Lone Star Derby

[john del riccio]

The ratings for this 3yo stake are available for free by clicking the link below.
It looks like an interesting race.

John

http://www.woodsideassociates.com/freebie.pdf

[john del riccio]

Looking at this race makes me think that REATA'S ROCKET is going to hook up with SLEW'S TIZZY and throw a local horse who is a natural sprinter (Mr. Nightlinger), and it has the makings of an honest pace. Slews Tizzy set soft fraction sin the Lexington and still hasn't run a good race around two turns on a conventional dirt track. REATA's ROCKET shows a quick 5f breeze over the LS surface and his only two turn race was over the TP Polytrack vs. DOMINICAN. The interesting thing about REATA's ROCKET is that Maragh makes the trip in liu of MTH's opening day to rider this colt (maybe they are thinking Haskell down the road ?) He will need to show more stamina for that to happen.

I had REPORTING FOR DUTY in the exacta vs. COWTOWN CAT in the ILL Derby and I thought he did well to overcome the dawldling pace to run second. He looked like he was going to make it interesting in the stretch but he appeared to have gotten knocked off stride somewhat when he was commencing his rally (I will defer to FATs on that one). His rail position will allow him to sit the trip.

Behind RFD, there are a three interesting horses.

TAKEDOWN (another Asmussen colt), MOYERS POND, and HARROW LAND (both from Reinstedlers barn). TAKEDOWN was smoked by FOURTY GRAMS at Sunland but came right back with a strong race at OP. MOYERS POND
ran a deceptively strong rce last out but has been off 7 weeks with just one workout and that isn't good. HARROW LAND may have been best vs. TAKEDOWN last out as he had no place to go for over a 1/4 mile; he is picking up weight but I like that Razo was named.

Good Luck.

JOhn

[bobphilo]

I like Slew's Tizzy here. After losing his rider in the Risen Star, he flashed a much improved pace figure in the La Derby before understandably tiring. He then put it all together in his Lexington win with a big figure for this field. I also like Reporting For Duty coming off his good 2nd in the Ill Derby with a figure that puts him just below ST.

After these 2 it should be close for the minor awards between Forty Grams, Reata's Rocket, Slew by Slew and Takedown.

Bob

[john del riccio]

I like Slew's Tizzy here. After losing his rider in the Risen Star, he flashed a much improved pace figure in the La Derby before understandably tiring. He then put it all together in his Lexington win with a big figure for this field. I also like Reporting For Duty coming off his good 2nd in the Ill Derby with a figure that puts him just below ST.

After these 2 it should be close for the minor awards between Forty Grams, Reata's Rocket, Slew by Slew and Takedown.

Bob

bob,

i have a pretty firm, but not absolute, stance. i wont take a SHORT price on a horse coming out of a good race over poly if he/she is now racing on dirt. slews tizzy falls into that category. i think the pace has the potential to get
hot here making slews tizzy even more vulnerable.

good luck,
john

[bobphilo]

bob,

i have a pretty firm, but not absolute, stance. i wont take a SHORT price on a horse coming out of a good race over poly if he/she is now racing on dirt. slews tizzy falls into that category. i think the pace has the potential to get
hot here making slews tizzy even more vulnerable.

good luck,
john

I wasn't happy with the late money hammering ST down to 5-2 but he still looked very solid to me (due in part to your figures) and he rewarded me for my confidence. :)
I was a little concerned with the hot early pace but he rated off it just enough and posted a nice victory.

Bob

[Maji]

My choices (based on my homegrown system) were 2-5-3 played as a boxed exacta. It paid a nice dividend.

Just like KY Derby, the boxed trifecta could have also been profitable, but that is hindsight.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=383092#post383092

[JustRalph]

That track looked like shit. Compare that with Churchill last week?

I think that track changed the whole complexion of the event.

[john del riccio]

That track looked like shit. Compare that with Churchill last week?

I think that track changed the whole complexion of the event.

ralph,

i didn't know it was an off track until the post parade....i took it easy but its worth taking note that tizzy's fondness for poly transfered to the slop.

Reporting for Duty got a horrible trip, stopped at least 3 times.

John

[john del riccio]

I wasn't happy with the late money hammering ST down to 5-2 but he still looked very solid to me (due in part to your figures) and he rewarded me for my confidence. :)
I was a little concerned with the hot early pace but he rated off it just enough and posted a nice victory.

Bob

bob,

yes, he actually looked comfortable rating. looks like removing the blinks certainly helped this horse alot.

john

[Tom]

The two previous races looked like late clsoers were doing well.
I wonder if the mud/possible late bias made it play more to poly styles?
Someone should do a study as to where and what surfaces poly winners from the specific tracks go to and how they do.
I could, but it would be som much easier if someone did it for me!:rolleyes:

[bobphilo]

ralph,

i didn't know it was an off track until the post parade....i took it easy but its worth taking note that tizzy's fondness for poly transfered to the slop.

Reporting for Duty got a horrible trip, stopped at least 3 times.

John

Right, John. Reporting for Duty got pinched, bumped or blocked every time he tried to make a move. Finally punched his way semi-clear too late and closed well.
I paid special attention to his trip since I had him in the Exacta under Slew's Tizzy, but looking at the chart it looks like most of the closers got similar horror trips, which took away whatever advantage they had from the hot early pace.

Bob

[john del riccio]

The two previous races looked like late clsoers were doing well.
I wonder if the mud/possible late bias made it play more to poly styles?
Someone should do a study as to where and what surfaces poly winners from the specific tracks go to and how they do.
I could, but it would be som much easier if someone did it for me!:rolleyes:

tom,

i have always found that a larger population of turf horses appreciate the slop than you'd think and i am curious now if this will hold for polytrack.....

if you do the study, we'll all send ou a bottle of good scotch !:jump:

john

[Robert Fischer]

Wasn't the easiest race in the world to handicap. Mr Nightlinger looked like a live longshot. Slews Tizzy is a nice looking horse, but he really hadn't established himself coming in. Slews Tizzy was a win candidate but could also run out of the money. The surface was off. Reporting For Duty was about the most honest form coming in and that just isn't that great of a horse. Says something about the level of competition in that race. Forty Grams was on my toss list after he was abused by Gomez in the stretch in Lexington(so this time the jockey loses the whip and he finishes well :D ).