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Pell Mell
05-25-2007, 03:20 PM
What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

Personally, I read conditions first, look at all last races with no consideration given to the entry, only interested in the class and speed of the race it is coming out of. That's my first two moves. If there is interest in this thread I will continue.

cj
05-25-2007, 03:23 PM
Surface, Age, Class, Distance, Sex.

Edward DeVere
05-25-2007, 08:17 PM
"Is this race on the turf?"

Good4Now
05-26-2007, 12:20 AM
particularly the excluded levels and the time span for weight allowances. Then the distance. The second tier tracks have enough variation in "sprint" distances to allow sharp trainers that know the horse is most effective at one distance to get them in shape at the wrong distance and help the price when at the correct distance once ready. Churchill is one of the few MAJOR tracks to also have this available, due to the length of the spring meet. For many four, five, and six year old Race Horses a Half Furlong may as well be the English Channel!
Before all the Louisianna Slot money they would write some races with HUGE time spans for the weight breaks. Non winners in six months allowed 2 pounds, NW's in nine months 4 pounds USED to show up about every month, but not so often seen the last couple of years. To bad.

Pell Mell
05-26-2007, 07:23 AM
G4N, good observation. I don't see how one can begin to cap a race without a thought given to the conditions. Just in the cheaper claiming races alone one may find 10 different classifications in the confines of one claiming price. Sometimes half the field can be eliminated by the fact of being entered under the wrong conditions.

And yet, I have observed people handicapping with nary a thought as to the conditions which are the basic tool a trainer has in properly placing their horse.

Cratos
05-26-2007, 09:33 AM
What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

Personally, I read conditions first, look at all last races with no consideration given to the entry, only interested in the class and speed of the race it is coming out of. That's my first two moves. If there is interest in this thread I will continue.

In order of preference I look first at:

1. Class
2. Distance
3. Pace
4. Style
5. Weight

john del riccio
05-26-2007, 09:37 AM
Surface, Distance, Class, Pace, Speed, Form, Connections.

Tom
05-26-2007, 09:57 AM
Before the first thing.....is the track offered anywhere I have an account?:bang:

Good4Now
05-26-2007, 11:23 AM
I hope ALL the races you find are available to your account...and there are ALWAYS funds available!

JOHN: As you were the first to mention 'CONNECTIONS' do you have a preference (among the "FRANCHISE" trainers i.e. Amoss, Frankel, Pletcher) as to whether or NOT they are 'On the Grounds' for the race???
Would you favor a RULE change to where the named trainer MUST saddle the horse????

cj: As you mention AGE as your second point do you have set expectations of what the horse SHOULD have accomplished by this point in their careers???
How flexible are you when they fall short???

Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???

To ALL: Do you vary the order you use???
Kind of like brushing your teeth Left Handed to open 'dormant' neural pathways???

Thus gives me 30 POSTS!!!!

kenwoodallpromos
05-26-2007, 12:12 PM
I look at the conditions in order, so class and then distance of race and if "NW" is classified by distance.
In looking at individual horse PP's, after reading the top info, I look first for fitness by regularer works and races and for negative energy signs in the comments without justification.

bellsbendboy
05-26-2007, 12:50 PM
Who is eligible to compete (class) is clearly the first component of cappin. As a difficult exercize, check out the eighth at Churchill Sunday (5/27) and try to determine who "fits"??? BBB

GaryG
05-26-2007, 01:13 PM
See who may be favored by the conditions and then who the probable pace may favor. Then the fun starts.

Cratos
05-26-2007, 01:57 PM
“Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???”

Funny that you talk of omitting the “highweight” because I do just the opposite and this comes from a survey that was conducted by the DRF which found that about 70% of all races are won by the highweight. I don’t play claimers or MSW races at all and very few allowance races. But I have found through my own research that in claimers “weight” is king.

stu
05-26-2007, 02:10 PM
“Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???”

Funny that you talk of omitting the “highweight” because I do just the opposite and this comes from a survey that was conducted by the DRF which found that about 70% of all races are won by the highweight. I don’t play claimers or MSW races at all and very few allowance races. But I have found through my own research that in claimers “weight” is king.

This is absolutely true on the top circuits. At the mid-level tracks and lower, be aware of 'waived weight allowances' to accomodate heavier riders.

It is common at all tracks in New Mexico for some riders to have their agents waive the weight allowances. E.g. a horse might deserve 6 pounds off by race conditions and they will only take 2 or 4 of the allowed 6. This doesn't even include the maximum seven pounds overweight at which some will weigh out.

In short, be careful playing the horse with the highest impost at medium and small tracks.

stu

Overlay
05-26-2007, 04:45 PM
What are the first things you look at when you handicap, such as; conditions of the race, running lines, class, speed ratings, etc.

