DAVE is running tomorrow ---let's do the race

[the_fat_man]

DAVE, on just about everyone's poor trip list off his race in that NYBRED KINGSTON stake, is going tomorrow at BEL in the 8th. Morning line, 3:1.

I don't like him. I would prefer Golden Commander off that last race. If he were value, that is; which he won't be.

Oops, forgot to mention the freakish Trippi's Storm is in there as well. But he's on the AE list and probably won't draw in.

The race is interesting and there might be some value elsewhere. Which might be important as CUTE COGNAC in going in tomorrow's 9th (Tagg double with Dave?) and she probably won't be much of a price (even with Pletcher in the race).

Opinions.

[OTM Al]

Silver Whistle is the morning line fave and it is well deserved. He ran pretty well last year against the best of the best. Bill Mott is strong on the turf and bringing off a layoff. The quality he seems capable running with though makes one wonder though if this is work that could have a check attached if all goes well.

If you want to pick a bomb, I'd take Thunder Pass. He may be a little too slow, but he has been well placed on the stretch call, which is something I always look at on turf. It would be more impressive though if he wasn't such a front runner, but he will be around coming for home.

Trippi's Storm has done well with the switch to turf but he's running against much more experienced horses than he ever has. Might get a little schooling tomorrow. Of the horses on the improve, I would prefer Mystic Ruler as he has an established consistant level as opposed to Trippi's who just ran a big top. So I would probably make a small play with him on top

Golden Commander seems to be a must use underneath for me, but would not take him to win. Same for Dave.

[the_fat_man]

I think if Trippi's Storm gets in he's very competitive. He accelerates like a nice horse. What I do depends on whether he's draws in or not.

And, I didn't mean to imply that my bet is GC; only that I like him over Dave based on their last race. More precisely, that Dave is going to be overbet off his 'trouble trip' and IMO is a sucker bet.

[Robert Fischer]

Interesting to see Sunriver finally try turf. He is a full brother to Saint Stephen, who is primarily a turf horse.

[o_crunk]

i'll go with mystic ruler. play on top of thunder pass, nergal and cosmic kris.

[Robert Fischer]

Dave will get some money here. Maybe a little more than he should. I think TFM knows exactly what happened in the Kingston.
Dave may have also lost some momentum at the same time as that next-to-last split and was maybe the only one who gained any ground there. Dave will give an honest effort and always tries.

Golden Commander is such a tough horse. He came back from that tendon in 05. He really kind of uses 1 lead now. Probably a horse who is better off of a layoff than 2nd or 3rd start in the cycle at this point. Would be a surprise if makes any big move. He is a tough horse he could be right there 2nd or 3rd and maybe win if all goes his way.

Mystic Ruler is well thought of. He has been entered in a lot of recent stakes. There is a pretty good chance that he takes to the distance. He will need to run his last race back to win here.

Rock Lobster is sharp here. This horse may be a little one paced. He gets another pretty good opportunity today on the stretch out.

Nergal looks like a decent horse. Gomez will be asking this one at the top of the stretch.

I don't like Thunder Pass here. He does add some pace intrigue. Last race Coa screwed up and failed to establish the lead out of the gate:bang:. Thunder Pass could set a slow pace today. If he does maybe it changes things a little. I don't know if it gives a horse like Silver Whistle a better chance to hang close and kick late.

Trippi's Storm changes the dynamics if he runs.

[Ron]

There goes Tagg again making another horse suffer in a meager race. Poor Dave! :lol:

[tholl]

With little pace Mystic Knight should get a great stalking spot. He has pedigree, is fresh and working well and has an overpriced ML of 8/1. Great bet at 5/1+ I think. Thunder Pass will get the lead and may hang in for some, while Nergal will be dangerous closing.

[Tee]

I'll take #3 Nergal

[Ron]

It looks like the Grade 1 horses went 1-2-3.

[JustRalph]

I guess anybody that runs 3-5 lengths behind Barbaro.........shouldn't be ignored........ :bang:

http://www.justralph.com/8th_bel_6-7-07.jpg

[bellsbendboy]

I am perplexed how decent handicappers can overlook the placement of the turf rail. For this race, the rail was out as far as it can be, eighteen feet, and the winner went wire to wire!!! Sunriver had class, connections, recency and faced a very favorable setup, yet paid some $16, winning well clear. I did not see the form, or even the race for that matter, but today all over the internet, out of perhaps a hundred posts, plays or selections, no one mentioned that the rail was out! BBB

[the_fat_man]

The PERPLEXION continues.

6/6/07 rail set at 18 feet on the turf as well

ONE wire to wire winner ---towered over the field

6/03/07 rail set at 18 feet on the turf

4 races ----ZERO wire jobs


what's your point?

I won't bother to look for any others

[Robert Fischer]

Sunriver beat those horses bad.

