Beyer Longshot System

[dav4463]

Could this be tweaked to make it a viable method? I like the fact that you almost always get a price horse to play. Here is the method.

Eliminate the three horses picked in the consensus of the DRF as a win bet. Also eliminate any horse coming off of a layoff of one year or more or has only one race after a layoff of one year or more.

Also eliminate any horse whose Beyer figure or figures are 20+ points lower than it's pre-layoff figures.(layoff of 45 days or more)

Also eliminate in claiming races only any horse who is dropping in class following a win.

Of the other horses, look at the best Beyer in each horses last three races.

Your key horses are the two horses with the best Beyers in their last three races. (if there is a tie, you can have three key horses)

Play to win at odds of 5-1 or higher.

Box with consensus choices in exactas or quinellas.

[Wizard of Odds]

Look at the last 1000 races, see the win % and if it makes a profit.

Try it on the next 1000 races and see the win % and the profit.

We can then tell the significance of your "method" via statistics.

[Greyfox]

Also eliminate in claiming races only any horse who is dropping in class following a win.


Go careful here. Some trainers are experts at pulling this one.
Might be a good general rule, but know thy trainer.

[Light]

Your key horses are the two horses with the best Beyers in their last three races. (if there is a tie, you can have three key horses)


This is the key to your system and this rule needs alot of expansion. It is also the central debate between those believing in 1 PL and others believing in multiple pacelines. If your horse looked like this,what would be more accurate:

Last race 10k: 68 beyer
2 back 40k: 92 beyer
3 back 40k: 98 beyer

Got to look at class. This horse is a 68 not a 95. Single PL would be more accurate in this case.

Distance is another problem. Does a 90 sprinter beat a 90 router? My experience says no. You need a sprinter with at least a 95 to beat a 90 router in general. And there are exceptions to that rule. My experience with Bris data. Not sure about Beyers.

[bobphilo]

Play to win at odds of 5-1 or higher.



Horses with high Beyers (which is what you're using) don't usually go off at over 5-1 unless there is some negative factor, or the Beyer was earned at the wrong distance.
Why limit yourself to over 5-1 when shorter priced horses make up for their lower prices with higher win %. An exception could be with a system which keys on subtle factors that makes horses longshots, but this one that uses recent Beyers does not seem to be one.

Good luck with this, whatever your final method becomes.

Bob

[toddtontv]

question? if beyer numbers really work, even as a tool for capping why didn't he keep them a secret and become a billioniare!

[Greyfox]

question? if beyer numbers really work, even as a tool for capping why didn't he keep them a secret and become a billioniare!

Stamina figs are only part of the handicapping process. But they sure help.

[toddtontv]

so are you saying beyer just likes us so much that he sold his figures to the drf ? your response does not answer the question, if they work so well, why sell them? even as a tool, won't he have the dream that every handicapper wants that would give him the edge ?

[Greyfox]

so are you saying beyer just likes us so much that he sold his figures to the drf ? your response does not answer the question, if they work so well, why sell them? even as a tool, won't he have the dream that every handicapper wants that would give him the edge ?

He makes money yearly from the DRF.
They are not stand alone. Beyer never claimed they were. You'll go broke just betting Beyers without any other considerations. Good luck handicapping with out some type of stamina figure somewhere.

[bobphilo]

question? if beyer numbers really work, even as a tool for capping why didn't he keep them a secret and become a billioniare!

beyer is not much of a handicapper. he is a newspaper man who wants the widest possible audience. besides, he earns a pretty penny by selling his figures without risking a cent.
in the right hands, in conjunction with other factors, his figures are useful tools.

[toddtontv]

so if I can give any one a figure or number ,and I am 30% right in picking winners would you use my number as a tool, and then I could sell them ?

example: I would Give Street Sense a 20 and hard spun a 18, and Curlin a 16, and if they run that way this week, will you buy my numbers? ok, I am willing to give it a try, talk with you after the race.

[bobphilo]

so if I can give any one a figure or number ,and I am 30% right in picking winners would you use my number as a tool, and then I could sell them ?

example: I would Give Street Sense a 20 and hard spun a 18, and Curlin a 16, and if they run that way this week, will you buy my numbers? ok, I am willing to give it a try, talk with you after the race.

You won't get much business based on one race. Do it with ratings that stand up year to year from track to track and you'll have a good start.

[PaceAdvantage]

beyer is not much of a handicapper. he is a newspaper man who wants the widest possible audience. besides, he earns a pretty penny by selling his figures without risking a cent.

Wow, sounds like you know the man personally. Please elaborate on your relationship a bit so that we can get a better frame of reference for these rather stinging comments of yours.

[bobphilo]

Wow, sounds like you know the man personally. Please elaborate on your relationship a bit so that we can get a better frame of reference for these rather stinging comments of yours.

Beyer himself kids about his handicapping and all columnists want wide public exposure. What's so stinging?

C'mon PA, I'm not the one who's criticizng Beyer and his figures on this thread - I'm defending them - check my posts. It's being charged that his figures are suspect because he publishes them. I'm just pointing out that Beyer is primarily a writer and that's why he doesn't keep them to himself and it doesn't mean they're no good.

Bob

[andicap]

Beyer himself kids about his handicapping and all columnists want wide public exposure. What's so stinging?

C'mon PA, I'm not the one who's criticizng Beyer and his figures on this thread - I'm defending them - check my posts. It's being charged that his figures are suspect because he publishes them. I'm just pointing out that Beyer is primarily a writer and that's why he doesn't keep them to himself and it doesn't mean they're no good.

