Rags To Riches is in the Belmont

[GaryG]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/85528.html

Now that adds some interest.

[point given]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/85528.html

Now that adds some interest.

Thank you. Finally a horse to root for :jump: Could be history here now .

[GaryG]

22 fillies have tried with 2 of them winning...last time in 1905. I would love to see Rags win it.

[Bruddah]

SHE's TOAST...Look for the real winner in I'mawildandcrazyguy, even though I will be be pulling for Curlin. Now that I have expressed my much confused state of mind, I will shut up! :confused: :)

[Hajck Hillstrom]

SHE's TOAST.

You left out a few words describing her, as SHE will be the TOAST of the town on Saturday.

I didn't think it possible that Pletcher would enter her, but now that he has, I have a Belmont filly to hang my hat on!

Finally, we get the acid test to my statement in March that "RAGS TO RICHES is the finest 3 year old in all the land!"

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[46zilzal]

Only a literal handful of fillies have ever been entered in this race. Geunine Risk finished behind Temperence Hill in 1980; the first to even run in recent times was 1954 when Riverina finished 7th. Two fillies have won it, but in 1867 and 1905. My Flag ran third in 96 and Silverbulletday finishing 7th, Winning Colors ran 6th in 88.

[Greyfox]

Only a literal handful of fillies have ever been entered in this race. Geunine Risk finished behind Temperence Hill in 1980; the first to even run in recent times was 1954 when Riverina finished 7th. Two fillies have won it, but in 1867 and 1905. My Flag ran third in 96 and Silverbulletday finishing 7th, Winning Colors ran 6th in 88.

I'm with you 46Z. I don't like her chances.
I will buy a small win ticket on her though.
If she wins I won't cash it. I'll frame it. Down the road it may be a collectors item.

[Ron]

This is neat. I thought usually we saw fields shrink as the race gets closer. Now also CP West has been added.

[Wickel]

Kudos to Pletcher for taking a shot. Here's hoping that Gomez sets a blistering pace with Hard Spun to pave the way for what should have been his mount--Rags to Riches.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Kudos to Pletcher for taking a shot. Here's hoping that Gomez sets a blistering pace with Hard Spun to pave the way for what should have been his mount--Rags to Riches. I couldn't agree more!

[46zilzal]

Kudos to Pletcher for taking a shot. Here's hoping that Gomez sets a blistering pace with Hard Spun to pave the way for what should have been his mount--Rags to Riches.
No colts survive anything faster than 1:11 (unless your name is Secretariat). Hard Spun is one of those that will go JUST as fast as necessary and no faster. If no one bothers him, he will be around a long time although I doubt he will get his picture taken. He style screams "Shorter."

One always has to look for the "plodders" (the Editor's Note or Birdstone or Jazil types) here that can, modestly, run all day.

[point given]

No colts survive anything faster than 1:11 (unless your name is Secretariat). Hard Spun is one of those that will go JUST as fast as necessary and no faster. If no one bothers him, he will be around a long time although I doubt he will get his picture taken. He style screams "Shorter."

One always has to look for the "plodders" (the Editor's Note or Birdstone or Jazil types) here that can, modestly, run all day.

That would mean Imawildandcrazyguy ,whose trainer went to the same high school as i did, so a Rags and Crazyguy exacta box it will be.

[JustRalph]

One always has to look for the "plodders" (the Editor's Note or Birdstone or Jazil types) here that can, modestly, run all day.

If I remember right, Jazil was up very much closer to the pace and stayed there........and ran a big race to win. I don't think he was plodding at all. He ran completely different than I thought he would.............

just doing this off the top of my head.

[JustRalph]

I say we leave Rags to Riches alone with Curlin for about an hour prior to the race.............??? Might as well get down to it................ :lol:

[Bruddah]

Kudos to Pletcher for taking a shot. Here's hoping that Gomez sets a blistering pace with Hard Spun to pave the way for what should have been his mount--Rags to Riches.

Which entrant, other than Hardspun, is capable of setting a blistering pace? Hardspun won't be pressed by, or set a fast pace. The pace on the front end figures to be no more than slow to moderate. Now you can start handicapping the race. :)

[GaryG]

I say we leave Rags to Riches alone with Curlin for about an hour prior to the race.............??? Might as well get down to it................ :lol:She might whip his ass...

[Hajck Hillstrom]

She might whip his ass... Maybe, but probably not, as it is more likely she might tease him to the point of no return.

This race just went from a modicum of interest to a heightened level greater than the Derby! (for me personally)

I wanted to see her in the Derby, but this stage may be an even better one.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[SmartyParty]

Run safe and fast, Rags to Riches!

[Edward DeVere]

Only a literal handful of fillies have ever been entered in this race.

Then they must be the world's teeny-tiniest equines.

[plainolebill]

Then they must be the world's teeny-tiniest equines.

Chicken wire paddock.

[KingChas]

Finally, we get the acid test to my statement in March that "RAGS TO RICHES is the finest 3 year old in all the land!"

Carry on, Carry on,
Hajck Hillstrom

Acid test indeed, she is either the best 3 year old in the land or we have a trainer desperate to win a triple crown race, now "grasping for straws".

We shall see. ;)

[pressman]

Wheather it be humans or horses,woman just dont know their place!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Whether it be humans or horses,woman just dont know their place!...but that doesn't seem to stop them from usually dominating the places they are in!

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[JustRalph]

...but that doesn't seem to stop them from usually dominating the places they are in!

Carry on, Carry on, Hajck

You've met my wife huh?

[Hajck Hillstrom]

You've met my wife huh?...and her sister, her mother, all of her nieces, and the distaff cousins as well.....

