"Qualitative" Derby Analysis

[the_fat_man]

I think I've watched enough tape. Time to offer some opinions. Here's a list of my contenders, in order of preference.

1) Curlin --- has made incredible strides in only 3 races. What a pleasure watching this horse's races. He's incredibly smooth and athletic. Better form last out than just about anything else in the field and yet there are experience concerns by the intelligencia. Albarado seems to fit him perfectly. He breaks, has a clear run to the turn, settles outside and behind the pace, and takes off when ready.

The Rest

2) Street Sense --- almost as athletic and explosive as Curlin. He's supposed to draw on AGS, however. Not as good as the top choice.

3) Scat Daddy --- soft spot for this hardknocker, as he's made me some money --- but he's not as good as the top 2. Nice to see him not getting needlessly abused now that Prado is up.

4) Tiago --- couldn't figure out why he ran so badly in the Lewis and then was able to put in a very nice effort in the SD. Then I watched all his races with Espinoza up. Why is this idiot allowed to ride young horses? The best of the closers. PRobably gets a piece. Not good enough to beat the top 2, however.

Longshot

Storm in May ---- had a protracted run with significant ground gain in the AD --the only horse other than Curlin to gain in the 3rd and 4th quarters ---then he did a Uturn the last 1/8th. Just a hunch. Hopefully, he doesn't break in badly, as he did in the AD, and take Curlin out. (Zanjero being the shield.)


Why I don't Like

1) Hard Spun ---- outgamed for 3rd in the OP stake by a horse that didn't change leads. Terrible form turning for home in the Lane's End. He struggled to change, like a cheap claimer and was under too much pressure to the wire. This after effortlessly sitting just off the pace and moving to the lead in hand. Only beat (the stride challenged) Sedgefield by < 3 lengths. Figures to sit a similar trip with the top 2. NOt good enough. More importantly, not pretty enough --ugly stride.

2) AGS --- gave SS all he wanted in Tampa, then was rushed back in the Wood where he faced an impossible task: a typically wide trip, on an inside bias. He's better than NoCOunt but he'll get another wide trip. Realistically, how is this horse supposed to win when he'll sit a worse trip than Curlin and SS? MR WIDE is up.

3) Circular Quay --- surprised the hell out of me when he actually RAN down in FG. But, he doesn't win if Ketchikan doesn't get a retarded ride. Also, notice that the other closers in the race did do some mild running: Zanjero (MR WIDE was biding his time on this one), Birdbirdistheword, and Imacrazyguy. The latter 2 didn't pick up their feet in the Florida Derby, however. Have always thought that SD is better. The only way he wins is if everyone else gets burned out. NO

4) Cowtown Cat --- incredibly, there's support for this plug. I cashed with him in the Gotham, where he sat a perfect trip. Then he sat a better, BIASED trip at Hawthorne. Maybe if they scraped the rail and he somehow got on it, and the lead, AND the key contenders FELL DOWN, he might get a piece. Anyone thinking this horse has a shot to win the race really should give up the game. Seriously.

5) NoBiz --- tired of beating him. He ran straight last out but the jock didn't really seem to notice --why would he, when it takes the trainer 5 races to realize that the horse is lugging in bigtime in the stretch. (Is there a worse jockey getting on good horses than Cornelio?) BIG TIME BIAS trip int he Wood. This horse is so bad that even DrugS has stopped plugging him (DrugS was first on AGS, it need be pointed out). Enough said.

6) Great Hunter ---- If Gomez continues straight on Sam P (plenty of room MR WIDE) rather than waiting and swinging around him, he might've gotten BENT OVER in the Lewis. What works for him is if there are a couple of PREMATURE turn moves and he just happens to be the horse hanging around in perfect position as the wire comes up. Of course, CQ would typically be sucking up just behind him. :D

7) Zanjero --- getting some respect lately off the Bluegrass effort. Problem is, I expected this guy to be able to run a bit earlier in the year BUT he turned out to be a PLUG.


This race will be run similarly to last year's. The athletic horses (Curlin, SS, AGS, SD, HS) will sit just off the pace and control the race in the lane. Count on the 1-2 finishers getting this trip. The late running horses will probably complete the exotics.

[JPinMaryland]

So why the change on Tiago, less than 24 hrs. ago you said he was lucky to win the SA derby? SHould I wait for the afternoon edition before making my wagers?

