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Stevie Belmont
05-04-2007, 11:36 PM
Kentucky Derby Horses Up Close And Who Figures How...







Here we go…Its Kentucky Derby 133 and this how we see it. Im going to rank the horses A, B and C. A horses have a legitimate shot to win the race and should be used on top as key horses or anyway you see fit. B horses are horses that might not look as strong for the win, but have to looked at as horses to use in exotic bets and underneath horses. C horses are horse that look to be up against it and have little chance to make an impact, much less win.





The A horses-Good Chance To Win The Race




Hard Spun-Winner of 5 of 6 races, solid stamina pedigree top and bottom. Galloped out strongly in the Lanesend and showed he can stay close with his impressive speed, worked a very fast 57 on Monday. Some say it’s a negative. How much did it take out of him? Fast horse work fast. More to like than dislike. Connections are confident in their muscular colt. Off track moves him up even more. Never has been in a Grade I, but has beat the ones he has been in against with ease.

Street Sense- he has a few things going for him and in a race like this we try to look at positives vs. negatives, and this one has more positives than negatives. He has the class; he has worked great and comes from connections that know how to win a Derby, blockbuster effort over the surface on BC day when he put together the biggest speed fig of any horse, has yet to win past 1 1/16 and even though he just missed in the Bluegrass, it is a mild concern.

Circular Quay- On the bubble with this horse between and A horse and a B horse. Never has raced beyond a 1 1/16 and coming off an 8 week break, but he has an explosive late kick. Connections seem to feel he will run a top effort off the layoff and a pedigree that says he can get the distance, from Team Tabor who won with Thunder Gulch, sire of CQ This one should at least be running late. Should not be overlooked.

Nobiz like Shobiz-This guy was the leader of the ThoroughbredZone top 12 for a pretty good stretch, would not want to completely give up on this big talented racehorse. . Big strong horse has yet to run a blockbuster performance. Could it be he will on May 5th. Horse has talent that we know. In addition, based on his pedigree and room for improvement, is somewhat of a sleeper. He was close between an A and a B horse. He needs to move forward to win, and that may not be impossible.

Scat Daddy- On paper he looks good. Two time Grade I winner and took both of Gulfstreams top 3-year-old prep races. Sharp looking horse has also won twice at 1 1/8 from a horse that I think might not like the 1 ¼. He is one of the horse that could win here, but he is not a top choice and is a borderline A type. He has been running well and needs to be used on a ticket in some manner.

Curlin- The talk of the Derby and the morning line favorite. No races as a 2 year old and breaks from the 2 spot, that I don’t like, but he could be that good. Has won all of his races by open day light, but has not busted any stopwatches. He could have been an A horse, but will make him a B horse. If runs back to any of his prior races, an on the board finish is possible. He could be that good

The B Horses-Horses that might not have the best chance at victory, but could very well fill out some big triple tickets and if you’re a super player, those as well.

Sam P.- The longest shot of any of the Pletcher horses, will be overlooked at 40/1 or so. Winning looks like a huge stretch, but sometimes the most overlooked horse of a trainers group surprise. If there is a surprise, it will be underneath. A horse to use if you like a huge odds.

Zanjero- A consistent closer who usually comes with his late run, certainly the type of horse who could get a piece of the prize and should be used accordingly.

Cowtown Cat- I am perplexed with this one. Has never run that fast, but is working very well and could be improving at the right time. I cant honestly think he can win, and knowing he will probably be a pace factor. It is Pletcher and I think he warrants some respect.

Tiago.- Santa Anita Derby winner, another horse that could be going well late passing tiring rivals. At big odds, would make a great addition to any triple or super ticket. Will offer value if anything.

Dominican- It is hard to figure this one out, loves poly, not so good on dirt that was than this is now. Hs improved big time since being gelded. We know he likes to come from way back. He is hard to gauge, but if he runs back to his last 2 races, he could very well hit the board.

Great Hunter-Landed the dreaded far outside 20 hole in the draw. He will have to over come that to be a factor. Has banged heads with some other of the top contenders and based on pedigree another one that should enjoy going long. Value will be there as well.

Any Given Saturday- The Wood was not so good, but is to enough to just ignore completely? Ran a big Tampa Bay Derby and ran a game second to the highly regarded Tiz Wonderful over the same surface. Post is no picnic. A interesting horse, but is he going to regress or improve off the Wood? Tough call. Pedigree says the 1 ¼ should not be a problem, should enjoy an off track.

Liquidity- He could be the sleeper, has been in against some of the other better horses of the crop. Blinkers off and 2 sharp 6 panel works. Can he win, looks like a stretch and distance could be a concern, but what if he runs a big one. It is not totally out of the question. An underneath prospect in here.





The C horses, Horses that are up against it.