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[singunner]

Is this some sort of monster horse or something? My program outputs:

Rags to Riches --> 26.413463466040085
Curlin --> 21.214931442061925
Hard Spun --> 16.568982220057546
Tiago --> 15.846836625194682
Imawildandcrazyguy --> 15.465283739166424
C P West --> 10.62046202608105
Slew's Tizzy --> 6.456110643306792

Given that Curlin is so far ahead of the rest in the prediction, it's really strange that RtR is put so far ahead of Curlin. How many races has this horse run in the past? Maybe my program's just picking up some anomalous results?

[JustRalph]

Maybe my program's just picking up some anomalous results?

Mine shows her winning over Curlin if he runs the same as the Derby. But you toss on the Preakness paceline and she loses to him by a couple...........

surprised me too..........

[singunner]

Mine factors the Derby and the Preakness equally. I'm just glad I'm not alone. I love an interesting race.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Is this some sort of monster horse or something? How many races has this horse run in the past? Maybe my program's just picking up some anomalous results? She has raced 5 times. Her last 3 races were impressive Grade 1 wins, and her win in the Las Virgenes was one of the most impressive efforts I have ever seen on a racetrack. I am not alone in this assessment, as Jon White says it was the most impressive Grade1 win he ever witnessed.

I saw her Kentucky Oaks victory from the paddock to the winner's circle on an off track from off the pace.

This filly is the real deal, and her detractors might want to reconsider their position.

She is truly something special.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[GaryG]

Mine shows her winning over Curlin if he runs the same as the Derby. But you toss on the Preakness paceline and she loses to him by a couple...........

surprised me too..........Mine are similar, however she is fresh and was not all out in the Oaks. The final furlong in :12 on a muddy track under a hand ride. I am betting her.

[46zilzal]

Is this some sort of monster horse or something? My program outputs:

Rags to Riches --> 26.413463466040085
Curlin --> 21.214931442061925
Hard Spun --> 16.568982220057546
Tiago --> 15.846836625194682
Imawildandcrazyguy --> 15.465283739166424
C P West --> 10.62046202608105
Slew's Tizzy --> 6.456110643306792


Aren't all of those extra decimal points a bit superfulous?

[Greyfox]

Max Watman very high on Rags to Riches in article at
http://www.nysun.com/article/56025

He says:

"What's most interesting about her presence here is how thoroughly professional she is. The 3-year-old colts have been wonderful, but you can't exactly call them predictable. They don't seem, as a group, to run as if they understand what's expected of them. Obviously, the defected Street Sense was a less than predictable runner in these races. Curlin figured out that he was in the Preakness after three quarters of the race had gone by. Hard Spun (or perhaps Mario Pino) allowed himself to be pressured into starting his run too early in Baltimore. This sort of thing doesn't happen to Rags to Riches.
She goes into the gate. She runs her race. She wins.

Her race, moreover, is perfect. She rates off the pace, just like her father did, and makes her move on the stretch. She has yet to be asked — each of her victories were won with Garret Gomez hand urging her across the wire. And that hand urging her moved her in front of the Kentucky Oaks, having completed the 1 1/8 mile in 1:49 4/5. The last time Curlin ran 1 1/8, he was blowing them out of the water in the Arkansas Derby, back on April 14. His time for that race was 1:50.

She's fresh, she's carrying five pounds less than the boys, and she's a force to be reckoned with."

[46zilzal]

And that hand urging her moved her in front of the Kentucky Oaks, having completed the 1 1/8 mile in 1:49 4/5. The last time Curlin ran 1 1/8, he was blowing them out of the water in the Arkansas Derby, back on April 14. His time for that race was 1:50.[/i]

She's fresh, she's carrying five pounds less than the boys, and she's a force to be reckoned with."
The Arkansas Derby was essentially over after 6 furlongs.....Come on these two are the best but that is a poor comparison.

[singunner]

Aren't all of those extra decimal points a bit superfulous?
Maybe if you don't care about precision...

[LemonSoupKid]

The hand urging stuff is bullshiznit. From one race to the next, it's meaningless, because when faced with other horses, you can't tell what's in the tank on that day, how they are reacting to the surface, or how gritty they are at winning.

The lesser weight is something to think about. However, she is still a filly running at 1.5 miles and although the same can be said about her, Curlin is just in his 6th start, finding out who he really is, which is potentially more than a 111 Beyer horse in any given race.

This should be very interesting. The well rested have done well over the last few years. "All out" and "hand urging" mean JACK. If she's 5/2, you're a nut to bet her with Curlin in the race.

LemonSoupKid

[46zilzal]

The filly has the best closing fractions in this race, BUT from too far back. A piece of it at best..

[DanG]

She is no worse than 3rd in this race first time going through it. She is flat out better than all but the top two, and given her best case scenario (including a new top and slight regression of Curiln in particular) she can give them a fight in the last 1/8th IMHO.

This makes it a fascinating race that brings into play breeding / past ground loss / professionalism and projecting her stride from 8f tracks into more forgiving turns etc….

She is flat out a professional racehorse. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I’ll take her head to head against any of the other four at even odds.

[point given]

She is no worse than 3rd in this race first time going through it. She is flat out better than all but the top two, and given her best case scenario (including a new top and slight regression of Curiln in particular) she can give them a fight in the last 1/8th IMHO.

This makes it a fascinating race that brings into play breeding / past ground loss / professionalism and projecting her stride from 8f tracks into more forgiving turns etc….

She is flat out a professional racehorse. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I’ll take her head to head against any of the other four at even odds.

She has been training steadily at Belmont as well and has had time off, which can't hurt.

[KingChas]

Max Watman very high on Rags to Riches in article

Her race, moreover, is perfect. She rates off the pace, just like her father did, and makes her move on the stretch. She has yet to be asked — each of her victories were won with Garret Gomez hand urging her across the wire. 1:50.

