2007 Preakness Software Picks

[Secretariat]

I'll start this since I liked the Derby thread

Preakness (0ver last 10 years)

POL Wolson’s best record of the Triple Crown
PL96- 40% -3.03 ROI
CA - 60% - 2.54 ROI
PFS (T2+ rating) - 43%- 2.43 ROI
TJF – 30% - 2.04 ROI
UL – 50% - 1.68 ROI
XA – 40% - 1.62 ROI
Con – 50% - 1.60 ROI

Lightning Profits
SOH – 50% - 3.75 ROI
SOR – 50% - 4.29 ROI

This year’s picks beside the method

POL Wolson
PL96 – Hard Spun (Hit with Bernadini last year with this method - 40%)
CA - Street Sense (Best win percent 60% but generally lower prices)
PFS (T2+ rating) - XChanger (T2+ hit back in the late 90's, but not lately)
TJF – Flying First Class (Again a 30% hit rate with bigger prices)
UL – Street Sense (Also a 50% hit rate with lower prices)
XA – Curlin (THere are better percent methods for price)
Con – Street Sense (Another 50% lower price hit rate)

Obviously, Steve;'s program shows Street Sense with a 50%-60% rate with a decent return and should win the race. Hardspun looks like the competition, but there are a couple of exacta horses above who could slip in.

Lightning Profits
SOH – Street Sense
SOR – Street Sense

LP had even a higher ROI rate on thise two ratings and Street Sense wins hands down. They were right 50% of the time. Then again, they were wrong 50% of the time, but a nice profit.

I'll be curious to see the other software progras selections.

[wes]

Hard Spun
Xcharger
Streete Sense

wes

[PaceAdvantage]

My home grown software output:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/Preakness_2007.htm


That, combined with my sense of how the track is playing, leads me to HARD SPUN as the best pick.

[Maji]

My picks for a boxed exacta is 8-7-4.

[BillW]

What my computer thinks:

7 - Hard Spun
2 - Xchanger
8 - Street Sense
9 - C P West

[acorn54]

jcapper odds line

hard spun at 5/2

flying first class at 4-1

street sense at 5-1

king of the roxy at 7-1

[cj]

My figures for the whole card can be found here:

http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/preaknesscard (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/preaknesscard.htm)

Condensed version:

http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/preaknesscardC

Here is a new version that includes running lines, just the Preakness:

http://www.pacefigures.com/preakness (http://www.pacefigures.com/preakness)


(http://www.pacefigures.com/Pim070519)

[njcurveball]

jcapper odds line

hard spun at 5/2

flying first class at 4-1

street sense at 5-1

king of the roxy at 7-1

Are you serious, or just trying to get people to bet these horses? If it is based on Probability and not some Ouija Board, no computer program worth a dime would not make Street Sense the favorite.

If you truly think Flying First Class is accurate at 4-1, bet a lot and quit your job! That horse will be 20-1 minimum.

Leaving out Curlin means that he is over 8-1 on your line? He is going off under 4-1 and probably even less.

King of the Roxy is 15-1 on an accurate line.

If you trust this line, run to the bank and bet a ton! You have 300%, 400%, 500% overlays!

TRUE ODDS would be

Street Sense 3-2
Curlin 3-1
Hard Spun 7-2
Circular Ouay 7-1
King of the Roxy 15-1
Xchanger 16-1
Mint Slewlep 25-1
Flying First Class 25-1
CP West 40-1

[Jeff P]

Using JCapper and a Bris $1.00 Single Format DRF Data File I get the following odds lines:

2005 Program Version:
http://www.jcapper.com/Preak07_J2005.html

9/2 HARD SPUN
6/1 STREET SENSE
6/1 FLYING FIRST CLASS
7/1 XCHANGER
7/1 CURLIN
10/1 KING OF THE ROXY




JCapper2007:
http://www.jcapper.com/Preak07_J2007.html

5/2 FLYING FIRST CLASS
4/1 HARD SPUN
5/1 STREET SENSE
7/1 CURLIN
10/1 C P WEST
15/1 XCHANGER



In JCapper it's also possible for a user to pick their own factors, as well as the conditions under which those factors will be used, assign weights to those factors, and create a User Defined PowerRating or UPR. From there the User can roll that UPR into a custom odds line. That may be the basis for Acorn getting 5/2 for Street Sense.

