How to handle this situation

[timtam]

Currently I am in first place in a cumulative handicapping contest with

the winner receiving $1000 to bet in the Belmont. The contest goes like this

7 points for 1st place in the Preakness 3 points for second.

I am 4 points in front of the second candidate with the 3rd placer is 10 points

behind. I have 2nd place wrapped up so I am guaranteed the $500 second

place prize. I've been running this by guys at the OTB on how to handle

this because 2nd place doesn't do me any good if the 2nd place guy picks

the winner but if I get no points he could pass me. He seems to ignore

Street Sense because before the derby the points were Mo- 58 TT- 55

now its TT- 62 Mo-58 all others 52 etc.

The consensus is play Street Sense because if he doesn't win he should

get 2nd thus your in a tie. I'm going to find out today what is the criteria

for breaking a tie because if its $500 apiece thats where I am now. Do I take

another horse hoping its the same one he plays or just play the race like

we already in a tie ? He couldn't have played Hard Spun because he

didn't get any points and he passed me the week Dominican won so he had

that horse. One guy said he's got to watch the 3rd place guys ( 3 of them

are tied) because he could lose 2nd he has 58 with 3 tied at 52.

Anyway thats where I stand at 9 am on Friday 5/11/07. Any help?

[cj]

You can only worry about which horse you select. Do you really want to take a stab with someone other than street sense and lose outright if he wins? I would go with the odds and make the other guy win with a price horse.

[ryesteve]

I wouldn't try to be guessing his Preakness pick based on who he picked in the Derby. That doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Just go with the horse you think is the most likely winner. Anything else is just overcomplicating the situation.

[john del riccio]

Dance with the girl you brought; do what got you there.

John

[Premier Turf Club]

I've played a lot of on-line contests, both alone and as part of the team. Strategy dictates that if you are in the lead going into the last event you play whoever you think is the most likely winner and ignore what anyone else is going to do.

Me personally, I concede that Street Sense is the most likely winner, but maybe just barely. I've got a sneaking suspicion he's much better at CD than he is on other surfaces. Now that's just a hunch but people I trust that have seen his action up close tell me that's not necessarily a crazy thought.

Good luck in the contest.

[bobphilo]

Some jockeys make the mistake of riding the other guys horse instead of concentrating on their own. Don't try to pick the other guys winners, just go with your own best pick.
Good luck.
Bob

[ranchwest]

I agree with the others. As long as you keep scoring, you keep the pressure on. Pick your own horse and make the others sweat.

[timtam]

I just came back from the OTB and found out that in case of a tie

my horse coming in second and his winning he would win the tiebreaker

because they start with the Preakness and work backward to who has the

most current winner. So second place doesn't help me one bit if he

picks the winning horse. Anyway thanks for the kind words as I will probably

will ponder this for awhile.

[JPinMaryland]

Can you do an ALL/King of the Roxy/All play? That would be sweet.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I will probably will ponder this for awhile.
.....and while you ponder, you should at least consider CHELOKEE.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[timtam]

I'm going to be able to play either $500 or $1000 (whichever I win) on

all superfectas if I want to swing for the fences.

[timtam]

All day long I pondered the question the 4 or the 8 the 4 or the 8

I picked the 8 finished in a first place tie and lost the tiebreaker

so now I have ( only) $500 to wager on the Belmont. :( :( :(