[/i]

Must be a great group of 3 year old fillies she's been facing?
I have the Oaks PP's but can't reprint them here.Check out these fabulous fillies they are hard pressed to hit a 90 BSF.

Rags is an exceptional filly, do not take me wrong. But being the "wisegirl horse" in the Belmont.The risks outweigh the rewards. :eek:

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.

I do agree with 46zilzal that she has the BEST closing numbers in the race, and she will most likely land somewhere in the TRI and SUPER, but a horse with only best closing numbers going for them usually does not win the Belmont.

CURLIN, on the other hand, seems like a perfect fit for this race. I know most don't want to hear this, but he's pretty much a lock unless there is something wrong with him that has not been disclosed.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.ZERO?????

There is nothing I love more than this type of confidence! It is so impressive in so many ways. I am always amazed by the level of conviction.

ZERO??????

My perspective may be skewed, but I think she has a viable shot, in fact, I think 3-1 is an overlay.

ZERO??????

I once saw a race at Pomona where 4 of the 6 entrants went down, and the 2 longest shots in the race completed the exacta.

ZERO??????

No chance of any chaos?

May all of your tickets cash large sans the filly, but I just don't see that happening.

I've been wrong before, but I will be loaded up on her in both the Win and Place holes in various exotics.

Carry on, Carry on,

[Seabiscuit@AR]

I think Rags to Riches is some value and have already backed it

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.I do believe her chances would have been slightly enhanced with Gomez in the irons, and am somewhat concerned how Velasquez's aggressive manner will effect her, but ZERO shot?

How I do....

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[GaryG]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.So.....does this mean you will streak Central Park if she wins?

[ryesteve]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.
Wow... does this mean you'd book a bet for me at odds of INFINITY?? So if I bet a penny, exactly how much do I get back?? :D

[chickenhead]

she has yet to get much pace to run at...looks to me like she's got a good shot at being competitive. Her %E has gone down 4 races in a row (as the distance has increased), while her pace, final fig and PF have gone up in all 4. I've never seen a pattern like that before. She definitely has not run her best race yet.

[Bruddah]

but those betting Rags2 to win, please throw your money into my car, as I pass by.

Using the famous words of Elvis Presley

THANK YOU...THANK YOU VARY MUCH! :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, now you guys have me second guessing myself. RTR DOES have a big edge on my numbers when it comes to final fraction....looking at her again, it's a big enough edge to make me think that if Curlin somehow falters, RTR just might have a big enough edge in that final fraction to somehow get up if everyone else (Hard Spun, CP West, Tiago and of course Curlin) throws in the towel.

Like I said before, I will definitely be using her underneath, but I still think she has very little chance of winning. I'm thinking a My Flag type of performance.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

but those betting Rags2 to win, please throw your money into my car, as I pass by.....as much as I would like to accomodate this request, I will throw my money at a broker, via the Belmont pools, to disseminate any cash into your car, or my armored truck.:cool:

This thread has the appearance of one that I may enjoy revisiting on Saturday evening.

May the race be safe.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[46zilzal]

Very very few Belmonts are won by long sweeping late moves. One has to be close as the fatgue factor is great in this one. The best closers here are, on final fraction alone, are Curlin, Rags to Riches and Tiago, but the latter two are closing from a substantial point behind at the projected 2nd call of this race, while Curlin projects to be much closer to the pace.

Traditionally, that favors the Preakness champion.

[ryesteve]

Very very few Belmonts are won by long sweeping late moves.
Yeah, that's why I tossed Jazil last year :bang:

[PaceAdvantage]

PS. If it's wet on Saturday, my "RTR CAN'T WIN" bet is off the table.

[ghostyapper]

Yeah, that's why I tossed Jazil last year :bang:

And afleet alex and birdstone the previous years.

[PaceAdvantage]

And afleet alex and birdstone the previous years.

Yeah, late closers are the way to go.....:rolleyes:

[46zilzal]

Yeah, that's why I tossed Jazil last year
That one (Jazil) had a percent median right in range at 67.3 where most Belmont winners reside. Now Afleet Alex was later (but not a lot being around 67%), but he had such a lone late advantage over his group that he was easily able to overcome it.

Birdstone was in that range to but a bit higher at 67.7% median but had run sucessfully from further back. This one was a plodder type: won when the rest quit, by default.

[NYPlayer]

There's no questioning that RTR is good, but I think all of the top horses are vulnerable. Though, if I had to pick one that seemed the strongest it would be Hard Spun, but he's surrounded by talent in RTR and Curlin, as well as outsiders that look to move forward.

Curlin is obviously the fastest, but his huge race last time likely took something out of him, and on three weeks rest the horse is vulnerable to a temporary regression, although he could still win with a number less than his Preakness effort. Okay, maybe he is Superhorse, but he's gonna have to prove it to me.

Meanwhile, Imawildandcrazyguy (IMCG), has been running steadily, if not spectacularly (at least by the Sheets' reckoning), and it just looks as though he's going to run a number that puts him squarely in contention.

My Belmont play is going to be a broad triple keying IMCG and I've worked out some combinations -

$1 - IMCG/HS, RTR, CU/HS, RTR, CU, TGO, SLT, CPW - $15
$2 - IMCG/HS, RTR, CU/HS, RTR, CU, TGO - $18
$1 - IMCG/HS, RTR/HS, RTR, TGO - $4
__________________________________________________
$1 - HS, RTR, CU/IMCG/HS, RTR, CU, TGO, SLT, CPW - $15
$1 - CU/IMCG/HS, RTR, TGO, SLT, CPW - $5
$2 - CU/IMCG/HS,RTR,TGO - $6
__________________________________________________
$3 - HS, RTR/HS, RTR, CU/IMCG - $12
$1 - HS, RTR/HS, RTR, CU, TGO/IMCG - $6
__________________________________________________
Total $81

Obviously, I'm taking a stand against the favorite, and even with all of these combinations, there are still plenty of ways to lose. I usually don't play triples, but since it is the Belmont I think I'll splurge a little. Most of the combinations should pay generously enough, and I'll probably throw another 50 or so on IMCG to win, just in case something really screwy happens with the triples. So I'm betting with both hands and praying for an upset. I'm just wild and crazy I guess.:)

[Hosshead]

Anybody know if they are allowed to run on Bute in the Belmont ?

[point given]

Anybody know if they are allowed to run on Bute in the Belmont ?

Only Assmussens horse :rolleyes:

[ryesteve]

That one (Jazil) had a percent median right in range at 67.3 where most Belmont winners reside.
I'm curious how these numbers are computed that end up giving a horse that does all his running from last place (Jazil) the same profile as pace setters and close stalkers (most Belmont winners).

[46zilzal]

I'm curious how these numbers are computed that end up giving a horse that does all his running from last place (Jazil) the same profile as pace setters and close stalkers (most Belmont winners).
simple, it has NOTHING to do with position only energy distribtuion.

Hard Spun's is not like these others......

[ljb]

Nice call on RTR fellows.

[Overlay]

Great race! She used every ounce of that five-pound allowance.

[yak merchant]

Awesome run by RTR. ABC/ESPN is a farking joke.

[Greyfox]

I'll go on record and say she has ZERO shot to WIN the Belmont Stakes.

.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[GaryG]

:lol: :lol: :lol:Track wasn't wet, so no way out of this one......:eek: :rolleyes:

[chickenhead]

Track wasn't wet, so no way out of this one......:eek: :rolleyes:

I think I saw somebody spill a beer in the two path at the 1/16th pole, may have made the difference. :lol:

[singunner]

I feel like gloating. If you count every position off between predicted and actual as counting for 1 point, I score a 4 on this race. I scored an 8 for the Preakness.

Rags to Riches --> 26.413463466040085
Curlin --> 21.214931442061925
Hard Spun --> 16.568982220057546
Tiago --> 15.846836625194682
Imawildandcrazyguy --> 15.465283739166424
C P West --> 10.62046202608105
Slew's Tizzy --> 6.456110643306792

I asked my mom to put 10 on RtR to win on her way to work this morning. If she did, my lifetime ROI is through the roof.

[GaryG]

Don't gloat and never say I told you so. It is not becoming. Just win with the same face that you lose with.

[singunner]

...This isn't poker. I've been to the simulcast. I see the faces people make when they lose. They're very different faces from the winning ones. The good thing is, the horses don't read your tells.

I guess "celebrating" would have sounded better than "gloating". But, given that this is a sport where the amount you win is determined by how much everyone else loses, celebrating and gloating are pretty hard to differentiate.

[DanG]

Don't gloat and never say I told you so. It is not becoming. Just win with the same face that you lose with.
Well said Gary…

I told you so and / or gloating in this game just doesn’t work on any level.

Great filly AND colt in this one. IMHO, I don’t want to hear about the 5lbs making the difference. Her trip was anything but ideal. She earned this in everyway.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

What a great thread..............!!!!!!

[STABLEMATE]

No, some people just NEVER learn not to say "never" - or "no way". :)

[keilan]

u know I much prefer to see a player stand up and have a definite opinion as opposed to the mouths who never say anything until after the running’s done imnho.

[Greyfox]

u know I much prefer to see a player stand up and have a definite opinion as opposed to the mouths who never say anything until after the running’s done imnho.

When "I was a lad" we called that suckholing to the teacher.
Let P.A. eat crow. :lol: :lol: :lol:

[singunner]

My "definite opinion":

http://www.tsunagarisoft.com/RtR.jpg

[Hajck Hillstrom]

but those betting Rags2 to win, please throw your money into my car, as I pass by. Using the famous words of Elvis Presley

THANK YOU...THANK YOU VARY MUCH! :)I find the egg on your face a little distracting.... could you wipe it off before we continue? :D :cool: Did you need to borrow a towel?

Carry on, Carry on,

:lol: :lol:

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Nice call on RTR fellows.Much appreciated!

Carry on, Carry on,

:cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

I was dead wrong. I still don't know how she did it. Well, I kind of know how she did it...she stuck fairly close to a crawling pace, and her AFOREMENTIONED (by me no less) DOMINANT LATE FRACTION kicked in and held off Curlin to the wire.

I was stupid for saying she had no shot. Any horse with THAT DOMINANT a third fraction has to be respected in a race like this.

My numbers showed how dominant she was late, and for some reason I chose to ignore that number. All were witness to how dominant that late fraction was as she held off one of the best 3yo males in the game today to win the Belmont.

Shame on me. Good call to all those who believed.

[JustRalph]

Is it just me or would anybody else like to see her on the Turf?

[DanG]

Is it just me or would anybody else like to see her on the Turf?
Would be very interesting Ralph.

The guy I really curious about is Street Sense. He has the sudden acceleration and quick action that excels on the weeds.

[ryesteve]

simple, it has NOTHING to do with position only energy distribtuion
But to some extent, if not a large extent, position is a function of energy distribution

[keilan]

But to some extent, if not a large extent, position is a function of energy distribution


nope

[GaryG]

Is it just me or would anybody else like to see her on the Turf?Also, does she try the Travers or go back to the girls?

