On your honor.......

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Here is your chance to thump your chest and declare to the world your Derby winning tickets, or even bold losing plays.

Did you have an unusual theory that paid off?

Share with other handicappers how you approached the most hallowed of racing events.

Anyone have a piece of Brisbet's Pik6 syndicate hit that paid nearly a quarter million dollars.....twice?

If the thread is met with any interest, I too, may post.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom
Seattle, WA

[samyn on the green]

No more redboarding please. It is a gross violation of racetrack etiquette. Just don't do it. Cashing a significnt ticket is one of the great joys of life and yes it is alway better to do thing like this with others. However the satisfaction should come from within. If you want to be cajoled by the masses post the bets before the race and do not redboard.

[ELA]

In this case I can see both sides of the coin. But at the same time, the "redboarding" thing, if that's what we are talking about, is nothing more than BS showing off. Personally, I don't care. For the people here that I know personally, if they posted what they hit -- after the race -- I would believe them. Then again, the people who I am talking about have integrity. I couldn't speak to those I don't know personally of course. I also think to just to call every "I had it" redboarding is also nonsense. To me, that's some nonsensically developed internet protocol. What is this, honor amongst theives? LOL.

If Bob Fox posted that he had $X across the board on Street Sense, I would believe him, even if I didn't know the colt was his pick before the race. Bob is not the kind of guy who would say he had 5 times or 10 times X on the horse. He's not the kind of guy who would say he had twice X.

If it's about self satisfaction than I don't see the point in posting your picks before and thumping your chest afterwards either.

There are some well known public handicappers here, some are professionals I would venture, some are not. Doesn't matter. I think you take it with a grain of salt and based upon the shaker it came from so to speak, LOL.

Eric

[Bruddah]

I am not sure this is what you are looking for, but I love relating this experience with Ms. Elsie.

In the early 70's ( I was a youngster then) having saved enough money to take a weeks vacation at Oaklawn and do nothing but play the ponies. I had payed my motel bill for the week, and rationed $100 a day for betting and $10 per day for eating. Not a lot by todays standards, but a small fortune to a young single guy. I was fortunate enough to wrangle a box from a family friend, for the entire week, and felt like nobility.

The first night I spent handicapping until I fell into an exhausted sleep. I awoke feeling, as if, I had every winner, of every race. This was going to be my LUCKY DAY. A horse players dream come true.

When I arrived at my box, I noticed an elderly (80ish) lady in the next box. She introduced herself as Elsie ? (can't remember) and therefore, I referred to her as Ms. Elsie, the rest of the day. She also had a "runner" assigned to place and retrieve her bets. She had a program and nothing else to aid in her handicapping. I thought, poor little old lady will probably lose all her money. To make a long story short, by the 8th race, she had collected a winners ticket on every race. (7 straight winners) Me? I hadn't collected a dime and had $20 left out of my bank roll. All pride gone, I leaned over and asked Ms. Elsie who she liked in the next race. She looked at her program and pointed to 'Times a Movin'. I sprinted up to the betting windows and put $10 to win on the nag. It won and paid $20 and change. Got me even for the day. Naturally, I relied on my new handicapping friend for the final race of the day. She pointed to 'More Coins'. I put my new found $100 to Win on 'More Coins' and he won, the last race of the day. Within 2 races Ms. Elsie had taken me from almost broke to over a grand winner. Enough to pay for my entire vacation and bets at the track.

By now, I was convinced Ms. Elsie was the head of a betting syndicate, which probably knew the winner of every race. I was destined to be a Millionaire, just by sitting next to the old girl. I asked her how long she had been playing the horses and how could she possibly handicap 9 winners in a row. She told me it was the first time she had ever been to the track. The box belonged to her son in law and daughter. As a matter of fact, they were coming down the aisle to get her and they were going home. She also told me, she didn't know what all the fuss was about, in picking a winner. She had collected on 9, $2 winning tickets.

Today when I go to the track, I still look for Ms. Elsie, 40 years later.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

No more redboarding please. It is a gross violation of racetrack etiquette. Just don't do it. Cashing a significnt ticket is one of the great joys of life and yes it is alway better to do thing like this with others. However the satisfaction should come from within. If you want to be cajoled by the masses post the bets before the race and do not redboard.

I can respect your position. Redboarding can be annoying, but if I were to ask you "how you did you approach your Derby decisions, and what were your results," how would you answer the question? With silence? If you answer this question with a "yes" then I'm thinking the thread is not for you.

Redboarding, from where I sit, comes unsolicited. Discussion and perspective is more what I was looking for, but I wasn't looking to step on anyone's toes, and apparently, I have.

