Street Sense Spent

[bigmack]

As well as he ran with that great ride, he sure looked gassed after the race. I've seen tired horses but he looked like he wanted his blankie and long nap. Completely tired & spent.

[the_fat_man]

In the Bluegrass, he was knocked off stride and had to finish the race LEFTY.

Late in the Derby, as Borel smacked him with the whip, he changed back to LEFTY.

Interpret as you will.

This will be one interesting Preakness.

[Wiley]

Agree Mack. I thought in the interview with Borel immediately after the finish there might even be something wrong with SS as rough as he looked. To me on the arial view Hard Spun held his spot with SS, at least after the blow by, and might have been coming back a tad even after running tough fractions. Need to watch how SS comes up to the Preakness, am guessing no serious works though.

[Tom]

Savor the day, but I won't be talking about any triple crown winners until three days AFTER the Belmont...when the lab tests results come back!:lol:

[46zilzal]

I'd be spent too after what he accomplished.

[Greyfox]

If Street Sense wins the Triple Crown this year they
should put an asterisk * next to his name.
A pretty weak crop if you ask me.

[46zilzal]

They could have done that for Real Quiet, as I am forever glad that Solis caught him at Belmont by Victory Gallop. Now that one would have needed TWO asterisks.

[ELA]

If Street Sense wins the Triple Crown this year they
should put an asterisk * next to his name.
A pretty weak crop if you ask me.

Yeah, that's what they should do. Like the Bonds asterisk. Let' find fault and flaw if he wins the Triple Crown.

Spent or not, Nafzger took him to the track this morning!

Eric

[JustRalph]

I was surprised how much mud he took in the face when I saw the replay. I think that mud may have made him look much worse.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Couldn't come galloping back with Borel having his well deserved TV interview moments while on him, and then taking all the cheers & congrats from the fans on the outer rail. But I too thought Street Sense looked spent in the walk back. Either he was, or by having to take it slowly coming back for the interview, the horse just let himself calm down after the big effort.

[DanG]

If Street Sense wins the Triple Crown this year they
should put an asterisk * next to his name.
A pretty weak crop if you ask me.
Wow,

I’m with Eric on this one.

It’s not his fault who was born in the same year. The best 2yo’s and 3yo’s have had there cracks at him on our two biggest stages. Give the animal and connections their due.

[DanG]

I was surprised how much mud he took in the face when I saw the replay. I think that mud may have made him look much worse.
My daughter said the same thing Ralph.

It seemed like the Red seas parted and yet he resembled a mud wrestler.

[WJ47]

Savor the day, but I won't be talking about any triple crown winners until three days AFTER the Belmont...when the lab tests results come back!:lol:

LOL! :lol:

[freeneasy]

street sense had one single horse beat when he made his move on the rail, and to win going away from the 19th position made his closing style in the mile and a quarter kentucky derby just as and even that much more impressive then the same closing style he won with in his breeders cup victory at a mile and a sixteenth.
even if the horse would have swung out and went wide all the way around the home turn he still would have won in much convincing fashion.
after the race in the walk back to the winners circle i couldnt help but notice that street sense was playing around with his lead pony nudging and taking a few playful nips at him. he may have been winded but if this horse was tired then he sure had a good attitude about it.
destiny? race him up to november of his 5 year old season, win 3 breeders cup races, one in each of his 3,4, and 5yo seasons then put him out to stud for a 2, 2 1/2 million dollar cover. the shieks'll come a'run'n, as a matter of fact i would'nt be suprised if mr tafel has 20,30,40 million dollar offers spread all over his desk when he walks into his office on monday mourning. i say dont be suprised if (for some) and when (for me) he wins the triple crown, and that, all going away.

[Edward DeVere]

They could have done that for Real Quiet, as I am forever glad that Solis caught him at Belmont by Victory Gallop. Now that one would have needed TWO asterisks.

Gary Stevens rode Victory Gallop in the Belmont.

[point given]

street sense had one single horse beat when he made his move on the rail, and to win going away from the 19th position made his closing style in the mile and a quarter kentucky derby just as and even that much more impressive then the same closing style he won with in his breeders cup victory at a mile and a sixteenth.
even if the horse would have swung out and went wide all the way around the home turn he still would have won in much convincing fashion.
after the race in the walk back to the winners circle i couldnt help but notice that street sense was playing around with his lead pony nudging and taking a few playful nips at him. he may have been winded but if this horse was tired then he sure had a good attitude about it.
destiny? race him up to november of his 5 year old season, win 3 breeders cup races, one in each of his 3,4, and 5yo seasons then put him out to stud for a 2, 2 1/2 million dollar cover. the shieks'll come a'run'n, as a matter of fact i would'nt be suprised if mr tafel has 20,30,40 million dollar offers spread all over his desk when he walks into his office on monday mourning. i say dont be suprised if (for some) and when (for me) he wins the triple crown, and that, all going away.

For some reason, not even knowing the Preakness field, I just have a gut feel that it might be Street Senses' hardest of the 3 TC races. REasons - doubt the other connections will leave the rail open , ala BC Juvy, Tampa Derby, K Derby. Although Borel said that SS didnot handle the poly in the Bluegrass, he had to stay off the rail all around because the rail was death until the 4 path. Then in the stretch SS lost focus a couple of times and switched leads. So, what happens at Pimlico, he will never have run or trained on the surface and he might not get the rail trip. At CD the outside paths were not good and Bailey interviewed several jocks on espn early about the inside being the place to be, and all confirmed it. So, as an odds on prospect in the Preakness it will be an interesting propositon. Wiseguy signups start on monday !

BTW - the award for most fiscally irresponsible horse owner, goes to J. Sanders. Curlin sold for $3.5 mil Teufelsberg had an offering price of $3 mil and it was turned down. Curlin vs Teufels , gee , hard one there.

[freeneasy]

but it seems to me that as long as ss stays within his range and if he has to he will still be able to come out before the turn, go wide and have the field covered by the 1/8 pole.
from where ss is going to be when he starts his run theres not much chance he's going to get or be hemmed in so its a matter of weather the rest of the race looks the better from the inside or from the outside. basically its still going to be the same race as it was in the bcj and derby with not much tactical change taking place. stay your range, move, clear, go on, and if there are less then 20 horses in the race then so much the better and i base this analist on an earlier stated opinion that i believe in the derby if calvin borel had to come out and go all the way wide around the last turn then ss was still going to be to much horse for the rest of the field.
what might change is being that the preakness is a 1/16 of a mile closer to home and with pimlico's new surface the speed might hold up a little better but even if the speed is holding up in the preakness and hard spun is left alone on the lead, ss is still enough horse that borel can go ahead and lay up a little closer and make his move, go wide on the turn and overcome whatever is left for him to do.

[freeneasy]

street sense had one single horse beat when he made his move on the rail, and to win going away from the 19th position made his closing style in the mile and a quarter kentucky derby just as and even that much more impressive then the same closing style he won with in his breeders cup victory at a mile and a sixteenth.
even if the horse would have swung out and went wide all the way around the home turn he still would have won in much convincing fashion.
after the race in the walk back to the winners circle i couldnt help but notice that street sense was playing around with his lead pony nudging and taking a few playful nips at him. he may have been winded but if this horse was tired then he sure had a good attitude about it.
destiny? race him up to november of his 5 year old season, win 3 breeders cup races, one in each of his 3,4, and 5yo seasons then put him out to stud for a 2, 2 1/2 million dollar cover. the shieks'll come a'run'n, as a matter of fact i would'nt be suprised if mr tafel has 20,30,40 million dollar offers spread all over his desk when he walks into his office on monday mourning. i say dont be suprised if (for some) and when (for me) he wins the triple crown, and that, all going away.

i ment to say race him into his 4 yo season, win 3 cups, one each in his 2,3 and 4yo seasons not 3,4 and 5 yo seasons tho if charlie whittingham was training this horse he'd get his best season as a 5yo and that with a guarantee

[gIracing]

BTW - the award for most fiscally irresponsible horse owner, goes to J. Sanders. Curlin sold for $3.5 mil Teufelsberg had an offering price of $3 mil and it was turned down. Curlin vs Teufels , gee , hard one there.

someone ovbiously wanted to buy their way into the derby.

with that said 1) it's not always about the money. In an era where a horse wins 1 graded race and gets wisked away to stud, it's nice to see someone giving something back to the game.

2) i'm willing to bet that if he isn't sterile, in the long run, he will be worth a tad bit more than 3 mil in the longrun. you made it look like the going rate was to high for Tefulsburg, but in actually the people who bought Curlin got a STEAL at 3.5 mil, if you can call it that. Just like 1.9 mil for R2R looks like a bargin

[Pace Cap'n]

Street Sense went for a gallop on the track today...(Sunday)

tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38814 (http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38814)

[Edward DeVere]

with pimlico's new surface

The track at LAUREL was renovated, not Pimlico.

[BeatTheChalk]

Savor the day, but I won't be talking about any triple crown winners until three days AFTER the Belmont...when the lab tests results come back!:lol:

I am down here .... on the floor..... with my dog trying to revive me
over here
######## :lol: :jump: Perhaps one of theee great posts
in Triple Crown History. On a serious note ... The fact that SS went for
a mile walk and or jog Sunday morning means .....heck I dont know what
it means :bang:
Carl ( Nafzger ) has always been a strange " dude " so who knows. He
told the photogs and reporters to see him next week and make an
appointment

[ELA]

Just as an FYI -- not only did Street Sense go to the track on Sunday, but, and I cannot confirm any accuracy, it's been reported that Street Sense ate up full since the race and only lost 10 lbs! He may have looked spent to some people on TV, but it certainly doesn't sound like he was very spent.

I also think he might have come down quite a bit as Borel really took his time getting back to the winner's circle.

Anyway, doesn't matter -- great race!!!

Eric

[highnote]

They could have done that for Real Quiet, as I am forever glad that Solis caught him at Belmont by Victory Gallop. Now that one would have needed TWO asterisks.

I think Real Quiet is a very good horse. And he is turning out to be a good stallion. His $5,000 stud fee is a bargain. He's already producing stakes winners.

If I owned Street Sense, I would retire him to stud now and set his fee to at least $100,000. He won the most important race, so why risk an injury?

I love to see champions run, but he is a very valuable animal now.

That said, I hope he wins the TC, but he wouldn't if I owned him.

[betovernetcapper]

SS came back from the Tampa Derby "very tired and breathing like a locomotive". It could be that he just doesn't look good right after winning a race. :)

[46zilzal]

SS came back from the Tampa Derby "very tired and breathing like a locomotive". It could be that he just doesn't look good right after winning a race.
Imagine any runner that makes their move that late in a contest: they have already expended a lot of energy to stay in contact and then LATE, they have to find another gear. It makes lots of sense when they run that late...Read Huey Mahl. It's explained right there as he compares running around the block, first easily, and then fast early. When you OVERCOME a pace, you expend much more energy, USUALLY but not always, than setting one unless you are challenged hard early.

[DanG]

SS came back from the Tampa Derby "very tired and breathing like a locomotive". It could be that he just doesn't look good right after winning a race. :)
That is true Bet, I was there.

A blueprint of his BC explosion, except following that he got 4 months off. Should be very interesting how this effort sets him up for nearly 3 more miles in 5 weeks.

Hard to argue that Nafzger hasn’t played this like a violin so far. Just text book conditioning to peak an animal on a given day. :ThmbUp:

[Greyfox]

Andy has awarded Street Sense a 110 Beyer for the race.
Can he recuperate from that peak effort in 2 weeks?

[46zilzal]

He might be up against it at Baltimore as the Preakness is a hard one NOT to go to a front runner type. This is the place a Scat Daddy, Hard Spun or No Biz could run away from him as the track helps their style..

[DanG]

Imagine any runner that makes their move that late in a contest: they have already expended a lot of energy to stay in contact and then LATE, they have to find another gear. It makes lots of sense when they run that late...Read Huey Mahl. It's explained right there as he compares running around the block, first easily, and then fast early. When you OVERCOME a pace, you expend much more energy, USUALLY but not always, than setting one unless you are challenged hard early.
Help me out here 46,

Are you saying SS expended a lot of energy early in the Derby? :confused: If any horse should have needed an oxygen tent it was Hard Spun IMO.

BTW / Disclaimer: I didn’t see the gallop out / post race video on Street Sense to have any opinion on how he looked after the race.

[highnote]

I also read that SS was feeling so strong after the Derby that he jogged out an extra mile after the race!

I can see Hard Spun bouncing in the Preakness.

SS might need to be closer to the pace in Preakness -- or else might need a hot pace in front of him.

[ponyplayerdotca]

Historically, connections that have aspirations about winning the Kentucky Derby are focused on solely that. If they win it, then management of the horse becomes it's own animal, and often the horse is put into uneven training patterns to tackle the next two legs.

I doubt any trainer really wants to run a horse only 2 weeks later after the Kentucky Derby. But when you WIN the Derby, you have to come up with a plan to make it happen. I wonder if Michael Matz really wanted to run Barbaro in the Preakness last year (given Barbaro's need for 4-5 weeks between starts)? But he almost HAD to because he won the big race.

In STREET SENSE's case, he's seems to be the best talent of an arguably weak class of 2007. He was trained beautifully up to the big race by Nafzger, and he ran lights out. That's all the connections could have hoped for after the big run back in November in the BC Juvenile. Even if STREET SENSE fails to ever run a big race again, he is forever a KENTUCKY DERBY champion.

Now, the real work begins, as STREET SENSE has some new obstacles to overcome:

1) He won't have the Churchill Downs strip to run over for the Preakness.
2) He won't have the wide, sweeping turns to travel around at Pimlico.
3) He won't be getting a full 3-4 weeks rest in between top efforts as he is accustomed to.
4) He won't be cycling up to his "3rd off the layoff" as he did for the Derby.
5) He won't be seeing as many rivals in the starting gate, potentially meaning less chance of a scorching early pace (which could affect his rallying style).
6) He will have to face some new rivals that didn't run in the Derby who could be fresh and peaking.

All of these new angles come into play and will mean a completely different picture could emerge in the Preakness Stakes. If STREET SENSE is the talented horse we believe, then he will be able to overcome all of it and be one step away from the Triple Crown. But the hurdles he faces now (as every Derby champion does) are significant and tricky to deal with in just two short weeks.

I still think Nafzger was on the ball only getting 2 preps into him before the Derby. Maybe he has some energy in reserve to unleash in Baltimore. Let's hope so. It's been too long between TC winners for my liking, and it would make for a super Belmont.

[46zilzal]

Are you saying SS expended a lot of energy early in the Derby? :confused: If any horse should have needed an oxygen tent it was Hard Spun IMO.


no I'm not, he just had to OVERCOME the pace and that takes extra gas in the tank

[rastajenk]

"2) He won't have the wide, sweeping turns to travel around at Pimlico."

Where does this come from? Churchill is a one-mile track with one of the longest stretches in the country, so the straights have to be taking distance from the turns. Wide and sweeping? Never heard that one before, although I agree the turns at Pimlico have a reputation for being tight. (Could be a project for The Mythbusters.) That should work to Street Sense's favor, as he seems to be athletic and agile enough to handle the second turn at a good rate when others are tiring and fanning out.

[highnote]

I never considered CD having wide, sweeping turns, either. The long stretch makes for tighter turns.

Belmont has wide, sweeping turns. Which should benefit Street Sense. The front runners can navigate the turns more quickly at Belmont and therefore will use up a lot of energy early.

[JPinMaryland]

ONly if they're not under some control of the jock. One would think the turns at Belmont would not favor SS for the same reason that they would favor him at Pimlico.

[betovernetcapper]

That is true Bet, I was there.

:ThmbUp:

:lol: I know-Your the guy I was quoting.

[DanG]

no I'm not, he just had to OVERCOME the pace and that takes extra gas in the tank
I don’t follow you how 20+ back is "overcoming" the pace. That’s what human milers run rabbits for when attempting to break records.

I think we just apply the terminology differently; to each his own my friend. :ThmbUp:

[DanG]

"2) He won't have the wide, sweeping turns to travel around at Pimlico."

Where does this come from? Churchill is a one-mile track with one of the longest stretches in the country, so the straights have to be taking distance from the turns. Wide and sweeping? Never heard that one before, although I agree the turns at Pimlico have a reputation for being tight. (Could be a project for The Mythbusters.) That should work to Street Sense's favor, as he seems to be athletic and agile enough to handle the second turn at a good rate when others are tiring and fanning out.
It’s no myth IMHO.

Years back NBC projected the CD oval onto Pimico to show there was no difference. Anyone who has played them both knows it’s just not the case. The major difference is the banking, especially into the first turn.

[john del riccio]

I don’t follow you how 20+ back is "overcoming" the pace. That’s what human milers run rabbits for when attempting to break records.

I think we just apply the terminology differently; to each his own my friend. :ThmbUp:

Dan,

I looked at how SS acted on the way back to the winners circle. My eye is better than average and I think he came back fine. I don't think he was spent at all.

John

[Cratos]

As well as he ran with that great ride, he sure looked gassed after the race. I've seen tired horses but he looked like he wanted his blankie and long nap. Completely tired & spent.

Many years ago, one of the greatest thoroughbreds ever and a tremendous closer would look like he was ready for a “vacation” after a race, but he would always bounced back with a sparkling performance. That thoroughbred was the great Forego. I am not saying or implying that Street Sense is another Forego or even in the same class, but what I am saying two weeks of rest can do wonders for a race horse.

[bigmack]

given Barbaro's need for 4-5 weeks between starts?
How were you able to determine that he HAD to, being that he was undefeated?

[bigmack]

I don't think he was spent at all.
You'd be hard pressed to convince many of that. Perhaps he wasn't completely spent but to say he wasn't spent at all is a bit of a stretch.

[point given]

You make no reference to the rail trip he got over a drying out wet surface . He didn't get it in the bluegrass and he lost as he lost focus in the stretch. The rail was the place to be in the Derby and in the BC Juvy and he got a duplicate trip over his home course in his desired path. This is the more important factor to me. Calvin, has he ever raced over the Pimlico surface ? Will the other jocks let him have a rail trip from here on out ? or will opposing trainers tell their jocks," whatever you do, don't let him comeup the rail on you " Larry Jones made mention of the fact that Pino made SS go around HS down the stretch. He was the only other trainer who had a plan, knew what to expect and stuck to it , other than Carl and Calvin. For some reason I feel that SS is vulnerable, and it isnot such a weak crop, as the others were spinning their wheels ,where SS had the good portion of the track and a trouble free trip. I hope we do get a triple crown winner ; but I will still handicap and try to beat him, just like Larry Jones will with Hard Spun.

Question, ? If SS loses the Preakness , will Nafzger run him in the Belmont ? or save him for the Travers or Haskell and a fall BC campaign ?

[Richie]

Why is it that Street Sense always gets this rail skimming trip on the so-called bias and no one else ever does? ;)

[46zilzal]

I don’t follow you how 20+ back is "overcoming" the pace. That’s what human milers run rabbits for when attempting to break records.


Simply stated: if one passes horses that are making the pace, and the passing horse in question did not contribute to said pace, he OVERCOMES it....

An idea first discussed by Quirin.

[GaryG]

Why is it that Street Sense always gets this rail skimming trip on the so-called bias and no one else ever does? ;)Calvin Bo-RAIL.

[DanG]

Simply stated: if one passes horses that are making the pace, and the passing horse in question did not contribute to said pace, he OVERCOMES it....An idea first discussed by Quirin.
:jump:

Thanks 46…

"Simply stated" to a simple person I can assure you. I still don’t follow you (or apparently Quirin), but let’s move on before we bore people with semantics...

[ELA]

Dan,

I looked at how SS acted on the way back to the winners circle. My eye is better than average and I think he came back fine. I don't think he was spent at all.

John

From what I've been told, John is a well respected bloodstock agent and consultant who has been around and knows his way around a horse. I think when making a judgement like this you can only look to certain things. Your knowledge of the specific horse is one, and in this case I don't think anyone has spent a lot of time in the barn around Street Sense, know his demeanor, characteristics, etc. Another element you could look at is your own experience, and in that respect I think there are "qualified" and "unqualified" opinions. In this case I think a trainer, bloodstock agent, perhaps a professional gambler who specifically looks at this, or someone intimately involved in the business might have more insight.

Another aspect would be how the horse "ate up" and whether he "off his feed" or "got knocked off his feed" or something of the like. His weight would also be included in this. If it's true and this colt only lost 10 pounds, I would say "WOW" because that is so insiginificant, it's kind of scary. I don't know if Nafzger is included, but I do know certain trainers who weigh their horses and follow weight closely.

A couple of people who saw him on the track on Sunday said he was "on his toes" and "bright eyed" and that kind of thing. I'll reserve any opinion until I speak with one of a few people who I know were there.

Eric

[john del riccio]

From what I've been told, John is a well respected bloodstock agent and consultant who has been around and knows his way around a horse. I think when making a judgement like this you can only look to certain things. Your knowledge of the specific horse is one, and in this case I don't think anyone has spent a lot of time in the barn around Street Sense, know his demeanor, characteristics, etc. Another element you could look at is your own experience, and in that respect I think there are "qualified" and "unqualified" opinions. In this case I think a trainer, bloodstock agent, perhaps a professional gambler who specifically looks at this, or someone intimately involved in the business might have more insight.

Another aspect would be how the horse "ate up" and whether he "off his feed" or "got knocked off his feed" or something of the like. His weight would also be included in this. If it's true and this colt only lost 10 pounds, I would say "WOW" because that is so insiginificant, it's kind of scary. I don't know if Nafzger is included, but I do know certain trainers who weigh their horses and follow weight closely.

A couple of people who saw him on the track on Sunday said he was "on his toes" and "bright eyed" and that kind of thing. I'll reserve any opinion until I speak with one of a few people who I know were there.

Eric

Eric,

You have owned horses as I have and in all that time have you ever heard of sending a horse out the day after a race (and a winning one going 1 1/4 at that) for a mile gallop ?

Most every trainer I have ever had has given them 3 days walking in the shed before heading back to the track. I find this move very interesting indeed. He must be a sound as a doorknob.

John

[highnote]

Street Sense ran the Derby kind of the way he ran the Bluegrass. He cantered for most of the race and then really picked it up going into the far turn.

He only ran hard for 5 or 6 furlongs. The Derby was like a workout for him.

That mile work the day after the Derby must mean that the Derby was a piece of cake for him.

I wonder though, did he really beat a weak field? Maybe every trainer was saving their horses for the big dance, so none of them ran their horses too hard before the Derby.

One more thing... I make final time speed ratings for U.S. races which are based on Nick Mordin's method of projected daily variants.

I made the daily variant for Derby day very low -- which means it was an extremely fast track.

I gave SS a 93 speed rating in the BC Juv. I gave him a 90 in KY Derby. I don't think we've seen the best of him, yet.

I gave Hard Spun an 88 in the Derby. His best previous number was an 86 in his G3 LeComte race at FG on Jan 13.

Curlin's numbers look like this Derby 84, ArkDerby 83, Rebel 86 and MSW 85. Very consistent horse. He could still improve -- maybe a 90 in Preakness. Probably not good enough to beat SS.

I look for Hard Spun to bounce to the moon and back in Preakness.

If you're interested in my speed figures for Derby let me know. Take them with a grain of salt. :D

[john del riccio]

Street Sense ran the Derby kind of the way he ran the Bluegrass. He cantered for most of the race and then really picked it up going into the far turn.

He only ran hard for 5 or 6 furlongs. The Derby was like a workout for him.

That mile work the day after the Derby must mean that the Derby was a piece of cake for him.

I wonder though, did he really beat a weak field? Maybe every trainer was saving their horses for the big dance, so none of them ran their horses too hard before the Derby.

Sweet,

I don't think he beat a weak field. There was no Barbaro or Bernardini in there but its not like he beat bad horses. Many people thought Curlin was a freak before the Derby; I was on the fence because he hadn't faced any quality 2 turn horses in his two big wins. My choice Circular Quay was favored in every start and had won over a million dollars without winning a BC race. Hard Spun layed down the guantlet and no one could muster the needed challenge early and he didn't exactly throw in the towel when SS came to him.

That mile gallop the day after the Derby is as bizzare to me as Hard Spun drilling 57.2 5 days befoe the Derby and look what he did....

John

[ELA]

Eric,

You have owned horses as I have and in all that time have you ever heard of sending a horse out the day after a race (and a winning one going 1 1/4 at that) for a mile gallop ?

Most every trainer I have ever had has given them 3 days walking in the shed before heading back to the track. I find this move very interesting indeed. He must be a sound as a doorknob.

John

John, I have different trainers who do different things, have different methodologies, etc. -- but no, of course it's not standard operating proceedure to go to the track the day after a race (and after a to date lifetime performance in the KY Derby at that!)

Anyway, I've have heard of taking a horse to the track the next day, and if one of my trainers did it, I wouldn't know about it. I liked hearing about Nafzger's theory on this however. It was interesting.

In these types od situations, I think only a trainer is qualified to truly give a qualified opinion. All the rest is nothing more than supposition. We might as well be talking about cardiac surgery -- that is, if none of us are cardiac surgeons, LOL.

Eric

[46zilzal]

I don’t follow you how 20+ back is "overcoming" the pace. That’s what human milers run rabbits for when attempting to break records.

I think we just apply the terminology differently

If you don't follow me, give me an alternative explanation which I can understand.

Disagreement usually follows with an alternative explanation or nothing is understood, is it not? Isn't that the reason people discuss things here? I thought it was.

[46zilzal]

J
. All the rest is nothing more than supposition. We might as well be talking about cardiac surgery -- that is, if none of us are cardiac surgeons, LOL.


I believe we have a member (Witch Doctor) who fits that bill who can discuss the anterior descending and the circumflex vessels, the intima, and things like Mockenberg's medial calcific sclerosis

[NYPlayer]

Street Sense ran the Derby kind of the way he ran the Bluegrass. He cantered for most of the race and then really picked it up going into the far turn.

He only ran hard for 5 or 6 furlongs. The Derby was like a workout for him.

That mile work the day after the Derby must mean that the Derby was a piece of cake for him.

I wonder though, did he really beat a weak field? Maybe every trainer was saving their horses for the big dance, so none of them ran their horses too hard before the Derby.

One more thing... I make final time speed ratings for U.S. races which are based on Nick Mordin's method of projected daily variants.

I made the daily variant for Derby day very low -- which means it was an extremely fast track.

I gave SS a 93 speed rating in the BC Juv. I gave him a 90 in KY Derby. I don't think we've seen the best of him, yet.

I gave Hard Spun an 88 in the Derby. His best previous number was an 86 in his G3 LeComte race at FG on Jan 13.

Curlin's numbers look like this Derby 84, ArkDerby 83, Rebel 86 and MSW 85. Very consistent horse. He could still improve -- maybe a 90 in Preakness. Probably not good enough to beat SS.

I look for Hard Spun to bounce to the moon and back in Preakness.

If you're interested in my speed figures for Derby let me know. Take them with a grain of salt. :D

The Sheets have posted their numbers - SS was awarded a 3+, a quarter point better than the Blue Grass (3") He got a 2- in the BC Juvy.

Hard Spun got a 3" I believe his prior top was around 4" or 5. He was one of the horses that had a strong pattern where you would expect a new peak and the move to a 3" looks natural and is a good fit to the pattern. I would expect a small bounce in the Preak, but he might pair up.

Curlin bounced to a 6-. Nothing unexpected there.

AGS bounced marginally to a 6 (he had a top of 3 and last race was 5). That was a bit of a surprise as his pattern basically looked good, and I know Len Friedman thought so too, but really it could have gone either way.

CQ got a 5 (a bounce from his 2" top). Again, not unexpected.

As is typical in the Derby, lots of horses wasted their efforts by running wide, but the most intriguing thing is the winning number. Your numbers parallel The Sheets in that SS didn't get past his 2yo top. In Sheet Think, a horse that hasn't surpassed its 2yo top is generally viewed with suspicion. It's been six months and the horse has had three starts, so it could be that that's as close as he gets for a while. In other words, it might be time for a bounce. I confess, I'm a little perplexed because he's an awfully consistent horse - so far, and any horse that runs a 2- as a two yo, ought to have a zero top in him. Maybe he does, but it could take a little while to show up.

It looks like it's going to be a a very interesting Preakness.

[bigmack]

Does the first step in using The Sheets involve becoming indoctrinated into thinking about bouncing?

[NYPlayer]

Does the first step in using The Sheets involve becoming indoctrinated into thinking about bouncing?

Yes, pretty much! It's one of the easiest concepts a newbie can use right away. However, further progress demands that you accept The Sheet numbers as the absolute truth - which I do. I've completely succumbed!

Actually though, using sheets isn't just about bounces. It's about predicting change.

[highnote]

The Sheets have posted their numbers - SS was awarded a 3+, a quarter point better than the Blue Grass (3") He got a 2- in the BC Juvy.

I'm still trying to figure out how Ragozin gave him almost the same number in the Bluegrass as in the Derby. I thought Ragozin didn't project figures.

I used Mordin Projected Daily Variants to make my figures. The Bluegrass was just plain slow.

Maybe Ragozin is using a different method for Polytrack than Dirt?

[witchdoctor]

I believe we have a member (Witch Doctor) who fits that bill who can discuss the anterior descending and the circumflex vessels, the intima, and things like Mockenberg's medial calcific sclerosis


BINGO :) :)

[NYPlayer]

I'm still trying to figure out how Ragozin gave him almost the same number in the Bluegrass as in the Derby. I thought Ragozin didn't project figures.

I used Mordin Projected Daily Variants to make my figures. The Bluegrass was just plain slow.

Maybe Ragozin is using a different method for Polytrack than Dirt?

They made an "approximate" number because of the slow pace. The actual number was slower, but in consideration of the fact that the extremely slow early pace compromised any chance for the runners to make up that speed late in the race, they gave the horses a better number.

[highnote]

They made an "approximate" number because of the slow pace. The actual number was slower, but in consideration of the fact that the extremely slow early pace compromised any chance for the runners to make up that speed late in the race, they gave the horses a better number.


Sounds like they made Quinn style turf number.