[the_fat_man]

Not a turnaround at all. Still think he was 2nd best in the race BUT his sustained gain cannot be ignored. If you look at the chart, it's better than anything CQ has put in.

And watching his previous races AGAIN I realized that this horse needed a break (don't they all) from Espinosa.

But let's be realistic: this horse is not a win, and probably not a place, contender

[Indulto]

Longshot

Storm in May ---- had a protracted run with significant ground gain in the AD --the only horse other than Curlin to gain in the 3rd and 4th quarters ---then he did a Uturn the last 1/8th. Just a hunch. Hopefully, he doesn't break in badly, as he did in the AD, and take Curlin out. (Zanjero being the shield.)

Why I don't Like

1) Hard Spun ---- outgamed for 3rd in the OP stake by a horse that didn't change leads. Terrible form turning for home in the Lane's End. He struggled to change, like a cheap claimer and was under too much pressure to the wire. This after effortlessly sitting just off the pace and moving to the lead in hand. Only beat (the stride challenged) Sedgefield by < 3 lengths. Figures to sit a similar trip with the top 2. NOt good enough. More importantly, not pretty enough --ugly stride.

2) AGS --- gave SS all he wanted in Tampa, then was rushed back in the Wood where he faced an impossible task: a typically wide trip, on an inside bias. He's better than NoCOunt but he'll get another wide trip. Realistically, how is this horse supposed to win when he'll sit a worse trip than Curlin and SS? MR WIDE is up.

3) Circular Quay --- surprised the hell out of me when he actually RAN down in FG. But, he doesn't win if Ketchikan doesn't get a retarded ride. Also, notice that the other closers in the race did do some mild running: Zanjero (MR WIDE was biding his time on this one), Birdbirdistheword, and Imacrazyguy. The latter 2 didn't pick up their feet in the Florida Derby, however. Have always thought that SD is better. The only way he wins is if everyone else gets burned out. NO

4) Cowtown Cat --- incredibly, there's support for this plug. I cashed with him in the Gotham, where he sat a perfect trip. Then he sat a better, BIASED trip at Hawthorne. Maybe if they scraped the rail and he somehow got on it, and the lead, AND the key contenders FELL DOWN, he might get a piece. Anyone thinking this horse has a shot to win the race really should give up the game. Seriously.

5) NoBiz --- tired of beating him. He ran straight last out but the jock didn't really seem to notice --why would he, when it takes the trainer 5 races to realize that the horse is lugging in bigtime in the stretch. (Is there a worse jockey getting on good horses than Cornelio?) BIG TIME BIAS trip int he Wood. This horse is so bad that even DrugS has stopped plugging him (DrugS was first on AGS, it need be pointed out). Enough said.

6) Great Hunter ---- If Gomez continues straight on Sam P (plenty of room MR WIDE) rather than waiting and swinging around him, he might've gotten BENT OVER in the Lewis. What works for him is if there are a couple of PREMATURE turn moves and he just happens to be the horse hanging around in perfect position as the wire comes up. Of course, CQ would typically be sucking up just behind him. :D

7) Zanjero --- getting some respect lately off the Bluegrass effort. Problem is, I expected this guy to be able to run a bit earlier in the year BUT he turned out to be a PLUG.


This race will be run similarly to last year's. The athletic horses (Curlin, SS, AGS, SD, HS) will sit just off the pace and control the race in the lane. Count on the 1-2 finishers getting this trip. The late running horses will probably complete the exotics.Well, tfm, I like what you like other than Storm In May and some you don't (like you care :lol: ).

I never liked CC and I'm going to let you talk me out of CQ, HS, and GH in the 2nd vertical slot. I think you're wrong about NLS and I really like Dominican on the wet track under Berjerano. Have doubts about Tiago with mud in his eye.

Good luck, my friend. :ThmbUp:

[JPinMaryland]

I think the fatman sees this race as being won from the front end. Do you have a guess as to what the early fractions will be?

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On the break, it looks like a likely spot for trouble will be at PP 4/5 and maybe PP 10 as well. Also 19/20 seem to find early trouble sometimes, too.

***

I sure hope Bwana Bull isnt sitting on a big one. That would hurt a lot of tickets. :ThmbDown:

***

Might want to wait for the post parade before betting on Dominican they say he's lost a lot of weight.