BTW, racetrack etiquette, according to Andy Beyer, allows one, should their score exceed 10% of their annual gross earnings, to jump up on the table and declare oneself "King of the World!" Now, I imagine that there are different renditions of this proclomation, and I was giving anyone that wanted to share that forum.

Personally, I revel in the good hits of others. A hearty "good on ya!" will often be accompanied by a slap on the back and the question "can I buy you a drink?" I guess I'm just a contrarian because this posture is exactly the opposite of what most racing fans display.

If I may ask, what is the definition of Redboarding? I can't seem to find an accurate one.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck

[john del riccio]

Here is your chance to thump your chest and declare to the world your Derby winning tickets, or even bold losing plays.

Did you have an unusual theory that paid off?

Share with other handicappers how you approached the most hallowed of racing events.

Anyone have a piece of Brisbet's Pik6 syndicate hit that paid nearly a quarter million dollars.....twice?

If the thread is met with any interest, I too, may post.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom
Seattle, WA

Hajck,

The turf stake right befoe the Derby featured one of my better geritol moments. I thought that Milk It Mick was ready to run a good race seeing as he ran great last year over this turf course in this very race, liked a turf course with some give, and was third off the layoff. I played him to win & place and boxed him with SKY CONQUERER and BRILLIANT. I did not make a three horse box, it was just MIM in a box with each of them. That my friend is called stupidity, especially since I thought EINSTIEN was a very bad favorite being 0-2 at CD. I guess this is considered BLACK-boarding...;)~

John

[kenwoodallpromos]

This year there seemed to be far less injuries, and less inconsistent records among the contenders, so I figujred low odds entries to do well.
Go to my TVG Fantasy picks and you will see both SS and HS there.

[46zilzal]

B.S. you learn from DOING and part of that doing is incorrect. This mania about never talking about past wagers in handicapping decisions is plain stupid.

Imagine if I were presenting a paper on pharmaceutical interactions and never produced any historical data? Same here: REVIEW is what teaches you nothing else...

I have been to and/or capped more races than the majority here and have learned from review over and over.....Keep testosterone out of the scientific method.

[samyn on the green]

Reboarding is all about credibility. There is nothing scientific about losing your butt at the track than logging on here and bragging about what a smart cookie you are.

There is nothing scientific about posting your outsourced computer selections after they win. How about posting before the race and showing us the dozens of losers it took to stumble upon that winner. There is a massive credibility issue that needs to be addressed here.

Posting winners to others is also about sharing and caring. If you are going to share info, make thousands of posts, why not share a winner with the group before the race, when they have a chance to get into the action. Posting after the race about how great your selections are is also rude, you are putting your finger in someones face and saying I am number 1. It is OK to be number 1 but at the track you have to make your bets before the race and not after.

Redboarding is a massive racetrack protocol violation. Post before the race and then you can get all the accolades you desire. If not do not post prior to the race do not redboard about how great you are.

[46zilzal]

Redboarding is a massive racetrack protocol violation. Post before the race and then you can get all the accolades you desire. If not do not post prior to the race do not redboard about how great you are.
I will have to take that up with the Minsitry of Thought Mr. Winston Smith.

Ego has nothing to do with the philosophy or the mechanics of handicapping angles....When you present an angle, what are you going to do, present one that didn't work to save some theoretical face? MALARKEY!!!

Quick tell American Turf Monthly that they have had it wrong for year and years. They better wise up.

[samyn on the green]

I will have to take that up with the Minsitry of Thought Mr. Winston Smith.

Ego has nothing to do with the philosophy or the mechanics of handicapping angles....When you present an angle, what are you going to do, present one that didn't work to save some theoretical face? MALARKEY!!!

Quick tell American Turf Monthly that they have had it wrong for year and years. They better wise up.As we continue with this thread it is clear that you can not post winners before the race because you do not have winners to post. Speaking of Winston Smith/Orwell and all of this talk about Sartin/Velocity figures/computer program selections is a load of double think. Forget all that and take a bee-line right to the winners. This game of mastering horseflesh form has always been and will always be an art and not the ancillary science of handicapping products. Redboarding is a thoughtcrime and a speachcrime and the ministry frowns on it.

By the way here is the Belmont late pick 3 on a very slim ticket. No redboard needed.

4/1,5,6/5,7,8,10

[46zilzal]

I talk handicapping principles and do not run a tout service. Wagering is an exclusive discipline to handicapping. As far as Sartinists are concerned you will have to reprogam hundreds of users as it continues to work day in day out (for me since 1987), and is part of dozens of programs. Wow, they are all wrong? new to me..

