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JustRalph
05-03-2007, 12:14 AM
I was wondering if anybody would like to post their picks from different software (or the same stuff, depending on how you use it I guess)

Every year it seems like somebody always asks what software picked the winner........so lets get it posted before the race this year.

I am sure there are some software vendors who might want to partake of this thread.............or maybe not...... :lol:

I actually think a 20 horse race with this kind of volatility is probably unfair to any software.......but it could be fun...........anybody game?

Maji
05-03-2007, 01:43 AM
I am lurking for a while enjoying reading what is being posted here and this is my first post.

Excel to do my number crunching. I am using two separate home grown systems and they can and do often have separate picks. I will usually play the top horse from each of the systems to win.

System 1 - picks only one horse
System 2 - picks three horses in order of predicted finish. I usually play the top one to win. Few times when I felt the urge I have played exactas using the top two, but I think it has been breakeven.

Anyway, here it is:


Race No. System 1 System 2

1 2 5,2,1
2 NO PICKS
3 4 8,1,2
4 5 2,5,8
5 4 2,1.6
6 6 6,1,7
7 5 6,5,7
8 10 7,1,9
9 2 No Pick
10 16 8,18,2 <--------Kentucky Derby
11 4 1,7,4
12 1 4,2,1


Well, this is just for fun. I dont' claim to be a pro, so all these should be taken with a grain of salt.

JustRalph
05-03-2007, 04:10 AM
How is this for a scary scenario..........from Equisim, with me picking the pacelines.............

betovernetcapper
05-03-2007, 12:17 PM
These are the Netcapper current findings using auto settings-going to change in next two days as more races are entered into the current CD database.

Glad I'm boycotting this race.

richrosa
05-03-2007, 01:22 PM
I'll be on At the Races and Beyond tonight at 6:30pm to do my software picks with Steve Byk. I'll post them here after I do that.

JustRalph
05-03-2007, 01:28 PM
I'll be on At the Races and Beyond tonight at 6:30pm to do my software picks with Steve Byk. I'll post them here after I do that.

Oh no! One more thing to listen to..........thanks Rich!

JimG
05-03-2007, 03:46 PM
Here's what my preliminary run with MPH looks like:

JimG
05-03-2007, 03:48 PM
And my preliminary look with Val4:

Jeff P
05-03-2007, 04:17 PM
http://www.jcapper.com/KyDerby2007.html

JCapper HTML Report (Pre-Scratches using $1.00 Bris File)

TOP 4
5-2 HARD SPUN
5-1 COWTOWN CAT
6-1 STREET SENSE
9-1 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ





-jp

.

kitts
05-03-2007, 06:21 PM
AllInOne V6 preliminary ranked selections with automatic pacelines:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Curlin
Stormello

Projected final times are
Street Sense 158.10
Any Given Saturday 158.11
Curlin 201.70
Stormello 201.72

ldiatone
05-03-2007, 06:27 PM
jimg did you use 1 line select or 2 line or your own inputs?
i came up with street sense on top and using 2 line selection

richrosa
05-03-2007, 06:55 PM
I posted my PP's and printouts at my website, www.handicappingos.com


Picks:

1) Scat Daddy
2) Any Given Saturday
3) Nobiz Like Showbiz
4) Street Sense

Others: Circular Quay, Tiago

kingfin66
05-03-2007, 07:10 PM
AllInOne V6 preliminary ranked selections with automatic pacelines:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Curlin
Stormello

Projected final times are
Street Sense 158.10
Any Given Saturday 158.11
Curlin 201.70
Stormello 201.72

Those would be some SMOKIN' times!

JimG
05-03-2007, 07:43 PM
jimg did you use 1 line select or 2 line or your own inputs?
i came up with street sense on top and using 2 line selection

My version is an earlier version that requires that I select the paceline.

ratpack
05-03-2007, 08:05 PM
These are the Netcapper current findings using auto settings-going to change in next two days as more races are entered into the current CD database.