Bob

I understand where you are coming from Bob, but I think you've overstated it just a bit. Beyer IS a player. He has pushed his share of money through the windows over his career and I believe is a very successful player, but probably only a decent handicapper -- now. I think his refusal to really embrace pace cost him some credibility along the way. But when he started out Beyer used speed figures in relation to trip handicapping and track bias very effectively.

But what REALLY sets Beyer apart from the crowd is his courage -- namely the courage of his convictions. This is a man who is not afraid to hammer it when he sees a real overlay and reap the profits. I would surmise from his books and other articles about him (anyone recall the profile in the NY Times magazine section a while back?) that he is a real home run hitter, not a grinder. So when he wins he really wins with the exotics.

You can cover a multitude of sins as a handicapper if you have the faith (and some ability at least) to swing for the fences -- no matter how many races you have lost recently -- on longshots on the way to making a killing on them.

That's what I admire about Beyer -- his courage and his stamina as a bettor.

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.

[DanG]

I understand where you are coming from Bob, but I think you've overstated it just a bit. Beyer IS a player. He has pushed his share of money through the windows over his career and I believe is a very successful player, but probably only a decent handicapper -- now. I think his refusal to really embrace pace cost him some credibility along the way. But when he started out Beyer used speed figures in relation to trip handicapping and track bias very effectively.

But what REALLY sets Beyer apart from the crowd is his courage -- namely the courage of his convictions. This is a man who is not afraid to hammer it when he sees a real overlay and reap the profits. I would surmise from his books and other articles about him (anyone recall the profile in the NY Times magazine section a while back?) that he is a real home run hitter, not a grinder. So when he wins he really wins with the exotics.

You can cover a multitude of sins as a handicapper if you have the faith (and some ability at least) to swing for the fences -- no matter how many races you have lost recently -- on longshots on the way to making a killing on them.

That's what I admire about Beyer -- his courage and his stamina as a bettor.

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.
Well said Andi!!! :ThmbUp:

[bobphilo]

I understand where you are coming from Bob, but I think you've overstated it just a bit. Beyer IS a player. He has pushed his share of money through the windows over his career and I believe is a very successful player, but probably only a decent handicapper -- now. I think his refusal to really embrace pace cost him some credibility along the way. But when he started out Beyer used speed figures in relation to trip handicapping and track bias very effectively.

But what REALLY sets Beyer apart from the crowd is his courage -- namely the courage of his convictions. This is a man who is not afraid to hammer it when he sees a real overlay and reap the profits. I would surmise from his books and other articles about him (anyone recall the profile in the NY Times magazine section a while back?) that he is a real home run hitter, not a grinder. So when he wins he really wins with the exotics.

You can cover a multitude of sins as a handicapper if you have the faith (and some ability at least) to swing for the fences -- no matter how many races you have lost recently -- on longshots on the way to making a killing on them.

That's what I admire about Beyer -- his courage and his stamina as a bettor.

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.

I hear you Andi. Beyer is a player as well. My point was that he is not soley a horse player, and is primarily a writer, so therefore the fact that he writes about and publishes his figures does not mean the figures are no good. Just the opposite - his figure's widespread popularity attest to their value.

I couldn't agree more with you about the nonsense he's been spouting against Polytarck. Especially when he has the intelligence to know better - but like you said, that's another thread.

Bob

[andicap]

I hear you Andi. Beyer is a player as well. My point was that he is not soley a horse player, and is primarily a writer, so therefore the fact that he writes about and publishes his figures does not mean the figures are no good. Just the opposite - his figure's widespread popularity attest to their value.

I couldn't agree more with you about the nonsense he's been spouting against Polytarck. Especially when he has the intelligence to know better - but like you said, that's another thread.

Bob


And you can still find value with the Beyers. Amazingly enough.

Check out 1st race, May 4 at Belmont. That's our Prize pays $45.20. A 3 yr old filly, 2nd off the layoff, had a 49 Beyer back in February. (and a 37 in his return race at CT).

The 5 had a 56 last time out and the 1 had a 53 two races back and a 26 last race. Six-horse field. Those were the only two Beyers higher than the winner, who, as a 3 yr old, might also be expected to improve a couple of points from Feb. So project a 51 say.
The 5 got his 56 in a maiden claimer. The winner, the 8 horse, earned the 49 in a 35K claimer for 3 yr olds.
Also, according to HTR, the 5 earned his figure against an 85 pace while the winner ran against a 97 pace figure. According to CJ's figures, the 5 ran vs. a 53 pace and the 8 against an 89!

(Yes, CJ have the longshot winner a 55 total fig vs. a 56 to the 3 but we're not arguing if Beyer is better than CJ only that the Beyers can still provide surprising value at times if you're paying attention.)




Sure I'm redboarding but you can see where the Beyers make this horse a viable contender and at 21-1 the price is right.

[cj]

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.

Isn't it possible you guys are doing the exact opposite you say Beyer is doing, viewing polytrack through only rose colored glasses?

Beyer is a bettor. I agree with him, betting on polytrack, at least the Keeneland version, sucked. There are enough yes men touting the benefits of polytrack. Some are even touting benefits that are imagined. I guess that, however, is OK by some.

[bobphilo]

Isn't it possible you guys are doing the exact opposite you say Beyer is doing, viewing polytrack through only rose colored glasses?