There is no set protocol about the discussion of learning anything. Principles, in order to be understood, need examples, after the fact: the way we all learn. ANY discipline.

Riding a bike: you learn from experience. Your review your mistakes and improve.
Typing, many trials before mastery. Principles to help learning require review.
Swimming, skiing, taking photographs, Drawing, tying one's shoes...the list in endless.

Along the way, some people find things that work better than others and, in order to enlighten similar enthusiasts to those facets on the learning curve, they provide sucessful examples. EVERY DISCIPLINE follows these steps, so handicapping and the lessons learned are then somehow distinct to the learning agenda? Hardly.

[Pace Cap'n]

I have never felt offended by a redboard. In fact, I rather enjoy them.

I didn't cash a ticket on the Derby. Looking back, it would have been so simple, using a bit of logic. Box the favs, THEN start with all the fancy capping and betting.

[shanta]

I lost my Derby win bet(I didn't wager the exotics). I wagered Great Hunter to win in the Derby.

When I saw the race setup consisting of
a) Stormello
b) Hard Spun
c) Liquidity
d) Nobiz
e) Curlin(whom I felt had almost no chance to win the race igonoring the hype. a 47-112 horse who TODAY would be facing a 1:10.4 PROJECTED PACE which I posted BEFORE the race ran here. I missed by a tick when it actually went 1:11.)

I felt these horses would go early fast enough (start to 6f mark) that the race WINNER would be other than early. When I bet off the pace types I have focused on the quick moving positional gainers between calls who are fast. That left me on
a) SS
b) Great Hunter
c) AGS

Tiago-slow ass horse
Circular Quay-just didnt look right at all which I stated in the war room the night previous(along with my losing selection)

I saw that last year Great Hunter defeated Street Sense and SS had defeated GH. I don't pay ANY attention to post positions and the like
(referring to GH and post 20). Could that have cost me here? ABSOLUTELY.

I wanted to bet the horse among the 2 that would be CLOSEST to the pace and that was GH. As it turned out he was ahead of SS early on but had nothing while SS went by and dazzled.

I saw the projected pace almost DEAD ON.
I saw the winning running style DEAD ON.
I picked the wrong horse and lost my win bet which for me was fairly sizeable.
I move on.
Congrats to EVERYONE who made bucks on the race!

That's it!
Richie

[Tom]

As we continue with this thread it is clear that you can not post winners before the race because you do not have winners to post. Speaking of Winston Smith/Orwell and all of this talk about Sartin/Velocity figures/computer program selections is a load of double think. Forget all that and take a bee-line right to the winners. This game of mastering horseflesh form has always been and will always be an art and not the ancillary science of handicapping products. Redboarding is a thoughtcrime and a speachcrime and the ministry frowns on it.

By the way here is the Belmont late pick 3 on a very slim ticket. No redboard needed.

4/1,5,6/5,7,8,10

Here's the deal - your ignorance of what other people do should not be worn like a badge of honor. I use a program similar to the one 46 uses - an earlier version, and it is not doubletalk. And the art of horseflesh? Hey, if it works for you, great, but guess what, you are not the only one out there handicapping and winning races. Your inablilty to understand programs is unfotunate, but nothing to be proud of. ;)
And if you don't like "redboarding" skip the threads. Obviously, more here have expressed an interest.

[joeyspicks]

Redboarding can be fun....the question is always "how much is truth" ?

I posted Curlin / Street Sense. My Redboard is I did see Hard Spun as the leader in the stretch. I really did not see him lasting after a 46.2. I lost out on the $100 exacta because I tossed him out of my 3 horse box. He ran a hell of a race and it cost me.

I'm sticking with Curlin.....next two legs of the TC (assuming he's in)

[Pace Cap'n]

How would you like to have a winning $2 trifecta ticket on Saturday's Kentucky Derby and wind up losing $13,240.

It happened to a bettor at West Ridge OTB.

From the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle

According to witnesses, the man entered the parlor around noon and asked how much it would cost to buy every possible trifecta combination (a bettor must pick the first three finishers in exact order) in the 20-horse field. After being told it would cost $13,680, he left — presumably to visit his bank.

He returned shortly thereafter, purchased his tickets and left.

Here were the $2 trifecta payoffs for the past six Kentucky Derbies before Saturday:

2006 — $11,418.40.

2005 — $133,134.80.

2004 — $987.60.

2003 — $664.00.

2002 — $18,378.20.

2001 — $12,238.40.

Unfortunately for the hopeful bettor, the 2007 Derby $2 trifecta payoff of $440 was a far cry from 2005 and 2002 returns.

[Niko]

Good point Tom, don't want to read about a little instructional redboarding don't read. I don't like most redboarding but this is presented differently.

I didn't like the post and wasn't sure what the last race took out of him but I bet AGS. Forgot about Churchill's latest propensity of creating a speed favoring inside (inside part) track on the big days. My mistake.

[ELA]

Reboarding is all about credibility. There is nothing scientific about losing your butt at the track than logging on here and bragging about what a smart cookie you are.

There is nothing scientific about posting your outsourced computer selections after they win. How about posting before the race and showing us the dozens of losers it took to stumble upon that winner. There is a massive credibility issue that needs to be addressed here.

Posting winners to others is also about sharing and caring. If you are going to share info, make thousands of posts, why not share a winner with the group before the race, when they have a chance to get into the action. Posting after the race about how great your selections are is also rude, you are putting your finger in someones face and saying I am number 1. It is OK to be number 1 but at the track you have to make your bets before the race and not after.

Redboarding is a massive racetrack protocol violation. Post before the race and then you can get all the accolades you desire. If not do not post prior to the race do not redboard about how great you are.

I think the credibility factor is a very relative one. Apparently it's monstrous for some. I don't really care about someone who loses big time and brags about how smart he is. What am I going to do next, catch a guy picking his nose, LOL? Seriously, those posts are very transparent and very obvious. Either you are a pretender or a contender.

Some of the people here already have credibility -- they can so call redboard all they want as far as I am concerned. I read and hear Andy Serling's comments before a race and they are the same after the race, regardless of who he bet and whether he won or lost. Does everyone automatically get the credibility he does? Of course not, and I understand that.

What difference does it make about how many losers it took to get to a winner vis a vis keeping score. That's trivial. We read about the losers, we talk about the losers, and we know about the losers -- and to me that doesn't jutify or make the winner any more important or relative. The ticket you cash pays the same amount regardless.

As far as the sharing, I think that's very simple. Very few professionals are going to share and I completely understand that. Call it greedy, rude, whatever you like. There is a huge difference in betting and betting as your livelihood. If a professional wants to share, OK, but I understand if they don't. If someone wants to share, great. If they don't, I am fine with that as well. And, everyone is entitled to feel anyway they want about that. I don't think anyone's opinion on this must be universal or exclusive.

As far as it being rude, OK, I can see that -- depending very much on how it's done. As far as it being like sticking your finger in someone's face, and saying you are # 1 -- come on now, you've got to be kidding. It may be that way for you, and that's OK. But to me, the way it occurs is in the eye of the recipient.

Anyway, great thread and I think everyone brought out some great points.

Eric

[Ron]

Reboarding is all about credibility. There is nothing scientific about losing your butt at the track than logging on here and bragging about what a smart cookie you are.

There is nothing scientific about posting your outsourced computer selections after they win. How about posting before the race and showing us the dozens of losers it took to stumble upon that winner. There is a massive credibility issue that needs to be addressed here.

Posting winners to others is also about sharing and caring. If you are going to share info, make thousands of posts, why not share a winner with the group before the race, when they have a chance to get into the action. Posting after the race about how great your selections are is also rude, you are putting your finger in someones face and saying I am number 1. It is OK to be number 1 but at the track you have to make your bets before the race and not after.

Redboarding is a massive racetrack protocol violation. Post before the race and then you can get all the accolades you desire. If not do not post prior to the race do not redboard about how great you are.

Sounds like you lost.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Reboarding is all about credibility. There is nothing scientific about losing your butt at the track than logging on here and bragging about what a smart cookie you are.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/othersports/314530_larry05.html

Fair enough. Here is an interpreted analysis of my reports on Friday. I won't say what I hit, but suffice it to say I was surprised to see the 6% Kentucky state withholding tax on top of the 29% Federal.

Apologies if this comes off as rude, but I'm trying to stay within your protocals.:lol:

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom
Seattle, WA

[cj]

I don't play the big exotics like supers and tris. How did you capitalize on this:

So my play is to key Hard Spun with Scat Daddy over the field on an off track, and key Street Sense and Scat Daddy over the field on a fast surface."

[46zilzal]

The great thing about a Sartin evaluation of the Derby is that it allows you to throw out some colts. None of them get the money if their %median is higher than 68%......

Right off the top that allowed one to throw out Stormello, Scat Daddy, and NoBiz, Tuflesberg and Bwana Bull without looking a bit closer: I mentioned that here to Tom. Then going back to total energy, you threw out Zanjero, Tiago, Great Hunter, Sam P, Liquidity, Storm in May, Coaltown, Sedgefield...

I posted extensive files from the last 6 Derbies, had others checked them and found the same things. Amazingly consistent year to year: If the total energy is not in the top 6-8, and %median above 67.8, no where to be found.

[46zilzal]

form my website.
Preliminary review. The more I study the numbers; races are MORE about distribution than absolute total energy. If a horse has an overwhelming advantage in total energy, it can overcome the energy distribution differences. If you look at this year's total energies coming into the Derby they are about 2% higher than past year's averages. I would suggest that this had to do with the Trackmaster re-calibration more than anything else.

Averaging then the % median of the last several years, it is 67.57 with a range from 67.23 to 67.9.

The second time through they look like this, name, total avg last three, median last dirt

Dominican 167.73 (no BG) 67.17
No Biz 166.29 68.23*
Curlin 166.28 67.3
Any Given Sat 166.14 67.7
Scat 165.90 68.06*
Imawildand 165.77 67.6 rising
Stormello 165.8 68.07 rising
Street Sense 165.77 (no BG) 66.9*
Hard Spun 165.33 (includes TP) 67.87
Circular Quay 165.19 67.3
Zanjero 165.03 67.1
Teuflesburg 165.02 68.1*
Bwana Bull 165.02 68.1*
Tiago 164.32 67.8
Great Hunter 164.34 (no B.G.)67.17
Liquidity 164.19 67.7 rising
Sam P. 164.16 67.6 rising
Storm in May 163.78 67.73
Coaltown Cat 163.48 67.2
Sedgefield 163.0 (dirt) 67.66

* outside of parameters, (no BG) No Blue Grass lines used.includes TP turfway lines polytrack.

I have found that for routes, the total energy relativity is very important, and in this race the % median is very narrow except many are in range.


P.S. Hate to think it is this mechanical, but it simply IS.

[Tom]

You are singing to the choir.

I did like NoBiz a lot based on his pace/speed figure shapes, so he and SS were my top two. I managed a 1-3 "hatzacta in the exotics with win money on the two contenders. You tried to warn me about NoBiz....*sigh*

[keilan]

form my website.
Preliminary review. The more I study the numbers; races are MORE about distribution than absolute total energy. If a horse has an overwhelming advantage in total energy, it can overcome the energy distribution differences. If you look at this year's total energies coming into the Derby they are about 2% higher than past year's averages. I would suggest that this had to do with the Trackmaster re-calibration more than anything else.

Averaging then the % median of the last several years, it is 67.57 with a range from 67.23 to 67.9.

The second time through they look like this, name, total avg last three, median last dirt

Dominican 167.73 (no BG) 67.17
No Biz 166.29 68.23*
Curlin 166.28 67.3
Any Given Sat 166.14 67.7
Scat 165.90 68.06*
Imawildand 165.77 67.6 rising
Stormello 165.8 68.07 rising
Street Sense 165.77 (no BG) 66.9*
Hard Spun 165.33 (includes TP) 67.87
Circular Quay 165.19 67.3
Zanjero 165.03 67.1
Teuflesburg 165.02 68.1*
Bwana Bull 165.02 68.1*
Tiago 164.32 67.8
Great Hunter 164.34 (no B.G.)67.17
Liquidity 164.19 67.7 rising
Sam P. 164.16 67.6 rising
Storm in May 163.78 67.73
Coaltown Cat 163.48 67.2
Sedgefield 163.0 (dirt) 67.66

* outside of parameters, (no BG) No Blue Grass lines used.includes TP turfway lines polytrack.

I have found that for routes, the total energy relativity is very important, and in this race the % median is very narrow except many are in range.


P.S. Hate to think it is this mechanical, but it simply IS.


I can't believe you type this shite with a straight face. These types of statements are deceptive and totally without merit. No where to you adjust for pace in previous races or for a projected pace in the Derby.

If you're throwing NoBiz out because of energy requirements then your thought process and program fail you miserably.

[46zilzal]

I can't believe you type this shite with a straight face. These types of statements are deceptive and totally without merit. No where to you adjust for pace in previous races or for a projected pace in the Derby.

If you're throwing NoBiz out because of energy requirements then your thought process and program fail you miserably.

Well, they are the SAME energy requirements that have worked now for 8 years. I am sorry you think they don't, but the facts simply don't lie. This data was just a QUALIFIER for the ones entered into the final mix. As I recall you called it the same thing before (when I listed the last three lines of previous Derby winners and they all fell within therse parameters), and it worked every year before....The interactions of these styles projected the final pace scenario which was never put up.


I can quote example after example from previous years that were disqualified on similar grounds.

i.e. here are Charismatic's last three: lower % median last three and overall increase in total. SAME guidelines as this year.

[46zilzal]

An exclusion was Congaree for two reasons: seasoning and increasing median as the distances increased Outside the parameters that work.

[46zilzal]

another one Invisible Ink. DQ's for the same reasons.

[46zilzal]

Harlan's Holiday nowhere and outside the parameters. Morning line 9/2

[46zilzal]

then there is NoBiz. Anything look similar??? I think so: outside the parameters.

[Greyfox]

Thanks 46Z.
I'll keep that in mind for next year, God willing.
If something works use it. And it's been working for you.

[46zilzal]

Another one that burned some money Noble Causeway.

When there is data over and over that substantiates a conclusion, one generally heeds it.

[keilan]

Zilly – without adjusting for pace and trip the energy number is simply not reliable unto itself. This is the central reason that most players are confused by the variable, for as many times that it seems to make sense new uses soon find that on an equal number of times it’s unreliable. To put forth un-adjusted estimates of energy doesn’t cut it for me.

[46zilzal]

War Emblem the last three: BIG improvements and improving energy distribution all within the parameters.

[keilan]

then there is NoBiz. Anything look similar??? I think so: outside the parameters.


Post the date of these races okay -- then I'll try and explain a couple things to you

[46zilzal]

Zilly – without adjusting for pace and trip the energy number is simply not reliable unto itself. This is the central reason that most players are confused by the variable, for as many times that it seems to make sense new uses soon find that on an equal number of times it’s unreliable. To put forth un-adjusted estimates of energy doesn’t cut it for me.
I thought it was too simplisitc myself but after 8 years of review, it has worked every year. It is a QUALIFIER, then once you get the colts together, you differentiate them.

As distances increase, SOME colts tell you they cannot get the distance as they run EARLIER into the contests and cannot apportion their runs later. It is a key to this and many developing three year olds.....

It works that's all I can say.

[46zilzal]

Post the date of these races okay -- then I'll try and explain a couple things to you
No Biz's last three before the Derby.

and one of my favorite eliminations, Bellamy Road.

[46zilzal]

Funnycide last three. right in the same ballpark.

[46zilzal]

At the other extreme Sweetnorthernsaint. TOO LOW

[keilan]

It works that's all I can say.


Zilly if you don't understand how it works then it doesn't work. R u going to post the race dates for nobiz?

[keilan]

At the other extreme Sweetnorthernsaint. TOO LOW


There is no such thing as "too low" when it comes to energy. Matterafact if one is building models and see's a horse that runs competitive speed numbers with a lower %E than falls below the energy range it's time to hustle to the windows

[rrbauer]

Let me break the "tie" here.

This is text from an email that I sent to about 20 friends/cohorts (including some folks that hangout here) last Friday about noon EDT.

(The "can win" list is in PP order)

Derby horses with forward-moving sheet patterns that
look like they can run a figure (6 or better) fast enough to
win.
Curlin
Cowtown Cat
Street Sense (1)
Hard Spun
Tiago
Circular Quay

(1) Had a very grueling race in Tampa Derby and bounced in
his next race but has come back with two nice works at
Churchill. Any Given Saturday also bounced out of the Tampa
race but has not worked back as sharply since then.

A "lookout" horse to use in exotics: Sedgefield (a full
brother to English Channel) ran 2nd in the Lanes End despite
trouble and then ran back too soon at Keeneland. Has had a
month off and has been working well at Churchill. Can run
all day. Leparoux has been working him in morning.

You know what I know!

Good luck...........

Richard Bauer


Postscript to the email....Maybe Sedgefield can't run all day after all!

[keilan]

Postscript to the email....Maybe Sedgefield can't run all day after all!


Nah Rich that's unfair I think he's still running ;)

I'll tell ya I was cheering for him in the stretch to hang on for 3rd at 58-1

[chickenhead]

Nah Rich that's unfair I think he's still running ;)

I'll tell ya I was cheering for him in the stretch to hang on for 3rd at 58-1

You had him to show? :confused:





























;)

[keilan]

That's right chic -- but I didn't use Curlin anywhere.

It's not about overhyped horses at low odds that pays the bills. :cool:

[46zilzal]

Zilly if you don't understand how it works then it doesn't work. R u going to post the race dates for nobiz?
last three before the derby as I already put a few messages back!

[46zilzal]

Zilly if you don't understand how it works then it doesn't work. R u going to post the race dates for nobiz?
LONG ago, when I first started this I had an idea that is still extant today: MOST horses have a hard wired running style. When they express it they do well, when it is hampered they do not........I thank Malcolm Gladwell for my listening to that implicit logic.