Glad I'm boycotting this race.

How come their are so many #H listed in your Top 5 win%?

JimG
05-03-2007, 08:19 PM
How come their are so many #H listed in your Top 5 win%?

Total is a high number because you are betting the top 5 horses per race.

ratpack
05-03-2007, 08:29 PM
Total is a high number because you are betting the top 5 horses per race.

That's not it. The Top 1 H# under Overlay is 19 horses.

betovernetcapper
05-03-2007, 08:56 PM
The program shows how the top pic-2nd pic-3rd pic-4th pic-5th pic performed.

It then lists how those pics did when overlaid.

It then show how those pics did when underlaid.

At some tracks betting action seems to be meaningful-overlays kill you. There

have been protracted periods of time when betting top pic underlays show

amazing results. At some tracks overlays are the way to go. I find it useful. :)

bigmack
05-03-2007, 09:04 PM
I posted my PP's and printouts at my website, www.handicappingos.com (http://www.handicappingos.com)
R2 - When I go there and click KY PP's it doesn't nav anywhere? Don't call me a dummy cause I'm sensitive. :D How can I see the layout of your pp's?

ratpack
05-03-2007, 09:07 PM
The program shows how the top pic-2nd pic-3rd pic-4th pic-5th pic performed.

It then lists how those pics did when overlaid.

It then show how those pics did when underlaid.

At some tracks betting action seems to be meaningful-overlays kill you. There

have been protracted periods of time when betting top pic underlays show

amazing results. At some tracks overlays are the way to go. I find it useful. :)

I just don't get where all those H# are coming from that you posted on the Derby. Top 1 under ALL H# lists 41 horses.

Another question their is a *by the overlays 1.26 Top 2, is that saying you should dutch the top 2 Scat Daddy and Street Sense if they are overlays?

betovernetcapper
05-03-2007, 09:18 PM
Sorry it's confusing-the top bunch of numbers is how the program is preforming at CD so far. The * suggests that betting either/both of the top 2 is a good strategy. I don't think this sample is large enough to be really meaningful-but that's the layout. :)

douglasw32
05-03-2007, 10:39 PM
Home grown, projects horsed stretching out, makes all past race times = 12 furlongs, then compares that in Miles Per Hour to Secretariat's Derby run.

http://localpcpros.com/dfkd.pdf


Par today has to be one that can hit a 79/80 distance figure from a 6/7 class level.

timtam
05-03-2007, 10:43 PM
Okay I got lots of programs so here we go

Insta Pick :

15
4

Classy Profits :
19-Dominican
6- Cowtown
8- Hard Spun
14- Scat Daddy
16-Circular Quay
12- Nobiz Like
7- Street Sense

timtam
05-03-2007, 10:49 PM
Max 21:
10 Teuflesberg 38
2 Curlin 35
3 Zanjero 34
6 Cowtown Cat 32

Double Dozen :
7 - Street Sense 24
16- Circular Quay 14
14 Scat Daddy 12
12 Nobiz Like 9

Winergy:
6 Cowtown Cat 244
8 Hard Spun 244
18 Any Given 239
1 Sedgefield 238
7 Street Sense 237
12 Nobiz Like 235
16 Circular Quay 233
2 Curlin 232
17 Stormello 232
14 Scat Daddy 231
9 Liquidity 228
13 Sam P 228
20 Great Hunter 225
5
10
15
19
3
11
4

WIN-GENERATE
10- Teuflesberg 88

Jake
05-03-2007, 11:07 PM
My software, geared toward longshots, top 3 in order:

Any Given Saturday 12-1
Hard Spun 15-1
Nobiz Like Showbiz 8-1

Gordon Pine
05-04-2007, 07:59 AM
My method of handicapping the Derby is:

1. Pick a horse who has recent speed figures that are in the ballpark of the best of the competition.
2. Insist on value.