Beyer is a bettor. I agree with him, betting on polytrack, at least the Keeneland version, sucked. There are enough yes men touting the benefits of polytrack. Some are even touting benefits that are imagined. I guess that, however, is OK by some.

I for one, looked at the evidence with an open mind as both a handicapper and someone who is concerned with the safety of both horses and riders, and I like what I see on both counts.
The numbers show it has saved lives and it has helped rather than hurt my profits as well as many others who are able to adapt to the changes.
IMO, The weird results we saw at Keeneland were more due to the way jockeys rode in overeaction to a percieved bias, rather than any mysterious properties of the track itself.

What's most disturbing about Beyer's position is that he acknowledges that Poly is safer and still opposes it because he finds it less interesting.

Bob

[Greyfox]

Isn't it possible you guys are doing the exact opposite you say Beyer is doing, viewing polytrack through only rose colored glasses?

Beyer is a bettor. I agree with him, betting on polytrack, at least the Keeneland version, sucked. There are enough yes men touting the benefits of polytrack. Some are even touting benefits that are imagined. I guess that, however, is OK by some.

I didn't play Keeneland. But by all reports, from a betting stand point it was more unpredictable than other surfaces.
If Andy complains about Keeneland, it won't be due to his Beyer figures.
Beyer figures represent stamina.
In theory, the Beyer figs should do better there than on early speed favoring tracks such as Santa Anita.
But we don't know everything there is to know yet about handicapping on poly. Even runners that appeared "lame" on dirt, sprang to life on poly.
Does the surface favor a particular type of "hoof" like turf?
Will different training techniques be required for success on that surface?
Certainly at the current Hollywood meet early speed types are not doing so well, with deep closers at long odds stealing some of the races.
When we get more info on who will handle poly today vs. who won't, I think that Beyer type figs will still need to be given fair prominence.

[cj]

I think data is very limited as far as injuries go. Turfway 07 certainly had a lot of problems. There are plenty of safe dirt surfaces around, just as safe as polytrack by the numbers. If tracks choose to spend the money on polytrack, rather than properly maintaining dirt courses, that is their choice. It doesn't really prove that polytrack is safer than dirt, just cheaper to maintain safely.


As for betting, I don't bet until I find an edge. I'm betting WO and Hol, but won't touch Kee and now AP, which seems eerily similar to Kee. The Kee meets are so short it could be awhile before I dive in there. Jocks may have overreacted, but there is certainly a reason they did so. Speed was death. It didn't matter how slow you went early, some horses that went slower were going to blow by late.

[thelyingthief]

every statistic i've chanced upon concerning polytrack and its impact on injury rates is positive. significantly positive.

im playing a poly track in woodbine, and tracking hollywood's with a close eye: why would you think it difficult to handicap these surfaces? unless, that is, you have a bias you refuse to relinquish.

what's that analogy in Handicapping Magic? about the mice that find the cheese in tunnel four, and become so habituated to the pattern they will not retrain without significant effort?

and horseplayers refusing to RETRAIN whatsoever?

[Greyfox]

what's that analogy in Handicapping Magic? about the mice that find the cheese in tunnel four, and become so habituated to the pattern they will not retrain without significant effort?
and horseplayers refusing to RETRAIN whatsoever?

I like your analogy.
The interesting thing is mice will give up in 10 or 15 trials.
Humans? Maybe 150 trials.
Having said that, from what cj has said, he is finding patterns that give an edge at WO and Hol. Those patterns weren't consistent enough to offer an edge at Keeneland. So we don't really need to "retrain." We need to find an "edge"
before betting. That's smart.

[cj's dad]

I understand where you are coming from Bob, but I think you've overstated it just a bit. Beyer IS a player. He has pushed his share of money through the windows over his career and I believe is a very successful player, but probably only a decent handicapper -- now. I think his refusal to really embrace pace cost him some credibility along the way. But when he started out Beyer used speed figures in relation to trip handicapping and track bias very effectively.

But what REALLY sets Beyer apart from the crowd is his courage -- namely the courage of his convictions. This is a man who is not afraid to hammer it when he sees a real overlay and reap the profits. I would surmise from his books and other articles about him (anyone recall the profile in the NY Times magazine section a while back?) that he is a real home run hitter, not a grinder. So when he wins he really wins with the exotics.

You can cover a multitude of sins as a handicapper if you have the faith (and some ability at least) to swing for the fences -- no matter how many races you have lost recently -- on longshots on the way to making a killing on them.

That's what I admire about Beyer -- his courage and his stamina as a bettor.

That said I am truly pissed off at him for his ignorant and selfish stand against the Polytrack -- but that's another thread.


I have talked to Beyer on more than one occasion at Laurel Park. He is for those of you who have never met him a really nice guy. He does make a nice living selling his #'s, he loves playing the ponies, he has great discipline in his betting patterns, and will absolutely hammer a horse he likes.
His first big hit was in the now defunct double triple play at Md. trax which was a $3 bet. If you had the tri winner in race 3, you then received a "free" ticket for race 5 and had to pick a straight tri. I believe the pool had exceeded $1 mil when he loaded up in race 3 and had multiple tix going into race 5. He hit and as a result he was able to devote all of his time to capping and writing. And I believe that at that time he was using his #'s only for himself !!

