Sat. 05-12-07 Lone Star Derby (G3)

[joeyreb]

They drew the field for the Lone Star Derby today, deep field with no real marque names, but drew some good horses.

Lone Star Derby (G3)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

Prg. #PPHorseJockeyTrainerWt.Claim $Equip.Med.ML1 1Reporting for DutyEmigh C AAsmussen Steven M122L3-12 2Forty GramsQuinonez L SAsmussen Steven M122L4-13 3Moyer's PondShepherd JReinstedler A L122L15-14 4TakedownMurphy B GAsmussen Steven M122L8-15 5Slew's TizzyAlbarado R JFox Gregory122L5-26 6Mr. NightlingerZimmerman RCalhoun W. B122L20-17 7Reata's RocketMaragh ROrseno Joseph122L8-18 8Harrow LandRazo E JrReinstedler A L122L6-19 9TaksentHamilton QWebb Eddie122FTL30-110 10Slew by SlewPettinger D RVon Hemel Donnie K122L20-1


Possible sleeper in here is Mr. Nightlinger, look at his alw win last time out if you have access to replays.... FYI there was an off track that day which was a speed killer

Joe
http://www.inside-the-paddock.com/ (http://www.inside-the-paddock.com/)

[joeyreb]

Don't know what happen there

Saturday's Lone Star Derby G-III



PP..Horse...................Jockey......Trainer... .......ML
1...Reporting for Duty...Emigh C A...Asmussen.....3-1
2...Forty Grams...........Quinonez....Asmussen.....4-1
3...Moyer's Pond..........Shepherd J..Reinstedler..15-1
4...Takedown..............Murphy B G..Asmussen.....8-1
5...Slew's Tizzy............Albarado R J..Fox...........5-2
6...Mr. Nightlinger........Zimmerman...Calhoun....20-1
7...Reata's Rocket........Maragh R.....Orseno........8-1
8...Harrow Land..........Razo E Jr......Reinstedler...6-1
9...Taksent.................Hamilton Q...Webb........30-1
10..Slew by Slew.......Pettinger D R..Von Hemel..20-1


Joe
http://inside-the-paddock.com (http://inside-the-paddock.com/)

[Kelso]

Don't know what happen there
Saturday's Lone Star Derby G-III


7...Reata's Rocket........Maragh R Orseno........8-1


I know demonstrably little little about handicapping racehorses ... but I have made a couple bucks betting Rajiv Maragh on competitive longshots.

[joeyreb]

I think it's interesting that Bret Calhoun entered Mr. Nightlinger and not Lone Star's @ 2006 2 yr old champ, Be a Resident or Austin Lights in here.

He chose entered them both in Colts version of Texas Stallion $125 stakes, Race 9 on today's card.


Mr. Nightlinger won easier than it looks in the PP's on a day where the track was a speed killer..

[joeyreb]

But with all the speed in here, I think it set up well for Reporting for Duty.

This year's LS Derby is deeper and more even than in years past...

I'm really suprized that Baffert didn't fly in Air Commander for this one.

[PaceAdvantage]

He joeyreb, what happened to your font size?

[Maji]

My spreadsheet has chosen 2-5-3 to be played as an Exacta Box for the Lone Star Derby.

For race number 9, which is the Texas Stallion Stakes, it has chosen 5-1-4 to be boxed in an Exacta.

Good luck.

[joeyreb]

Deep fields in all of 3 yr old Stakes today at LSP

The players I see in these races

Race 8th (Fillies)
1 Stage Stop
2 Real Soup
4 Lilly Ladue (might get a price here), she was blocked and had check hard in the stretch which makes her last race look worst than it really was, that 77 Beyer she ran a race back most likely wins here.

Race 9th
Deep field, you make good cases for at least 6 horses here

5 - Power Surge - the one to beat here
11 - I Spy Wolfie
12 - Be A Resident - the 2 yr old Champ is Back, stretching out, Blinkers ON
If any you watched 2 yr old series of this Stakes series in 2006, this colt has a ton grit and heart... Most though was either Calhoun's Austin Lights or Asmussen's Datrick to win.... Be A Resident beat them both.

Race 10th
1 - Reporting for Duty - with all the speed and pace in here, I think sets the table for me

4 - Takedown - also sets him up well, I think Reporting for Duty is more classy and slighty better

5 - Slew Tizzy - very good horse, but will have contend on the lead with Reata's Rocket, Mr Nightlinger,Taksent

[headhawg]

I also like Reporting for Duty in the LS Derby. Has good figs and the race sets up for him. A play @2-1 for me.

Am also liking the 2 so maybe an Ex box but will have to check the prices.

[cj]

I am surprised Forty Grams hasn't been mentioned. He only beat a horse, with a very similar trip, named Hard Spun in the Southwest.

I realize many see his defeat at Sunland Park as a big negative. The two who beat him that day have yet to run back, but are both very promising horses. A horse he beat by 15 lengths that day, Takedown, returned to win the Northern Spur at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby day.

[Blackgold]

I'm gonna put in some combos keying the 8 and 2.

Good luck all!

[headhawg]

I am surprised Forty Grams hasn't been mentioned.I did mention it as my other horse here. It has the best CJs, but I was worried that he might get caught up in the early pace too much. That's why I was looking to box the 1 and 2. And price is going to make my betting decision for me.

[the_fat_man]

Guided by the FATCHART

was gonna go with Reporting for Duty


then,

I watched the replay and noticed he was on the inside the entire race.

PASS

[Maji]

My spreadsheet has chosen 2-5-3 to be played as an Exacta Box for the Lone Star Derby.

For race number 9, which is the Texas Stallion Stakes, it has chosen 5-1-4 to be boxed in an Exacta.

Good luck.

The Derby Box paid $100.20 for a $12 investment. The final results were 5-3-2&6, where the show was dead heat.

The TX Stakes results were 4-8-5, so it was a loss. The fly in the ointment was 8.

I don't even know the name of the horses except for #5 in the LS Derby. I just let the numbers tell me what to do. :)

[Kelso]

The Derby Box paid $100.20 for a $12 investment.

<snip>

I just let the numbers tell me what to do.


Congratulations, Maj. Nice score. Is your spreadsheet home grown, or commercial?

[Buddha]

I am surprised Forty Grams hasn't been mentioned.

Talk about a bad trip. The charts short comments are "brutal trip, lost whip" Pretty bad when that is going to be put in the comment line the next time the horse runs. Who wants to guess if the horse will be +/- even money next out :)

[Maji]

Congratulations, Maj. Nice score. Is your spreadsheet home grown, or commercial?

Thank you for the kind words.

It is home grown.