I use my standard mechanical contender-selection method in the Derby. I take the highest two of each horse’s last three speed figures and average them. That gives me a contender figure for each horse. (If there are only two races available in the pps, I average them. If there is only one race available, I use that as the number.) I then take the top five horses as my contenders. If anybody is tied for fifth, I include them. I’m using Cramer speed figures rather than Beyer speed figures this year.

Here are my five contenders:

Street Sense -- 100 contender rating
Teuflesberg -- 97.5 contender rating
Nobiz Like Shobiz -- 99 contender rating
Scat Daddy -- 102 contender rating
Stormello -- 98.5 contender rating

Yeah, it's pretty bold contender selection to throw out 75% of the horses including the morning line favorite, but as Ron Ambrose used to say, "Often wrong, but never in doubt." I may get blown out at this step, but this contender selection method has historically been a good strategy in big races, so I'll stick with it.

I ran these horses through The Capper, manually picking my own pacelines, and this is my betting line:

Horse____________Fair Odds______Bet Odds______ML Odds
Scat Daddy__________5/2__________ 6/1_________10/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz___5/2___________6/1__________8/1
Street Sense________4/1___________9/1__________4/1
Stormello___________7/1__________15/1_________30/1

It'll depend on the track odds, but if the morning line odds are any guide, I'll be betting three horses to win (in a 20 horse field, I don't have any problem with this): Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello.

My exacta strategy is to wheel the overlays top-and-bottom to the top two favorites, and then to box the overlays. So, my exacta bets may be something like this: Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello on top and underneath Curlin and Circular Quay. Also, a three-horse exacta box of Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Stormello.

Because I picked my own pacelines and contenders, and set The Capper's predictors to equal weights (in effect turning off the predictor modeler), my betting line may be different than other Capper users

Ponyplayr
05-04-2007, 09:35 AM
I'm usring AO1V605/05/07 Race #10 CD 1 1/4 Miles Dirt Fast 05/05/07 Race #10 CD 1 1/4 Miles Dirt Fast
Post: 6:04PM (06:04 PM) 20 entries
STK G1 Open Age: 3 YO, No Sex Restrictions
No Model Available No E/P/S available No WMF No PCP
Race Type : Orderly (DA)

=================================BETTING LINE==================================
Fair Bet WP WPS ML DSLR Comments
SC Horse name Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 6/1 8/1 20/1 40/1 8/1 28 bmpd st, stdy 1st turn
7 Street Sense 4/1 21 dueled,brushd,all out
17 Stormello 30/1 35 inside, gamely
14 Scat Daddy 10/1 35 4 wide, just up
2 Curlin 7/2 21 swept to fore 4-w
6 Cowtown Cat 20/1 28 pace inside, drew off
19 Dominican 20/1 21 waited 2nd turn
8 Hard Spun 15/1 42 increased margin
18 Any Given Saturday 12/1 28 caught wide both turns
10 Teuflesberg 30/1 21 bobbled break
16 Circular Quay 8/1 56 4-w 2nd trn,clerly bst
1 Sedgefield 50/1 29 bumped 3/8 pole
3 Zanjero 30/1 21 4-w, 5-w,clear,falterd
20 Great Hunter 15/1 21 4wd into lane,clear
9 Liquidity 30/1 28 faded final furlong
13 Sam P. 20/1 28 vied,stalked,best rest
5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50/1 35 no final kick rail
15 Tiago 15/1 28 off bit slow,rallied
11 Bwana Bull 50/1 28 3w 2nd trn, driving
4 Storm in May 30/1 21 angled wide 1/4 pole

===============================SPEED/PACE SUMMARY===============================
Race Type : Orderly (DA) Average NTL: 2.7

tboles
05-04-2007, 03:28 PM
Here is Thorostats selections for tomorrows Derby.
Great Hunter and Street Sense should be rated higher but the Bluegrass trouble lowered their chances. I move those 2 into the top 4 rated 3rd and 4th along with Nobiz Like Shobiz who should get the early lead and Circular Quay who I believe will be the winner.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/211/484161605_e978dc839f_o.jpg

levinmpa
05-04-2007, 04:40 PM
William Scott Ratings, Sorted by PCR.

