Keeping Pace

[douglasw32]

Okay So I get the whole set or overcome the pace.

I have noticed for a while that "eyeballing" who is most likely to lead, and the "HORSES" time at the Half...

Then looking at ANY races where that or a faster half was set by the leader of the past race(s) and eliminating any HORSE today who could not finish 1st or very close in lengths back when facing the same "rough" half mile he/she will face today.

Is a good approach.

Someone here must already know this and I AM HOPING is willing to share any Working guidelines for such a factor.

Like just use last 3, same distance category (sprint/route)

etc...

anyone?

[E-Man]

Your question to answer effectively I would have to write an entire book on the subject of pace. In saying that I will try to help on a few points.

Your approach is not bad and is what some teach. I would not only look just at the second call figure but the first call. The first call to me is just as important if not more important than the second call. So in your observation look to see what the lead horses are going to set and which one of those can handle the first call pace. You should be able to eliminate a few horses from win consideration just off the first call. Then you can eliminate some more off of your second call pace.


I would then look at your horses that you have left and see if they will be in running position to win in today's race. Look and see what the typical position is for your remaining horses are when they run well. Will they be there today?


Trying to put a figure on how many races to use are not to use is difficult at best. Obviously your not going to use turf races for dirt and you try not to use sprint for routes and routes for sprints though you can with some more practice. The pacelines can be adjusted for that.


It is always best to use the same distance as today's race--but it not always there for you. But buy saying use the last three at the distance etc.. might not always be the answer. The horse may not be the same as it was when you go deep in the past performance--but with that said--I get a lot of big price horse by going back in the past performances---there is usually a reason why I would do it and the reasons are to vast to explain in the post.


Keep doing what you doing and start incorporating first call times. Practice, practice, practice and you will start to see patterns.


I hope some of this helps.



Eric

[douglasw32]

"I hope some of this helps."

Thanks Eric-

All of it helps. :)

[E-Man]

Hi Douglas32,

If you can get more specific in a question I can help further. I will try to answer all your questions.

Eric

[betovernetcapper]

I've always thought the raw fractional times were useless. In addition to the daily variant, you have the track to track adjustment and if that weren't enough, the fractions are influenced by race shape and strategy. For me the margin for error is just over the top.
Speed points (30 years after inception) are still a great way to get a feel for how the race is going to look early.
RS-POS stands for running style and early position. Using this line of thought you determine each horses preferred running style -Early-Presser or Sustained.
Having done that, you can come up with a race shape. The race shape can be very useful in making a win or exacta decision.
Tom Brohamer as an article in Bet With The Best that really nails using RS-POS. If you click on the Amazon.com banner, you can by a used copy for $10 and PA gets credit for the link. :)

[andicap]

Couple more tips.

Be wary of early speed on the outside where there is good speed inside of him, especially when there are TWO good speeds inside. Three-wide early speed rarely wins.
Similarly a rail speed horse already has his hand forced. He pretty much has to leave because -- unlike the horses outside of him -- he can't see what the others are doing right out of the gate. Of course with a live rail and good speed, the 1 PP horse has that built in advantage especially with a jock who knows how to nurse that speed.
Main trouble with pace is that scenarios you envision will sometimes not happen. A horse gets a bad break or a "presser" goes hard out for the lead. The addition of blinkers is a good indication the horse may go for the lead. Or if a stable switches to known gate jock.

.

[E-Man]

Couple more tips.

Be wary of early speed on the outside where there is good speed inside of him, especially when there are TWO good speeds inside. Three-wide early speed rarely wins.
.

Great Tip to include Andicap-----Watch this outside horse in the next race if the same is not present---the last race will most likely look like crap from the 2nd. This is one of my favorite plays. There will be a comment like---dueled 3 or 4 wide while being behind a neck or head. Make sure that the horse dueled all the way to the 2nd call then backed off.

Eric

[Tom]

Good point. Pace points out a lot of excuse races.