The Odds Line driven by my own JCapper UPR looks like this:
http://www.jcapper.com/Preak07_JeffsUPR.html

3/1 HARD SPUN
4/1 STREET SENSE
5/1 XCHANGER
7/1 KING OF THE ROXY
10/1 CURLIN
13/1 C P WEST




posted by njcurveball: Are you serious, or just trying to get people to bet these horses? If it is based on Probability and not some Ouija Board, no computer program worth a dime would not make Street Sense the favorite.

If you truly think Flying First Class is accurate at 4-1, bet a lot and quit your job! That horse will be 20-1 minimum.

Leaving out Curlin means that he is over 8-1 on your line? He is going off under 4-1 and probably even less.

King of the Roxy is 15-1 on an accurate line.

If you trust this line, run to the bank and bet a ton! You have 300%, 400%, 500% overlays!Ridicule said algorithms all you want. And if they are wrong about this one race so be it. But know this: When you evaluate their performance over large numbers of races they hold up. The algorithms driving the odds lines (despite claims that I used a Ouiji Board :D :D) rely on historical probability involving factors that aren't always apparent to the betting public (or other software.) Because they incorporate different thinking from that of most players the algorithms do a really good job of pointing out horses with hidden positives in their past performance records. At the same time they can also do a good job of downgrading the chances of horses likely to attract excess amounts of money in the pools.

Good Luck to everybody!


-jp

.

[Jeff P]

Edit...

In my above post change the following sentence from: That may be the basis for Acorn getting 5/2 for Street Sense.
to:That may be the basis for Acorn getting 5/2 for Hard Spun.


-jp

.

[Jingle]

These are MPH Preakness picks using auto 2 pacelines:

[timtam]

Okay I fired up my trusty computer and here we go:

Winergy:

8 Street Sense 244
7 Hard Spun 244
2 Xchanger 235
3 Circular Quay 233
4 Curlin 232
5 King of 225
9 Cp West 216
6 Flying 215
1 Mint 212

Win-Generate
8 Street Sense 96

Max 21:
a three way tie with 38 points
5 King of
6 Flying
7 Hard Spun

Double Dozen:
8 Street Sense
7 Hard Spun
3 Circular Quay
4 Curlin

Place to Win / Show a Profit:
Place / Show
8 Street Sense / 5 King of the Roxy

[chrisl]

My Es Picks..... profiler..... default pacelines..Equisim nailed the derby, and was very nice to my wallet on the under cards, lets see what happens today.
I just might see a brand new BBQ in my future...:jump: ..Chrisl


2/1 Street Sense
3/1 Hard Spun
4/1 King of the Roxy

[Ponyplayr]

ALL-IN-ONE V6 ALL-IN-ONE V6
05/19/07 Race #12 PIM 1 3/16 Miles Dirt Fast
Post: 6:09PM (06:09 PM) 9 entries
STK G1 Open Age: 3 YO, No Sex Restrictions
No Model Available No E/P/S available No WMF No PCP
Race Type : Orderly

=================================BETTING LINE==================================
Fair Bet WP WPS ML DSLR Comments
SC Horse name Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Street Sense 2/1 3/1 7/1 14/1 7/5 14 rail to lane,split,drv
7 Hard Spun 3/1 4/1 9/1 19/1 5/2 14 bobble 1/8p,2ndbest
2 Xchanger 6/1 8/1 20/1 40/1 15/1 28 2wd,handily final 1/16
4 Curlin 7/2 14 steady early,5w bid
5 King of the Roxy 12/1 42 3wd bid,led,caught
3 Circular Quay 8/1 14 bmp 5/16s,no threat
9 C P West 20/1 21 came wide, rallied
1 Mint Slewlep 30/1 21 3 wide, mild rally
6 Flying First Class 20/1 21 botherd start,mid move

[njcurveball]

JCapper2007:
http://www.jcapper.com/Preak07_J2007.html

5/2 FLYING FIRST CLASS
4/1 HARD SPUN
5/1 STREET SENSE
7/1 CURLIN
10/1 C P WEST
15/1 XCHANGER



.

5-2 on a natural 20-1 shot. Nah, why ridicule that if your program says they win 28% of the time and pay $40 you have enough money to buy my whole town and kick me out.

Seriously though, how are you doing on these 5-2 shots when they go off over 20-1? Surely have records for that. And those records have to look like they win a whole lot less than 28% of the time.

[keilan]

What I think!!!

