finished even farther up the track than he did.
Gomez, is one of the top riders in North America. Hard Spun was training poorly in the morning of the week leading into the race. He was a spent horse
and Jones was wishful thinking that he would do better.

[Pell Mell]

There were a lot better horses than Slew that HS put away in the derby. The ability to run a fast pace easily is an advantage that should never be taken away regardless of what the outcome "might have been". I don't care what the hell game your in, you have got to play to your strength, win or lose!

[Greyfox]

There were a lot better horses than Slew that HS put away in the derby. The ability to run a fast pace easily is an advantage that should never be taken away regardless of what the outcome "might have been". I don't care what the hell game your in, you have got to play to your strength, win or lose!

Putting away Slew in an early pace duel in a mile and a half race would have been sheer folly. Any way you carve it HS was not meant for this distance against RTR and Curlin. Let's not forget Tiago. He too had to wait for a path to open.

[classhandicapper]

Let me ask you a question? If, in fact, he did have something left AFTER putting away DD at a point in the race where he really needn't have done anything else BUT sit on the lead, (and this is something that Cornelio is particularly prone to)

WHERE WAS HIS RUN IN THE STRETCH?


My view is that very late in a race there is little incremental pace advantage to reserving your horse. Whatever advantage there is, it is "less" than the disadvantage of allowing the other horses to catch up to you and turning the race into a sprint with a bunch of closers up your butt.

IMO, once you are at the top of the stretch/late turn you should be riding all out to maximize the gap between you and the others. You will tire more often, but you will have a bigger lead for the others to make up. IMO, the bigger lead maximizes your performance and gets you home first more often than the Pat Day style.

Keep in mind I am talking about late turn into the stretch, not before that. Earlier than that and you are using the horse in a way that becomes a negative.

[classhandicapper]

Class,


In watching the replay, especially the overhead view, it’s pretty clear that Alborado did not have much choice. In commenting on the replay Gary Stevens said “with the slow pace, he would have loved to be able to put a few lengths between himself and the filly before he came into the stretch” but he was trapped behind C.P.West and pinned down by Hard Spun “until a hole opened up between them near the head of the stretch, so he had no choice”

Though that makes the question of Alborado’s timing moot, I’m still not sure that timing his move sooner would have made any difference in the result, though it might have improved the final time slightly. Velasquez was only a half-length behind Curlin on the turn and would have moved right with him.


Even supposing that Alborado could have moved sooner and that Velasquez would have let him gain an advantage, I can’t say that Alborado made a tactical error. I understand what you’re saying and even in human track, when one runner knows another has a better closing kick than him, he tries to have a good lead on the faster closer at the head of the lane, but Alborado had no reason to believe either Rags, or anyone else in the field could out kick him. In fact, after his tremendous finish in the Preakness, the only thing he would have to be concerned with was that no one else would have a big lead on him going into the stretch. For a strong finisher like Curlin to be anywhere near the lead at the top of the lane was a great position.


In any case, the issue of whether an earlier move would have changed the result is moot since, as Gary Stevens said, “he had no choice”.


Bob



I agree.

[DanG]

There were a lot better horses than Slew that HS put away in the derby. The ability to run a fast pace easily is an advantage that should never be taken away regardless of what the outcome "might have been". I don't care what the hell game your in, you have got to play to your strength, win or lose!
I realize this is all theoretical, but I can’t think of a 6f fraction that changes that result. Hard Spun was not winning that 12f race and he should have taken the path Street Sense did and rested the animal. If he set a very fast pace, he comes home like a plow horse into that wind….IMHO.

[Ivan]

I realize this is all theoretical, but I can’t think of a 6f fraction that changes that result. Hard Spun was not winning that 12f race and he should have taken the path Street Sense did and rested the animal. If he set a very fast pace, he comes home like a plow horse into that wind….IMHO.

I agree 100% DanG.

Hard Spun has some major Stamina issues it's very obvious. He should be GIVEN A REST and then pointed for some 7F or 1M Turf stakes

:cool:

[46zilzal]

Hard Spun sets a very fast pace and he would have been cooked worse than he was: race was too long for him.

[Robert Fischer]

I would like like to see Hard Spun on a moderately fast pace (think Kentucky Derby after the first 2 furlongs).

I don't get why he either has to run 1:16! :confused: or 1:09!:mad:.
Trying to get in a rhythm were the horse can run a moderate pace has nothing to do with Speed Duels or Extreme Rating Tactics.

He wasn't good enough to win or run second, and he could be Worse or Better setting a natural pace, but we are looking at 3rd or 4th or 5th place.

He will be an interesting one to watch.

Anyone else think Ramon Dominguez would be a good fit on Hard Spun??

[NYPlayer]

I'd hesitate to call Curlin's race a "bounce" considering how he distanced the rest of the field. He just got beat a head by a superior filly running her best race.
I'll wait for the figure before making a judgement on Curlin's perfromance.

Bob

At the finish, Curlin was ahead of the third place finisher by 5-1/2 lengths. The third place finisher was Tiago, who was seventh in the Derby, and was nowhere close to Curlin in terms of numbers. Tiago beat the vaunted Hard Spun (who looked rather hard spent) by four lengths. Of course, the Sheet figures will enlighten as to what happened exactly, but my preliminary assessment is that Curlin regressed from the number he ran in the Preakness, while RTR improved to take the race. Hard Spun bounced significantly.

It seems to me the Belmont was a textbook case for the bounce phenomenon and form cycle analysis.

[Robert Fischer]

At the finish, Curlin was ahead of the third place finisher by 5-1/2 lengths. The third place finisher was Tiago, who was seventh in the Derby, and was nowhere close to Curlin in terms of numbers. Tiago beat the vaunted Hard Spun (who looked rather hard spent) by four lengths. Of course, the Sheet figures will enlighten as to what happened exactly, but my preliminary assessment is that Curlin regressed from the number he ran in the Preakness, while RTR improved to take the race. Hard Spun bounced significantly.

It seems to me the Belmont was a textbook case for the bounce phenomenon and form cycle analysis.

It is purely subjective to judge their form here. The tactics and pace dominated over form cycle.

As smooth as it looked visually Curlin and Rags actually came home the last 2 furlongs of this Mile and a half race in 55.4 feet per second!

That says they really had a TON of horse left. How can you definitively say that Curlin regressed (or not) when he had that much horse?

In the last split of the PREAKNESS Curlin actually came SLOWER.

His brilliant final time in the Preakness was more a reflection of his ability and the the way that race was run than some reflection of a his form cycle being better than in the Belmont.

He may have been ever so slightly worse (or Better?) in the Belmont, but the tactics were completely different as well as the obvious difference of 2.5 extra furlongs. Very subjective call. In a paceless race things like groundloss also matter less. I think most experts will play it safe and say he slightly regressed. It will still be interesting to see the sheets and graph guy's opinions.


BELMONT VELOCITIES FOR EACH SPLIT
CURLIN 1/4= 52.87...2-4=51.97....4-6 52.74...6-852.83 8-10=53.74....FINAL SPLIT10-12=55.38..TOTAVG=53.24:(

Preakness
CURLIN 1/4=54.84...2-4=56.02..4-6=57.05....6-8=54.66..FINAL SPLIT8-9.5=53.35...TOTAVG.=55.26:eek:


:confused: peak, valley, or plateu ??

[Ivan]

I thought John V. just rode a far superior race

If the tables were turned and RTR was stuck inside the results would have been different

Kudos to RTR she ran a great race:ThmbUp: but was also given the better ride

I think Curlin needs a good 6 weeks off

Looking forward to see Curlin run in the fall

:cool:

[NYPlayer]

It is purely subjective to judge their form here. The tactics and pace dominated over form cycle.

As smooth as it looked visually Curlin and Rags actually came home the last 2 furlongs of this Mile and a half race in 55.4 feet per second!

That says they really had a TON of horse left. How can you definitively say that Curlin regressed (or not) when he had that much horse?

In the last split of the PREAKNESS Curlin actually came SLOWER.

His brilliant final time in the Preakness was more a reflection of his ability and the the way that race was run than some reflection of a his form cycle being better than in the Belmont.