He fit the turf like his brother. He fit the inner like a glove

backup bets:rolleyes:
I went after Mystic Ruler in some trifectas and my backup exacta was ALL/Sunriver :bang:
Nice ride by Dominguez nice run by Sun. I even put horses over the 9 Silver Whistle. I had bums like thunder pass over the 9 :bang:


- Mystic Ruler didn't look that big in the post parade. Nergal was a big animal.


Solid pedigree for turf , first time turf, mediocre recent dirt form... = DONT BET AGAINST

So that is 3 dirt to turf moves I have been wrong about (Steppenwolfer,SummerDoldrums,Sunriver)
This is getting bad like JAWS, you start wondering when they will stop swimming in those waters??

I had to beat Pletcher and Chris Block in an Arlington 10c/ super just to get my money back!

[OTM Al]

Who knew? Sunriver had acted like a complete dud for too long. I'd forgotten that he was full to a good turf runner, though if I'd remembered I would have assumed he just didn't run well on the stuff as they hadn't tried him there earlier. He keeps this up, he may just have a career. Makes you wonder if Ashado could have stepped up her game on the grass as well (and that would have been something to see). Silver Whistle did pick up a check for his workout and will probably run better next out. The real shocker here is Classic Pack!

[the_fat_man]

The REAL shocker was Mystic Ruler. I looked at the FatChart for the KEE race and then the race itself. The horse ran incredibly. Wide, between horses, full or run late, etc. Then I also watched the replays of his GP races. Sucked up INSIDE going a mile, couldn't get to the winner after a nice trip. Then he SUCKS UP again, and comes though on the inside to win the following race doing alot more work than he should've given his trip. Then the KEE race. What a contrast. A huge improvement trip wise. A usually sucking up horse wide both turns and having to work through traffic rather than slip through on the rail. So, I was licking my chops expecting 7 or 8:1. This was before I posted this thread.

Then I took a look at Liftin's selections: had him on top. There go the odds, I thought.

Then OTM AL picks him here; and a couple of others do, as well.

Then I'm watching the prerace show on the OTB channel and one of the JRODs there picks him. :lol:

Need i say more?

Wouldn't have touched him at 8:1 at that point.

Nothing personal with all the fine selectors mentioned but if you GOT IT
I MISSED IT.

Realistically, why gauge a horse based on a single HUGE effort when he hasn't shown he can replicate it?

Eased

[Murph]

Who knew?

Thorostats users enjoyed a nice score in this race. Good form and a turf pedigree. Hard to ignore at odd like that.

Murph

Class: 9-1-6-7Pace: 3-1-2-4Connections: 1-7-12-3Power: 1-3-7-2
PP Horses ML odds LR Run Style F Cls LRCls L3RW/P% L2YW/P% @TrkW/P% @Dst Spd LRSpd 2R Spd 3R Pwr #Adj odds
1SUNRIVER
10/1 19 P 10 110 108 45% 66% 50% 127 105 118 115 2/1
3NERGAL
5/1 55 P 6 106 105 37% 0% 100% 106 144 126 74 8/1
7MYSTIC RULER
8/1 50 P 4 106 104 66% 50% 0% 104 116 110 61 11/1
2CLASSIC PACK
20/1 25 P 8 106 106 35% 33% 33% 106 119 109 52 13/1
9SILVER WHISTLE
6/1 215 S 4 110 108 50% 66% 50% 114 98 101 47 14/1
4COSMIC KRIS
12/1 39 S 6 110 106 30% 0% 50% 114 107 109 46 14/1

[bellsbendboy]

Yeah FatMan

I enjoy some of your posts. My point is that almost all handicappers, do not understand how the movement of the turf rail affects the outcome of the turf race. Clearly, and without malice, you are in this group.

Ask yourself, Do come from behind horses benefit from a fast pace? Then ask yourself do horses run faster around a turn "or" in a straight?

"Your surprise" with Mystic Ruler finishing last is equally perplexing given his history. Race... 10 months off . race 50 days off ...race 180 days off etc.

I wish you no ill will, but your inability to grasp this simple concept of the turf rail movement, and how it affects the outcome, is eroding your chance of making any profit at all. BBB

[the_fat_man]

Yeah FatMan

I enjoy some of your posts. My point is that almost all handicappers, do not understand how the movement of the turf rail affects the outcome of the turf race. Clearly, and without malice, you are in this group.

Ask yourself, Do come from behind horses benefit from a fast pace? Then ask yourself do horses run faster around a turn "or" in a straight?

"Your surprise" with Mystic Ruler finishing last is equally perplexing given his history. Race... 10 months off . race 50 days off ...race 180 days off etc.

I wish you no ill will, but your inability to grasp this simple concept of the turf rail movement, and how it affects the outcome, is eroding your chance of making any profit at all. BBB

WTF are you going on about?

I wasn't PERPLEXED by MR's race. I watched his two previous efforts in GP and knew that OFF THOSE RACES HE WASN'T MUCH.

Now, I only looked through a couple of days on my back charts but the rail was set at 18 feet. I've thus YET to grasp your point.

READ MY LIPS: horses win when they're primed for a good effort and get a good setup. You can typically pick those horses out by watching their races.

You really need to watch more races and stop assuming things from information in the form.

P.S. didn't see you around after the Preakness after CURLIN put a foot in your 'unbeatable' SS's ASS. (So much so, that the connections BAILED in the Belmont.)

Did it feel good?

P.P.S.

I'm slapping you on ignore cause you make a habit of being a nuisance. I know you need the attention but SUCK IT UP, Ace, you have nothing of interest to say to me.

[OTM Al]

Its funny that you would say that Fat Man. I know you don't use speed figures, but if you did, what you said would exactly match the form of Trippi's Storm, who you really liked. Will never know how he would have done, so moot point. To me, Mystic Ruler looked to be consistantly in the same position with a very consistant competitive rate of speed. Looks like both our techniques bombed on this one, though to be technical my top pick was Silver Whistle, but Mystic Ruler was the only other I picked to use on top, but rereading, I didn't make that wholly clear.

To give you an idea of what I do on turf races, I should give you the basis of the way I play them. 1st I look for a horse that is close up regularly in the stretch call. This is a horse that avoids trouble and puts himself in position to win. Second I look at class. Class on turf I feel holds better than on dirt. These two factors pointed me to Silver Whistle right away. The final thing I look at is the figure. Slow horses can have themselves in good position against their peers, but if they are making a big step up, the difference here is usually glaring. Now you can understand why I saw Thunder Pass as a potential bomb as he was in good position, but his class and figs were just a little weak. Anyway, this very simple setup has done pretty well for me and I find it very potent at the stakes level.

As for the Thorostats coment, I guess I would say that's nice. His form looked mediocre to me though I might be biased as this horse was a wiseguy horse way too many times and has been over bet most of his career. If I saw him going at 8-1 I probably would have still felt the same way. The turf pedigree can be that, "oh that makes sense" after the race, but as I said before, the fact it took so long to try him there would have made me think this was a despiration move rather than one of calculation

[keilan]

WTF are you going on about?

I wasn't PERPLEXED by MR's race. I watched his two previous efforts in GP and knew that OFF THOSE RACES HE WASN'T MUCH.

Now, I only looked through a couple of days on my back charts but the rail was set at 18 feet. I've thus YET to grasp your point.

READ MY LIPS: horses win when they're primed for a good effort and get a good setup. You can typically pick those horses out by watching their races.

You really need to watch more races and stop assuming things from information in the form.

P.S. didn't see you around after the Preakness after CURLIN put a foot in your 'unbeatable' SS's ASS. (So much so, that the connections BAILED in the Belmont.)

Did it feel good?

P.P.S.

I'm slapping you on ignore cause you make a habit of being a nuisance. I know you need the attention but SUCK IT UP, Ace, you have nothing of interest to say to me.



Fats -- it's late and I'm tired. But let me say that BBB does make a good point about rails out and front running horses.

goodnight :sleeping:

[Tom]

Belmont turf, both courses, rails set at 0 feet and 24 feet ( the furthest setting) show the following stats for FCP and FC Beaten lengths since 2005:
(a dozen or so races are missing rail data and were not included)
There is a big difference in the number of races in each sample. I will combine 18 feet and 24 feet tonight and see if that makes sense.

[tholl]

I am perplexed how decent handicappers can overlook the placement of the turf rail. For this race, the rail was out as far as it can be, eighteen feet, and the winner went wire to wire!!! Sunriver had class, connections, recency and faced a very favorable setup, yet paid some $16, winning well clear. I did not see the form, or even the race for that matter, but today all over the internet, out of perhaps a hundred posts, plays or selections, no one mentioned that the rail was out! BBB

How would you know that Sunriver would get the lead going 48:0 ? How would you know that the speed on paper, Thunder Pass, would let him have the easy lead ? How would you know that Mystic Ruler, one of few others with pace would have a problem ?

More relevant than the rail being out was the lack of pace in the race.(especially as it turned out). I believe that Sunriver would have won wherever the rail was placed if allowed to go 48 to the half uncontested.

[keilan]

How would you know that Sunriver would get the lead going 48:0 ? How would you know that the speed on paper, Thunder Pass, would let him have the easy lead ?


It's called handicapping sometimes we're right and sometimes we're not.

[tholl]

It's called handicapping sometimes we're right and sometimes we're not.

Bellsbendboy said in his post he did not see the form..therefore I would not call it "handicapping" but "redboarding" lol

[bellsbendboy]

Nice job again Tom. Thanks. BBB

[the little guy]

Bellsbendboy said in his post he did not see the form..therefore I would not call it "handicapping" but "redboarding" lol


You are 100% correct.

Making Sunriver the speed, based on his pps, was near impossible.