[Bruddah]

to all the R2R supporters. All I can say, and it's said with egg on my face, is boy were you all correct. She is one heck of a horse. She looked Curlin in the eye and wouldn't let him by. She may have had a 5lb weight break, but in my opinion, she was definitely more determined. In my humble opinion, it seemed to me, Curlin looked at her, as if saying, damn girl you are supposed to let me by.

To all her supporters, congratulations, your faith was well justified. You can all count me as a fellow Raggie. :) :D

[GaryG]

to all the R2R supporters. All I can say, and it's said with egg on my face, is boy were you all correct. She is one heck of a horse. She looked Curlin in the eye and wouldn't let him by. She may have had a 5lb weight break, but in my opinion, she was definitely more determined. In my humble opinion, it seemed to me, Curlin looked at her, as if saying, damn girl you are supposed to let me by.

To all her supporters, congratulations, your faith was well justified. You can all count me as a fellow Raggie. :) :DHey, appreciate your strong opinions. That is what we need more of. :ThmbUp:

[KingChas]

Congrats to all who foresaw this fillies greatness. :jump:
As a pure spectator I enjoyed the race.Was a little suprised RTR went off at 4/1,thought she'd be bet down.
Enjoyed the thread, different insights, without abusing each others opinions. :ThmbUp: .

[46zilzal]

But to some extent, if not a large extent, position is a function of energy distribution
There are a few, about 10% in my experience, that are purely positional and don't fit the energy descriptions.

Energy distribution does not predict WHERE, positionally, a horse might be at any given call in any given race.

[point given]

What a race ! What a filly ! One of the most exciting races i've ever seen. Almost went "horse" from screaming my lungs out.

This thread was terrific, with PA and Bruddah accepting the egging well ! Good on ya' boyz ! But it was the Girlz !

One thing to keep in mind for the future though, is that to me, the strip was not kind to speed and the inside was not the place to be on the day. I donot know how R2R or Curlin will handle the tighter turns at Saratoga . I think Street Sense will have a decided advantage there. Also, if I were Pletcher , I'd run vs the girlz next out at Belmont and then maybe try the boyz again. Gotta place her right and Pletcher did so admirably in the Belmont. Just feel sorry for Garrett Gomez the regular rider of R2R, guess it was just meant to be for Johnny and Todd. :ThmbUp:

[NYPlayer]

My Belmont play is going to be a broad triple keying IMCG and I've worked out some combinations -

$1 - IMCG/HS, RTR, CU/HS, RTR, CU, TGO, SLT, CPW - $15
$2 - IMCG/HS, RTR, CU/HS, RTR, CU, TGO - $18
$1 - IMCG/HS, RTR/HS, RTR, TGO - $4
__________________________________________________
$1 - HS, RTR, CU/IMCG/HS, RTR, CU, TGO, SLT, CPW - $15
$1 - CU/IMCG/HS, RTR, TGO, SLT, CPW - $5
$2 - CU/IMCG/HS,RTR,TGO - $6
__________________________________________________
$3 - HS, RTR/HS, RTR, CU/IMCG - $12
$1 - HS, RTR/HS, RTR, CU, TGO/IMCG - $6
__________________________________________________
Total $81

So I'm betting with both hands and praying for an upset. I'm just wild and crazy I guess.:)

Ok, so I was crazy to think IMCG could win, but I was pretty disappointed that he didn't show. He wasn't near the price I was looking for, and so I had to pare down the number of triple combinations. Tiago made the move to finish 3rd, while Curlin came in for a good second. Congratulations to all those who cashed. RTR is one nice filly.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

to all the R2R supporters. All I can say, and it's said with egg on my face, is boy were you all correct. She is one heck of a horse. She looked Curlin in the eye and wouldn't let him by. She may have had a 5lb weight break, but in my opinion, she was definitely more determined. In my humble opinion, it seemed to me, Curlin looked at her, as if saying, damn girl you are supposed to let me by.

To all her supporters, congratulations, your faith was well justified. You can all count me as a fellow Raggie. :) :DI will echo Gary's sentiments....your strong opinions are always welcomed. It is one part of the game that makes it great.

The "Raggie" nation was once a small one, but I feel the throng growing with each and every posting. You, sir, are gracious in defeat, and that speaks volumes of your character. We are so often vindicated at the windows, but this topic was one that ascended past the ranks of merely wagering.

Now it is my job to start a new ground swell....HOY, HOY, HOY!

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Hey, appreciate your strong opinions. That is what we need more of. :ThmbUp:You are correct sir, in many ways more than just this one! Nice support of filly that will go down in history as one of the all-time greats.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[Greyfox]

Close. Whew.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/06/10/sports/10blemont_goal2.jpg

.

[singunner]

Looks like a solid win to me. When Curlin's on the down-stride and RtR is on the up-stride but is still winning, it's solid. Not saying it wasn't close, just solid.

[PaceAdvantage]

When "I was a lad" we called that suckholing to the teacher.
Let P.A. eat crow. :lol: :lol: :lol:

You know, it's funny. I pick CORINTHIAN to win the Met Mile (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=388203&postcount=7), he pays a very nice price when he WINS, and you are nowhere to be found giving me a thumbs up or pat on the back.

[KingChas]

PaceAdvantage; You know, it's funny. I pick CORINTHIAN to win the Met Mile.

I saw that post.Was quite impressed. :ThmbUp:

Your comments on RTR's zero chance, though on the extreme side ,was not that far fetched.Everything ever written about handicapping had this fillies chance of winning as being one big sucker bet.First time vs boys,1&1/2 classic etc,etc....My figs did have her right up there with these.But as I posted previously I felt she'd never run to them with this kind of company(males).I didn't bet.But I had it wrong!

Go Fig, Go Fig!
KC

[Greyfox]

PaceAdvantage; You know, it's funny. I pick CORINTHIAN to win the Met Mile.