I call it simply style over substance: some races REQUIRE narrow energy distribution parameters and that race on the first Saturday in May is one of them.

[46zilzal]

There is no such thing as "too low" when it comes to energy. Matterafact if one is building models and see's a horse that runs competitive speed numbers with a lower %E than falls below the energy range it's time to hustle to the windows
percent early is not % median, the latter is much more accurate......If that % median is not matcheed by a top or near top energy, the animal won't get up: they will be too far back.

[DJofSD]

MOST horses have a hard wired running style.

zz, I agree. I choose to look at it this way: muscle fibers are composed of different types. That does not change.

[keilan]

Zilly – I give a crap whether you’re measuring late/early, everything is measured by fractional and final time correct?

If you believe that pace, trip and finish order are not important then you and I will never agree about the first thing about energy. Sounds like you’re purely mechanical which is fine but please don’t tell me a horse doesn’t qualify because he’s energy number is too low.

If you refer back to nobiz – he’s last race with the addition of blinkers is clearly his best race to date after all pervious races have been adjusted for maturity and time. Is that not something most players would find significant? There are comment lines in his 2nd to last race – “bumped at the start, steadied 1st turn” would you think that that might be something many players would like to adjust for?

I’m trying to understand the significance of your table below when I look at the “total average last three” the range is Sedgefield 163.0 (none of those races measured were on dirt or poly) to Dominican at 167.73. The next set of relative numbers is “median last dirt” range from NoBiz at 68.23 to Street Sense at 66.9.

Please explain this to me so that I understand what you are trying to say. Ohh and where you see a ? those to are question of you.

Dominican 167.73 (no BG) 67.17
No Biz 166.29 68.23*
Curlin 166.28 67.3
Any Given Sat 166.14 67.7
Scat 165.90 68.06*
Imawildand 165.77 67.6 rising
Stormello 165.8 68.07 rising
Street Sense 165.77 (no BG) 66.9*
Hard Spun 165.33 (includes TP) 67.87
Circular Quay 165.19 67.3
Zanjero 165.03 67.1
Teuflesburg 165.02 68.1*
Bwana Bull 165.02 68.1*
Tiago 164.32 67.8
Great Hunter 164.34 (no B.G.)67.17
Liquidity 164.19 67.7 rising
Sam P. 164.16 67.6 rising
Storm in May 163.78 67.73
Coaltown Cat 163.48 67.2
Sedgefield 163.0 (dirt) 67.66

[46zilzal]

One of the greatest epiphanies I ever had was after reading BLINK. At the heart of it, it says one thing: we over-complicate things and forget that it is implicit logic that triumphs. In handicapping, I follow his mantra: Don't think, blink and is has provided dividends farther reaching than at any phase in my handicapping experience. We contaminate implicit logic and cloud it with too many marginally applicable factors.

All those races above were based upon dirt, with the exception of Hard Spun and Dominican.

Malcolm Galdwell outlines multiple examples of same. One of my favorites is about the cardiac care unit at Cook County Hospital. Using a simple allgorithm of three factors from a Harvard study, the physician's diagnostic rate of actue cardiac syndrome went to almost 92%. Anyone admitted with chest pain, who did not have these THREE simple factors, was stablized and then safely sent home. If the "implicit" logic were muddied by adding too many extraneous, marginally adaptive factors, as they had done before they began this allgorithm, too many patients were admited, wasting the resources of the cardiac care unit.

Three year olds progress as they mature. They tell you, over a three to four race period about their "implicit" style. The one great thing about better animals is their consistency: they run to the style that their bodies tell them. The rider, the trainer might try to change this, but at the heart of it is the horse's implicit style. A troulbed trip can change it, or a crazy track like Keeneland can alter it. If this style were not implicit, the constancy of their energy distribution would be all over the place and it simply is NOT.

Time after time I found three ways that the % median climbs over three races.
1) when a horse meets a progressively faster pace. It tries to keep up and overextends. An example listed here was Hoosick Falls. Remember him Tom?
2) Horses going off form meet similar a similar pace, and cannot keep up. Their median rises as their form falls off. Again it is over three races to be significant. Happens all the time.
3) The most germane here: Babies tell you that they cannot take the next step is distances by shifting to a progressively higher % median. Bob and John did this last year before the Belmont as was a short prices write off as the result. I have reproduced his last three here and you can see the same pattern.

I would no be so sternly entrenched about this if it were a passing thing or isolated instance. This is the result of 8 years of data evaluation.