***

Tiago should be able to settle in nicely starting from the aux. gate with that gap between 14 and 15.

***

I guess Hard Spun/No Biz will be front runners if these PPs make any sense at all

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Interesting that a qualitative Derby analysis comes up with the same top pick as using the best last race Beyer

[jonnielu]

I think I've watched enough tape. Time to offer some opinions. Here's a list of my contenders, in order of preference.

Not Bad, but you might want to tighten it up a little with some consideration for the 1 1/4 distance and the mud flinging conditions.

1) Curlin --- has made incredible strides in only 3 races. What a pleasure watching this horse's races. He's incredibly smooth and athletic. Better form last out than just about anything else in the field and yet there are experience concerns by the intelligencia. Albarado seems to fit him perfectly. He breaks, has a clear run to the turn, settles outside and behind the pace, and takes off when ready.

True, Curlin has the goods required of a champion, the evenness of his running action is almost scarry as he lays out his ability to run from gate to wire. He is blessed today with all of the advantages of the #2 post.

He has yet to be looked in the eye during a stretch run, and conditions, along with his advantageous position will force some other entrants to put the heat on him early. Having passed all of the champion tests so far, he will have to reach into the tank to pass this one.

If he brings more then what we have seen thus far, he can again get his nose on the wire first.

The Rest

2) Street Sense --- almost as athletic and explosive as Curlin. He's supposed to draw on AGS, however. Not as good as the top choice.

While, it is true that in a huge field running for 2 million dollars in the most prestigeous of horse races, everybody has some shot, we would still expect it to be a champion to emerge first. Champions don't get nosed out, except by other champions. Five champions did not go to the post for the Bluegrass, but, five horses displayed the fact that they are relatively equal in ability to run. Look at this pack for any superfecta speculations.

3) Scat Daddy --- soft spot for this hardknocker, as he's made me some money --- but he's not as good as the top 2. Nice to see him not getting needlessly abused now that Prado is up.

He has shown early that he has the championship goods also. He has been bested, only to come back to prevail again. A hardknocker, reluctant to take no for an answer. He is up against it today, starting from the 14 hole, he may have to spend some of his superior ability to get mid-pack for the first turn.

If he does this, look for him to empty his tank in championship style as he runs down his rivals in a real stretch battle of champions.

4) Tiago --- couldn't figure out why he ran so badly in the Lewis and then was able to put in a very nice effort in the SD. Then I watched all his races with Espinoza up. Why is this idiot allowed to ride young horses? The best of the closers. PRobably gets a piece. Not good enough to beat the top 2, however.

Racing, at CD today. His best shot is to go hell for leather for the wire and hope that those of higher ability get caught up in traffic.

Longshot

Storm in May ---- had a protracted run with significant ground gain in the AD --the only horse other than Curlin to gain in the 3rd and 4th quarters ---then he did a Uturn the last 1/8th. Just a hunch. Hopefully, he doesn't break in badly, as he did in the AD, and take Curlin out. (Zanjero being the shield.)

Everybody's got a shot, SiM also needs to go hell for leather for the wire, and throw as much mud as possible while doing it.


Why I don't Like

1) Hard Spun ---- outgamed for 3rd in the OP stake by a horse that didn't change leads. Terrible form turning for home in the Lane's End. He struggled to change, like a cheap claimer and was under too much pressure to the wire. This after effortlessly sitting just off the pace and moving to the lead in hand. Only beat (the stride challenged) Sedgefield by < 3 lengths. Figures to sit a similar trip with the top 2. NOt good enough. More importantly, not pretty enough --ugly stride.

Maybe these guys aren't championship material in the first place.

2) AGS --- gave SS all he wanted in Tampa, then was rushed back in the Wood where he faced an impossible task: a typically wide trip, on an inside bias. He's better than NoCOunt but he'll get another wide trip. Realistically, how is this horse supposed to win when he'll sit a worse trip than Curlin and SS? MR WIDE is up.

See Street Sense

3) Circular Quay --- surprised the hell out of me when he actually RAN down in FG. But, he doesn't win if Ketchikan doesn't get a retarded ride. Also, notice that the other closers in the race did do some mild running: Zanjero (MR WIDE was biding his time on this one), Birdbirdistheword, and Imacrazyguy. The latter 2 didn't pick up their feet in the Florida Derby, however. Have always thought that SD is better. The only way he wins is if everyone else gets burned out. NO

Second to Scat Daddy in ability, if these two can cut a trail to mid-pack for the first turn, SD may be looking CQ in the eye on his right, while looking Curlin in the eye on his left at the head of the stretch, for the champion test.