Sedgefield- He is a grass horse who will be trying the dirt for the first time. Looks like he will be a pace factor to help Dominicans late kick.

Storm In May-Blind in one eye and is out classed in this affair.

Imawildandcrazyguy-Has never run a race close to what it will take to win here. He is up against it in here.

Teuflesberg- Has raced 15 times. Looks to be a pace factor at best. looks like he will not want much to do with a 1 ¼.

Stormello-He might be the fastest horse in the race. Can go quick early. Gave way in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby and I certainly don’t think he will want much to do with 1 ¼.

Bwana Bull- From sharp connections. Looks to out classed, but stands a better chance than some others mentioned here. Tall order to be a factor any way you look at it. 4th place? Would make a huge super, cannot see much better than that, and that will be tough.

The play? I like Hard Spun to win Kentucky Derby 133. Stamina and speed work well together and an off track could very well make him even a bigger threat. Still love his Lanesend and I think he has what it takes. The fast work is a mild concern, but we still will go with him.






Here are other plays…….



We will do something like this

Win Play Hard Spun

Saver win play on Circular Quay


Exacta 8/All

Triple Play

8/2,7,12,13,14,16,18,20/2,3,9,13,15,18,19,20 $56

And

8,7/7,8,12,16,20/3,12,15,16,19,20 $50

JustRalph
05-04-2007, 11:50 PM
Joann Jones reported on HRTV today that the word on Dominican is that he has not been feeling well. He has lost 225 pounds since the last race????

FYI

Stevie Belmont
05-04-2007, 11:52 PM
Oh wow, thats not good. Might have to change this, ill see. Damn....

Thanks

WJ47
05-05-2007, 12:32 AM
Joann Jones reported on HRTV today that the word on Dominican is that he has not been feeling well. He has lost 225 pounds since the last race????

FYI

That seems almost hard to believe! A few years back, I rescued a very fat Quarter Horse/Draft gelding that was about to be sold to slaughter. My vet said he needed to lose 200 lbs. It took over a year to get him to lose the weight with me riding him daily on trail rides, monitoring his feed, and lunging him every morning. Hasn't it only been 2 weeks since his last race? To lose over 100 pounds a week is a huge drop.

JustRalph
05-05-2007, 01:51 AM
That seems almost hard to believe! A few years back, I rescued a very fat Quarter Horse/Draft gelding that was about to be sold to slaughter. My vet said he needed to lose 200 lbs. It took over a year to get him to lose the weight with me riding him daily on trail rides, monitoring his feed, and lunging him every morning. Hasn't it only been 2 weeks since his last race? To lose over 100 pounds a week is a huge drop.

That is exactly what she said, 225 pounds? If so, he is one sick horse ? maybe

Tom
05-05-2007, 10:54 AM
Joann Jones reported on HRTV today that the word on Dominican is that he has not been feeling well. He has lost 225 pounds since the last race????

FYI

WOW!
I ownder if Keenland would let ME run over the track! :rolleyes:

BillW
05-05-2007, 10:59 AM
That seems almost hard to believe! A few years back, I rescued a very fat Quarter Horse/Draft gelding that was about to be sold to slaughter. My vet said he needed to lose 200 lbs. It took over a year to get him to lose the weight with me riding him daily on trail rides, monitoring his feed, and lunging him every morning. Hasn't it only been 2 weeks since his last race? To lose over 100 pounds a week is a huge drop.

Wouldn't that depend on how the weight was measured. Assuming the 225 lbs. was measured with an equal amount of water and food consumed you may be right. I assume a vet knows how to weigh a horse but where did the 225 figure come from. (BTW a 5 gallon bucket of water weighs 40 lbs.)

JPinMaryland
05-05-2007, 11:37 PM
Why would it matter how it was measured? Isnt 225 lbs still 225 pounds?

JustRalph
05-05-2007, 11:56 PM
Why would it matter how it was measured? Isnt 225 lbs still 225 pounds?

Bill has a point. Only if the two weights were taken under similar conditions
.....but I can't imagine taking the weights under dissimilar conditions? unless somebody is an idiot. Even though, under Bill's scenario, it cold only swing 80 pounds either way........ 225 had to have received some attention or people wouldn't have been talking about it.

Tom
05-06-2007, 12:04 AM
Lost 225 pounds, huh?
I guess he was sitting on a big one!:lol:

BillW
05-06-2007, 12:09 AM
No doubt there was a weight loss (assuming the reports are accurate of course) but the horse could have been 100 lbs over weight at the initial weigh in and overshot a healthy weight by 50 lbs. and the rest was water weight - I'd guess a horse loses 50 lbs of waterweight from saddling thru cool-out on race day (I'll find out for sure and follow up)

BillW
05-06-2007, 12:55 AM
A trainer confirmed that 50 lbs. was a reasonable number.