Trip Handicapping

[Tom]

OK, I occassionally hear about a horse not changing leads. Then today, I am hearing it every half hour.


Curlin, had to pushed change last time.


Smoky Chimney - wins big last out, never changes leads, ditto today but cannot win over a horse with an inferior figure.


Bordanaro forced wide and fails to change leads, and also adds front wraps first time today.
What do you do with this information now?
Why did Curlin have to be forced to change leads - isn't it natural to do? At low odds today, what if they can't get him to do it? Is this a big negative?

Smoky - two in a row on change - how do you look at this guy next time out? Will there be some kind of equipment change to suggest he will change?

Bordanaro - is the failure to change related to the addition of wraps?
Was the forced out a coincidence or is there trouble with his legs?

Damn you Fat_Man.....you got me looking at this stuff now. Next thing you know, I'll be looking at replays! :eek:;)

[the_fat_man]

Damn you Fat_Man.....you got me looking at this stuff now. Next thing you know, I'll be looking at replays! :eek:;)


Two of the most amazing races this year, from a lead perspective are


Came to Pass ---1st time out 1/13/07 at GP


Pyramid Love ---- 4/18/07 Race 8 at KEE



I had a thread about the latter's race. Came to Pass' race is amazing.


Fire up calracing.com and check them out. Make sure you watch the headons so you can see what lead they're on in the turns (and the backstretch).

[robert99]

In UK, with right and left hand tracks changing leads to the inner is done on the turns as in US, but on the straight the horse keeps its natural lead (usually left side). It is taken as a bad sign that the horse would ever change leads other than on a bend - ie a sign of tiring or pain and also loses one stride of propulsion. In US, as I understand it, horses are forced to lead on right leg in the straight and that is taken as a good sign? Some horses are unwilling to change leads for no good reason, and bigger horses, not capable of flying changes, may require extra sideways room to do this, which may not always be available in a crowded race.

[thelyingthief]

say that Secretariat changed leads without being taught--however, few horses do this naturally. and, interestingly enough, a horse that changes leads promiscuously often shows up on the injury list later.

sometimes, as a commentator remarked, describing a dominating performance, the horse is bored and decides skipping home is more appropriate.

[classhandicapper]

IMO there are two ways to look at the lead change issue.

1. If he learns to do it properly he can improve.

2. Something may be wrong with him and he may have trouble stretching out.

There is no rule. I don't think Alydar ever learned to change leads properly. In Curlin's case I would lean towards thinking he's still a little green and can improve.

Bearing out usually indicates a physical issue.

Bordonaro was carried out by Keyed Entry. But if you look at Keyed Entry's record it screams that this horse has some physical problems. He's had some very good races, but he's also had some horrible races and a few long layoffs. That's not normal. If you know/suspect that a horse has a problem, I think you always have to be slightly skeptical because he can head south at any point.

Bordonaro also appears to have issues. His recent races were not up to his best standards last year, he recently missed a scheduled race in CA, and he showed up with front bandages.

I think those two were both pretty good horses to bet against that day and I would remain skeptical of both recovering their best form until I see some evidence of better condition.

In fact, after that effort I would not be shocked to see Keyed Entry laid off again.

[Hank]

Keyed entry's workout spacing screamed problems, even right on top of the race he could only be worked every 10 to 12 days.

[the_fat_man]

But in the late '70's, when I was introduced to racing by a classmate, Frank Martin was the top (claiming) trainer in NY. And 'Pancho' would have a barn full of old runners. SOme of these were horses that were very good when younger but as they got older they regressed to cheap(er) claiming levels. ANd they all had an number of problems. You'd see them in the paddock with 4 bandages and some even noticably had trouble walking. I remember there was one horse that had quite a winning streak going and they'd have to run him up and down the shed row to loosen him up behind so that he could pass the vet and get in the race.

But, it seemed that for a brief period of time, almost every one of these oldtimers would get real good and run real fast times. ANd they combined to win alot of races for Pancho. And surprisingly few of them broke down.

And while those gifted in identifying UNSOUND horses were taking notes, Pancho's boys (and I, since I was buddies with one of them) were CASHING; repeatedly.

We're blessed here on PA with some astute PSEUDO HORSEMEN who are able to pick out all the horses that have physical problems. But, it gets even better than that: AFTER THE RACE, they're able to explain why horses that broke down (or had other physical issues during the race) could actually have been identified BEFORE the race.

Needless to say:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzz


Now, back on topic.

[Hank]

But in the late '70's, when I was introduced to racing by a classmate, Frank Martin was the top (claiming) trainer in NY. And 'Pancho' would have a barn full of old runners. SOme of these were horses that were very good when younger but as they got older they regressed to cheap(er) claiming levels. ANd they all had an number of problems. You'd see them in the paddock with 4 bandages and some even noticably had trouble walking. I remember there was one horse that had quite a winning streak going and they'd have to run him up and down the shed row to loosen him up behind so that he could pass the vet and get in the race.

But, it seemed that for a brief period of time, almost every one of these oldtimers would get real good and run real fast times. ANd they combined to win alot of races for Pancho. And surprisingly few of them broke down.

And while those gifted in identifying UNSOUND horses were taking notes, Pancho's boys (and I, since I was buddies with one of them) were CASHING; repeatedly.

We're blessed here on PA with some astute PSEUDO HORSEMEN who are able to pick out all the horses that have physical problems. But, it gets even better than that: AFTER THE RACE, they're able to explain why horses that broke down (or had other physical issues during the race) could actually have been identified BEFORE the race.

Needless to say:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzz


Now, back on topic.


Wow you put a lot of words in my mouth fats, check the PPs its there n black in white for all to see.If someone disagrees or has a problem with what I actually SAY thats fine, but you post is confusing I did not say, OH thats right Your an Asshole my bad, I plum forgot But its ok I dont hold it against you.:lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

We're blessed here on PA with some astute PSEUDO HORSEMEN who are able to pick out all the horses that have physical problems. But, it gets even better than that: AFTER THE RACE, they're able to explain why horses that broke down (or had other physical issues during the race) could actually have been identified BEFORE the race.

I actually agree with fat_man's sentiments here. It irks me to no end when folks come on here claiming they knew some horse was going to break down beforehand or it was just SO obvious some horse had physical problems....

Unless you're in the barn, you really never KNOW....

Carry on....

[46zilzal]

Unless you're in the barn, you really never KNOW....



Even a lot of the folks back there don't, or cannot know IF/WHEN the breakdowns may/will occur.

[Hank]

[QUOTE=Hank]Keyed entry's workout spacing screamed problems, even right on top of the race he could only be worked every 10 to 12 days.[/QUOTE


I guess this is a problem with this form of communication.I BET Keyed Entry LOL:D,when He raced the way he did, I did a post mortem looking for clues to his problems and noted his delicate 10 to 12 day workout pattern spacing on top of the race.
I was just pointing out that yes SOME clues to his infirmitys WERE there.

[ranchwest]

I actually agree with fat_man's sentiments here. It irks me to no end when folks come on here claiming they knew some horse was going to break down beforehand or it was just SO obvious some horse had physical problems....

Unless you're in the barn, you really never KNOW....

Carry on....

Most of the horses I've seen break down were really running.

Most of the horses I've seen with serious physical problems before the race don't run as fast as the ones that break down. So, I think that's probably why they don't break down. They run very gingerly and slowly.

If you haven't seen really badly damaged horses, you haven't watched enough cheap races at cheap tracks.

This brings up something I want to ask about. There was a horse at MNR tonight that had some sort of band or wrap that looked to be about maybe an inch or two inches wide about mid-way on its hind legs. I saw this same thing at LS one time except on all four legs. Both horses ran very poorly. Can anyone tell me more about this?

[Pgh. Gere]

Ranch- Sounds to me like they were "blowouts" or "stops". One of the Takach articles about negative equipment refers to these. Basically, the horse's legs keep hitting themselves and cause cuts. The tape is an attempt to ease the pain and or block that from happening. Could that be what you saw?

[DanG]

Keyed entry's workout spacing screamed problems, even right on top of the race he could only be worked every 10 to 12 days.
PA & Fats,

I don’t know what Hank said that was so outrageous. :confused:

I had two big red “?” next to Keyed Entry and Bordanaro for the very reasons Tommy mentioned staring the thread and his horrible pace number coming in.

Keyed Entry has always been a total nut job and in and out of training. Hank didn’t predict a breakdown…nobody can, he just stated that the horse had issues…which he does. 3 races in the last year for a young sprinter means problems. Pletcher himself when interviewed before the race said…”I don’t trust him”.

[ranchwest]

Ranch- Sounds to me like they were "blowouts" or "stops". One of the Takach articles about negative equipment refers to these. Basically, the horse's legs keep hitting themselves and cause cuts. The tape is an attempt to ease the pain and or block that from happening. Could that be what you saw?

I was under the impression that blowouts and stops were used on the inside of the leg and were usually large enough to be easily visible.

The items I saw were fairly small, maybe about an inch, and went all the way around the leg, just above the hock/knee. From a distance, they look sorta like a rubber band.

[Tom]

Maybe an equine version of those knee braces people use?

[ranchwest]

Maybe an equine version of those knee braces people use?

Yeah, just as a guess they appear to be providing support of some sort.

I know quite a bit about horses (for a handicapper), but unfortunately 99% of it is from the other side of the fence. There's a lot I don't know.

[classhandicapper]

Fat_man,

There are often tons of clues in the PPs that a horse has/had physical problems. I can't tell if a horse has problems from looking at it. But I often know or at least strongly suspect it from the PPS.

You'd have to not understand the PPs at all to not at least suspect that Keyed Entry and Bordonaro have/had problems (before the fact).

It's OK that suspecting a horse "has problems" based on the PPs doesn't always translate into a subpar effort or the horse breaking down. Some problem horses win before they eventually go south and others recover given some time.

It translates often enough to allow you to adjust your thinking about the apporiate odds so you get better betting results.

[classhandicapper]

I actually agree with fat_man's sentiments here. It irks me to no end when folks come on here claiming they knew some horse was going to break down beforehand or it was just SO obvious some horse had physical problems....
Unless you're in the barn, you really never KNOW....

Carry on....

You can never know when a horse is going to break down. That's impossible.

What you can know is that top notch horses in good condition don't get laid off constantly, miss works, run dramatically sub par races prior to their layoff, skip races that the trainer said publicly they were aiming for etc.... unless the horse has/had problems.

It then becomes a probability issue.

All else being equal, would you rather play the horse that is racing and working on schedule and performing consistently or the one that just missed his last race, skipped a few workouts, shows up with bandages for the first time, has consistently been an in and outer, is constantly throwing in duds and getting laid off, is much older and on the downside etc....

[Valuist]

I'll predict a horse that will have a good chance of breaking down. I believe the horse's name is Fifteen Rounds, trained by Christine Janks and a solid veteran on the AP-Haw circuit. This horse paddles very badly; as bad as any decent horse I've ever seen. I'll give the horse credit for lasting so long but I don't think he has much left in those legs.