4) Cowtown Cat --- incredibly, there's support for this plug. I cashed with him in the Gotham, where he sat a perfect trip. Then he sat a better, BIASED trip at Hawthorne. Maybe if they scraped the rail and he somehow got on it, and the lead, AND the key contenders FELL DOWN, he might get a piece. Anyone thinking this horse has a shot to win the race really should give up the game. Seriously.

There is support for CC because he is forth in ability, he also is a powerful runner, in a post that allows him to go to the front. He is also part of a full house effort by Pletcher to win this race. 1 1/4 or not, any frontrunner on a muddy track has an advantage. It also figures that Pletcher will send CC to the front to put early heat on Curlin. There could be a bonus in this strategy, because it not only would serve to give CC a shot while getting some heat on Curlin early ( Curlin will have to chase, or risk losing position ), if most of the field responds by letting them go, it could create a mid-pack pocket for Scat Daddy and CQ to slide into.

If these four come out of the first turn with good position, SD and CQ will have the upper hand in the stretch, I doubt that Curlin can survive the stetch battle anyway, I love him too, but known ability rules.

For Pletcher to use CC as a jack rabbit would be a wise and natural strategy also.

5) NoBiz --- tired of beating him. He ran straight last out but the jock didn't really seem to notice --why would he, when it takes the trainer 5 races to realize that the horse is lugging in bigtime in the stretch. (Is there a worse jockey getting on good horses than Cornelio?) BIG TIME BIAS trip int he Wood. This horse is so bad that even DrugS has stopped plugging him (DrugS was first on AGS, it need be pointed out). Enough said.

It may be unwise to totally count out the #5 in ability, with all the other stuff going on, lesser horses have fallen backwards into Derby wins.

A shot is just a shot, and I wouldn't expect NoBiz to win, but, I won't be going into Beyer-like histryonics if he does.

6) Great Hunter ---- If Gomez continues straight on Sam P (plenty of room MR WIDE) rather than waiting and swinging around him, he might've gotten BENT OVER in the Lewis. What works for him is if there are a couple of PREMATURE turn moves and he just happens to be the horse hanging around in perfect position as the wire comes up. Of course, CQ would typically be sucking up just behind him. :D

See Street Sense

7) Zanjero --- getting some respect lately off the Bluegrass effort. Problem is, I expected this guy to be able to run a bit earlier in the year BUT he turned out to be a PLUG.

I took him in the Bluegrass, because of the ability to odds ratio. For his chances today, see Street Sense.


This race will be run similarly to last year's. The athletic horses (Curlin, SS, AGS, SD, HS) will sit just off the pace and control the race in the lane. Count on the 1-2 finishers getting this trip. The late running horses will probably complete the exotics.

Some early run will be both necessary and dictated by the Pletcher strategy of bringing a barnful to win a Derby even if your best horse can't get through the traffic.

[the_fat_man]

Interesting that a qualitative Derby analysis comes up with the same top pick as using the best last race Beyer

Exactly right, Ace

I fudged all the shit on top and basically went with the top BEYER cause

that's what I do.

Of course, the fig maker himself is going with AGS, so

he must know something I don't.
:lol:

[the_fat_man]

Some early run will be both necessary and dictated by the Pletcher strategy of bringing a barnful to win a Derby even if your best horse can't get through the traffic.

You lost me at the point where you rated CC 4th in ability. This isn't Summer Doldrums or Bold Start here. There are horses in the field that can actually run a bit.

CC presents the same problems for Curlin that DD did in the AD. ANd there, Curlin effortlessly accelerates to deny him the rail and then just sits and cruises up to him and waves bye bye as DD is weaving through the stretch like a drunk, laying all over Flying First Class.

Curlin doesn't need to worry about the Pletcher charges. He has enough naturally speed to sit in good position. And, they will have enough problems of their own navigating the course. SD is just not as good --game as he can be. He's a grinder NOT particularly talented. AGS will get his typical wide trip. The RUNT will have to hope that they come back to him. Sam P will get his revenge on Poor Hunter(?)