He may have been ever so slightly worse (or Better?) in the Belmont, but the tactics were completely different as well as the obvious difference of 2.5 extra furlongs. Very subjective call. In a paceless race things like groundloss also matter less. I think most experts will play it safe and say he slightly regressed. It will still be interesting to see the sheets and graph guy's opinions.


BELMONT VELOCITIES FOR EACH SPLIT
CURLIN 1/4= 52.87...2-4=51.97....4-6 52.74...6-852.83 8-10=53.74....FINAL SPLIT10-12=55.38..TOTAVG=53.24:(

Preakness
CURLIN 1/4=54.84...2-4=56.02..4-6=57.05....6-8=54.66..FINAL SPLIT8-9.5=53.35...TOTAVG.=55.26:eek:


:confused: peak, valley, or plateu ??


First off, your comparisons using raw times are not valid. These were two different races, run on two different days at two different distances. If the track times of races were accurate by themselves, do you think that organizations such as The Sheets would pay observers to hand time races from the gate and gather trip and wind data?

If it was truly a "paceless" race as you say, what happened to the front runners? If CP West didn't bounce what are we to make of the fact that he apparently stopped after a mile timed in 1:40? I'm sure that if you look at his Preakness, you'll find a fraction which he ran at 55.26fps. And what about Hard Spun? A race that was truly slow early should have allowed the front runners to continue.

As your analysis of the Preakness race times points out, Curlin was capable of going a two furlong fraction at 57.05 fps, so why couldn't he summon that speed in the stretch drive at Belmont after such a "paceless" race?

He bounced. That's why.

[Greyfox]

He couldn't summon up that in the stretch because the race was considerably longer and he had to use energy to get to that point at the top of the stretch.

[bobphilo]

At the finish, Curlin was ahead of the third place finisher by 5-1/2 lengths. The third place finisher was Tiago, who was seventh in the Derby, and was nowhere close to Curlin in terms of numbers. Tiago beat the vaunted Hard Spun (who looked rather hard spent) by four lengths. Of course, the Sheet figures will enlighten as to what happened exactly, but my preliminary assessment is that Curlin regressed from the number he ran in the Preakness, while RTR improved to take the race. Hard Spun bounced significantly.

It seems to me the Belmont was a textbook case for the bounce phenomenon and form cycle analysis.

Just slavishly considering the speed figures, TG gives Curlin a negative .5, which was 2.5 points slower than his negative 3 in the Preakness but still equal to his previous lifetime top. According to John’s Kuck figures he paired his Preakness figure of 82, so it depends on who’s figures you’re looking at, and that is without even considering other factors such as distance and the very different pace scenario in the Belmont.

Again, to say that Hard Spun “bounced significantly” without even considering he is not a 12-furlong horse, is to miss a very relevant factor.

To say that every horse that doesn’t replicate a big figure has “bounced”, with the further assumption that the previous effort was the only reason, without regard to the conditions in which the figures were earned, including different distances and widley varying paces, is more a textbook case of oversimplification than comprehensive form analysis.


Bob

[bobphilo]

Bob,

Curlin didn't bounce. His last four variant ratings from furthest back are.
Both he and RTR ran a huge race.

81(OP Derby),
74(KY Derby),
82(Preakness),
82(Belmont)

John

John, I totally agree. My impression of the Belmont was that the top 2 both ran ran big races, and I'm glad to see that your figures back that up.
If one considers that Curlin had a troubled trip in the Derby and that beaten lengths are less significant at 10 furlongs, we have a horse who has consistently run great in every lifetime start and defies any dogmatic application of "bounce" theory. That's not to say that he can't go off form at some later point in his career, but until he shows some sign of tailing off, I'm not writing him off in any race. This is a superior horse running in his comfort range of great races - no sweat for him.

And speaking of expecting a horse to run running consistently good races, that applies to Rags to Riches as well.

Bob

[Robert Fischer]

First off, your comparisons using raw times are not valid. These were two different races, run on two different days at two different distances. If the track times of races were accurate by themselves, do you think that organizations such as The Sheets would pay observers to hand time races from the gate and gather trip and wind data?