Name 2nd Fin Class Total PCR Half CQ LRA Form
2 Curlin 7 3 6 26 1.63 72.9 32.6 105.6 NN+
8 Hard Spun 9 9 16 50 1.47 71.7 31.8 103.5 N+N
12 Nobiz Like Shob 11 9 15 50 1.43 70.9 32.1 103.0 N+N
17 Stormello 19 26 20 87 1.34 70.8 32.4 103.2 N+-
1 Sedgefield 23 24 20 87 1.30 73.2 31.6 104.7 N+-
14 Scat Daddy 25 14 17 64 1.14 71.0 31.6 102.6 N+N
7 Street Sense 30 13 14 65 1.14 77.1 27.7 104.7 N+N
19 Dominican 26 17 18 66 1.08 77.5 27.3 104.7 N+N
6 Cowtown Cat 22 18 18 60 1.03 73.6 31.5 105.1 N+N
15 Tiago 17 13 9 39 1.00 72.7 30.4 103.0 NNN
10 Teuflesberg 30 36 24 89 .99 76.7 28.1 104.8 N+N
4 Storm In May 40 26 28 92 .98 73.8 31.7 105.6 NN-
20 Great Hunter 44 19 20 80 .96 77.0 28.1 105.1 N+N
18 Any Given Satur 25 10 16 49 .96 70.9 32.7 103.6 N+-
9 Liquidity 20 27 17 58 .91 71.4 32.3 103.8 N+-
16 Circular Quay 44 13 15 62 .86 72.5 31.0 103.5 NLN
13 Sam P. 39 23 21 71 .86 71.8 31.8 103.6 N+N
11 Bwana Bull 34 20 22 64 .84 72.3 31.6 104.0 N+N
3 Zanjero 51 20 19 75 .83 77.1 27.7 104.8 N+N
5 Imawildandcrazyg 49 31 25 83 .79 72.2 31.4 103.7 NNN

Kelso
05-04-2007, 05:38 PM
I take the highest two of each horse’s last three speed figures and average them.


Gordon,
In your mechanical system, do you consider or ignore surface and distance when looking at the "last three?" If you do consider distance, how much leeway do you allow from today's distance (e.g., an eighth, a sixteenth)?

Thank you.

Gordon Pine
05-04-2007, 06:24 PM
Kelso:

Yep, using this mechanical contender selection method, I ignore everything except the speed figures. I don't use it in all races -- mostly just in big publicity races, although I believe it works pretty well across the board.

Come to think of it, I should write a diagnostic spot play with these contender rules and test exactly how well it does over time.

Gordon
NetCapper

dutchboy
05-04-2007, 10:43 PM
Consider using the best 1 of the past 3 final time speed figures in stakes races. I normally use bris speed figures. Wager the top 2 figure horses equally. Pass the race if there is not at least a 1 pt seperation between the 2 and 3 horse and if the odds are bad. IGNORE everything else. Win % for the top 2 will be close to 60%. It has been profitable for a number of years.

Charlie Judge
05-04-2007, 11:17 PM
Race 1 #2 Ginger Punch
Race 2: #4 Little nick or pass race many first timers
Race 3: #8 Cute Cakes
Race 4: #2 Consecration
Race 5 #4 Ah Day and #6 Istan
Race 6: #6 Magnificent Song with #1 Lady of Venice
Race 7: #1 Upcoming Song
Race 8: #1 Pussycat Doll
Race 9: #5 Better Talk Now
Race 10: #14 Scat Daddy with #18 Any Given and #17 Stormello
Race 11 #5 Jonsie's Hero
Race 12: #6 Best Mom

Charlie Judge

Lefty
05-05-2007, 12:29 AM
Synergism v1 Haven't been using but for a week, no doubt dif users might come up with different picks, but my picks using the prgm are:
18, 16, 3
Luck to everyone.

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2007, 12:35 AM
Here's my contribution:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/Derby_2007.htm

BeatTheChalk
05-05-2007, 12:53 AM
I was wondering if anybody would like to post their picks from different software (or the same stuff, depending on how you use it I guess)

Every year it seems like somebody always asks what software picked the winner........so lets get it posted before the race this year.

I am sure there are some software vendors who might want to partake of this thread.............or maybe not...... :lol:

I actually think a 20 horse race with this kind of volatility is probably unfair to any software.......but it could be fun...........anybody game?

If u think I felt sorry for myself - inadequate - felt like a dolt ..PRIOR TO
seeing all of those system picks ..Imagine how I feel now :jump: :bang: :lol:

JustRalph
05-05-2007, 01:06 AM
sorry, :lol:

since I started the thread, I figured I would toss in a natural "Equisim" Sim Results....... I really messed with the previous one posted. So here is the natural right out of the box, not tinkered with, results. The only thing used is "multiple pacelines" which means let the program do the work.

For some reason the program is loving Hard Spun no matter what the hell I tinker with? Much more than I do............but what the hell........This program does not a damn thing with "surface" so any poly track races are just generic numbers to Equisim. No bias is applied.......... I normally don't apply any even when I can............fyi

If this thing is even close to right, there will be 15 horses within ten lengths of each other???? :bang: That should make for some serious traffic trouble

Kelso
05-05-2007, 01:24 AM
Win % for the top 2 will be close to 60%. It has been profitable for a number of years.


Dutchboy,
Am I reading this correctly to understand that approximately 5-1 is the minimum odds to accept in your system? I get there by assuming that 10 races require 20 wagers and will yield 6 winners ... so one must recover $28 of losses ($2/wager x 14) from the 6 winners.

If this is correct, how common do you find it to be to get 5-1 on the two top speed figures in a stakes race? Is it a fairly low percentage of stakes races that produce wagers?


Thank you.

Indulto
05-05-2007, 02:32 AM
Here's my contribution:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/Derby_2007.htm
PA,
I liked your analysis. It is interesting to compare
it with a ranking based on odds computed from the
Oaks Derby double will pays:

RK P# HORSE ML_ODDS AW_ODDS DD_ODDS DD_PAYS
1 7 Street Sense 4.5 9.0 4.4 23.80
2 2 Curlin 3.5 6.0 6.3 33.60
3 16 Circular Quay 8.0 14.0 9.7 50.60
4 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz 8.0 12.0 12.0 62.00
5 14 Scat Daddy 10.0 6.0 12.7 65.60
6 8 Hard Spun 15.0 10.0 15.4 79.20
7 18 Any Given Saturday 12.0 21.0 17.2 88.20
8 15 Tiago 15.0 10.0 25.6 129.80
9 6 Cowtown Cat 20.0 18.0 26.8 136.00
10 20 Great Hunter 15.0 26.0 33.4 168.80
11 19 Dominican 20.0 17.0 44.4 224.20
12 3 Zanjero 30.0 34.0 53.9 271.40
13 13 Sam P. 20.0 47.0 74.8 376.20
14 17 Stormello 30.0 48.0 75.6 379.80
15 9 Liquidity 30.0 46.0 93.8 471.00
16 10 Teuflesberg 30.0 44.0 107.8 541.00
17 4 Storm In May 30.0 20.0 113.7 570.40
18 11 Bwana Bull 50.0 35.0 115.2 577.80
19 1 Sedgefield 50.0 46.0 133.0 667.20
20 5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50.0 18.0 135.8 680.80

Your program improves the ranking of Any Given
Saturday, Dominican, Teufelsberg, Stormello,
Storm In May, and Sam P. while downgrading
Zanjero, Hard Spun, Coaltown Cat, Great Hunter
and Tiago in comparison with the public's
consensus in establishing the Oaks favorite.

Is your ranking taking track condition into
account?

RAC00505.CDX DIST= 10 f CLASS=GST
PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS T3 TT LF DSL AP %E
---------------------------------------------------
(7)STREET SENSE S 2 3.0 123.9 52.69 56.43 21 53.80 50.05
(2)CURLIN E/P5 7.5 124.4 52.75 53.09 21 53.34 50.85
(18)ANY GIVEN SA E/P5 12.0 124.7 52.54 51.98 28 53.13 51.43
(14)SCAT DADDY E/P5 15.0 124.9 52.56 52.05 35 53.19 51.96
(19)DOMINICAN P 3 26.2 125.2 52.49 51.05 21 52.89 51.64
(10)TEUFLESBERG E 5 26.2 125.2 52.70 52.39 21 52.96 52.11
(12)NOBIZ LIKE S E 7 29.9 125.3 52.63 48.30 28 52.79 52.28
(17)STORMELLO E/P8 29.9 125.3 52.44 49.73 35 52.92 52.77
(4)STORM IN MAY E 5 112.2 126.0 52.80 50.50 21 52.57 51.01
(15)TIAGO P 1 112.2 126.0 52.17 54.67 28 52.83 50.50
(13)SAM P. E/P6 112.2 126.0 51.76 52.50 28 52.67 51.60
(20)GREAT HUNTER P 3 112.2 126.0 51.23 54.58 21 52.78 50.76
(6)COWTOWN CAT E/P6 149.7 126.1 52.27 53.26 28 52.65 50.65
(8)HARD SPUN E 6 299.3 126.6 52.57 50.24 42 52.41 52.82
(9)LIQUIDITY E 7 299.3 126.7 51.32 50.57 28 52.26 52.19
(3)ZANJERO S 3 299.3 127.2 52.03 50.37 21 52.08 51.09
(11)BWANA BULL P 2 299.3 127.2 50.98 51.95 28 52.14 51.48
(16)CIRCULAR QUA S 0 299.3 127.9 52.17 49.14 56 51.84 51.69
(5)IMAWILDANDCR P 0 299.3 128.0 51.55 49.95 35 51.85 52.15

Lefty
05-05-2007, 03:01 AM
OOPS, I misreported my picks. Mem failed.
Correction: 18, 19, 3

Jingle
05-05-2007, 09:05 AM
Using 1 paceline with MPH I came up with Street Sense ((7) and Circular Quay
(16) over Cowtown Cat (6) Any Given Saturday (18) and Nobiz Like Shobiz (12).

If you use the Blue Grass Stakes on artificial surface, you have to include Zanjero (3) to be closing stoutly.

Good Luck to All

chrisl
05-05-2007, 10:12 AM
Profiler ES picks
#7 Street Sense...........xl 2.6
#8 Hard Spun...............xl 3.0
#12 No Biz Like Showbiz.xl 3.0
#2 Curlin.....................xl 3.8
#14 Scat Daddy...........xl 3.8
Picks with default pacelines...Chrisl

Secretariat
05-05-2007, 10:16 AM
Power onLine has only hit one Derby using the raw Consensus in the last 10 years and that was Fusaichi Pegasus so I'm using the POL Consensus as an eliminator and its consensus pick is Cowtown Cat.

POL howeverhas a 30% success rate on C3, PL+, PL96 and a 70% ITM rate on TEM. Also the XA method rarely gets a play in the Derby going 1-3 over the last 10 years but has a play this year. All of those methods have huge ROI returns on those wins, but POL has struggled over the last three years for the winner with only the CA hitting Smarty Jones.

