Preakness Fair-Odds Line

[Overlay]

Street Sense (6-5)
Hard Spun (9-2)
Curlin (9-2)
Xchanger (11-1)
Flying First Class (23-1)
C P West (30-1)
Circular Quay (31-1)
King of the Roxy (33-1)
Mint Slewlep (80-1)

[Greyfox]

Circular Quay (31-1)


Circular Quay (31-1):lol:

[GaryG]

I would take Hard Spun at a lot less than 9-2....hope so!

[joeyspicks]

be VERY glad to get 9/2 on CURLIN !

[andicap]

I'll take Circular Quay at 30-1 across the board. Good exotic shot.
Just wish he wasn't so far back early. But might be a good pace tomorrow to at least get him in the money.
Hard Spun could very well bounce after tough race and only 2 weeks rest (especially with running a top after six weeks off.) Derby second place finishers have lousy history at Preakness and while I'm willing to put history aside, not at short prices.

Street Sense had a top but did it on an easy trip and I find closers are prone to bounce as much as early horses.

I'm still trying to evaluate Curlin.

[BetHorses!]

I would take 3-1 on Hard Spun and 10-1 Circular

[PaceAdvantage]

Circular Quay can not win the Preakness. No way, no how. Never in a million years. 300-1 ain't enough.

This is of course based on what happened today, which may not happen tomorrow. As of now, if you don't have decent early speed, you can't win a route race at Pimlico.

Colts with decent early speed in the Preakness:

HARD SPUN
C P WEST
XCHANGER
MINT SLEWLEP

Your winner will come out of these four, most likely. If any closer is going to win, it will be Street Sense, but his odds will make him a terrible bet.

Based on how the track played today, Hard Spun is the horse to beat Saturday. Fair Odds? 4/1, which you probably won't get. Still, it's world's better than the 7/5 you're going to get on Street Sense, who is pace and trip dependant.

[cj]

The winner of the 3rd didn't have much speed and won handily, albeit at 1 to 2.

Still, how many real contenders today didn't have early speed? All the results looked logical, with winners coming from the front, pressing, and the back in the route races, and sprints too for that matter.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, like I said, I don't look at the charts....I look at my model, and my model looks like this for Friday.....as you can see, the T1 and T2 (First Call and Second Call) rankings won 4 of 5 (top two) and 3 of 5 (top) including the not so obvious winners of the 8th and the 11th ($16 and $13.60 payoffs):

[PaceAdvantage]

I do see your point though CJ....obviously, all these winners "figured" on the basis of final time alone, and a five race sample is hardly strong evidence of a track that will carry early speed home no matter what....

It is interesting to note that as the day wore on, the model went more in favor of early speed and less in favor of late speed (LF or Last Fraction on my little model screen).

[JimG]

Circular Quay can not win the Preakness. No way, no how. Never in a million years. 300-1 ain't enough.



I was on the fence before, but now I am playing him for sure...to win and place. :lol:

Jim

[BetHorses!]

Circular Quay can not win the Preakness. No way, no how. Never in a million years. 300-1 ain't enough.

This is of course based on what happened today, which may not happen tomorrow. As of now, if you don't have decent early speed, you can't win a route race at Pimlico.




Not sure I agree with you re Circular Quay. He had traffic issues which he will not have here and will get a solid pace to run at with all the Early type runners in here. Logical contenter for the exacta and could take it all. Definite value.

But I will state something that might make you bet more on Hard Spun:

Teuflesberg 17th
Stormello 19th
Cowtown Cat 20th

Those three were the closest to him the first half. Also, with Xchanger and Flying first class to his inside, I think he will stalk today.

[GaryG]

Also, with Xchanger and Flying first class to his inside, I think he will stalk today.Yes, I was a bit undecided until he drew outside. Now I love him to death. I see no reason he can't stalk.

[whobet]

r1-10/1a/8/4
r2-4/9/1/7
r3-6/5/1/10
r4-7/8/6/10
r5-2/3/1A/9
r6-5/8/6/7
r7-4/5/10/3
r8-2/6/7/5
r9-6/4/3/2
r10-9/3/10/12
r11-7/8/9/4
r12-7/8/3/4
r13-6/7/3/11

[Greyfox]

I think I think more than y'all think I think.

I think not. (Madam Descartes)

[danmurphy jr]

The favorite has won 5 of the last 6. That being said.
PIMLICO: Rain 60'
2nd #5 Proveyourlove 30/1 OUT @???
5th-#6 Sandy's Gold 8/1
12t #6 Flying First Class 20/1

BELMONT PARK: Rain 60'
4th #5 Winaway 5/2
7th #2 Super Nationals 6/1
8th #2 Rahys' Appeal 3/1

[PaceAdvantage]

Be careful out there folks....SMART PACE just won at 10/1 in a route at PIM and had the best T1/T2 profile....just like Hard Spun...Looks like speed is doing just as well today as it did yesterday....

[BetHorses!]

Be careful out there folks....SMART PACE just won at 10/1 in a route at PIM and had the best T1/T2 profile....just like Hard Spun...Looks like speed is doing just as well today as it did yesterday....


Do you think Spun will be on the lead?

[Tom]

I was on the fence before, but now I am playing him for sure...to win and place. :lol:

Jim

Me too!
I just called Ditech! :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Do you think Spun will be on the lead?

Depends on how crazy Lukas wants to get....

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's see, another route race is about to be run at Pimlico. I've got two longshots that fit the profile I have developed thus far for routes, that continues to point to Hard Spun.

The #2 (Two Sixty Four) and #3 (Take the Bluff) in the 11th race fit the T1/T2 profile (now more of a T2 only profile -- Top T2 has won 5 of last 6 route races). Two Sixty Four has the top T2 number on my program...

[Tom]

Flashy Bull.....didn't TLG like that one on his show? ;)

[BetHorses!]

The #2 (Two Sixty Four)


I'll give you the other one as a stretch but this one. You would need 50-1 to bet. Good Luck with Spun

[PaceAdvantage]

Here's my excuse....the rain changed the track....lol

And oh yeah, Mario Pino blew the ride big time....talk about a premature move.

At least CQ didn't win....