Turf to Synthetic

[kitts]

Starting to hear more about this and DRF is tracking it as a trainer stat. I am not convinced that going from turf to poly is that good. Especially when route to sprint, sprint to route, 2nd/3rd off a layoff, etc tend to muddy the stats. I was hoping someone was tracking this angle and would comment on it. Especially for Hollywood Park.

[cj]

It is obvious to me at least that horses that have running on turf are much, much more likely to handle fake dirt than they are real dirt.

[Tom]

Starting to hear more about this and DRF is tracking it as a trainer stat. I am not convinced that going from turf to poly is that good. Especially when route to sprint, sprint to route, 2nd/3rd off a layoff, etc tend to muddy the stats. I was hoping someone was tracking this angle and would comment on it. Especially for Hollywood Park.

I am working a a study by track, to track. I see a significant difference depending on the track. But so far, I agree with CJ, enough to be bettting into that angle regularly.

[Jeff P]

Here's what I have for races run on Poly... 1/1/2006 to 5/10/2007... at APX-HOL-KEE-TPX-WOX:

Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -6434.40 29712.00 0.7834 1669 14856 .1123 1.0100 D to D
1 -18.60 226.00 0.9177 16 113 .1416 1.2729 d to D
4 -174.70 2952.00 0.9408 197 1476 .1335 1.1999 T to D
5 62.40 50.00 2.2480 5 25 .2000 1.7980 t to D



and then at HOL only during that same time period:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -659.80 3442.00 0.8083 204 1721 .1185 1.0226 D to D
1 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 d to D
4 -176.60 810.00 0.7820 58 405 .1432 1.2355 T to D
5 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 t to D



KEE:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -530.20 3054.00 0.8264 147 1527 .0963 0.9419 D to D
1 -4.40 16.00 0.7250 1 8 .1250 1.2231 d to D
4 109.40 906.00 1.1208 61 453 .1347 1.3176 T to D
5 -5.80 32.00 0.8188 4 16 .2500 2.4461 t to D




TPX:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2667.60 12928.00 0.7937 757 6464 .1171 1.0269 D to D
1 -24.60 38.00 0.3526 2 19 .1053 0.9230 d to D
4 -185.60 532.00 0.6511 31 266 .1165 1.0219 T to D
5 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 t to D




WOX:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2584.60 9350.00 0.7236 507 4675 .1084 1.0019 D to D
1 12.40 170.00 1.0729 13 85 .1529 1.4130 d to D
4 114.50 616.00 1.1859 42 308 .1364 1.2598 T to D
5 82.20 4.00 21.5500 1 2 .5000 4.6193 t to D

-jp

.

[bobphilo]

Starting to hear more about this and DRF is tracking it as a trainer stat. I am not convinced that going from turf to poly is that good. Especially when route to sprint, sprint to route, 2nd/3rd off a layoff, etc tend to muddy the stats. I was hoping someone was tracking this angle and would comment on it. Especially for Hollywood Park.

Transfer of turf form to Poly makes sense and is no surprise since it was designed to have similar superior shock absobing and energy return properties of grass. Also much like grass, minimal breakaway and better traction.

Bob

[Valuist]

Turf to Poly may have SOME significance but, despite what the TVG analysts have said, a Polytrack specialist cannot be assumed to handle grass the same

[Robert Fischer]

Good post what do the surface shift numbers 0,1,4,5 represent?

Here's what I have for races run on Poly... 1/1/2006 to 5/10/2007... at APX-HOL-KEE-TPX-WOX:

Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -6434.40 29712.00 0.7834 1669 14856 .1123 1.0100 D to D
1 -18.60 226.00 0.9177 16 113 .1416 1.2729 d to D
4 -174.70 2952.00 0.9408 197 1476 .1335 1.1999 T to D
5 62.40 50.00 2.2480 5 25 .2000 1.7980 t to D



and then at HOL only during that same time period:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -659.80 3442.00 0.8083 204 1721 .1185 1.0226 D to D
1 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000 d to D
4 -176.60 810.00 0.7820 58 405 .1432 1.2355 T to D
5 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000 t to D



KEE:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -530.20 3054.00 0.8264 147 1527 .0963 0.9419 D to D
1 -4.40 16.00 0.7250 1 8 .1250 1.2231 d to D
4 109.40 906.00 1.1208 61 453 .1347 1.3176 T to D
5 -5.80 32.00 0.8188 4 16 .2500 2.4461 t to D




TPX:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2667.60 12928.00 0.7937 757 6464 .1171 1.0269 D to D
1 -24.60 38.00 0.3526 2 19 .1053 0.9230 d to D
4 -185.60 532.00 0.6511 31 266 .1165 1.0219 T to D
5 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000 t to D




WOX:
Surface Shift Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
0 -2584.60 9350.00 0.7236 507 4675 .1084 1.0019 D to D
1 12.40 170.00 1.0729 13 85 .1529 1.4130 d to D
4 114.50 616.00 1.1859 42 308 .1364 1.2598 T to D
5 82.20 4.00 21.5500 1 2 .5000 4.6193 t to D

-jp

.

[Jeff P]

Good post what do the surface shift numbers 0,1,4,5 represent?They are numbers used by the software that correspond to a change in surface. Slide the scrollbar at the bottom of each block all the way over to the right to see the text description.

0 = Outer Dirt to Outer Dirt
1 = Inner Dirt to Outer Dirt
4 = Outer Turf to Outer Dirt
5 = Inner Turf to Outer Dirt

Attaching meaning by using a number makes it possible to code surface change into an algorithm within the software.

For example...
If SurfaceShift = 4 Then
'This horse is going Outer Turf to Outer Dirt...
'Bump Power Rating 2 Points
PowerRating = PowerRating + 2
End If


-jp

.

[andicap]

Jeff,
I'm a moron -- you say "Outer Dirt." Is that what are calling Poly (or Cushion)???
and "Inner Dirt" is regular dirt track?

[Jeff P]

Jeff,
I'm a moron -- you say "Outer Dirt." Is that what [you] are calling Poly (or Cushion)???
and "Inner Dirt" is regular dirt track?
__________________
andicap
Andy,

Inner dirt (the way I used it in my post) refers to an inner dirt course - as in the one they run on at AQU during the winter - or the one they ran on while they tore up the outer at WOX in mid meet last year to install the new artificial surface. Likewise inner and outer turf have the same meaning. Some tracks have both an inner and an outer turf course.

The data posted is for races that were run on Poly or Cushion track only. So far (to my knowledge) all races run on an artificial surface in North America have been run on an outer "dirt" course and not an inner. The data shows a summary of not just turf to poly but inner and outer turf to poly.

Hope that makes sense.


-jp

.

[chickenhead]

I knew turf form transferred well, but didn't realize how well. Flat bet profit betting all turf to poly horses at AP, KEE, and WOX? Wow.