Preakness doings

[john del riccio]

Flying First Class hasn't run a 2 turn race as nicely as he has around one turn but the pace figur ehe earned in the Serby Trial certainly makes it plausible that he and HARD SPUN could hook up on the front end.

JOhn
================



Lukas works two Preakness possibles

By MARTY McGEE
http://www.drf.com/images/flyingfirst_200x250_051007.jpgJeff Coady/Coady PhotographyFlying First Class will be aiming high, trying the Preakness 1 3/16 miles.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Last Saturday, trainer D. Wayne Lukas missed out on running a horse in the Kentucky Derby for just the fourth time since 1981. But when the second leg of the Triple Crown is run May 19 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Lukas plans to be represented by at least one starter, if not two.

Lukas, a five-time winner of the Preakness, will be represented by either or both of two horses coming off sharp races: Flying First Class, the winner of the April 28 Derby Trial at Churchill Downs, and Starbase, runner-up in the April 21 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Article Continued @ http://www.drf.com/news/article/84716.html

[bobphilo]

Flying First Class hasn't run a 2 turn race as nicely as he has around one turn but the pace figur ehe earned in the Serby Trial certainly makes it plausible that he and HARD SPUN could hook up on the front end.

JOhn


Good point, John. If Hard Spun had set a slower pace he might have held Street Sense off in the Derby. And that was without pressure. With Flying in there, he might get involved in a speed duel or be pressed to go faster. Pino doesn't really seem to want to rate him, or as the pre-derby workout showed, he doesn't realize how fast this horse is going. Just because a horse seems to be going easy doesn't mean he's not burning glycogen when he runs fast.
That's a big mistake a lot of jocks make.

Bob

[kenwoodallpromos]

Since I believe Street Sense won fair and square but Hard Spun performed best;
Can't Hard Spun rate off the pace?

[john del riccio]

Since I believe Street Sense won fair and square but Hard Spun performed best;
Can't Hard Spun rate off the pace?

If I thought he could rate from behind horses, I wouldn't have been cold on him,
he hasn't shown that ability as of yet.

John

[46zilzal]

Since I believe Street Sense won fair and square but Hard Spun performed best;

Best when all alone on the lead, no pressure and was not in the winner's circle. Interesting idea of best.....

[shanta]

Hard Spun had to FIGHT the first quarter mile to get the lead. Fraction was run in 22.4. He certainly did not have things his own way in my opinion anyway.

the result chart showing the 1st fraction and the "heading" or fighting that took place EARLY on.

[shanta]

and the chart comment.

[46zilzal]

Hard Spun had to FIGHT the first quarter mile to get the lead. Fraction was run in 22.4. He certainly did not have things his own way in my opinion anyway.

the result chart showing the 1st fraction and the "heading" or fighting that took place EARLY on.
AH, at the start of a race, when all are equal, a colt has to do something to get ahead of the pack. A quarter mile is not taxing on any animal unless it is 20.3 or something.....

Unless my math is wrong, 22.96 rounds to 23.0 and not 22.4. That is fairly pedestrian as most Derbies go.

That much of the race is almost irrelevant.

[OTM Al]

Alot of these new horses coming in to the Preakness look very sprinterish to me. Really wasn't much in the way of sprinter types in the Derby this year. Its one reason why I think Hard Spun is going to have a much bigger problem with this race as he will be tempted to go all out at a much faster pace. Curlin better be careful too as though he has shown the ability to sit back and make a good move, I think his true style is pressing near the pace. With all these sprinters in this race, it really is setting up well for Street Sense I think.

[OTM Al]

46, you don't round up, so 22.80 to 22.99 is 22.4. Kinda silly, but that's the way they do it

[46zilzal]

46, you don't round up, so 22.80 to 22.99 is 22.4. Kinda silly, but that's the way they do it
you mean I have to suspend the realities of math here?

[46zilzal]

opening quarters in the Derby
98 23.2
99 23.52
00 22.47
01 22.25
02 23.25
03 22.78
04 22.98
05 22.28

so where does 22.96 go in this? about average..

[JPinMaryland]

Right, the pace was not too taxing. Well, the half was fast, not ridiculously fast but fast. The 3/4 and mile was excellent for a front runner.

So I would ask Bob: What pace do you think would have been better for HS at the 3/4 and mile? I thought Pino had him paced perfectly. He finished in 25.4 which is just about what you want for a front runner, just lost to an excellent closer..

[Tom]

It might be average for the last few Derbies, but where did the horses who set those fractions end up after 10 furlongs?

[Pace Cap'n]

Well, the half was fast, not ridiculously fast but fast.