Street Sense / Circular Quay - Flying First Class

[singunner]

My program's output:

Street Sense - 18.2%
Curlin - 17.7%
Hard Spun - 17.4%
Circular Quay - 15.4%
C P West - 10.1%
King of the Roxy - 8.2%
Flying First Class - 7.8%
Xchanger - 6.4%
Mint Slewlep - 4.6%

We'll see.

[cj]

5-2 on a natural 20-1 shot. Nah, why ridicule that if your program says they win 28% of the time and pay $40 you have enough money to buy my whole town and kick me out.

Seriously though, how are you doing on these 5-2 shots when they go off over 20-1? Surely have records for that. And those records have to look like they win a whole lot less than 28% of the time.

They don't have to win 28% of the time. Actually, 5% would be just fine. The point is to have your line have you bet overlays, not be perfect.

[njcurveball]

They don't have to win 28% of the time. Actually, 5% would be just fine. The point is to have your line have you bet overlays, not be perfect.

So you are happy when your program gives a horse a 28% chance and then the results say they win 5%.

The whole point of assigning probabilities is to have your first choice win more your 2nd, 2nd more than 3rd, etc.

Do a study on the final odds of horses. Any subset over 20-1 will not win 20% of the time even with the best systems.

[cj]

So you are happy when your program gives a horse a 28% chance and then the results say they win 5%.

The whole point of assigning probabilities is to have your first choice win more your 2nd, 2nd more than 3rd, etc.

Do a study on the final odds of horses. Any subset over 20-1 will not win 20% of the time even with the best systems.

That may be your whole point. My point of assigning an odds line is to point out horses to bet. If I assign a group of horses that are 20 to 1 a 20% chance to win, and they only win 10%, guess what? I'm killing this game. That is all I care about, not how my numbers line up.

[singunner]

It's my experience that when the odds are lower than what I assign to horses, the horses win 1.3 times more often than I predict. Conversely, when the odds are over what I predict would be fair, the horses win half as often as I predict.

And I predicted that would happen, so what's the big deal? Unless I just completely missed the point of njcurveball's fussing, isn't it perfectly natural to assume that this would take place? Haven't we all accepted the wisdom of crowds? Making an oddsline is just like baseball's old saying "hit it where they ain't". If you're using different/unique enough variables to create it, the crowd being better than your predictions from time to time is nothing to worry about.

[betovernetcapper]

For some reasone The Capper loves SS today.

[EQUIPACE]

Hello All... My homegrown report using Excel - Equisim and a couple of other programs points to --> 7 - 8 - 4 - 3 - 2

I've attached the report as well.... GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL!

John
~¿o

[Jeff P]

5-2 on a natural 20-1 shot. Nah, why ridicule that if your program says they win 28% of the time and pay $40 you have enough money to buy my whole town and kick me out.A while back I wrote a help doc/article to give new users a feel for what to expect from some of the algorithm generated numbers.

http://www.jcapper.com/HelpDocs/DBFoundations.htm

Scroll down to the section underneath the heading labelled JPRMLProb. That's the algorithm driving the odds lines that I posted for this race. There you'll find data summaries showing actual performance of the algorithm across all odds ranges - broken out both by rank and by raw probability.

Seriously though, how are you doing on these 5-2 shots when they go off over 20-1? Surely have records for that. And those records have to look like they win a whole lot less than 28% of the time.A 5/2 odds line selection can be defined in terms of raw probability as follows: min value = .2506 and max value = .2857. Doing that first insures that we are in fact only looking at natural 5/2 odds line selections. My Q1 2007 database for 5/2 Naturals broken out by post time odds looks like this:

UDM Definition: 5-2-Naturals
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

JPRMLProb: MinRank= -999 MaxRank= 999
MinVal= 0.25063 MaxVal= 0.28571
MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Filters Applied:

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: D:\2007\Q1_2007\pl_profile.txt


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 3783.60 3592.30 3489.50
Bet -3954.00 -3954.00 -3954.00
Gain -170.40 -361.70 -464.50

Wins 525 883 1148
Plays 1977 1977 1977
PCT .2656 .4466 .5807

ROI 0.9569 0.9085 0.8825
Avg Mut 7.21 4.07 3.04



By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.10 16.00 1.0062 6 8 .7500
0.50 1.00 -42.20 256.00 0.8352 61 128 .4766
1.00 1.50 -64.70 528.00 0.8775 106 264 .4015
1.50 2.00 -119.20 604.00 0.8026 90 302 .2980
2.00 2.50 -28.50 594.00 0.9520 89 297 .2997
2.50 3.00 -49.20 424.00 0.8840 51 212 .2406
3.00 3.50 -43.30 300.00 0.8557 31 150 .2067
3.50 4.00 3.60 250.00 1.0144 27 125 .2160
4.00 4.50 -39.20 152.00 0.7421 11 76 .1447
4.50 5.00 -13.20 116.00 0.8862 9 58 .1552
5.00 5.50 -44.00 130.00 0.6615 7 65 .1077
5.50 6.00 27.60 92.00 1.3000 9 46 .1957
6.00 6.50 0.00 86.00 1.0000 6 43 .1395
6.50 7.00 1.40 44.00 1.0318 3 22 .1364
7.00 7.50 -18.00 34.00 0.4706 1 17 .0588
7.50 8.00 -10.40 28.00 0.6286 1 14 .0714
8.00 8.50 29.00 26.00 2.1154 3 13 .2308
8.50 9.00 43.80 34.00 2.2882 4 17 .2353
9.00 9999.00 196.00 240.00 1.8167 10 120 .0833

Yeah - when the crowd makes them 9-1 or higher they win a lot less often than 28 percent. That should be a no brainer to everybody. But the line gives me added insight into those horses that the public doesn't have. Taken as a group those horses have hidden positives in their records that the crowd is ignoring. In the long run I'm more than happy betting them.



-jp

.

[Tom]

....no computer program worth a dime would not make Street Sense the favorite.



I'll tell Ken that HTR is not worth a dime........:lol:

[njcurveball]

I'll tell Ken that HTR is not worth a dime........:lol:


I think Ken would revamp his program if it put Flyin First Class on top with 5-2 odds.

Check out the HTR screen and you will see Street Sense on top.

Enjoy your laugh and have a great day! Check out the velocity screen and you will see Steet Sense on top.

But you already knew that and simply wanted to jump in this thread, enjoy the water, I am jumping out of it now.

CIAO!

p.s. I hope Equibase doesn't sue you for publishing copyrighted data on the web! :lol:

[Jeff P]

Currently about 12 mtp...

http://www.jcapper.com/Preak07LivePlay.html

Screenshot of JCapper Live Play Module at 25 mtp showing JPRToteProb



-jp

.

[singunner]

Well, I'm still in Kentucky visiting my grandmother and mother, so I figured I'd stop by Keeneland and make my first-ever bet. I didn't see value on a win bet, but my program put Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun as being head-and-shoulders above the rest, so I did an exacta box of Street Sense/Curlin and another box of Street Sense/Hard Spun. Cost me four dollars.

I challenge anyone in this forum to show a higher lifetime ROI than I have right now. ;)

[bigmack]

Software Picks in the ballpark:
PA: Curlin 3rd choice
Njscrewball: Curlin 2nd choice
Singunner: Curlin 2nd choice
Equipace: Curlin 3rd choice
Tom: Curlin 3rd choice

[Tom]

Well, I'm still in Kentucky visiting my grandmother and mother, so I figured I'd stop by Keeneland and make my first-ever bet. I didn't see value on a win bet, but my program put Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun as being head-and-shoulders above the rest, so I did an exacta box of Street Sense/Curlin and another box of Street Sense/Hard Spun. Cost me four dollars.

I challenge anyone in this forum to show a higher lifetime ROI than I have right now. ;)

Quit now and write book, sell a tip sheet, whatever! :lol:

[singunner]

Come on, Tom. Let's not make this into a thread about quitting when you hit your goals for the day. :lol:

[Topcat]

< POL Wolson
PL96 – Hard Spun (Hit with Bernadini last year with this method - 40%)
CA - Street Sense (Best win percent 60% but generally lower prices)
TJF – Flying First Class (Again a 30% hit rate with bigger prices)
UL – Street Sense (Also a 50% hit rate with lower prices)
XA – Curlin (THere are better percent methods for price)
Con – Street Sense (Another 50% lower price hit rate)>

Not bad-well the trifecta is in those 4-of course it only paid $50.

Thanks for a fun thread guys.

[JustRalph]

I figured the Software thread would be appropriate, if not somebody turn me in........

Memorial day I am sitting around watching races and baseball/ESPN at the same time. I notice that Pimlico is about to go off..........look at the quick Equisim results on the race and notice as the horses are going in the gate that the second place horse on ES is at 70-1...........I try to drop five across on the horse, just for fun, and get shut out..............it was an awful two minutes as he went to the lead and the announcer starting talking about IRS Windows and such.............but the damn horse almost didn't make it home........he was staggering......but so were the rest.............anybody with HTR, I would love to know how this one looked...........per HTR ? But as you can see, ES picked the second place horse to run next to last....so, what the hell does it know huh? ...but it gave you 3 out of the 4 in the super.........if you can find a replay..........these were some bad horses............. :bang:

Track: Pim Dist: 8.5 Date: May 28, 2007 Race: 5
Run: 1
Horses 2f 4f 6f 8.5 1Call 2Call Stretch Finish Traffic
6 Tricky Wakeup(S 0)[2.50]
2 Hybrid Bay(P 3)[30.00]
7 World Series(E/P 5)[2.00]
5 Rhea's Ambition(S 1)[30.00]
8 Skinamarink(P 4)[3.00]
1A Can Do(NA 2)[15.00]
1 I Am The Future(P 3)[15.00]
3 Perfect Emblem(P 2)[8.00]
4 Classic Zak(P 3)[4.50]

http://www.justralph.com/equisim_pimlico_score.jpg

[Tom]

Cool, Ralph.
I'll get the HTR numbers when I get home from work tonight.

[46zilzal]

Using the Pizzola window, I can't believe the number and prices that the turf has been giving. Longest price of my career on Monday...

[cj]

Can you top this one, which was my top figure in the field on turf? :)

103295629-1
18 8:47am
20-May-07 20-May-07 Horses
Win Louisiana, Race #6
2.Decidely Taken 100.00 +9060.00

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/ladchart.jpg

[Tom]

Here is Key#1 - the predigree increase fromlast race. That is BIG.
I always look at this PPX screen first - it has stuff the public has no access to at all. A big increase in PED is always worth looking at.

[Tom]

Key#2 was that his best two figs ever were at a route, and he is going sprint to route today. Those best figs hardly put him on top today, though.

[PaceAdvantage]

Shhhh...there's folks on here who say you can't win using a computer.....shhhh...

[Gibbon]

Plausible deniability......

It depends what your definition of win and computer is.
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.







____________________________________________
Barry Meadow ~
The Internet has vastly expanded the number of players who claim to be winners....On the typical handicapping message board, almost nobody admits they're consistent losers.

[DanG]

The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
Curious; :confused:

Then how did you ever learn anything?

[keilan]

Can you top this one, which was my top figure in the field on turf? :)

103295629-1
18 8:47am
20-May-07 20-May-07 Horses
Win Louisiana, Race #6
2.Decidely Taken 100.00 +9060.00

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/ladchart.jpg



That's as good a "win wager" as I've ever seen.

[Gibbon]

...Then how did you ever learn anything? School of hard knocks. By loosing a quarter million from 1982 through 1998.

And than winning it all back with interest.









____________________________
Barry Meadow ~
The Internet has vastly expanded the number of players who claim to be winners....On the typical handicapping message board, almost nobody admits they're consistent losers.

[46zilzal]

$250,000 huh? interesting claim

[JustRalph]

$250,000 huh? interesting claim

Look him up. Google Barry Meadow............

It's only 15k or so thru the window a year, during the losing years.

and about triple that back over the winning 9 years. Depends on what you call "interest"

[ryesteve]

Look him up. Google Barry Meadow............
Gibbon is Barry Meadow?? :confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

Gibbon is Barry Meadow?? :confused:


Ummmmm...nope!

[ryesteve]

Yeah, I didn't think so. I guess that means we should Google "Gibbon" instead, but I doubt we'd find anything that looks like it'd bet a quarter million on horses :)

[chickenhead]

:confused:

[JustRalph]

Gibbon is Barry Meadow?? :confused:

you guys are no fun..............spoiler..........

[Gibbon]

Gibbon looks suspiciously like Tom's avatar.

Could Gibbon be a kindler, gentler Tom?
Or, perhaps a devotee of the great one.









___________________________________
I have as much authority as the Pope. I just don’t have as many people who believe it.

[banacek]

School of hard knocks. By loosing a quarter million from 1982 through 1998.

And than winning it all back with interest.

Well, I certainly would like to hear more about this!

[Ponyplayr]

Can you top this one, which was my top figure in the field on turf? :)

103295629-1
18 8:47am
20-May-07 20-May-07 Horses
Win Louisiana, Race #6
2.Decidely Taken 100.00 +9060.00

http://www.pacefigures.com/images/ladchart.jpg
Then why did it pay large?? Lack of faith in the numbers? Or did everyone fall asleep.