What is your first intent? To eliminate the race, eliminate horses, find the best horse, etc.

My primary objective is to find the horse with odds that compare most favorably to my assessment of its winning chances. In arriving at that judgment, I look at distance, surface, running style, condition, class, consistency, connections, speed, and track bias.

john del riccio
05-26-2007, 05:04 PM
I hope ALL the races you find are available to your account...and there are ALWAYS funds available!

JOHN: As you were the first to mention 'CONNECTIONS' do you have a preference (among the "FRANCHISE" trainers i.e. Amoss, Frankel, Pletcher) as to whether or NOT they are 'On the Grounds' for the race???
Would you favor a RULE change to where the named trainer MUST saddle the horse????

cj: As you mention AGE as your second point do you have set expectations of what the horse SHOULD have accomplished by this point in their careers???
How flexible are you when they fall short???

Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???

To ALL: Do you vary the order you use???
Kind of like brushing your teeth Left Handed to open 'dormant' neural pathways???

Thus gives me 30 POSTS!!!!

You would be surprised how much better your bottom line would be if you gave a little more credence to the trainer & jockey. There is a reason that a small percentage of jocks/trainers win a large percentage of all races. I persoanlly have to have a higher than expected value to play low % connections. If you are getting more than fair value, its OK to play these types. Otherwise, its a losing prop.

John

Pell Mell
05-26-2007, 05:32 PM
“Cratos: As you are the only one to list weight thus far do you like the somewhat common claiming race where maybe two horses carry about 4 pounds more than the rest who vary about a pound or so if you omit the highweighted ones???”

Funny that you talk of omitting the “highweight” because I do just the opposite and this comes from a survey that was conducted by the DRF which found that about 70% of all races are won by the highweight. I don’t play claimers or MSW races at all and very few allowance races. But I have found through my own research that in claimers “weight” is king.

Question; You don't play claimers, maidens, few allowance races, just what do you play, stakes and handicaps?

Funny thing about highweights, I suspect that the weight has nothing to do with it. The fact that horses are penalized for recent wins would seem to me to be the reason for highweights winning more than their share. If one studies the conditions carefully there are many instances where a horse would be the highweight but for a short time span in the allowances and in most of these races the horses are weighted equally.

Cratos
05-26-2007, 06:15 PM
Question; You don't play claimers, maidens, few allowance races, just what do you play, stakes and handicaps?

Funny thing about highweights, I suspect that the weight has nothing to do with it. The fact that horses are penalized for recent wins would seem to me to be the reason for highweights winning more than their share. If one studies the conditions carefully there are many instances where a horse would be the highweight but for a short time span in the allowances and in most of these races the horses are weighted equally.

There are nearly 500 graded stakes run in North America and I don’t have any idea how many non-graded stakes that are run, but that is where most of, if not all of my wagering is done. Also I will concur with your assertion about highweights winning more than their “fair share” of races.

kenwoodallpromos
05-27-2007, 12:02 AM
number of races as per Jockey Club-
"2006 51,668" (about 51,200 non-graded stakes races).
This is the 15th year out of the last 17 that the actual number of races has dropped, 2 less than the numbers of years the starts per horse average has dropped.

raybo
05-27-2007, 08:56 AM
Since I bet nothing but claimers and cheap allowances, no 2 YO races, and only superfectas, I look to see if there are races on the card(s) that meet these restrictions.

Then I look at distances in those races, 5 1/2f through 1 1/16m only.

The next thing I do is scan each horse's running lines to see which ones are improving or declining in condition, because this determines everything else that will be done as far as handicapping goes.

Once condition has been analyzed I set up a pace scenario for the race, then begin eliminating those horses that can't handle the expected pace. Finally, I look at the horses who can handle the pace and are at an advantage in one way or another. There are too many such advantage scenarios to list but some would be speed horses in a soft pace race, late run horses in a speed loaded field, returns to preferred distance/surface/track, return to previous successful jockey/trainer combo, etc.

I rank all runners capable of finishing in the top 50% of the field, set my win line, then 2nd and 3rd, and finally 4th. Examine the probable odds layout and determine if there is leverage there.

This all determines "my" racecard and these are the only races I look at once the tote starts moving.

(Of course, much of the above is done by my computer.)

Kelso
05-28-2007, 08:32 PM
The next thing I do is scan each horse's running lines to see which ones are improving or declining in condition,

Raybo,
Does "condition" mean "form?"
If not, would you kindly elaborate?
If so, which one or two elements of a running line do you consider paramount?

Thank you.

raybo
05-29-2007, 02:10 AM
Raybo,
Does "condition" mean "form?"
If not, would you kindly elaborate?
If so, which one or two elements of a running line do you consider paramount?

Thank you.