I saw that post.Was quite impressed. :ThmbUp:

Your comments on RTR's zero chance, though on the extreme side ,was not that far fetched.Everything ever written about handicapping had this fillies chance of winning as being one big sucker bet.First time vs boys,1&1/2 classic etc,etc....My figs did have her right up there with these.But as I posted previously I felt she'd never run to them with this kind of company(males).I didn't bet.But I had it wrong!

Go Fig, Go Fig!
KC

Congrats on Corinthian PA. :ThmbUp: I seldom play that track on Sundays. Thought a Corinthian was someone who received an epistle from an apostle.:lol:

KingChas - Why bother making figs if you're not going to believe them?

[KingChas]

KingChas - Why bother making figs if you're not going to believe them?

Like just about everyone else had her figs below Curlin and Hard Spun and a tad above Tiago.That's why I didn't bet.As I previously posted the risk was higher than the reward.But I didn't expect RTR to pay double figs either. ;)

[ryesteve]

There are a few, about 10% in my experience, that are purely positional and don't fit the energy descriptions.
That's not what I said. I said position is somewhat a function of energy distribution. In other words, those that distribute it early will tend to be near the front, and those who distribute it late will tend to be near the back. Which is why I said I don't understand how Jazil could have a close presser's energy distribution, when he'd be coming from dead last. If he calculates out to a presser, what does that make the horses 20 lengths in front of him?

[keilan]

Steve -- more accurate when speaking about cheaper horses only.

[ryesteve]

I don't see why that would make a difference. But rather than get tied up in theory, I'd be happy just to see whatever specific math was involved that shows Jazil having the same energy distribution as the close pressers who typically win Belmonts.

[46zilzal]

Energy distribution does NOT equal position. Never has. Every race is different so if there is a consistently firing energy, with a differing pace, the position will then vary accordingly.

[Tom]

But there are horses who will run whatever it takes to get the lead. they may die in the second fractions. but not befreo taking your selection out with them. And some horses take back no matter what their early pace velocity might say. I never look at at an S1 to actually take the lead. I Do look for and E6 to try. That is where I put positonal in place - the horse's comfort zone.
I tend to use Walter Coffey's running styles more than conventional - Front, middle, and rear. Front on or clsoe to the lead in two of the last three, rear, back half of the field two of the last three, and middle is everything else. It recognizes some horses want the lead, some want the back, and the rest we don't know where they will be.

[ryesteve]

Energy distribution does NOT equal position.
When did I use the word "equals"? I've been very specific in NOT using that word.

Like I just said in the last post, I'd really like to see how the math works out that shows Jazil looking like a close presser.

[46zilzal]

When did I use the word "equals"? I've been very specific in NOT using that word.


I was never quoting you, just making a statement. If I were quoting, I would have used YOUR lines.

[ryesteve]

I was never quoting you, just making a statement. If I were quoting, I would have used YOUR lines.
No, you weren't directly quoting me, but you were obviously speaking to me and making a statement that was an apparent attempt at refuting something I never said... unless of course you're just in the habit of making random non sequitur statements, which could very well be the case, since you certainly don't seem at all inclined to answer or even acknowledge specific direct questions.

[46zilzal]

POSITION is position and energy distribution is energy distribution.....exclusive definitions.

[ryesteve]

POSITION is position and energy distribution is energy distribution.....exclusive definitions.

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/thumb/1/15/CaptainobviousChooseOption.jpg/180px-CaptainobviousChooseOption.jpg

[Hajck Hillstrom]

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/thumb/1/15/CaptainobviousChooseOption.jpg/180px-CaptainobviousChooseOption.jpgThanks for the posting.... This will be a good one to pass along to Todd Schrupp, as he references this psuedo-superhero repeatedly, ad nauseum.

ToddonTV: I'm not disparaging him or his use of the term, but merely making an observation that he has a noted fondness for it.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck :D

[ryesteve]

Thanks for the posting....
Glad I could help!

Does Todd by any chance have a nickname for people who insist that a horse who runs his races by sitting in last place, 20 lengths out of it after 6 furlongs, is really a close presser, and yet can't explain how?

[46zilzal]

very consistent. Sustained or even late akin to turfers.

[46zilzal]

Afleet Alex same energy profile.

[46zilzal]

Look consistent? jazil had the same energy pattern that fits the distance and track.

[ryesteve]

I was interested in seeing the math, not a set of eye charts.

[PaceAdvantage]

I was interested in seeing the math, not a set of eye charts.

Eye charts...now THAT's funny! :lol:

[john del riccio]

I was dead wrong. I still don't know how she did it. Well, I kind of know how she did it...she stuck fairly close to a crawling pace, and her AFOREMENTIONED (by me no less) DOMINANT LATE FRACTION kicked in and held off Curlin to the wire.

I was stupid for saying she had no shot. Any horse with THAT DOMINANT a third fraction has to be respected in a race like this.

My numbers showed how dominant she was late, and for some reason I chose to ignore that number. All were witness to how dominant that late fraction was as she held off one of the best 3yo males in the game today to win the Belmont.

Shame on me. Good call to all those who believed.

When I read that you said she had no shot, I got a kick in the ass from the Racing gods reminding me of the times I made such a statement only to be chewing on my losing tickets after the race........Whenever I have the urge to say "no shot", I just bite my tongue and if I slip up and say it, I must go bet th ehorse that has no shot so I feel better.