If Curlin gets a clear run. If ALbarado doesn't move too soon on the turn (like our good friend Castellano in the BC), NOTHING is OUTKICKING him in the lane.

[gIracing]

when I sat down and actually watched tape, i got a very, very clear(er) picture of what I think the race will look like.

I am very comfortable iwth Curlin, even with the 2 rail and the no races as two as my derby pick.

One thing I disagree with you with however is Street Sense. Call me insane, but I'm not sold. I watched all his races... ALL of them, his MSW win at arlington, etc. I don't know what he did BC day but he hasnt' duplicated that performance before or after.. not even close. People act like he can just Cut it on for "the race". remains me a lot of Discreet Cat in how he has somewhat advoided the "key conenders" this year. I don't consider Great Hunter a serious contender. he's not a BAD horse, I think he is on the same level as Any Given Saturday, which isn't bad, but again take out the BC win, and he has been beaten by EVERY seroius contener other than Curlin, he has lost more races than he has won.

I was a little more impressed with Circular Quay than you. Again i went all the way back to his 2 year old year. He's better than Scat Daddy, he romped them in their head to head. However, he will need the heavens to part for him to win and get the right trip and I don't know about him on an off track.

Anyone who watches Storm in may are not so quick to dismiss him... not a BAD horse at all. Better Turf horse, needs the absolute race of his life.. but stranger things have happened.


I basically threw out everyhting that is male West of the Mississippi. I remember saying about Feburary to myself and some friends at work, " The best 3 year old at Santa Anita is Rags to Riches, regardless of sex".. she wins the SA Derby if she was in it, and I know WHY they didn't do it, but she's that good, and the rest are THAT bad

[Tom]

How will the early pace shake out?
Who will be helped or hurt early on?

This chart shows each horse's worst ever postions at the first call for winning efforts, and their best ever BRIS E1, any surface, distance.

I used the next best for the thee from the BCJubv last year, as there are questions as to whether or no the track was souped up that day, hte rail was golden, or whatever, but fro all thee, it happen to be thier best efforts ever as well, so take it for what it is.....

[Robert Fischer]

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5177/topprepsgt1.th.png (http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5177/topprepsgt1.png)

These are my top derby prep performances.

red number next to name is raw formula result
rose column is raw formula Applied to beyer and distance of race
next to that is 100pt scale of rose column
Grey section is repeat horses - use them underneath?

Street Sense leads , but that is with the BC. -Next highest is his tampa.

Curlin leads all races in 2007 with his Arkansas Derby

Note Curlins raw score before beyer and distance of race is suspect and Tiago's is surprisingly high.

I don't think Tiago can win this.

Curlin will probably move too early - he could still hold everyone off. I picture Hard Spun,or Curlin in the lead at the stretch and Street Sense passing outside for the win.

My guess is that pedigree and running style will be a factor and Street Sense should be at his absolute best with momentum in the lane as others flirt with their distance limitations.

The others with the greatest pedigree stamina are front-runners.

[the_fat_man]

Note Curlins raw score before beyer and distance of race is suspect and Tiago's is surprisingly high.

I don't think Tiago can win this.

Curlin will probably move too early - he could still hold everyone off. I picture Hard Spun,or Curlin in the lead at the stretch and Street Sense passing outside for the win.


Tiago is tempting, isn't he? His race is such a standout in the Fatchart.

During Curlin's 2nd race, I was on my feet repeating " wait, wait", in anticipation of Albarado moving too soon. ANd he didn't. In the AD, he had every right to blow by DD on the turn. And he didn't; he just eased along side, and let the horse run on its own in the lane. This is uncharacteristic. This horse, a young horse, in relatively overmatched fields, should be blowing by the pacesetters, not sitting comfortably and going to the lead as he pleases. Thus, I don't think this horse will be in much of a hurray to take the lead on the turn. I'm sure the connections know that if he's not used turning for home, nothing is running him down.

SS is more of a herky jerky kind of mover. He's quick to accelerate but also quick to tail off. His move needs to be precisely timed or he hangs --- as he probably did in the Tampa race--- or loses, as the result of a ridiculous early move in the Lane's End. Nonetheless, he's the 2nd best horse in the race.

I'm not as high as you are on HS. He can't match strides with the top horses in the lane.

[ranchwest]

I think I've watched enough tape. Time to offer some opinions. Here's a list of my contenders, in order of preference.

1) Curlin --- has made incredible strides in only 3 races. What a pleasure watching this horse's races. He's incredibly smooth and athletic. Better form last out than just about anything else in the field and yet there are experience concerns by the intelligencia. Albarado seems to fit him perfectly. He breaks, has a clear run to the turn, settles outside and behind the pace, and takes off when ready.

The Rest

2) Street Sense --- almost as athletic and explosive as Curlin. He's supposed to draw on AGS, however. Not as good as the top choice.

3) Scat Daddy --- soft spot for this hardknocker, as he's made me some money --- but he's not as good as the top 2. Nice to see him not getting needlessly abused now that Prado is up.

4) Tiago --- couldn't figure out why he ran so badly in the Lewis and then was able to put in a very nice effort in the SD. Then I watched all his races with Espinoza up. Why is this idiot allowed to ride young horses? The best of the closers. PRobably gets a piece. Not good enough to beat the top 2, however.

Longshot

Storm in May ---- had a protracted run with significant ground gain in the AD --the only horse other than Curlin to gain in the 3rd and 4th quarters ---then he did a Uturn the last 1/8th. Just a hunch. Hopefully, he doesn't break in badly, as he did in the AD, and take Curlin out. (Zanjero being the shield.)


Why I don't Like

1) Hard Spun ---- outgamed for 3rd in the OP stake by a horse that didn't change leads. Terrible form turning for home in the Lane's End. He struggled to change, like a cheap claimer and was under too much pressure to the wire. This after effortlessly sitting just off the pace and moving to the lead in hand. Only beat (the stride challenged) Sedgefield by < 3 lengths. Figures to sit a similar trip with the top 2. NOt good enough. More importantly, not pretty enough --ugly stride.

2) AGS --- gave SS all he wanted in Tampa, then was rushed back in the Wood where he faced an impossible task: a typically wide trip, on an inside bias. He's better than NoCOunt but he'll get another wide trip. Realistically, how is this horse supposed to win when he'll sit a worse trip than Curlin and SS? MR WIDE is up.

3) Circular Quay --- surprised the hell out of me when he actually RAN down in FG. But, he doesn't win if Ketchikan doesn't get a retarded ride. Also, notice that the other closers in the race did do some mild running: Zanjero (MR WIDE was biding his time on this one), Birdbirdistheword, and Imacrazyguy. The latter 2 didn't pick up their feet in the Florida Derby, however. Have always thought that SD is better. The only way he wins is if everyone else gets burned out. NO

4) Cowtown Cat --- incredibly, there's support for this plug. I cashed with him in the Gotham, where he sat a perfect trip. Then he sat a better, BIASED trip at Hawthorne. Maybe if they scraped the rail and he somehow got on it, and the lead, AND the key contenders FELL DOWN, he might get a piece. Anyone thinking this horse has a shot to win the race really should give up the game. Seriously.

5) NoBiz --- tired of beating him. He ran straight last out but the jock didn't really seem to notice --why would he, when it takes the trainer 5 races to realize that the horse is lugging in bigtime in the stretch. (Is there a worse jockey getting on good horses than Cornelio?) BIG TIME BIAS trip int he Wood. This horse is so bad that even DrugS has stopped plugging him (DrugS was first on AGS, it need be pointed out). Enough said.

6) Great Hunter ---- If Gomez continues straight on Sam P (plenty of room MR WIDE) rather than waiting and swinging around him, he might've gotten BENT OVER in the Lewis. What works for him is if there are a couple of PREMATURE turn moves and he just happens to be the horse hanging around in perfect position as the wire comes up. Of course, CQ would typically be sucking up just behind him. :D

7) Zanjero --- getting some respect lately off the Bluegrass effort. Problem is, I expected this guy to be able to run a bit earlier in the year BUT he turned out to be a PLUG.


This race will be run similarly to last year's. The athletic horses (Curlin, SS, AGS, SD, HS) will sit just off the pace and control the race in the lane. Count on the 1-2 finishers getting this trip. The late running horses will probably complete the exotics.

Good analysis.

I don't usually like the chalk in the Derby, but I must admit that Curlin and Street Sense are impressive. Street Sense has excellent breeding.

I don't think we've seen the best running from Tiago yet. His breeding suggests that he might be tough today.