The sheets guys do a great job of this. Wish I had personal clockers... All i can do is check to see if the video timer corresponds to the chart time calls appropriatly. I then am left to keep eyes and ears open regarding things like them finishing into the wind during the Belmont stretch or if there was some internal mistake with the fractions. The thing about raw times converted to velocity isn't trying to say 44seconds at pimlico = 45.3seconds at Belmont park, -it is the ability to look at race shape. If the horses ran faster the last 4 furlongs and much faster the last 2 furlongs - that tells me that the horses ran slow for a mile. No variants needed.



If it was truly a "paceless" race as you say, what happened to the front runners? If CP West didn't bounce what are we to make of the fact that he apparently stopped after a mile timed in 1:40? I'm sure that if you look at his Preakness, you'll find a fraction which he ran at 55.26fps. And what about Hard Spun? A race that was truly slow early should have allowed the front runners to continue.


CP West actually quit at about 9 furlongs(maybe 9.5 without checking the replay once again). CP is not bred for 12 furlongs and was simply the 5th/6th best horse at the distance. Hes not a bad horse. I think CP benefited from the last two races.
Hard Spun may be the kind of horse that uses his energy over the time regardless of how fast he is going. In other words I don't think running under a hold for 8 furlongs saved any more energy for Hard Spun than breezing in his natural cruising speed would have. After 10 furlongs he didn't have any lead at all, he was actually a head behind the lead. He doesn't have the kind of energy to out-kick horses like Rags To Riches, Curlin , Tiago, Imawildandcrazyguy from a "stand still" after already running 10 furlongs.
It was a slow pace and everyone decent was on even terms after 10 furlongs, and it came down to who has the best kick for the final quarter of the marathon.


As your analysis of the Preakness race times points out, Curlin was capable of going a two furlong fraction at 57.05 fps, so why couldn't he summon that speed in the stretch drive at Belmont after such a "paceless" race?

He bounced. That's why.


The 55.38 that Curlin and Rags ran was absolutely brilliant at the end of a 12 furlong race. Along with Rags to Riches it was one of the fastest final quarters ever in a Belmont stakes. You just can't go much faster than they went.

[Pell Mell]

The sheets guys do a great job of this. Wish I had personal clockers... All i can do is check to see if the video timer corresponds to the chart time calls appropriatly. I then am left to keep eyes and ears open regarding things like them finishing into the wind during the Belmont stretch or if there was some internal mistake with the fractions. The thing about raw times converted to velocity isn't trying to say 44seconds at pimlico = 45.3seconds at Belmont park, -it is the ability to look at race shape. If the horses ran faster the last 4 furlongs and much faster the last 2 furlongs - that tells me that the horses ran slow for a mile. No variants needed.




CP West actually quit at about 9 furlongs(maybe 9.5 without checking the replay once again). CP is not bred for 12 furlongs and was simply the 5th/6th best horse at the distance. Hes not a bad horse. I think CP benefited from the last two races.
Hard Spun may be the kind of horse that uses his energy over the time regardless of how fast he is going. In other words I don't think running under a hold for 8 furlongs saved any more energy for Hard Spun than breezing in his natural cruising speed would have. After 10 furlongs he didn't have any lead at all, he was actually a head behind the lead. He doesn't have the kind of energy to out-kick horses like Rags To Riches, Curlin , Tiago, Imawildandcrazyguy from a "stand still" after already running 10 furlongs.
It was a slow pace and everyone decent was on even terms after 10 furlongs, and it came down to who has the best kick for the final quarter of the marathon.



The 55.38 that Curlin and Rags ran was absolutely brilliant at the end of a 12 furlong race. Along with Rags to Riches it was one of the fastest final quarters ever in a Belmont stakes. You just can't go much faster than they went.

Thanks, you said what I wanted to say but I didn't find the right words. I think that if HS was allowed to run at his normal cruising speed the 3/4 would probably have been about 1:12 and he would have had the same energy left. But, had this happened, Curlin and Rags would either have been much farther back or, if they tried to stay closer to the pace, not have any where near the closing kick they had. Say what you may but I think horses with high cruising speed are the toughest to beat.