John:bang:

[46zilzal]

I was interested in seeing the math, not a set of eye charts.
work out the percent median

velocity of fraction 1=A in ft/sec
velocity of fraction 2=B
velocity of fraction 3=C

A+B+C= total energy(T)

A/T = % energy expended in first fraction
B/T = % energy expended in 2nd fraction
C/T = % energy expended in 3rd fraction

sum of (A/T)+(B/T)= % Median which defines racing style

Can define who best fits the energy profile of the standards of surface and distance this way. If there is a steady rise in % median over three races, red light should come on to find out if three things are happening: 1) is horse running against progressively faster fractions ? If so that is a pass. 2) Has horse run vs similar fractions and median is going up? BAD as it tells you the horse is going off form. 3) Is horse running LONGER races the last three? Going up is bad as horse is telling you it cannot apportion speed over the increasingly longer distances.

All the above animals fit the energy profile of the Belmont = LATE in the range of 66.5 -66.9 % median

[DanG]

work out the percent median

velocity of fraction 1=A in ft/sec
velocity of fraction 2=B
velocity of fraction 3=C

A+B+C= total energy(T)

A/T = % energy expended in first fraction
B/T = % energy expended in 2nd fraction
C/T = % energy expended in 3rd fraction

sum of (A/T)+(B/T)= % Median which defines racing style

Can define who best fits the energy profile of the standards of surface and distance this way. If there is a steady rise in % median over three races, red light should come on to find out if three things are happening: 1) is horse running against progressively faster fractions ? If so that is a pass. 2) Has horse run vs similar fractions and median is going up? BAD as it tells you the horse is going off form. 3) Is horse running LONGER races the last three? Going up is bad as horse is telling you it cannot apportion speed over the increasingly longer distances.

All the above animals fit the energy profile of the Belmont = LATE in the range of 66.5 -66.9 % median

1st...Thanks for sharing 46...Much better than an "eye chart" (That was a great line BTW ryesteve!!!)

You’re putting an incredible amount of faith into the inexact science of track / dist / surf / circumference equalization IMHO. New surfaces in particular have made the energy calculations quite challenging if you take them literally.

Ken Massa has been making velocity numbers before I was even aware of them and he does not endorse energy in the form you’re suggesting.

Throw this years Blue Grass (for example) into those narrow parameters and that smell is your money going up in smoke 46.

Having said that…Most pace players (myself included) use velocity figures to project exhaustion / early advantages, but I haven’t found the formula you have offered reliable taken at face value. Doesn’t mean it’s not valid, as you are obviously a sharp (although sometimes bewildering) :) human and you seem to do well with it.

All the best...

[46zilzal]

Throw this years Blue Grass (for example) into those narrow parameters and that smell is your money going up in smoke 46.



I believe that race to be an aberation as Nafzger said "That was the stupidest grade one race ever."

ALSO no one uses a single line unless he is aksing for sample error. As I said before I look for the performer, not the performance.

Those parameters are only PART of a larger picture. NO ONE in their right mind bases everything on a single factor but energy profile is just a qualifier. THEN the separation takes place.

I am not going to be upset with anyone (i.e. Davidowtiz called it psuedo science in his later edition of Betting Thoroughbreds) would does not appreciate/understand/apply energy to races. All the better for me as I love being the heteroclite.

[DanG]

I believe that race to be an aberration as Nafzger said "That was the stupidest grade one race ever."

ALSO no one uses a single line unless he is aksing for sample error. As I said before I look for the performer, not the performance.

Those parameters are only PART of a larger picture. NO ONE in their right mind bases everything on a single factor but energy profile is just a qualifier. THEN the separation takes place.

Your one of a kind 46,

Thank you for your use of capital letters or I may not have grasped what the HELL you were saying. You must replace the 'SHIFT key on your keyboard monthly. ;)

[46zilzal]

Your one of a kind 46,

Thank you for your use of capital letters or I may not have grasped what the HELL you were saying. You must replace the 'SHIFT key on your keyboard monthly.
Yep it is real shiney as compared to all but the spacebar!

[Cratos]

work out the percent median

velocity of fraction 1=A in ft/sec
velocity of fraction 2=B
velocity of fraction 3=C

A+B+C= total energy(T)

A/T = % energy expended in first fraction
B/T = % energy expended in 2nd fraction
C/T = % energy expended in 3rd fraction

sum of (A/T)+(B/T)= % Median which defines racing style

Can define who best fits the energy profile of the standards of surface and distance this way. If there is a steady rise in % median over three races, red light should come on to find out if three things are happening: 1) is horse running against progressively faster fractions ? If so that is a pass. 2) Has horse run vs similar fractions and median is going up? BAD as it tells you the horse is going off form. 3) Is horse running LONGER races the last three? Going up is bad as horse is telling you it cannot apportion speed over the increasingly longer distances.

All the above animals fit the energy profile of the Belmont = LATE in the range of 66.5 -66.9 % median

I am just curious and I want to know if this equation, ke=M * v2 / 450,240 has anything to do with your energy calculations.

[46zilzal]

I am just curious and I want to know if this equation, ke=M * v2 / 450,240 has anything to do with your energy calculations.
never saw that one before.

[46zilzal]

You’re putting an incredible amount of faith into the inexact science of track / dist / surf / circumference equalization IMHO. New surfaces in particular have made the energy calculations quite challenging if you take them literally.


The easy answer to that one is that I only play one track with an artificial surface (Woodbine) and it has not changed (energy - wise) even though the maufacturer continues to come back again and again trying to fulfill his sales pitch of turf to dirt interchangeablity......Baloney! it's just not there.

[Cratos]

never saw that one before.

That is the equation for kinetic energy calculation and if the following assumptions were made about RTR and Curlin in the recent Belmont you have this:

Assumed RTR weighed 1000 lbs and toted 121 lbs.

Assumed Curlin weighed 1100 lbs and toted 126 lbs.

From the DRF charts RTR ran her last ½-mile of the Belmont in 48.24 seconds

From the DRF charts Curlin ran his last ½-mile of the Belmont in 48.34 seconds

If my calculations are correct,

RTR expended in the last ½-mile about 51,980 Joules in energy or 51980 Watts in power which is about 69.71 horsepower.

Curlin expended in the last ½-mile about 57,090 Joules in energy or 57,090 Watts in power which is about 76.56 horsepower.

The reason for the difference is that I am assuming that Curlin is the larger horse and is toting 5 lbs more weight

[46zilzal]

That is certainly a different way to look at it.

[Tom]

But how does it help you?
And how often do you know the horse's weight?
And the horse that expended the most horse power got beat.
At Finger Lakes, wehre many horses might be pulling a milk wagon soon, that would be helpful information! :lol:

[Cratos]

But how does it help you?
And how often do you know the horse's weight?
And the horse that expended the most horse power got beat.
At Finger Lakes, wehre many horses might be pulling a milk wagon soon, that would be helpful information! :lol:

Tom,

Your question is a good one. How often do you (the bettor) know a horse’s weight and the answer is never not unless you are connected to the barn or have some reliable inside information. The point I was making is that to talk about energy expended by a horse without knowing its weight is far too subjective to be reliable.

[DanG]

The easy answer to that one is that I only play one track with an artificial surface (Woodbine) and it has not changed (energy - wise) even though the maufacturer continues to come back again and again trying to fulfill his sales pitch of turf to dirt interchangeablity......Baloney! it's just not there.
46,

This was the point I was attempting to make. At a meet with minimal shippers (I.e. Woodbine) the energy calc can be deadly. This thread was discussing a classic race when horses are arriving from a variety of circumstances.

[46zilzal]

Simple. track to track works well and I forget the Turfway Keeneland lines. Most horses repeat their energy patterns. One looks for comparable ones.

[DanG]

Simple. track to track works well
Not always true in the formula and application you described IMO…

But, it’s what you believe that counts.

OK…next topic, thanks. My X says “Leo’s” must get in the last word, so that’s my alibi. :)

[46zilzal]

Track to track was not in that formula, it is in the data.

[Greyfox]

Assumed RTR weighed 1000 lbs and toted 121 lbs.

Assumed Curlin weighed 1100 lbs and toted 126 lbs.

From the DRF charts RTR ran her last ½-mile of the Belmont in 48.24 seconds

From the DRF charts Curlin ran his last ½-mile of the Belmont in 48.34 seconds

If my calculations are correct,

RTR expended in the last ½-mile about 51,980 Joules in energy or 51980 Watts in power which is about 69.71 horsepower.

Curlin expended in the last ½-mile about 57,090 Joules in energy or 57,090 Watts in power which is about 76.56 horsepower.

The reason for the difference is that I am assuming that Curlin is the larger horse and is toting 5 lbs more weight

If your calculations are correct, and they may well be.
But limited knowledge of physics tells me something is wrong here.

1 horsepower = A unit of power in the U.S. Customary System, equal to 745.7 watts or 33,000 foot-pounds per minute.
or 1 h.p. = 550 foot pounds per second.
Some how you have Curlin expending 76.56 hp while RTR expends 69.71 h.p.

I don't quite see it that way.
Curlin, including its own weight carries 105 lbs. more than RTR.
(1100 +126) - (1000 +121) = 105 lbs. more.
Assuming a 1 foot lift of that 105 lbs for the entire 48.34 seconds
Curlin is doing 5,075.7 foot lbs more work than RTR over that period.
Doing 5,057.7 foot pounds of work over a 48.34 second period
comes out equal to .191 horsepower more work.

Either way, we'll agree Curlin had to do more work. I just don't get him doing as many horsepower more work than you do.

(Of course if memory serves me correctly that moving lbs. horizontally does not count in calculation of horse power. That's why I assumed that the horses were approximately 1 foot rising each second, which they weren't.)

[Cratos]

If your calculations are correct, and they may well be.
But limited knowledge of physics tells me something is wrong here.

1 horsepower = A unit of power in the U.S. Customary System, equal to 745.7 watts or 33,000 foot-pounds per minute.
or 1 h.p. = 550 foot pounds per second.
Some how you have Curlin expending 76.56 hp while RTR expends 69.71 h.p.

I don't quite see it that way.
Curlin, including its own weight carries 105 lbs. more than RTR.
(1100 +126) - (1000 +121) = 105 lbs. more.
Assuming a 1 foot lift of that 105 lbs for the entire 48.34 seconds
Curlin is doing 5,075.7 foot lbs more work than RTR over that period.
Doing 5,057.7 foot pounds of work over a 48.34 second period
comes out equal to .191 horsepower more work.

Either way, we'll agree Curlin had to do more work. I just don't get him doing as many horsepower more work than you do.

(Of course if memory serves me correctly that moving lbs. horizontally does not count in calculation of horse power. That's why I assumed that the horses were approximately 1 foot rising each second, which they weren't.)
I really don’t want to take this into a physics discussion because I prefer to talk horseracing. However my response was to an earlier discussion about expended energy. Therefore I made some assumptions about the two horses (RTR and Curlin), collected some data and input the findings and assumptions into an engineering model and got the energy and power numbers.

However in all due respect your numbers are very simplistic in the calculation of kinetic energy. For example a typical locomotive will have about 4400 HP whereas an automobile might have 300 HP, but with the weight differences along with many other things the car will be much faster over the same distance. In other words, HP is only one dimension of performance support.

[Greyfox]

We both agree. I know my calculations are simplistic.
We both agree. Curlin had to expend more energy over the same distance,
primarily due to weight (but part of that weight was muscle mass not available to the filly.) Just a great race though.