That's the three I like on top. I'm giving some possibility to Hard Spun, No Biz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Stormello.

[Tom]

Street Sense's dam record at CD 5 3-2-0
Horse for course?

[jonnielu]

You lost me at the point where you rated CC 4th in ability. This isn't Summer Doldrums or Bold Start here. There are horses in the field that can actually run a bit.

It is possible that I see ability a little differently then most.

CC presents the same problems for Curlin that DD did in the AD. ANd there, Curlin effortlessly accelerates to deny him the rail and then just sits and cruises up to him and waves bye bye as DD is weaving through the stretch like a drunk, laying all over Flying First Class.

Curlin doesn't need to worry about the Pletcher charges. He has enough naturally speed to sit in good position. And, they will have enough problems of their own navigating the course. SD is just not as good --game as he can be. He's a grinder NOT particularly talented. AGS will get his typical wide trip. The RUNT will have to hope that they come back to him. Sam P will get his revenge on Poor Hunter(?)

But, does he have the belief in his natural speed that would allow him to let anyone go by six lengths?

If Curlin gets a clear run. If ALbarado doesn't move too soon on the turn (like our good friend Castellano in the BC), NOTHING is OUTKICKING him in the lane.


IF, anyone gets a clear run, that is the whole thing... isn't it? Curlin is poetry in motion, but, what happens if he is forced to pick it up early? Can he win if denied a clear run?

IF Albarado doesn't move too soon... he can only sit back so far.

[jonnielu]

Street Sense's dam record at CD 5 3-2-0
Horse for course?

Well yeah, his dam did alright, but, what is he doin?

[the_fat_man]

IF, anyone gets a clear run, that is the whole thing... isn't it? Curlin is poetry in motion, but, what happens if he is forced to pick it up early? Can he win if denied a clear run?

IF Albarado doesn't move too soon... he can only sit back so far.

here's where this line of reasoning loses me, jonnie

why is it that Curlin is the only horse that needs to fear traffic or premature move problems?

have the others proved that they can win WITH TROUBLE?

are they so much better? Of course not

NOTHING in the race wins without a reasonable setup

however, the intelligencia wants to focus on the fact that Curlin is relatively inexperienced and hasn't faced adversity yet

well, that may be true

but when the others, to a horse, have faced adversity, they've LOST

but that's not really saying much in a sport that's all about setups

[Wiley]

Good catch Tom. If I remember correctly, Street Cry romped in the Stephen Foster as well, a top and bottom angle.
Nice analysis Fat Man.

I think more of Hard Spun, he will sit on a rail trip unless Curlin is able to come under him which I doubt, with the first flight and at least have a chance at the top of the stretch. His breeding can get him home but am worried about his lack of battle testing in his preps. I'll toss Curlin though I think he has a ton of talent this is the wrong time to find out his bottom when Albarado asks the last eigth - I am guessing a Showing Up result. If he beats me so be it, you have to take a stand at some point, it is a pretty mediocre crop so far so this could be the year a horse preped like this gets it done.

To mark the 20th year since the Bet Twice /Alysheba Derby battle, pulled out my '87 Preakness tshirt to wear on a 6 mile run to honor those two hard hitters and how about a Hard Spun/Street Sense rumble to the wire with Hard Spun holding on. Good Luck.

[bigmack]

Good stuff Fats.

[jonnielu]

here's where this line of reasoning loses me, jonnie

why is it that Curlin is the only horse that needs to fear traffic or premature move problems?

Curlin is the only contender that has a clear run from the start, because of the number #2 position. There is no concern for traffic, except that he'll have to hold that great position to run that calm, steady, and even race that he can run.

It is 1 1/4, any idiot can see that Curlin is an exceptional horse, the question that he has not yet answered is can he add some distance while needing to do some running early to maintain the great position that he is searting with.

have the others proved that they can win WITH TROUBLE?

They haven't been completely unhindered or unchallenged, and there is no reason to expect Curlin to be given a clear run to the second turn.

are they so much better? Of course not

We know that Curlin is exceptional, we haven't seen the limit yet, but the limit is still there, and we may see it today. There are a few other exceptional 3 YO's in the race, Scat Daddy being one of them.

In a few hours we will know how good they all are at 1 1/4, but for now, I suspect that Scat Daddy will clear this huddle better then the others.