[bellsbendboy]

Robert I must say you have come full circle this thread; from Robby riding poorly? ... to Curlin being brilliant the last half mile. Your velocity examples are terrific, but the Belmont, at twelve panels will never be a "formful" event. This rendition a perfect example when both Slew's Tizzy and Tiago become unglued a few hours before and Gomez and Prado a few seconds after the gates opened. An opinion that offers Robby rode poorly, or that Curlin bounced is held only by sore or serial losers. Great thread, BBB

[Robert Fischer]

An opinion that offers Robby rode poorly, or that Curlin bounced is held only by sore or serial losers.

Thanks a lot BBB. :confused:

i fall into the category of a serial loser btw:D

- also interested in hearing more about your turf rail placements

I think Curlin running a brilliant final Quarter after running a mediocre 10 furlongs, -and then losing to a worse open-field runner by a NOSE, is about as much evidence as anyone with your racing acumen could ever possibly ask for to say "hey - maybe Curlin didn't run the most efficient race".
Then again I don't think it is very realistic to say that is a bad ride - so maybe this thread has come full circle.

I don't know if it is realistic to expect Albarado to engage into Curlin's stride and force a change in the pace dynamics at 6 furlongs in that situation. It isn't a realistic expectation. They will ride conservatively and he was also hemmed in to discourage any ideas. He did run a great last quarter and had more horse than he "should have" but, on the other hand, he "did his job" and forced Rags to Riches to run a great last quarter and she did it. Great finish.

[PaceAdvantage]

It seems to me the Belmont was a textbook case for the bounce phenomenon and form cycle analysis.

Nah...more like a textbook case for pace (or lack thereof) and a filly with one heckuva final fraction advantage....

[cj]

To say Curlin bounced seems a bit much to me.

[NYPlayer]

Just slavishly considering the speed figures, TG gives Curlin a negative .5, which was 2.5 points slower than his negative 3 in the Preakness but still equal to his previous lifetime top. According to John’s Kuck figures he paired his Preakness figure of 82, so it depends on who’s figures you’re looking at, and that is without even considering other factors such as distance and the very different pace scenario in the Belmont.

Again, to say that Hard Spun “bounced significantly” without even considering he is not a 12-furlong horse, is to miss a very relevant factor.

To say that every horse that doesn’t replicate a big figure has “bounced”, with the further assumption that the previous effort was the only reason, without regard to the conditions in which the figures were earned, including different distances and widley varying paces, is more a textbook case of oversimplification than comprehensive form analysis.


Bob

So according to TG, Curlin bounced from his Preakness number, instead running a slower number that he had run previously. He certainly gave a good effort to finish second. A bounce should not always be associated with a poor race. However, I don't think Curlin will repeat his Preakness soon, and if he and Street Sense were entered in the Haskell, I would favor Street Sense.

Hard Spun has a DI of 2.76, and his Dam won at a mile and a half, so I don't know how you can say conclusively that he's not a 12 furlong horse. Anyway, he seemed hard pressed to run even a mile in the Belmont.

Finally, good figures take into account the conditions of the race, and the "wildly varing pace scenarios". One only needs good final time numbers to analyse how well a horse is doing form-wise. Horses will vary in performance according to physical condition. A new top number from a horse often results in a mild regression in the next start. That's all the bounce really is.

[NYPlayer]

Nah...more like a textbook case for pace (or lack thereof) and a filly with one heckuva final fraction advantage....

Of course! The slow pace that killed off all the speed that set it up for RTR's closing rally. It all makes perfect sense now.

[NYPlayer]

To say Curlin bounced seems a bit much to me.

It certainly is a bit much. Look at all the reaction just making that suggestion can generate!

[Kelso]

The slow pace that killed off all the speed that set it up for RTR's closing rally


I know virtually nothing about pace handicapping, and what I do know I have picked up on this site. That said, isn't a slow pace is supposed to allow the speed horses to stay fresh and then use their "opening" speed down the stretch, instead? Have heard often that closers need speed duels to open up races for their kick.

No??? :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

Of course! The slow pace that killed off all the speed that set it up for RTR's closing rally. It all makes perfect sense now.

On my numbers, her final fraction number was far superior to the rest of the field. She was relatively close to that SLOW PACE, and therefore, when the real running began with Curlin, she was able to hold him off....quite simple, really...

[PaceAdvantage]

I know virtually nothing about pace handicapping, and what I do know I have picked up on this site. That said, isn't a slow pace is supposed to allow the speed horses to stay fresh and then use their "opening" speed down the stretch, instead? Have heard often that closers need speed duels to open up races for their kick.

No??? :confused:

Obviously, NYPlayer's sarcasm was lost on you, but not me, his intended target...

A horse with a killer final fraction can benefit from a speed duel up front if said horse hangs back...OR with a slow pace like the Belmont, if said horse is ridden correctly (and closer to the pace, like RTR was), said horse can outkick the others turning for home (like the Belmont, or like a TURF race).

The numbers were there before the race, I was just too blind to consider the possibility that Curlin could be beaten by a horse with a decisive late edge.

But then again, 'bounce' is a much easier explanation...

[Kelso]

A horse with a killer final fraction can benefit from a speed duel up front if said horse hangs back...OR with a slow pace like the Belmont, if said horse is ridden correctly (and closer to the pace, like RTR was), said horse can outkick the others turning for home (like the Belmont, or like a TURF race).


Ah! That makes sense .... both running types then have something available for a roughly equidistant sprint to the wire. Thank you.

[classhandicapper]

On my numbers, her final fraction number was far superior to the rest of the field. She was relatively close to that SLOW PACE, and therefore, when the real running began with Curlin, she was able to hold him off....quite simple, really...

Would you mind explaining to me how you adjust your final fraction rating/thinking to account for pace?

Obviously, if a horse runs a faster pace it will come home slower and vice/versa. The relationship might not be perfect, but it's there.

That's one of the things I have trouble with when people look at late ratings and late energy and distance ability etc.. They often assume that the pace in today's race will be similar/identical to the race on which they are basing their late speed rating or distance ability. That's not always the case. I see faint hearted sprinters winning routes all the time and they finish well despite collapsing in sprints.

The reason I would love to explore that relationship is that IMO the Bluegrass was very instructive because it was so extreme.

1. Horses of very different ability finished very close together because of the slow pace. (not shocking, but it was extreme)

2. Even a horse like Teuflesberg came home extremely fast even though I wouldn't really categorize him as a good "late pace horse".

3. Street Sense, who in hindsight is obviously much better than the rest of that group, was outkicked late and matched by some of the others in the BG. That more or less suggests that inferior horses can sometimes have better late kick than superior horses when the pace is slow. The relationship between overall ability and late kick is not 100%.

[Pell Mell]

Would you mind explaining to me how you adjust your final fraction rating/thinking to account for pace?

Obviously, if a horse runs a faster pace it will come home slower and vice/versa. The relationship might not be perfect, but it's there.

That's one of the things I have trouble with when people look at late ratings and late energy and distance ability etc.. They often assume that the pace in today's race will be similar/identical to the race on which they are basing their late speed rating or distance ability. That's not always the case. I see faint hearted sprinters winning routes all the time and they finish well despite collapsing in sprints.

The reason I would love to explore that relationship is that IMO the Bluegrass was very instructive because it was so extreme.

1. Horses of very different ability finished very close together because of the slow pace. (not shocking, but it was extreme)

2. Even a horse like Teuflesberg came home extremely fast even though I wouldn't really categorize him as a good "late pace horse".

3. Street Sense, who in hindsight is obviously much better than the rest of that group, was outkicked late and matched by some of the others in the BG. That more or less suggests that inferior horses can sometimes have better late kick than superior horses when the pace is slow. The relationship between overall ability and late kick is not 100%.

3- I had mentioned several times on other threads that inferior horses can win when allowed to be close up because of the better horses not using their pace ability. I was more or less dismissed as an idiot.
Closers are usually at a distinct disadvantage unless allowed to get close to a slow pace or the speed totally collapses. Also, there is a lot of discussion about vulnerable favorites on the boards and IMHO favorites that come from off the pace are the one most likely to to get in the money but not win. It's usually said; "He should have moved sooner".

[Cratos]

It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs.

It appeared to be a conservative ride that resulted in Curlin running a slower race then he was capable.

An argument could be made that Albarado didn't carry Curlin's form forward from the Derby and Preakness. With the lack of pace, he got that forwardly placed position.
At some point on the backstretch(approaching midway?) Albarado should begin to gradually separate himself from these other horses. The strategy seemed to be "PLAY IT SAFE" "lets ride cautious in regards to the distance, and sit in the pack forever, and we are so good that we will prevail in the stretch...".

There is a point in time when they should have been opening up and win the race. You don't sit with a group of slower horses to play it safe and then outkick a mare. Sure you don't make a bold move with 6 furlongs to go, however you do start to gradually leave a slower group of horses. Keeping with the form/running style of the animal it would be comparable to making headway as if he were in a faster race vs. faster horses.

Sometimes you sit there in that pack for 10 or 11 furlongs, and then you find out it becomes a little more difficult to separate from the pack. Kicking home after a "marathon" isn't like flicking a light switch, at least not for Curlin, which is why you carry form forward in the race by using the running style of making headway on the backstretch (whether you are 8 lengths or 2 lengths back). It was very surprising to me that it took Curlin 2:28.74 to run 12 furlongs.

Sure there is always the possibility that if Curlin did leave the comfort of the nest, and leave that slow group of horses 5 to 10 lengths behind entering the turn, that Rags to Riches runs that much faster of a final time and runs him down anyway.

I agree in general with what you said, but in my opinion Albarado was Hard Spun-ed. He got caught up in the hype about Hard Spun and rode Curlin cautiously not to let Hard Spun beat him. However Johnny V came up from behind and slipped past him on RTR and it was all too late because the pace was not taxing for the filly and once she got the lead it was a sprint to the wire.

Not taking anything away from RTR, but I believe in a rematch regardless of the pace Curlin would win. Also a jockey change might be needed for Curlin and the jockey that I think might fit the horse’s running style is Javier Castellano.

[DanG]

3- I had mentioned several times on other threads that inferior horses can win when allowed to be close up because of the better horses not using their pace ability. I was more or less dismissed as an idiot.
Closers are usually at a distinct disadvantage unless allowed to get close to a slow pace or the speed totally collapses. Also, there is a lot of discussion about vulnerable favorites on the boards and IMHO favorites that come from off the pace are the one most likely to to get in the money but not win. It's usually said; "He should have moved sooner".
I hear you PM and agree concerning the majority of races.

I feel the line is getting blurred concerning our day in day out racing and the anachronism that is the Belmont.

This is not to disparage speed whatsoever as it’s the primary weapon in North America, but in so many grade one events, especially those at unusually distances other factors come into play IMO.

I remember attending a seminar several years ago given by James Quinn and his quote was “Class laughs at pace”. Now, that’s a broad generalization and impossible to quantify, but the cream of the crop can adapt and overcome many challenges that decide 99% of our races.

[GaryG]

II remember attending a seminar several years ago given by James Quinn and his quote was “Class laughs at pace”. Now, that’s a broad generalization and impossible to quantify, but the cream of the crop can adapt and overcome many challenges that decide 99% of our races.I attended several of the Quinn / Brohamer seminars in the early 90s. This was one statement that I took to heart. I believe he originally intended it for G1 stakes but it has many applications in day to day racing. As Cramer said in Kinky Handicapping "Class analysis has has becove deviant". Well, I have been called deviant before...

[Cratos]

I hear you PM and agree concerning the majority of races.

I feel the line is getting blurred concerning our day in day out racing and the anachronism that is the Belmont.

This is not to disparage speed whatsoever as it’s the primary weapon in North America, but in so many grade one events, especially those at unusually distances other factors come into play IMO.

I remember attending a seminar several years ago given by James Quinn and his quote was “Class laughs at pace”. Now, that’s a broad generalization and impossible to quantify, but the cream of the crop can adapt and overcome many challenges that decide 99% of our races.

In one of the turf magazines from many years ago there was statement that I always believed and use today: “Pace make the race, class wins the race.”

[46zilzal]

class (a defintion that is nebulous at best) is REACTION to the pace.

[Cratos]

class (a defintion that is nebulous at best) is REACTION to the pace.


I disagree with your assessment of “Class.” Class as it relates to horseracing is in my opinion “a horse’s ability to win consistently at a given level regardless of conditions and is a function of weight, pace, distance, and style."