So, one could say it was just a half-fast Derby?

[jotb]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]Flying First Class hasn't run a 2 turn race as nicely as he has around one turn but the pace figur ehe earned in the Serby Trial certainly makes it plausible that he and HARD SPUN could hook up on the front end.

Hello John:

That was a fast race for Flying First Class but like you said hoss has not appreciated going 2 turns and was not on the lead in either one. I wanted to ask you a question about that distance 7.5K at CD. Are the times faster early on at 7.5F than the 6F race normally? I was thinking they might be faster early on because there is a longer run down the backside before going into the turn. At 7.5F do they start from a chute? That 108.67 for him was fast and I looked up some of the other sprints that day and it was the only 7.5F on the card. The majority of sprints that day were at 6F and the MSW went pretty quick 21.60, 45.60, 109.94. There was a 6F race for fillies that went 21.54, 45.01 109.57 and it was a OptAlw3x. I was thinking maybe the Flying First Class race was not as impressive as it seems to be and maybe because that distance was the reason for the fast internal fractions.

Best regards,
Joe

[bobphilo]

Right, the pace was not too taxing. Well, the half was fast, not ridiculously fast but fast. The 3/4 and mile was excellent for a front runner.

So I would ask Bob: What pace do you think would have been better for HS at the 3/4 and mile? I thought Pino had him paced perfectly. He finished in 25.4 which is just about what you want for a front runner, just lost to an excellent closer..

JP,

The more a front runner can slow the pace the better. After having to vie for the lead in the fast 1st quarter (maybe average for the Derby but fast for a 10 furlong race run in 2:02.17), Pino had the chance to slow the pace but just let him keep on rolling because he was pricking his ears. Hard Spun just has a habit of pricking his ears even when he is running fast. That's why Pino was fooled into thinking he wasn't working fast in his sizzling pre-Derby work.
The effects of pace are exponential so that a slight deviation from even pace is not significant, but I've found that when a horse gets to or exceeds 2 sec deviation, which is what HS did, his final time suffers. It's just physics - kinetic energy increases exponentially with each increase in velocity. So for a race run in 2:02, a 6F fraction of about 1:12 or slower would have served him better.

Having said that, whether or not Hard Spun can do better in the Preakness if rated is irrelevant since Pino has made it clear he didn't think he went too fast early in the Derby and won't go any slower early in the Preakness anyway.

Bob

[john del riccio]

[QUOTE=john del riccio]Flying First Class hasn't run a 2 turn race as nicely as he has around one turn but the pace figur ehe earned in the Serby Trial certainly makes it plausible that he and HARD SPUN could hook up on the front end.

Hello John:

That was a fast race for Flying First Class but like you said hoss has not appreciated going 2 turns and was not on the lead in either one. I wanted to ask you a question about that distance 7.5K at CD. Are the times faster early on at 7.5F than the 6F race normally? I was thinking they might be faster early on because there is a longer run down the backside before going into the turn. At 7.5F do they start from a chute? That 108.67 for him was fast and I looked up some of the other sprints that day and it was the only 7.5F on the card. The majority of sprints that day were at 6F and the MSW went pretty quick 21.60, 45.60, 109.94. There was a 6F race for fillies that went 21.54, 45.01 109.57 and it was a OptAlw3x. I was thinking maybe the Flying First Class race was not as impressive as it seems to be and maybe because that distance was the reason for the fast internal fractions.

Best regards,
Joe

Joe,

The raw times for races out of a chute going 7 1/2f, a mile, and at BEL 1 1/16 & 1 1/8 are almost always faster than two turn races and the sprints. The key is the turn. Going 1 1/8 mi, for example, at BEL, its almost 5/8 of a mile til the turn. The horses just see a long way ahead of them in a straight line (the jocks too). I had FFC running a pace figure in that race that would make it very interesting to see how things shape up in the Preakness. He has worked well since and my only concern is the fact that he doesn't seem to have the same zip around two turns. The Derby Trial fell apart a bit but it may be understandable because the pace was pretty quick. 71/2f at CD does start in the chute and unlike BEL or HOL its actually not straight but has a slight bend to it. Check out the head on one day, or just ask fats, he is the race watching guru on this board for sure. I'll bet you he can tell you when they need to have their coats shaved off too !

John

[the_fat_man]

Best when all alone on the lead, no pressure and was not in the winner's circle. Interesting idea of best.....

I don't usually agree with anything you post, Partner

but you're on the money in this case.

HS is gonna have a RUDE AWAKENING in the Preakness --- or, better, his supporters will.

No EASY lead, and, should he choose to sit, he gets to kick home with the big boys.

Just so many perfect trips to go around.