Pedigree Stats

[GameTheory]

I've recently put several years of racing data into a big database, and I want to make my own pedigree stats. I don't have access to things like yearling sale prices which some people might use, just performance stats.

So, besides simple stats like % of progeny that win as FTS etc. (which are useful), does any body have any ideas on anything more sophisticated I might do with this data? Any pedigree handicappers here?

[Dan Montilion]

With the FTS stats perhaps some sub-catagories could be...

Two year old FTS.

Three year old FTS.

FTS MSW.

FTS Mdn Clmg.

To go beyond that, under what circumstances does the progeny break their maiden.

At what class level.

At what distance.

On what circuit.

Amount of races needed to break maiden.

What age.

Now this will not lend itself to stats but some sort of cross refrence may be possible. I guess this goes to my pencil behind the ear methods. Just clip and paste every maiden winner under the sires name. Like many do for trainers, I'm sure patterns will develop.

Other thoughts that lend themsleves to stats.

First time turf. (I know, not original)

First time route.

First time Mdn Clmg route.

First time Mdn Clmg.

I know nothing of database's so I may have suggested something that is not possible in a DB. Personally I'm a dinosaur and wager on the NoCal circuit only and keep some of the above thoughts with paper and pencil. In my case many of the patterns I find indeed could be ancedotal but I have found profitable situations. But like trainer handicapping there are short term cycles, long term cycles and some that work for a while and are never seen again. This would apply to patterns only. Stats would likely hold up much longer but even they change as a sire ages or gets lesser females.

Holiday Everyday,

Dan Montilion

[cj]

One stat I think is big when available is a sire's success rate for individual trainers. This can vary widely.

CJ

[ridersup]

First Crop Sires

Lauren Stitch puts out a list early in the year of potential first crop sires expected to do well. If you catch these horses early on and ride with them you can make a few bucks on the concept that these are not well known.

Early firster that I played last year was Smoke Glacken who had quite a few first time winners.

This years crop that produced were from Grand Slam, Elusive Quality and Indian Charlie.

Another area of pedigree that interests me is determining which runner has the potential to stretch out in distance. When 2 year old start stretching out from sprint to route distances a good handle on the sires ability to produce distance runners would be a positive.

[Amazin]

Hey Dan

I assume you're the same Dan Montillion who supplied handy jock agent reports for N.Cal(my circuit too). It's become increasingly difficult to find this valuable info in updated form.Do you still do this or know where to find this info.Some sites are so out of date that they list jocks that have long dissappeared from the area.Knowing for example that Baze and Lopez have the same agent is huge when you see them in the same race.I assume that's still current but as you would know relationships change allmost as much as hollywood movie stars change partners.

[rrbauer]

If you go to the Blood Horse site

http://www.bloodhorse.com/

and click on the "Breeding/Sire Lists" link there is a huge amount of info for sires in a variety of categories. You can even hone the lists down by states.

Also, BRIS uses a AWD (average winning distance) stat with its sire info that I have found useful. (Although it is skewed on the short side for newer sires, due to preponderence of 2YO racers running dashes and sprints; and, skewed on the long side for European sires, where distance/turf races predominate).

[Dan Montilion]

Amazin,

I only contribute to the notes. I sent you an e-mail with other info about the report.

Dan Montilion

[Tom]

How about a sire's performance at a specific track? Or certain tracks - sloppy/muddy, or turf course?
Might some hidden nuggets in there.

[LOU M.]

I have been following sires by time of year.When their progeny break their maiden or win their first grass race. You'll be suprised a lot of sires have a somewhat narrow window of when their progeny will perform well.Even older runners of hot sires do well at the same time.