NOTHING in the race wins without a reasonable setup

however, the intelligencia wants to focus on the fact that Curlin is relatively inexperienced and hasn't faced adversity yet

well, that may be true

but when the others, to a horse, have faced adversity, they've LOST

but that's not really saying much in a sport that's all about setups

They will all face some adversity today, the horse that overcomes it best, we will call champion while we question his setup for Belmont. If Curlin wins the Derby today, in the same fashion as the AD, I'm on him for the Belmont. In the meantime, Scat Daddy has shown more ability so I'll go with that until Curlin shows more. We'll see in just a bit.

[the_fat_man]

They will all face some adversity today, the horse that overcomes it best, we will call champion while we question his setup for Belmont. If Curlin wins the Derby today, in the same fashion as the AD, I'm on him for the Belmont. In the meantime, Scat Daddy has shown more ability so I'll go with that until Curlin shows more. We'll see in just a bit.

I'm on record as very much appreciating SD's effort in the FOY. And I also noticed a somewhat different, more professional, horse in the FD. I attribute much of the latter to the rider switch. Edgar is eons better than Johnny V, and SD is a better horse when he's not being needlessly pushed or mauled. With that said, he got blistered in the BC juvenile AND when he was off a tad slow and had to run to make up ground in the 1st quarter of the Holy Bull, he ran gamely (notice how he easily handled Sam P in that race) but nonetheless was no match for NoCount.

When I watch his workmanlike FD turn and stretch run and compare it with Curlin's runs, I'm left with something that approximates the difference between any poetry that I might've written and the poetry of John Keats, say.

Slow and steady gets the money, sometimes.

[Tom]

Derby poetery, huh?
Try this one:

Little Miss Muffet,
Decided to rough it.
She boxed Curlin and 'Quay
A Pletcher insider,
Sat down beside'er
and said,"Not today, babe!"

:lol:

[Tom]

Well yeah, his dam did alright, but, what is he doin?

Well. let's see....
CD records 2 1-1 0, including the BC Juvy...I'd say he's doin' ok.

[Tom]

Well. let's see....
CD records 2 1-1 0, including the BC Juvy...I'd say he's doin' ok.

CORRECTION

His CD record is 3 2-1-0

Yup.
He"s doing all right.:jump:

[chickenhead]

fantastic horse, worthy champ, great race. Hard Spun is a pretty nice hoss too....damn.

[DougReding]

fantastic horse, worthy champ, great race. Hard Spun is a pretty nice hoss too....damn.

His move reminded me of Fupeg's Derby win where he looked like he had an extra gear that none of the other's had. Clearly, without question, the best horse won today. And definitely Hard Spun is an amazing horse as well. I thought he'd fade but he sure didn't. Not to take anything away from SS, but after watching the overhead replays it looked to me like several openings just materialized for him, almost like they decided to be nice and just get out of his way, lol. He got a great trip, a great ride, but also some luck for those holes to open the way they did. That doesn't happen and Hard Spun gets it. No question, SS much the best though.

I'd really like to see careful analysis of Curlin's trip. I heard Gary Stevens saying that he got a pretty lousy trip and was impressed he managed to get up for 3rd given the trip. Gary also said exactly what I was thinking: given the shorter distance and tighter turns, Curlin will deserve a really hard look for the Preakness. I would love to see a triple crown winner and I think SS has the right stuff, but will the betting public discount Curlin for the Preakness? If so, it will represent an amazing betting opportunity IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

Curlin will probably move too early - he could still hold everyone off. I picture Hard Spun,or Curlin in the lead at the stretch and Street Sense passing outside for the win.

My guess is that pedigree and running style will be a factor and Street Sense should be at his absolute best with momentum in the lane as others flirt with their distance limitations.

The others with the greatest pedigree stamina are front-runners.

All right!

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer


Curlin will probably move too early - he could still hold everyone off. I picture Hard Spun,or Curlin in the lead at the stretch and Street Sense passing outside for the win.

My guess is that pedigree and running style will be a factor and Street Sense should be at his absolute best with momentum in the lane as others flirt with their distance limitations.

The others with the greatest pedigree stamina are front-runners.



All right!

Ok Smarty, Now that you have set the bar so high for yourself, in two weeks I want to know the fractions of the Preakness a few days pre-race! :lol: ;)

And if you want to just post the Post Positions now, I would appreciate it.. :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

:jump: