Kentucky Derby: Post Meant Toast?

[Greyfox]

12 Races.
The Winner came from the 7 Post or less, in every Race.
Without knocking Street Sense, and the inside ride by Borel,
were any of the runners outside of that post compromised by the track today?
Your call.

[PaceAdvantage]

If you want to get all conspiratorial about it, you could ponder the "home team advantage" concept. Every track has a home team. A personal example of this was in Easy Goer's Belmont Stakes: EG, Ogden Phipps and Shug McGaughey were the home team vs. Sunday Silence going for the TC.

Easy Goer didn't like an off track. It poured rain so much the night before the Belmont that year, that it was the one time I can vividly remember my parents' basement taking on water. They live minutes from Belmont.

Yet, the track was labeled FAST for the FIRST RACE! We were all shocked when we got to the track that morning.....

Who was the home team in Saturday's Derby? You can't get any more home team than Nafzger and Borel. Plus it didn't hurt that SS had a great shot to win.

Therefore, knowing this, and knowing Borel's riding style, is it any wonder the inside was a nice place to be Saturday?

Not that there's anything wrong with that. Home teams always have advantages.

[Greyfox]

If you want to get all conspiratorial about it, you could ponder the "home team advantage" concept.
.

Give your head a shake. There's nothing conspiratorial in the thread.
The question has major implications for The Preakness and The Belmont.
If outside runners were compromised it may well be that their races were over before they even left the gate.
On a fairer track, a different pace scenario would have developed between Hard Spun and Stormello. As it was Hard Spun looked much the bettor on Saturday.
Ain't gonna happen next out.

[Tom]

I don't think you can blame most of those miserable performances yesterday on post postiiotn - that was just a pack of dogs. Kudos to the top 2, but they didn't beat much. Did you see how SS just floated by everyting like they were standing still? Many were! Turning for home in 20 horses filed, you should be looking for an opening, but half the filed was looking for a bench.

Talk about getting the distance or not, I doubt many can get the distance to Pimlico!

Bad crop.
Bring on the handicap division.
Oh, wait, is there one anymore?:rolleyes:

[JPinMaryland]

The question has major implications for The Preakness and The Belmont.If outside runners were compromised it may well be that their races were over before they even left the gate.

But that doesnt really have to do with a path bias does it? It is simply ground loss experienced by any runner who goes wide on any surface whether it plays fair or not.

ANd yes, there are lots of bet backs that can be made based on horses that had to go wide in the derby. Little Current being a classic case.

Not sure if there's any horse that might be a candidate for this but I havent looked at the chart in any depth. The only horses I can recall that went wide simply ran out of gas e.g. Great Hunter and Scat Daddy. Tiago I think??

[JPinMaryland]

.. that was just a pack of dogs. Kudos to the top 2, but they didn't beat much. Did you see how SS just floated by everyting like they were standing still? Many were! Turning for home in 20 horses filed, you should be looking for an opening, but half the filed was looking for a bench...


Yeah. Lot of horses went out fast and crashed and burned, Stormello, Cowtown, The Teuf...The half mile time was sizzling, but HS managed to slow it down on the back stretch to do the mile in a modest 1:37.

WHo says Pino doesnt have a sense of timing? (Heard after his 5f workout)

[Greyfox]

Three of Pletcher's best hopes were outside.
Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Any Given Saturday.
Two of their riders are reporting trouble with the track.

Interesting article at
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18510702/


Todd Pletcher said:
"Without seeing a replay, I don’t think I could see any major excuses for my horses,” he said.
But he added that Edgar Prado, the rider aboard Scat Daddy, told him the horse “was just spinning his wheels . . . (and) couldn’t get hold of the track at all.”

John Velazquez, the jockey aboard Circular Quay, said his mount had a decent trip, but also didn’t handle the track well in the early stages of the race.

[Greyfox]

From # 12
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (10th): "He didn't handle the track. I thought he'd run better than that.'' - trainer Barclay Tagg.

From # 20
GREAT HUNTER (13th): "My horse wasn't handling the track at all. The winner handled the track and the rest of them were struggling. That was about the story.'' - jockey Corey Nakatani.

Yada. Yada. Yada. It sounds lame duck. But we are talking 12 races Saturday
not just one.

[Kelso]

20 horses ... first 5 finishers are #7, #8, #2, #5 (29-1), #1 (58-1). Is this at all typical of the Derby? (Suggests to me that results can be very different in the Preakness based on gate position alone.)

[JPinMaryland]

Hmm that last post and subsequent question has me thinking. I havent done an official count of all the horses that have hit the board by post position in recent years, but it seems that there should be a decent mix of horses with most of the distribution in the 3-15 slots...

But that's interesting that the top 5 came from the first 7 slots; more interesting than just noting the winners of the races. Not sure what the statistical odds would be..

[Greyfox]

Hmm that last post and subsequent question has me thinking. I havent done an official count of all the horses that have hit the board by post position in recent years, but it seems that there should be a decent mix of horses with most of the distribution in the 3-15 slots...

But that's interesting that the top 5 came from the first 7 slots; more interesting than just noting the winners of the races. Not sure what the statistical odds would be..

And how many 20 horse races will you have to compare it with?:lol:

[JPinMaryland]

:confused: You could simply assume a random distribution of board hits by Post POsition, couldnt you?? And see how far from normal this one was...

Alternately you could look at all the fields in the Ky derby that are large fields. Theyve had large fields in this race since at least the 1920s..

Maybe I am missing something..

[Greyfox]

:confused:
Maybe I am missing something..

When asked about Curlin's chances, considering that no runner had ever won by not racing as a 2 year old,
Asmussen replied:
"We're not running against history,"
"We're running against who they load up."

You can run whatever you want through your programs.
Yesterday's race is all you need to look at. It's just that simple.

The 20 runners were running against the track.
No runner from the 7 hole out in 12 consecutive races won.
Run that stat through your computer.

[JPinMaryland]

I goes I just dont get it. You asked a question about comparing outcomes, you suggested that there was nothing to compare it to. :confused:

[Pace Cap'n]

No runner from the 7 hole out in 12 consecutive races won.
Run that stat through your computer.

Over the remaining 11 races, only 22 starters left from a post position higher than 7. That doesn't allow for many chances.

[Greyfox]

Over the remaining 11 races, only 22 starters left from a post position higher than 7. That doesn't allow for many chances.

Oops. Right. 5 won from post 7.

[PaceAdvantage]

Give your head a shake. There's nothing conspiratorial in the thread.

Huh?

[PaceAdvantage]

Run that stat through your computer.

Again, huh?

[Greyfox]

Huh?

At no point had I thought anything was conspiratorial.
My comments were simply related to how the track dries after a deluge.
For whatever reason the inside becomes the place to be.

[Fred]

The first race had 6 horses

The second race had 7 betting entries

The third race had 9

The fifth had 9

The sixth had 7

The 11th had 9 betting entries

The 12th had 8


Freddy

[wpayne1]

i agree post meant toast my long shot horses were both wide Dominican, and ags. with street sence. Dominican wasted energy just to get to two wide on first turn, saw that:mad: and told wife we are cook no way does domy have anything at end of race, same for ags. but i was right with street sence, no one was beating that horse rail or no rail, give it to hard spun who ran a great race stayed on rail on last turning know that SS like rail but SS got good break and split horses with head of steam. looks like preakness might have some good speed horses in it, to go with some good closers,should be a fun race to watch.

[PaceAdvantage]

At no point had I thought anything was conspiratorial.

I don't think I stated that you did. I just put it out there for consideration as a reply to your thread.

"If you want to get all conspiratorial...." meaning maybe you do, maybe you don't.....