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cj]

every statistic i've chanced upon concerning polytrack and its impact on injury rates is positive. significantly positive.

im playing a poly track in woodbine, and tracking hollywood's with a close eye: why would you think it difficult to handicap these surfaces? unless, that is, you have a bias you refuse to relinquish.

what's that analogy in Handicapping Magic? about the mice that find the cheese in tunnel four, and become so habituated to the pattern they will not retrain without significant effort?

and horseplayers refusing to RETRAIN whatsoever?

Who released these stats?

You must have missed the stats from TP this winter.

For example, how did the TP winter meet compare with other dirt tracks running that time of year with similar horse stock?

[DanG]

Isn't it possible you guys are doing the exact opposite you say Beyer is doing, viewing polytrack through only rose colored glasses?

Beyer is a bettor. I agree with him, betting on polytrack, at least the Keeneland version, sucked. There are enough yes men touting the benefits of polytrack. Some are even touting benefits that are imagined. I guess that, however, is OK by some.
If you interpret the early data on artificial surfaces as positive you are a “yes man” and wear “rose colored glasses”.

These statements frankly reek of arrogance, but we can agree to disagree on the early implications of the surface change. It’s still too early to jump to either conclusion, but to deny the early returns are anything but encouraging is not seeing the same races I am.

While I don’t read every thread on this board my experience has been more negative threads than positive ones concerning this surface. A question to all who have an early negative impression on the surface.

Putting we the bettor aside for a moment; Where does the owner, rider, the rider’s family and perhaps most importantly the health of the animal fit in the equation?

Keenelands training track and entry box were overflowing and not one single catastrophic injury occurred during their meet, morning or afternoon. Just a mention of this in between “it sucked” would get a much more reasonable response from me.

I hope these threads are revisited in years to come. It will be interesting to see the long term effects it had on the sport in general. I do know if it improves safety and the four 19yo college students at Keeneland are spared a leg being shattered in front of their eyes, I vote for the well being of the animal / rider / owner / gambler and ultimately the new racing fan every time.

[cj]

Polytrack may turn out to be the best thing since sliced bread, I don't know. The reason you see so many negative threads is that everything from the industry is on the other side, so people are looking for a balance. You aren't going to get it from the tracks, or sites like the Bloodhorse.

My issue is with things like this:

Putting we the bettor aside for a moment; Where does the owner, rider, the rider’s family and perhaps most importantly the health of the animal fit in the equation?

The bettor ALWAYS gets put aside. Why should I put them (me) aside? In the end, whether people like it or not, the success/failure of polytrack will depend on whether or not people like betting the races run on it, not whether horses break down more or less often. You can take that to the bank.

[ranchwest]

I'm still open on the artificial surface issue, but I can tell you that the wierd pace in the Bluegrass definitely affected how much I bet on the Ky Derby (meaning that I bet much less than I would have had the Bluegrass been on dirt).

[DanG]

Polytrack may turn out to be the best thing since sliced bread, I don't know. The reason you see so many negative threads is that everything from the industry is on the other side, so people are looking for a balance. You aren't going to get it from the tracks, or sites like the Bloodhorse.

My issue is with things like this:

The bettor ALWAYS gets put aside. Why should I put them (me) aside? In the end, whether people like it or not, the success/failure of polytrack will depend on whether or not people like betting the races run on it, not whether horses break down more or less often. You can take that to the bank.
My point is we the gamblers are not in a vacuum.

We both agree the gambler has a VERY limited voice if any, but I am well aware that without encouraging ownership, breeders and new fans we will have little to gamble on.

Taken as a whole handle / field size is sharply up on artificial surfaces so far. Your right, that’s the bottom line from our perspective, but it’s not the only issue involved and the industry is ultimately depends upon one another to succeed IMO.

[DanG]

I'm still open on the artificial surface issue, but I can tell you that the wierd pace in the Bluegrass definitely affected how much I bet on the Ky Derby (meaning that I bet much less than I would have had the Bluegrass been on dirt).
Ranch;

Out of curiosity…do you bet grass races?

[SMOO]

Taken as a whole handle / field size is sharply up on artificial surfaces so far. .

This should bea good thing. :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I'm still open on the artificial surface issue, but I can tell you that the wierd pace in the Bluegrass definitely affected how much I bet on the Ky Derby (meaning that I bet much less than I would have had the Bluegrass been on dirt).

I just considered the BG a workout and nobody got credited or debited for thier performances. My premise was performance did not count. Historically, I always considered the BG in the same light. I never had any respect or confidence in any pace line from KEE. To me, it's a nice place to visit, but it's not a real race track and what happens there, stays there.

[ranchwest]

Ranch;

Out of curiosity…do you bet grass races?

Yes, but I handicap the Ky Derby differently from any other race. I have always depended on the last prep being a revealing dirt race. With several potentially key contenders having run a race with that ridiculous pace, it told me nothing.

[Fastracehorse]

I didn't play Keeneland. But by all reports, from a betting stand point it was more unpredictable than other surfaces.
If Andy complains about Keeneland, it won't be due to his Beyer figures.
Beyer figures represent stamina.
In theory, the Beyer figs should do better there than on early speed favoring tracks such as Santa Anita.
But we don't know everything there is to know yet about handicapping on poly. Even runners that appeared "lame" on dirt, sprang to life on poly.
Does the surface favor a particular type of "hoof" like turf?
Will different training techniques be required for success on that surface?
Certainly at the current Hollywood meet early speed types are not doing so well, with deep closers at long odds stealing some of the races.
When we get more info on who will handle poly today vs. who won't, I think that Beyer type figs will still need to be given fair prominence.

I think the poly is going to take some getting used to.

At Kee is was late runners.

At Wdb it was just speed - now it's fair.

At Holly it's fair.

Also, I know the poly is supposedly a kinder surface - but does it take more out of horses or less.

We know turf horses love it.

What should we look for in the work tabs?? Do fast poly works mean as much?? It's going to take some time to get used to.

I hope NY and CD stay dirt. All majors in Cali will be poly next year.

fffastt

[JustRalph]

I fall in with CJ on this Polytrack issue. Dan makes some good points but if the races are full of 12 horse runners that cannot be handicapped with any consistency, I am going away. When enough money leaves the pools, where does that leave keeneland? A nice plastic track and 12 horses a race willing to run..........but 1/2 the money being bet per race?

I don't think they want that. I donated my share to the keeneland pools the first poly meet. After watching these jocks "wing it" for a couple of meets......they don't get my money anymore.

[bobphilo]

Yes, but I handicap the Ky Derby differently from any other race. I have always depended on the last prep being a revealing dirt race. With several potentially key contenders having run a race with that ridiculous pace, it told me nothing.

I think the crumbling of all those "historical trends" will call Derby specific handicapping into question.

As far as final times go, the race was worthless. Any time they crawl the first 6F in 1:16, the final time will be meaningless, regardless of the surface.

There were some things to be learned from the race however as the order of finish was a pretty good indication of the horses, with the exception of Dominican who seems to be a Poly specialist. The beaten margins would have to be magnified greatly since it really was like a 3 furlong race and the beaten margins treated accordingly.

It may have also shown that Street Sense may be more concerned with getting to the rail than with passing horses on the outside - though I'm going to have to analyze that further.

Bob

[BigJake]

How did this thread go from Beyer to poly (ahhhh yes, the Beyer thinks poly sucks transition)? Trying to pull this thread back a little. I think Beyer figs are great as long as you don't bet the horse with the best numbers. The public absolutely kills the odds. :jump:

Jake

[ranchwest]

I think the crumbling of all those "historical trends" will call Derby specific handicapping into question.

Not so fast. I used mostly historical trends and had the best day of anyone in the Road to the Derby contest. The difficulty in evaluating the Bluegrass was not a total roadblock, just a bit of an impediment.

[bobphilo]

Not so fast. I used mostly historical trends and had the best day of anyone in the Road to the Derby contest. The difficulty in evaluating the Bluegrass was not a total roadblock, just a bit of an impediment.

I hit both the Exacta and Trifecta by throwing out the historical trends, which are not the same as statistical eveidence. I quess there is more than one road that leads to Rome - or the Derby.

I'm definetly on the same road when it comes to evaluating the BG. As with most races, there were some lessons to be learned there.

Bob

[Robert Fischer]

Right now there is a lot of money to be made on certain polytrack races, and certain meets in particular.
Conversly there is an opposite reaction where an abnormality in the system which can be exploited, will cause problems with many methods that may "normally" be successful.

A simple example is a horse like Chatain who comes in as probably the best animal in a 9 furlong Ben Ali at Keeneland, but actually has no chance of finishing in the exacta and very very slim chance of getting third.
His traditional numbers say he has a big chance to win, but the surface thing and running style thing are what makes the system "abnormal".

Adapting and a few underlays isn't bad by itself.

The idea that I dislike however, is that eventually if the surface becomes prominant enough...
The trainers and jockeys will adapt.
They will run polytrack routes the way they were meant to be run;

Which is EVERY race like the Bluegrass.

Every route race is merely a gallop
out to 6 furlongs. The fast dirt routes disappear, and the brilliant dirt speed horses, the "Chatains" will all need to run sprints only, or try turf where their pedigree may dampen their ability potential.

[bobphilo]

The idea that I dislike however, is that eventually if the surface becomes prominant enough...
The trainers and jockeys will adapt.
They will run polytrack routes the way they were meant to be run;

Which is EVERY race like the Bluegrass.

Every route race is merely a gallop
out to 6 furlongs. The fast dirt routes disappear, and the brilliant dirt speed horses, the "Chatains" will all need to run sprints only, or try turf where their pedigree may dampen their ability potential.

There's little chance that will happen. The Bluegrass was an aberation in part due to jockeys over-reacting to a bias that didn't exist and later "magically disappeared".
Plus you had a race with 1 speed horse who slowed the speed as much as possible and a bunch of closers who let him do it. Look at the way races are run at other Poly tracks and you see a combination of race shapes varying from dirt to grass styles. In general you have horses winning on ability coming from front and rear, and middle.

Bob

[Kelso]

Also, according to HTR, the 5 earned his figure against an 85 pace while the winner ran against a 97 pace figure.


Andi,
By "against" do you mean the leaders in those earlier races turned in the pace figures you cite (85/97), or do you mean the #5 and #8 horses, respectively, ran those paces?

Thank you.

[cees with dees]

question? if beyer numbers really work, even as a tool for capping why didn't he keep them a secret and become a billioniare!


Now thats a question I'd like to hear the answer to.
Well Done!!!!!
beyer speed figures are absolutely useless. the great thing about them is, the higher numbers are 90% of the time, the favorites.
Because of the way that they derive these numbers is what makes them ridiculous.
And to have par numbers for certain classes is also ridiculous.
The example being, if a 10 claimer goes 6 in 1:10 and the same day the stake goes in 1:10, the stake will get the higher beyer number.
And not slightly higher. Much higher.
they adjust those numbers constantly also as they did with Sam I Am last year at Saratoga.
In his debut, he ran second on a concrete highway in fast time and received like a 98.
Went off 1/5 in second start and was off the board and when no horse returned to win out of that race, the debut, they adjusted his number from a 98 to an 82 and there was an article in the form the size of a postage stamp explaining it.
If you pay attention and put any value to Beyer numbers, I think you're making a huge mistake.

[andicap]

Andi,
By "against" do you mean the leaders in those earlier races turned in the pace figures you cite (85/97), or do you mean the #5 and #8 horses, respectively, ran those paces?

Thank you.

I mean they ran AGAINST those paces. That's one of the biggest factors I look for in handicapping early, early pressers and pressers. The public still underbets horses who finished poorly after running against unrealistic paces. You've got to throw those races out. Conversely when closers run in very slow (or more accurately "negative pace") races, those are throw outs too. By "negative pace," I am talking about the relative energy expenditure in the first part of the races vs. the final part -- rather than the time itself.

[Tom]

I see where a couple of copies of Beyer on Speed could do some good.;)

[cj]

Now thats a question I'd like to hear the answer to.
Well Done!!!!!
beyer speed figures are absolutely useless. the great thing about them is, the higher numbers are 90% of the time, the favorites.
Because of the way that they derive these numbers is what makes them ridiculous.
And to have par numbers for certain classes is also ridiculous.
The example being, if a 10 claimer goes 6 in 1:10 and the same day the stake goes in 1:10, the stake will get the higher beyer number.
And not slightly higher. Much higher.
they adjust those numbers constantly also as they did with Sam I Am last year at Saratoga.
In his debut, he ran second on a concrete highway in fast time and received like a 98.
Went off 1/5 in second start and was off the board and when no horse returned to win out of that race, the debut, they adjusted his number from a 98 to an 82 and there was an article in the form the size of a postage stamp explaining it.
If you pay attention and put any value to Beyer numbers, I think you're making a huge mistake.

Your ramblings show you really don't know much about Beyer speed figures. I don't think anyone claims the figures alone will make a profit.

Your assertion that the same time will receive different figures does happen, but not nearly as often as most people would like to believe. Most times, races from the same day with the same final time get the same figure, regardless of class.

There is little doubt the figure you mention at Saratoga was wrong. However, it was a race for lightly raced horses and 1st time starters. It was run at a rarely run distance and the only race of the day at the distance. Which figure makers got that race right initially, if I may ask?

As for why he sold the figures, anyone could surmise why he did that. After writing his book, many people started making numbers. Whether his were published or not, speed figures were losing value at the windows, at least as far as simply betting the top last out figure. Why not cash in when he could? How many hours would he have to spend betting his figures profitably to match what he probably receives from DRF? He would have been a fool not to sell them.

[Robert Fischer]

There's little chance that will happen. The Bluegrass was an aberation in part due to jockeys over-reacting to a bias that didn't exist and later "magically disappeared".
Plus you had a race with 1 speed horse who slowed the speed as much as possible and a bunch of closers who let him do it. Look at the way races are run at other Poly tracks and you see a combination of race shapes varying from dirt to grass styles. In general you have horses winning on ability coming from front and rear, and middle.

Bob

If/when the polytrack surface ever becomes the primary surface... I believe we will see the jockeys and trainers continue to strive for an optimal pace. Trial and error. In most cases this means a slower set-up than we are used to on dirt.

[cj]

If/when the polytrack surface ever becomes the primary surface... I believe we will see the jockeys and trainers continue to strive for an optimal pace. Trial and error. In most cases this means a slower set-up than we are used to on dirt.

This is absolutely true, even one more "dirt like" surfaces such as those at WO and Hol.

[Robert Fischer]

Positive: If you make a power rating for a horse go ahead and make a seperate rating where you include the BSF as a factor to a modest degree.


Negative:
One of the most profitable methods to use Beyers is to find an underlay horse(false favorite) with a group of negative factors which are not overlayed by the public (hey I skipped a few steps), AND also has a big BSF. Build your exotics around the other horses.

[Greyfox]

beyer speed figures are absolutely useless.

Useless to you maybe. Not to me.

[singunner]

Is there nobody out there making speed figures that are better than Beyer? The quoted results of his top rated horse in a race winning about 33% of the time doesn't seem that impressive to me.

[ranchwest]

Is there nobody out there making speed figures that are better than Beyer? The quoted results of his top rated horse in a race winning about 33% of the time doesn't seem that impressive to me.

That's because the horses can't read the ratings.

I'm not saying Beyer is necessarily the best. It is just that speed figures can only reveal so much. If speed figures were all there was to handicapping, everyone would have all the winners.

[cees with dees]

Until there is a speed figure that incorporates loss of ground, trainer change, and about 15 other very important variables, the most being calks on or off, they are for me, completely irrelevant.

The bottom line is, everyone is going to have their winners, and unfortunately, losers as well. To increase the former and decrease the latter is the objective and I've found with any kind of speed figures, the faster numbers are generally the shortest prices and usually not the way to go because no two races setups are the same. Enter in people using words like bounce, and not enough time to recover.

If anyone thinks a horse needs more than 7 days to completely recover from any race, barring one where he suffered an injury, I think they're mistaken.
Trainers run back horses sometimes in two days and Richard Dutrow has a remarkable record when he does so. As did Oscar Barrera back in the good old days. Most people surmise drugs. And they may be right. And likely are correct to an extent. But there would have to be some widespread conspiracy for everyone to be involved.
Back in the 90's I had the opportunity to spend some time with Ernie Dahman who was the leading owner in Ny. Or close to it for a long time.
In his private room at hauppauge otb he had a wall full of about 60 pictures of winning photos.
Not such a big deal to have 60 winners but to have them all be different animals was most impressive and the subject of drugs or juice never came up.
Speed and 4 wheel drive did though. Alot.
Oh well. Ranting again. Just such a lousy card in NY not much else to do.
Later.
Ben

[bobphilo]

Is there nobody out there making speed figures that are better than Beyer? The quoted results of his top rated horse in a race winning about 33% of the time doesn't seem that impressive to me.

As has been repeadly been posted. The figures are not supposed to be used as the only handicapping factor. The fact that they can match the win percentage of favorites, with zero other handicapping factors involved, is very impressive.

Bob

[cees with dees]

By the way, my trainer thinks I'm absolutely dead wrong about recovery time so who knows??
If everyone had the same opinions and were right, every winner would be 1/9 and nobody would ever have to work, right??
And, the person who said beyer would have been nuts not to sell his numbers is absolutely correct. Especially considering Andy Beyer, from a gambling standpoint, and he'd be the first to admit it, is a losing player.
Have a great day!!!

[Tom]

Is there nobody out there making speed figures that are better than Beyer? The quoted results of his top rated horse in a race winning about 33% of the time doesn't seem that impressive to me.

It's not that high at most tracks. To me, it is still impressive at around 25%.
We are talking just a number that tell you how fast a horse ran in a race. Beyer can't make a number to do better than reality. And reality, the fastest horse last week in not always the fastest horse this week.
Forget Beyers for a minute, and consider how often a horse repeats a win. Surely not 33% of the time.

[Tom]

Until there is a speed figure that incorporates loss of ground, trainer change, and about 15 other very important variables, the most being calks on or off, they are for me, completely irrelevant.

Ben

Then it would not be a speed figure, it would be a performance figure or some such.

And, horses coming back in 2-10 days, as a group, are not good bets.
And how in the world do you know Andy is a losing player?:confused:

[cees with dees]

Those are his words not mine. And on a public broadcast like the Breeders Cup every year, I've never even seen him come close.
He is a brilliant man. Most Harvard graduates are. And losing players are the norm in this game. I unfortunately am still one myself. But I keep an open mind and keep learning and the losses are definitely less. Thats for sure and the last 2 of three years I actually showed a profit. And 2 years ago, a good one. Mostly because of a $76,000 + pick 4 at Santa Anita headed by my now favorite horse, Good Cop Bad Cop. How appropriate. Some will understand that one.
Brad Thomas is the most knowledgable person this sport has ever seen and he holds a job at Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands flat meet. Thats how hard it is to win and believe me, there is no one on this planet that has a better knowledge or head for this game than Brad Thomas. Also just an opinion but besides Ernie, he's the only guy when talking about racing or a race that I give 100% attention.
If you get a chance, listen to him run down any race at Monmouth. He's never without a juicy longshot, gives a complete an accurate analysis of every horse and when he picks a favorite, just go to the window.
Really an amazing guy.

[singunner]

As has been repeadly been posted. The figures are not supposed to be used as the only handicapping factor. The fact that they can match the win percentage of favorites, with zero other handicapping factors involved, is very impressive.

Bob
The program I developed seems to do just as well or better with only one variable looked at. Only, mine doesn't give a number that sticks with a horse. I create a percentage probability for each horse in the race, so it's a little different I guess. But overall, my first place picks win 33% of the time. Of course, if you bet on all of them for 2006, you would have gotten a 90.2 percent return across your 50,000 races, which would be a hard pill to swallow.

What's the return if you bet on every top Beyer number for 2006? And about what percent of races have all horses running with a Beyer number attached to them?

[bobphilo]

The program I developed seems to do just as well or better with only one variable looked at. Only, mine doesn't give a number that sticks with a horse. I create a percentage probability for each horse in the race, so it's a little different I guess. But overall, my first place picks win 33% of the time. Of course, if you bet on all of them for 2006, you would have gotten a 90.2 percent return across your 50,000 races, which would be a hard pill to swallow.

What's the return if you bet on every top Beyer number for 2006? And about what percent of races have all horses running with a Beyer number attached to them?

Apples and oranges. Whatever variable or variables you are using, you are looking at the win % of your final selections by your system. The Beyer figures are not a system and not supposed to represent winning probabilty, but just measures of a horses speed on a given past date, from which a method can be derived. That part is done by the handicapper.
That winning percentage should be considerably higher than just looking at the highest speed figure. That's what you should be comparing your win % to.
Another fair comparison would be to look at the win % based soley on the value of your one variable before whatever your program does to convert it to winning probablity. Otherwise you're comparing what is only one part of a selection method using Beyers with your final selection.
If are saying that you know of one stand-alone variable that without handicapping has a higher predictive value than speed figures, I would love to know what it is.

Bob

[cnollfan]

[QUOTE=JustRalph] If the races are full of 12 horse runners that cannot be handicapped with any consistency, I am going away. When enough money leaves the pools, where does that leave keeneland? A nice plastic track and 12 horses a race willing to run..........but 1/2 the money being bet per race? [QUOTE]

If Keeneland continues to offer lots of 12 horse fields that are not easy to handicap, they are not going to have any problem with their handle, even if all the whales on this board don't play.

Blue Grass: What do you think would have happened if Teuflesberg went 1:14 and change and opened up 10 lengths on the field?

[singunner]

Bob,

That was great and concise. Very intuitive. These "speed figures" almost feel like handicapping backwards. I'd never considered looking at it like that. I think I could create a sort of national ranking of all horses running... Or I could apply some rating to a horse's performance for a particular race... But I still don't know if I'd get "apples to apples" out of that.

I wonder what would happen if I substituted in Beyer's number as my variable. Are they in the simple text charts from DRF.com? If so, how far back in time do they go?

Thanks for clarifying a bit for me, Bob.

-Sin

[PaceAdvantage]

Those are his words not mine.

Uttered where and when?

[bobphilo]

Bob,

That was great and concise. Very intuitive. These "speed figures" almost feel like handicapping backwards. I'd never considered looking at it like that. I think I could create a sort of national ranking of all horses running... Or I could apply some rating to a horse's performance for a particular race... But I still don't know if I'd get "apples to apples" out of that.

I wonder what would happen if I substituted in Beyer's number as my variable. Are they in the simple text charts from DRF.com? If so, how far back in time do they go?

Thanks for clarifying a bit for me, Bob.

-Sin

Sin,

I'm glad we're finally on the same page. I can't tell whether substituting Beyers for your variable would work because I don't know what your variable is. The only why to know would be to test it out.
I recommend you read "Beyer on Speed" (as Tom suggested) to get an idea of just what the Beyers represent and how they can be used. The Beyers are included in the DRF PP's. The DRF website also has an explanation of the Beyers and their use as well, under fan education.
BTW, if it's not giving away a professional secret, what is the variable you've been using in your system?

Good luck.

Bob

[DanG]

Especially considering Andy Beyer, from a gambling standpoint, and he'd be the first to admit it, is a losing player.Those are his words not mine. And on a public broadcast like the Breeders Cup every year, I've never even seen him come close.
C & D…

You bring up two interesting points.

1) Beyer is a “losing” player overall…

Is this based upon first hand knowledge? You’ve been around the game much too long to judge someone off BC and TC picks…correct?

Brad Thomas is the most knowledgable person this sport has ever seen and he holds a job at Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands flat meet. Thats how hard it is to win and believe me, there is no one on this planet that has a better knowledge or head for this game than Brad Thomas.
2) Even Brad Thomas holds a “job" with Jersey racing as brilliant as he is.

1st…I couldn’t agree more concerning Brad. I met him at the Meadowlands some years back and within 5 minutes of our conversation I was floored by his intellect. Just a brilliant man in every way.

I am curious though, what bearing does holding “any” job has on his ability to play racing full time and / or his potential profits? To me, it’s a great gig for a pro player to be paid to follow racing closely. I think we can agree; successful gambling on any level isn’t always mutually exclusive from another line of work.

Take care and best of luck at Belmont.

[singunner]

Sin,

I'm glad we're finally on the same page. I can't tell whether substituting Beyers for your variable would work because I don't know what your variable is. The only why to know would be to test it out.
I recommend you read "Beyer on Speed" (as Tom suggested) to get an idea of just what the Beyers represent and how they can be used. The Beyers are included in the DRF PP's. The DRF website also has an explanation of the Beyers and their use as well, under fan education.
BTW, if it's not giving away a professional secret, what is the variable you've been using in your system?

Good luck.

Bob

Bob,

I'll definitely pick up a copy of the book. I wonder if anyone would know a bookstore in Lexington or Versailles that might carry it. It's probably a requirement in this part of Kentucky to carry it if you own a bookstore.

As for the variable I'm using, it's not that I'm so protective of it, and I'm certainly not a professional, but most of the fun of making this program for me has been the idea that I'm doing something nobody has thought of (or been able to do) yet. If I get my theoretical ROI a little higher than 96%, I'll post my picks so I can get some feedback on whether I've made something worthwhile or not. If this board can't make something useful out of my numbers, I doubt it can be done. Thanks again.

-Sin

[Fastracehorse]

Is there nobody out there making speed figures that are better than Beyer? The quoted results of his top rated horse in a race winning about 33% of the time doesn't seem that impressive to me.

What the Beyer measures is: how long it takes the horse to go from start to finish.

What if the horse had a wide trip?? - the Beyer doesn't measure this directly.

What if the horse duelled furiously and then finished poorly ( all horses need to rate to some extent )??

How do U measure a sprinter's ability to route??

Or a horse's ability to turf??

Poor starts and rough trips are significant factors that aren't measured directly by the Beyer.

Also, young horses improve - the Beyer doesn't project improvement. Nevermind recent form reversals due to health improvements and other factors.

Don't forget projected regressions in form.

My point being that adjusted speed figures are a valueable tool - any horse player who wants to should learn to develop their own adjusted figs.

fffastt

[bobphilo]

My point being that adjusted speed figures are a valueable tool - any horse player who wants to should learn to develop their own adjusted figs.

fffastt

Right. The Beyers are a good starting point. I've found that adjusting for ground loss improves their accuracy. Other factors, like a hot pace and rough trips do affect the figures but their affects cannot be quantified as precisely. I deal with these like Timeform does by putting a + sign next to the figure indicating it's better than it looks.

Bob