Going for a homerun at Arlington (Race 2)

[Robert Fischer]

This race looks like a total crapshoot. Should be some longshots here.

The 6 is coming out of a good race and Douglas returns to ride. I am using trifectas in the first 3 layers to keep the price reasonable, and then hedging with the 10cent superfecta in the 4th layer.
Will be a profitable wager if the 6 finishes in the top 4 and the Trifecta pays at least 500 or the Superfecta pays at least 5000.


Cancel the wager if 2 or more horses scratch.

Trifectas:
6 w/ 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 w/ 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 = $72

1,3,4,7,8,9,11,12 w/6 w/1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 =$64

1,3,4,7,8,9,11,12 w/1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 w/6 = $64

10c/ Superfecta:
1,3,4,7,8,9,11,12
1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12
1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12
6
=44.80

Total = 244.80

[Robert Fischer]

going to add to the above ^

$ exacta box 6 w/1,8,10,12 =$8
exacta box 1,8,10,12 = $12

$20

[Robert Fischer]

11 - 8 - 6 = 1,082.20 /2

Total profit from all above
541.10 returned
- 264.80 wagered

= $276.30 profit



1,3,4,7,8,9,11,12 w/1,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,12 w/6 = $64



I have another one for the 5th race

[hbeck]

Nice hit. $1082 trifecta.

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks hbeck ^


Race 5 we have slightly better animals (17500 clm this time) going 6 furlongs. 10 horse field.
Not as much value here, but I don't need to go as deep.

The 10 Sampras has a middle move habit that puts him in winning position. Looks like an appropriate drop in class and "Soups" rides back. Hoping the horse is healthy and in a comfort zone on this surface.
I need the 10 to finish in the top 4 and the tri has to pay $250 or the super has to pay $2450.


Trifectas

10 w/ 1,3,5,6,7,9 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,
= $42

1,3,5,6,7 w/ 10 w/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9
$35

1,3,5,6,7, w/1,3,5,6,7,9, w/10
=$30

10c/ Super

1,3,5,6,7,
1,3,5,6,7,9,
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,
10 =15.00


TOTAL 86.40

[Robert Fischer]

CANCEL TICKET #3 IS SCRATCHED

NEW BET

$ EXACTAS

10 W/ 1567
567 W/ 10
TOTAL = $7





Trifectas

10 w/ 1,3,5,6,7,9 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,
= $42

1,3,5,6,7 w/ 10 w/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9
$35

1,3,5,6,7, w/1,3,5,6,7,9, w/10
=$30

10c/ Super

1,3,5,6,7,
1,3,5,6,7,9,
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,
10 =15.00


TOTAL 86.40

[Robert Fischer]

CANCEL TICKET #3 IS SCRATCHED

NEW BET

$ EXACTAS

10 W/ 1567
567 W/ 10
TOTAL = $7


10 - 6 exacta 48.60/2


If I stick to my guns I make a better profit, but the 3 was one of my potential overlays , and I wasn't going to play around with a deep super in the 9 horse field. I am never shy about cancelling a ticket when something changes. I took a quick look at the 1 who has a versatile Dirt/Grass/AWT pedigree and coming in from a closers track. 10-6-1-5 says the super or tri was well within range, but I made a percentage move. Homerun may not be the perfect title for this thread as I went "deep" in coverage only, and could have risked some big swing and misses with less coverage on straight $1 superfectas. Profit is the name of the game here.


24.30 returned
- $7.0 wagered
= 17.30 profit



Total profit from all above

= $293.60 profit




Im looking at the feature now... Hard to judge the value. Lewis Michael looks like a strong favorite on paper, but there is a lot that can happen, maybe I will throw up some numbers for the feature

[Robert Fischer]

RACE9
Feature - 7-Lewis Micheal looks strong here. I like the 11 Purim as well. Throng has a great running style for this surface and is proven. I think Throng really belongs in longer routes and shouldn't win this mile, unless the field is really poor. I am going to try and squeeze that opinion into some 10 centers here. The 10 High Expectations is my longshot hope.

I need Throng to finish 2nd,3rd or 4th and the super to pay $710


10 c/ supers

7 10 11 w/ 1 w/2 3 7 10 11 w/2 3 6 7 9 10 11
= $6


7 10 11 w/ 2 3 7 10 11 w/1 w/ 2 3 6 7 9 10 11
= $6

7 10 11 w/ 2 3 7 10 11 w/ 2 3 6 7 10 11 w/1
=$7.50

exacta box
2 3 10 11
= $12

$1 super
11 w/ 7 w/1 w/ 10,2= $2

"homerun"
$1 super 10,w/ 1 w/ 11 w/ 3,7 = $2

Total 35.50

[Robert Fischer]

80-1 shot wires the field in 1:33 ! :D

$293.60
- 35.50

= + 258.10 :jump:


if not a homerun today was at least a solid line drive. :cool: