raceplays
05-28-2007, 06:48 AM
Importantly it can be noted that there is coupled entry taking in one of the major hopes being Silver Wagon and the prices as per our chart below have been set to represent more of a Betting market that can be framed around a tighter 100% approx exchange pricing scenario rather than the PP odds that exist above. This will give us a truer gauge to the overall value scenario of the major hopes.
The overall class level of this feature Group 1 event does look below par with only two of the engaged runners looking likely to produce a performance of Group 1 quality and one of those two only just qualifies as potentially producing a Group 1- performance here so it can be said confidently that this is a weakish form race for future reference.
Firstly it can be said that with 4 potential leaders engaged (Half Ours, Mr Umphrey, Accountforthegold and Latent Heat) that the overall pace will be true and the pressure is likely to be high aswell. This will create a scenario where the leaders are at a distinct disadvantage and those coming from off the pace will be suited by the pace scenario.
Two of these are capable of performing at Group 1 level, these two horses are Silver Wagon (g1) and Latent Heat (g1-). These are the major two who look set to fight out the prize here.
We will start with Latent Heat. This runner is capable of clocking a G1- performance here. Last He won 4 of his last 5 starts before last start running into Silver Wagon over 7f at Group 1 level at Aqueduct. That day he finished 4th beaten 2.7l by Silver Wagon. He was a Group 1 winner 4 back over 7f at Santa Anita but that day got a very good trip on pace that suited his racing style, he was slightly fluked and flattered. For that reason we have marked him up as a G1- performer here. He is drawn considerably wide with three other potential leaders inside him, he will either have to work hard to cross and take up a good position early or will get caught deep facing the breeze into the first turn, which ever scenario it does not read well for his chances.
This brings us to Silver Wagon. He is definitely the horse to beat here. He is in super hot form at present winning 3 of his last 4 starts including a 7f Group 1 score at Aqueduct last start. That day he got well back 9l off the pace early then came 3 deep into the stretch making up quick headway to put the issue beyond doubt early in the stretch run. He has a high class turn of foot which will be suited by the race/pace scenario likely to develop here. He will get back early as per his customary style and with a fast pressure packed pace likely he will get every chance to close with the best late race pars and get home over the top of the on pacers. He is yet to win in three tries at this trip but the way he has been closing out 7f events of recent times suggests he is capable of getting a strong 8f now. This is definitely the one to beat.
Lawyer Ron has been marked up by the press as 2nd favorite Prepost in single runner betting markets (horses not coupled). He is a G2+ performer, yes he is suited by the pace scenario and is drawn well but he may struggle deep stretch to close out the race as well as Silver Wagon. He is a laying prospect here.
So in a nutshell Silver Wagon does look the one to beat here. He maps well, he is in career best form, both Jockey and trainer are hot at present, he produced a bullet work on 24 May in prep for this. We have him marked up as a 3.20 chance and he is likely to trade around 3.50, that represents slightly better than true value. He is a backable commodity here and can be supported with a 2.5 unit win outlay.
1st. Silver Wagon
2nd. Latent Heat
3rd. Lawyer Ron
The overall class level of this feature Group 1 event does look below par with only two of the engaged runners looking likely to produce a performance of Group 1 quality and one of those two only just qualifies as potentially producing a Group 1- performance here so it can be said confidently that this is a weakish form race for future reference.
Firstly it can be said that with 4 potential leaders engaged (Half Ours, Mr Umphrey, Accountforthegold and Latent Heat) that the overall pace will be true and the pressure is likely to be high aswell. This will create a scenario where the leaders are at a distinct disadvantage and those coming from off the pace will be suited by the pace scenario.
Two of these are capable of performing at Group 1 level, these two horses are Silver Wagon (g1) and Latent Heat (g1-). These are the major two who look set to fight out the prize here.
We will start with Latent Heat. This runner is capable of clocking a G1- performance here. Last He won 4 of his last 5 starts before last start running into Silver Wagon over 7f at Group 1 level at Aqueduct. That day he finished 4th beaten 2.7l by Silver Wagon. He was a Group 1 winner 4 back over 7f at Santa Anita but that day got a very good trip on pace that suited his racing style, he was slightly fluked and flattered. For that reason we have marked him up as a G1- performer here. He is drawn considerably wide with three other potential leaders inside him, he will either have to work hard to cross and take up a good position early or will get caught deep facing the breeze into the first turn, which ever scenario it does not read well for his chances.
This brings us to Silver Wagon. He is definitely the horse to beat here. He is in super hot form at present winning 3 of his last 4 starts including a 7f Group 1 score at Aqueduct last start. That day he got well back 9l off the pace early then came 3 deep into the stretch making up quick headway to put the issue beyond doubt early in the stretch run. He has a high class turn of foot which will be suited by the race/pace scenario likely to develop here. He will get back early as per his customary style and with a fast pressure packed pace likely he will get every chance to close with the best late race pars and get home over the top of the on pacers. He is yet to win in three tries at this trip but the way he has been closing out 7f events of recent times suggests he is capable of getting a strong 8f now. This is definitely the one to beat.
Lawyer Ron has been marked up by the press as 2nd favorite Prepost in single runner betting markets (horses not coupled). He is a G2+ performer, yes he is suited by the pace scenario and is drawn well but he may struggle deep stretch to close out the race as well as Silver Wagon. He is a laying prospect here.
So in a nutshell Silver Wagon does look the one to beat here. He maps well, he is in career best form, both Jockey and trainer are hot at present, he produced a bullet work on 24 May in prep for this. We have him marked up as a 3.20 chance and he is likely to trade around 3.50, that represents slightly better than true value. He is a backable commodity here and can be supported with a 2.5 unit win outlay.
1st. Silver Wagon
2nd. Latent Heat
3rd. Lawyer Ron