Extreme Favorites Again

[sligg]

My first workout was in March 07 in which I posted the results. I skipped April to give me time to digest my results. My next test was for May 07. I will post both tests. I'm using the TSN Advantage Data at $59.95 per month. It does get expensive.

I used all the available tracks listed where there was a qualified bet.

Results for 3/07 and 5/07:

Month Bets $ Won $ Bet $ Net ROI W %

March 53 136.1 106 30.1 28.4 79.2
May 58 132.8 116 16.8 14.5 75.9

The encouraging thing is that both months showed a profit. Because the win percentage is so high, HMI doesn't work well for this sample. Flat bets seem to be the way to go.

This is not an enjoyable way to play the horses. You can have a bet at 1:00 and a late bet at 11:00. So you're stuck at a computer to bet online. Most of the bets are at the minor tracks.

One answer is to bet in advance as all these horses will go off as the favorite at odds less than even.

The win % for both months is startling. How can it possibly continue at that rate? Are these favorites so special? I don't know. As has been postulated many times on this forum: There are no absolutes in racing but this is as close as you can come. And yet, you can't make a lot of money. Betting $200 per bet would have returned $4690 for the two months. That's about $500 a week-nothing to get excited for.

Sligg

P.S. The table doesn't line up well.

[pandy]

If you had actually bet $200 on each horse the odds of the winners would've dropped, lowering your ROI substantially, especially at the smaller tracks.

[DeanT]

Those are impressive thus far, Sligg. Congrats.

Question: Are you using favorite filters to come up with your plays, or are you betting them somewhat blindly based on odds?

Secondly, I think Ian's Premier Turf Club website has, or almost has, if then betting where you could load those bets up and let the interface bet them for you. Not 100% sure on that, but I thought that was the case.

Anyway, nice work so far and congrats again.

[ryesteve]

If you had actually bet $200 on each horse the odds of the winners would've dropped, lowering your ROI substantially
His average winner is going off at just 1/2. With that much money already on the horses, the drop his $200 would cause would not be "substantial".

[pandy]

It depends on the track handle. He said that he is playing small circuits. I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just pointing out the realities of betting real money as compared to "on paper."

[chickenhead]

low odds horses can absorb large bets even in small pools. In a $20K pool he could bet much more than $200. Many multiples of that amount if he really wanted to "max out". It would lower his ROI, but he would win more money. If these horses were 10-1, he would be maxed out at $200.

The same edge is worth more on low odds horses than longshots, even ignoring the bankroll runout implications.

[andicap]

And an 8% rebate would help make up for any drops in the odds.

At $200 a bet, he would get about $850 back in rebates -- not too shabby.

[ryesteve]

It depends on the track handle. He said that he is playing small circuits. I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just pointing out the realities of betting real money as compared to "on paper."
And I'm not trying to be a nitpicker either. In general, you're absolutely correct, but because this is a special case, where he'd be betting horses at such unusually low odds, most tracks would be able to absorb $200 into the win pool without reducing the odds at all. Even at the small tracks (unless of course we're talking about carnival circuits), the odds drop would not be "substantial" at all.

[ryesteve]

And an 8% rebate would help make up for any drops in the odds.
With only 50 or so bets a month, would he be able to bet enough to qualify for 8%?

[chickenhead]

your original posted March numbers are a little different than what you posted here. Did you go back and tweak your approach before or after you did May? You have to quit backfitting before any of the numbers are "real".

Bets: 74
Won: 54
Win %: 73.0
$ Won: 177.7
ROI %: 20.1

[sligg]

And an 8% rebate would help make up for any drops in the odds.

At $200 a bet, he would get about $850 back in rebates -- not too
shabby.

Where can you get the 8% rebate?

[sligg]

your original posted March numbers are a little different than what you posted here. Did you go back and tweak your approach before or after you did May? You have to quit backfitting before any of the numbers are "real".


I made one change: Trainer and jockey win % had to be at least 10% for each.
That is the only rule I use. There are no other tweaks.

[andicap]

Where can you get the 8% rebate?

I guess I was referring to Pinnacle, but 5dimes.com DOES take U.S. accounts and you can fund through Western Union (they'll even pay the WU transaction fee) and pays 10% extra on profits from winners (18 cents on a $3.80 winner).

Since you're not betting longshots you don't have to worry about the limits on payouts.

I figured out in your case it would add up to roughly a 4.5% rebate (75% winners at average of about $3.20), still not too shabby.

[badcompany]

This is the type of system that is made possible by simulcasting. In the past you wouldn't have had enough plays to make any real money even if the system worked.

Do you use harness as well? Doing so, would definitely give you many more plays. Plus you could use post position as a factor.