Jeff P
05-11-2007, 04:12 PM
Before diving in I want to preempt anyone who would accuse me of redboarding. I posted my (pre-race) thoughts on the 2007 KY Derby... both in the 2007 KY Derby Software Picks thread of the PA Handicapping Software forum and on my own message board. This can be verified at:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36173
http://www.jcapper.ajthau.com/index.php?showtopic=852
Moving on...
My 07 Derby pick was HARD SPUN. I had him as a single. The algorithms I rely on liked him enough to make him 5/2 in a 20 horse field. Needless to say I liked him a lot.
Even though HARD SPUN ran a great race while being overlooked by the public (You really can't ask for much more than that from your selections can you?) he was beaten by another horse who ran an even better race. It happens. Even so I was able to catch the 7/8 exacta multiple times. It paid $101.80 for $2.00 - and turned a race where my selection was solidly beaten into a pretty nice payday.
From the postings in the 2007 Ky Derby Software Picks thread it's obvious to me that a lot of people did a good job of handicapping the race beforehand and getting to the right contenders. IMHO, after you've been playing for a while, getting to the contenders in a race becomes (almost) an automatic given.
But in talking to many people afterwards I've come to realize one thing. Very few are actually able to connect the dots and consistently get paid for their efforts. And after years of talking to other players, I'm starting to realize that this is a recurring theme.
Is ticket structure that hard to get right in the heat of the moment? If so, why?
Do strategies exist for basic ticket structure that players can (or should) consistently rely on? If so, what are they?
Some say that ticket structure is more art than science. I have some very solid theories on ticket structure of my own which I'll be happy to share. But I'm curious about the thought process of other players when it comes to connecting the dots.
Comments or input would be appreciated.
-jp
.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36173
http://www.jcapper.ajthau.com/index.php?showtopic=852
Moving on...
My 07 Derby pick was HARD SPUN. I had him as a single. The algorithms I rely on liked him enough to make him 5/2 in a 20 horse field. Needless to say I liked him a lot.
Even though HARD SPUN ran a great race while being overlooked by the public (You really can't ask for much more than that from your selections can you?) he was beaten by another horse who ran an even better race. It happens. Even so I was able to catch the 7/8 exacta multiple times. It paid $101.80 for $2.00 - and turned a race where my selection was solidly beaten into a pretty nice payday.
From the postings in the 2007 Ky Derby Software Picks thread it's obvious to me that a lot of people did a good job of handicapping the race beforehand and getting to the right contenders. IMHO, after you've been playing for a while, getting to the contenders in a race becomes (almost) an automatic given.
But in talking to many people afterwards I've come to realize one thing. Very few are actually able to connect the dots and consistently get paid for their efforts. And after years of talking to other players, I'm starting to realize that this is a recurring theme.
Is ticket structure that hard to get right in the heat of the moment? If so, why?
Do strategies exist for basic ticket structure that players can (or should) consistently rely on? If so, what are they?
Some say that ticket structure is more art than science. I have some very solid theories on ticket structure of my own which I'll be happy to share. But I'm curious about the thought process of other players when it comes to connecting the dots.
Comments or input would be appreciated.
-jp
.