[46zilzal]

Patterns that repeat over 8 years take precedent over any extraneous specific factors of equipment of they would not be so consistent.

Here is an example of another three year old outside the parameters who did not get job done: Bandini.

[46zilzal]

High Fly fell outside these numbers and where did that one finish?

[46zilzal]

As the races got longer leading up to the Derby, the trend of maturing into a lower % median distribution was Giacomo's record as well.

[46zilzal]

Ten Most Wanted, a colt given some chance, energy says no.

[46zilzal]

A colt that fooled me that year as having a chance to win, Peace Rules...too high and going backwards. Did well in spite of this.

[46zilzal]

Sometime qualifiers fail as Brother Derek did.

[46zilzal]

Monarchos was the highest of the last 8 years, but towered over the field.

[46zilzal]

Imawildandcrazyguy, a colt I wouldn't have considered, is right in the ball park.

[46zilzal]

Here is a classic, that in most years would have been a winner:right in the midrange of Point Given....CLASSICAL for this race.

It repeats over and over: last three averging 67.2-67.8 and you have a Derby qulaifier. Rising % median they watch from the sidelines.

[46zilzal]

Regarding NoBiz. A race of 9 furlongs is 5940 feet. A horse's stride is about 24 feet, so during this race, (adding about 4 for run-up) an animal has about 251 strides.

A bump (a subjective connotation without any reference to distance lost) might account for one to two strides. Steadied (subjective to chart maker as others, seeing the same thing, might have said in tight, and again without quanitification of any distance loss) another 2 to three strides.

So at best 5 strides in 251 (5/251)(100)=1.99203 or about 2% of the rest effected....Hardly enough to change the implicit nature of the animal's runnig style...

[46zilzal]

The classic elimination was Saarland: as the date of the race came up, the last three distances 9,8,9 furlongs showed this one was running earlier and earlier. A sure sign of not getting the trip on Derby day.

[46zilzal]

I missed the significance of Hard Spun's continual developement as improving as the distances got longer. Classic pattern to do well on Derby day. Moved right into range that works.......slight backwards motion in total energy threw me off, but it is the % median that is the most telling.

[46zilzal]

Scat Daddy; rising and not a qualifier.

[46zilzal]

Stormello going the way of an observer on the first Saturday of May.

[samyn on the green]

Now the thread has gone the way of complete farce. A exercise in blowing ones own horn. There is nothing educational or helpful about cutting and pasting historical screenshots from ones computer program. How about the all the losers that fit the criteria?


If you want to educate show some screen shots before the races and provide commentary on how to weed out the losers from the winners. Show us some losers as this game is more about weeding out loser than finding winners. As it stands this thread is just a redboard farce. There are some nice races being run tonight or tomorrow, you can show us how great you are by selecting the winners of those races before they are run.

[46zilzal]

Another one who jumps to conclusions and does not read: these are all qualifiers. REPEAT qualifiers, and have nothing to do with wagering, only exlcusion (last three above 68) or inclusion (last three in range of 67.2-67.8 % median, or moving into that range as the distances increased). Sounds simple and it is.

This represents many many hours of work and data review. Strange I don't hear any horns, just data...

There was ONE that made it to the top three that fell outside these parameters and placed: Closing Argument.

[46zilzal]

There is nothing educational or helpful about cutting and pasting historical screenshots from ones computer program. How about the all the losers that fit the criteria?

How do you learn pharmacology: by review of drug actions and interactions by HISTORY.

How do you learn auto mechanics? By reviewing how problems were presented and the various methods that resulted in them being repaired, or not. History.

How do you learn baseball? by reviewing your play, finding out where you need to improve. By History.

How do you learn a foreign language? you REVIEW your progress and BY HISTORY, learn where your weaknesses and strengths are to be found.

One does not improve in any field of endeavor without a revie? If there is a common thread to be found in that historical review, all the better: a simple way to get qualifiers for one of the biggest races of the season based upon a review of over 200 entrants into said race. Review..

[Greyfox]

46Z do you have any similar back history for the Preakness energy distributions
that you can give us an idea of the ranges for? Strikes me that it might allow for a slightly higher early?

[46zilzal]

46Z do you have any similar back history for the Preakness energy distributions
that you can give us an idea of the ranges for? Strikes me that it might allow for a slightly higher early?
Off the top of me head, they run into the range of 67.8 to about 68.4, still a fairly narrow range. Historically however, there are often lone earliers who sneak off unopposed, any many of them are the ones that failed two weeks eariler..

[46zilzal]

Bernardini was in Derby range.