Beyer's thoughts on DERBY

[karlskorner]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/othersports/2003696505_horse07.html

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for the link. The more I think about this, the more I anticipate betting against Street Sense in the future, not because I don't think he is a legitimate KY Derby, 3yo Champ-type of horse....he IS....but because of this:

His performance was so dominating that casual viewers of the Derby telecast might doubt that any of his rivals could stop Street Sense from sweeping the Triple Crown. But when stretch-runners benefit from a hot pace and a clean trip, they can look deceptively impressive. Fusaichi Pegasus was hailed as a superstar after his Derby rally in 2000 but proved a bust thereafter. Monarchos rallied to win the second-fastest Derby in history in 2001, but never won again.
...and the fact that his odds in the next couple of races will plummet compared to the generous 9/2 in the Derby.

[Overlay]

I agree, PA. I always hope for a Triple Crown winner, but I would imagine that value in the Preakness will lie elsewhere.

[GaryG]

By my figures the filly ran a slightly better race than SS. That final furlong was quite impressive. I hope she gets a shot in one of the two TC races.

[JustRalph]

We need another Magic Weisner!! He bought my wife a car. and I could use another one.............that gets better mileage :lol:

[cj]

Thanks for the link. The more I think about this, the more I anticipate betting against Street Sense in the future, not because I don't think he is a legitimate KY Derby, 3yo Champ-type of horse....he IS....but because of this:


...and the fact that his odds in the next couple of races will plummet compared to the generous 9/2 in the Derby.

Street Sense is the type horse I usually love to bet against. He is a closer that got a great trip, encountering no traffic while sitting behind a fast pace.

As a fan, I hope he wins, but that isn't where my money will be either.

[rastajenk]

Great trip or not, there are reasons why many Derby winners come back to do well in the Preak. The pretenders are weeded out, and everybody that ducked each other all spring finally got together to sort it all out. Looking back at who didn't win in Maryland after winning the Derb, you find Barbaro (obviously), TooSlow Giacomo, Monarchos (beaten by a clearly superior Point Given), and Fu (beaten by a freshened legitimate contender). Then you have to go back to nearly ancient history to find another. Maybe Hard Spun can steal one, and maybe Curlin can be the next big thing. I wouldn't expect either of them to slip in under the radar, and any value searching beyond those seems to me to be borderline desperate. The rest simply aren't going to be good enough.

[rrbauer]

Why is the horse faulted when it gets a good trip? Will that good trip make it run poorer next time? Give the jockey credit for the good trip. He's the one doing the positioning and parcelling out the available speed. But, don't penalize the horse.

Hard Spun also got a good trip. Out where he likes to be and in control of the pace. He was 2nd best.

Sedgefield also got a good trip. A perfect trip on the rail with dead aim on the leader into the far turn. He was 5th best and may not be good enough to get the 1 1/4 mile distance or could've been compromised by running on the turf at Keeneland after that hard effort in the Lanes End (won by Hard Spun).

I agree with rastajenk that it shouldn't be harder in the Preakness for Street Sense if he's up to it physically. It's not clear to me that this guy is up to a big race every couple weeks. He regressed after the Tampa race and it might be that he needs more time to recover from a big effort. That's the caveat for me.

If he does win the Preakness, I'll see you in the clubhouse, Section B, on June 9!

[cj]

I'm not faulting the horse. I think he is good, and the most likely winner. As a bettor though, I can't bet him next out. The odds won't justify the risk. It does not, however, mean I have to bet against him. It depends on the odds of the others.

Hard Spun will have a shorter distance and a different track configuration, two things which figure to bring the two much closer.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not faulting the horse. I think he is good, and the most likely winner. As a bettor though, I can't bet him next out. The odds won't justify the risk. It does not, however, mean I have to bet against him. It depends on the odds of the others.

Hard Spun will have a shorter distance and a different track configuration, two things which figure to bring the two much closer.

I cant wait to bet against hard spun in the next race, he wont get that LF trip again in the preakness, if he does he will have to go even faster.