Yes, "form", physical condition.

By "which one or two elements of a running line do you consider paramount?", do you mean regarding determining current condition (form)?

Kelso
05-30-2007, 12:36 AM
By "which one or two elements of a running line do you consider paramount?", do you mean regarding determining current condition (form)?


Yes. Running lines have so many patterns, both within themselves and in context with a horse's other races. I hope to understand better how a line, or lines, can be used to evaluate form.

What is most telling in a running line? Is it final speed, first or second call, lengths ahead/behind, comparison to prior 1-2-3-etc races, something(s) else?

Thanks very much, Raybo.

raybo
05-30-2007, 07:28 AM
Yes. Running lines have so many patterns, both within themselves and in context with a horse's other races. I hope to understand better how a line, or lines, can be used to evaluate form.

What is most telling in a running line? Is it final speed, first or second call, lengths ahead/behind, comparison to prior 1-2-3-etc races, something(s) else?

Thanks very much, Raybo.

If you noticed, I said that I "scan" the running lines. The reason current form is so hard to discern is that there are so many things that must be considered. I have tried to program everything I do when I "scan" running lines. I've yet to be able to do that. There are just too many possibilities. The process, inside my brain, changes with each animal depending on what I "see" as I scan the lines. The human brain, led by the eyes, gathers info like a sponge and all that info gets trapped in the sponge. Many handicappers try to suqeeze it back out and dissect it bit by bit. In my experience, this doesn't work nearly as well as letting your brain keep all the info inside and come to it's own conclusion, resulting in a rather unscientific determination that, "yes, the horse is improving" or "no, the horse is going back", or "ok, he's in good shape". It's more of a feeling than a decision based on specific factors.

I know this seems strange, coming from someone who uses the computer so extensively in the other aspects of handicapping. But, the human brain is a phenominal organ that has yet to be duplicated by technology, IMO. You have to "blank" your mind and at the same time, sift through it. I can't put into words the exact process. Maybe the correct term is "experience" rather than "analyze" the picture presented by the lines, especially the data "between the lines".

Kelso
05-30-2007, 10:30 PM
If you noticed, I said that I "scan" the running lines.
<snip>
Maybe the correct term is "experience" rather than "analyze" the picture presented by the lines, especially the data "between the lines".


Understood. Was hoping, of course, for something more precise :) ... but you've made very clear how you get what you get from the lines.

Thanks again.

Pell Mell
06-01-2007, 04:57 PM
If you noticed, I said that I "scan" the running lines. The reason current form is so hard to discern is that there are so many things that must be considered. I have tried to program everything I do when I "scan" running lines. I've yet to be able to do that. There are just too many possibilities. The process, inside my brain, changes with each animal depending on what I "see" as I scan the lines. The human brain, led by the eyes, gathers info like a sponge and all that info gets trapped in the sponge. Many handicappers try to suqeeze it back out and dissect it bit by bit. In my experience, this doesn't work nearly as well as letting your brain keep all the info inside and come to it's own conclusion, resulting in a rather unscientific determination that, "yes, the horse is improving" or "no, the horse is going back", or "ok, he's in good shape". It's more of a feeling than a decision based on specific factors.

I know this seems strange, coming from someone who uses the computer so extensively in the other aspects of handicapping. But, the human brain is a phenominal organ that has yet to be duplicated by technology, IMO. You have to "blank" your mind and at the same time, sift through it. I can't put into words the exact process. Maybe the correct term is "experience" rather than "analyze" the picture presented by the lines, especially the data "between the lines".

Good Post, I do something along those lines except I use the word "shape". To me, running lines are probably one of the most important and least understood of all factors. Most of them take shape with an inclined line running from left to right on a speed horse and from right to left on closers working up from the bottom. Experience garnered from many years of study causes the mind to form shapes or patterns that indicate which way a horse is headed.:confused:

classhandicapper
06-01-2007, 05:26 PM
Class/conditions, surface, distance - to know what kind of horse I am looking for.

classhandicapper
06-01-2007, 06:13 PM
You would be surprised how much better your bottom line would be if you gave a little more credence to the trainer & jockey. There is a reason that a small percentage of jocks/trainers win a large percentage of all races. I persoanlly have to have a higher than expected value to play low % connections. If you are getting more than fair value, its OK to play these types. Otherwise, its a losing prop. John

I agree.

I find that horses with good connections (jockey and trainer) tend to run the race I expect much more often than those with poor connections. That higher level of consistency gets them into the winners circle more often. The public can sometimes start overbetting them when they get hot, but the horses still tend to run better.

demaloot
06-27-2007, 11:00 AM
First things i look for-

Race Conditions- Class

I then highlight the first 3 M/L favs, just to have a focus

Then i look at probable race shape

etc.