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Pell Mell
06-01-2007, 02:18 PM
What do you accept as an excuse for a bad race last time out?

Aside from the jock falling off, a slipped saddle, or some such accident, there are only three excuses I accept: Running against faster, higher class horses or entirely wrong distance or surface. I don't accept those so called "bad trips" unless against much better horses. As far as wrong distance I still want to see the horse "involved" somewhere in the race. As far as wrong surface, I never play turf races and in the case of turf to dirt I like to see some dirt races at todays level and a turf horse has to be dropping at least 100% in class when going to dirt. Actually, if I think a turf to dirt horse has a chance, unless the odds are very long, I pass. I've seen way, way too many turf to dirt favorites finish up the track.

Greyfox
06-01-2007, 02:26 PM
Gate trouble. For some horses, if they don't get out of the gate clean and close to the leaders their race is over for today.

Tom
06-01-2007, 02:35 PM
>Wrong distance
>Wrong surface
>Too high a class
>First or last race around a layoff
>Trouble line, with a grain of salt
>Pace too fast or too slow last time
>Regular rider on another horse, back on today
>Speed, fade last race, 2 or 3 off a layoff
>Bid, hung, same situation
>Early horse in a contentious early race last time, not so today
>Closer in a paceless race last race or two or three, hot pace predicted today
>Outside post last race, which hurt it's early positon
>Any horse forced to run outside it's pace comfort zone that figures get into it today - such as an early presser last time against 3 early type, today, only one.

shanta
06-01-2007, 02:47 PM
What do you accept as an excuse for a bad race last time out?


Anything and everything.

Bad last race means nothing except the PRICE today will be better.
Richie

Tom
06-01-2007, 03:21 PM
Well, those will be easy to remember! ;)

kenwoodallpromos
06-01-2007, 04:13 PM
It was one of those 5% of races I just chalk up to "racing luck" and that covers all the excuses.

JohnGalt1
06-02-2007, 10:41 AM
Michael Pizzola in "Handicapping Magic" Has a useful list of reasons to exclude a horses last race.

GaryG
06-02-2007, 10:48 AM
Those that handicap by "pacelines" must be aware that even though you do not use the last start, or last two starts, to rate the horse that those races still will affect his form. For better or worse. I love sneaky improvement that occurs within a tough trip.