For example, if a lowly claimer can consistently win at a given claim price regardless of weight, pace, distance, and style at that level it is class of that level. This example also applies to any other level of races including graded races. Also I will concur with Andy Beyer in that there is class within class. In other words there is class stratification.

The trick is to identify the class in a given race and that is a more difficult task, but when you do you most in likely will be heading for the cashier’s window.

[GaryG]

class (a defintion that is nebulous at best) is REACTION to the pace.Absolutely not true, never has been and never will.

[NYPlayer]

Ah! That makes sense .... both running types then have something available for a roughly equidistant sprint to the wire. Thank you.

The trouble with that is both of the pace setters, CP West and Slews Tizzy, finished poorly. That's inconsistent with the idea that a slow pace is supposed to benefit the front runners. PA (and others) conveniently skip over this inconsistency, and yet insist that the final results were due to a slow pace. If the pace were truly slow, the front runners would have held on well into the stretch, and the front runners, together with the closers, would have been bunched at the finish, such as happened in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.

My contention is that some horses that had run well previousley were simply not physically able to repeat those efforts in the Belmont, while RTR was ready to improve. Had she gotten a clean break and ran closer to the inside, she would have won by a few lengths.

[Tom]

Class is not related to pace except that a classy horse can overcome pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Velocities at 8 furlongs and AFTER furlongs
name distance velocity ft/second
Preakness
CP WEST avgAtMILE 55.5.... 6-8SPLIT 52.7 8-9.5 SPLIT 51.3
CURLIN avgAtMILE 55.6........6-8SPLIT 54.6 8-9.5 SPLIT 53.4

BELMONT
CP WEST avgAtMILE 52.7.........................8-10SPLIT 53.2 10-12 SPLIT 49.9
CURLIN avgAtMILE 52.6............................8-10 SPLIT 53.7 10-12 SPLIT 55.4
The trouble with that is both of the pace setters, CP West and Slews Tizzy, finished poorly. That's inconsistent with the idea that a slow pace is supposed to benefit the front runners. PA (and others) conveniently skip over this inconsistency, and yet insist that the final results were due to a slow pace. If the pace were truly slow, the front runners would have held on well into the stretch, and the front runners, together with the closers, would have been bunched at the finish, such as happened in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.


some factors
1.Lengths in front
2."gas" in the tank (pace so far and pedigree@distance )
3.Top Speed (ability to kick fast for the final furlongs)

1.Lengths in front: @ 10 furlongs RTR, Curlin, HS, CP all within a length (no advantage)
2."gas" in the tank: Curlin and Rags have plenty of stamina while HS and CP are significantly less than the top 2, but close to each other.
3.Top Speed: Curlin and Rags are blessed with exceptional late kicks. HS and CP have only mediocre late kick ability.

^While the answer to #1 cannot be known until the horses are actually 10 furlongs into the race, the answers to #'s 2 and 3 are attained from previous form and logical projection.

The short answer is that CP West (and Slew's Tizzy) had less quality and were not lengths ahead. Pedigree likely played more of a factor at the distance.

What I got from Pace Advantage's mention of final fraction is that had he known the pace and tactics of the race, the information actually pointed to Rags To Riches and Curlin. The final fraction numbers gave Rags To Riches a real chance.


The Bluegrass is interesting as a comparison. What makes that race tricky to compare to the Belmont is that it is 3 furlongs shorter so we aren't going that far past anyone's pedigree limits, and run on the synthetic track.
Surface pedigree comes into play heavily. Borel was trying to prep Street Sense from off the pace, and Prado was running wild with Tueflesberg.
Both Races did feature slow paces and fast finishes.

[PaceAdvantage]

The trouble with that is both of the pace setters, CP West and Slews Tizzy, finished poorly.

Pace can only help you so much if you're overmatched to begin with. And Slews Tizzy was WAY overmatched....I thought CP West would run better...

[Kelso]

[QUOTE=NYPlayer]
My contention is that some horses that had run well previousley were simply not physically able to repeat those efforts in the Belmont, while RTR was ready to improve.
[QUOTE]

Form over style? That, also, works for me. Thank you.