So focusing on the historical winning methods for POL they'd be:

C3 - Circular Quay
PL+ - Cowtown Cat (who I eliminated via the Consensus elim)
PL96 - No Biz Like Sho Biz
TEM - Street Sense (for ITM and does look like a good ITM possilbility)
XA - Curlin

I'm leaning towards Curlin if the odds are good since the XA method shows the highest ROI and win percent in POL. I know he didn't race as a 2 year old, but in some ways that helps his value than if he did.

The fact that so many of the angles picked different horses indicates a contentious race and I'll probably throw out the favorite for sure in this year's race. Good luck all.

Also AOdds Gold top 5 PRC horse are below which is a good contender rating:

PRC's (some surprises here)
1 - Street Sense
2 - Any Given Saturday
3 - Hard Spun
4 - Cowtown Cat
5 - Circular Quay

AOdds' Comp Ranking has Liquidity and Comp Speed has Curlin and the Super.Mega Chex screen has Stormello. Taulbot's Pace Calculator also has Stormello which is kind of interesting.

So wide open it looks like from the Aodds program.

eqitec
05-05-2007, 10:43 AM
Here's from my handicapping software

cato
05-05-2007, 11:39 AM
Here is how TMM sees the derby with paceline selection modified by me. I threw out pacelines from the Blue Grass and did not use any turf lines. If you kept the Blue Grass lines in the program then most of the Blue Grass horses would be at the TOP of the PPF ranksing and have much lower odds. Also, I did not use Liquidity's SHAM line.

So this is not TMM out of the box.

The more I look at this Derby the more I love it as entertainment and think it will be an interesting race but also think its damn near impossible to handicap. It could be any of the 20 horses (except the early horse who will burst into flames at the quarter pole) or Curlin could romp. Good luck to all.

Here is TMM first sorted by odds and then by PPF rankings:

MM ranked by ODDS:

6 Cowtown Cat 10-1
2 Curlin 12-1
12 Nobiz 12-1
9 Liquidity 13-1
7 Street Sense 14-1
19 Dominican 14-1
17 Stormello (also the fulcrum) 16-1
8 Hard Spun 16-1
14 Scat Daddy 16-1
18 Any given Saturday 19-1
15 Tiago 19-1
3 Zanjero 20-1
20 Great hunter 20-1
(and so on)

And ranked by (PPF)

12 Nobiz (11)
9 Liquidity (11)
19 Dominican (9)
17 Stormello (8)
(also the fulcrum)

2 Curlin (8)
18 Any given Sat (7)
7 Street Sense (7)
6 Cowtown Cat (7)
8 Hard Spun (6)
14 Scat Daddy (4)
3 Zanjero (4)
15 Tiago (4)
20 Great hunter (4)
(and so on)

Good luck to all.

Cato

singunner
05-05-2007, 12:10 PM
I feel at a bit of a disadvantage since my program doesn't have any data on Curlin, but here's what it spits out right now. I just got it to the point where it could test an individual race yesterday, so I hope it's not buggy :)

Great Hunter
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Stormello Scat Daddy
Imawildandcrazyguy
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Dominican
Sam P.
Teuflesberg
Zanjero
Tiago
Liquidity
Sedgefield
Storm in May
Cowtown Cat
Bwana Bull

The program has a better average on smaller fields, but I guess that's to be expected. I can't really imagine a program making a good prediction on a 20-horse field.

Maji
05-05-2007, 01:10 PM
There was a mess up in my numbers and luckily(?) I found it.

The picks for the KY Derby should be 8 - 7 - 2 instead of what I have in the second post of this thread.

I am playing an exacta box with these 3.

Tom
05-05-2007, 01:54 PM
After eliminations.
I put all 20 in and then threw out the last ranked horses until I got this far.

Tom
05-05-2007, 01:58 PM
HTR K-line odds, using best of last two pacelines method:

Scat......5-2
NoBiz.....3-1
AGS.......6-1
Curlin.....8-1

Using my contender shown above:

Scat......5-2
NoBiz.....4-1
Street....6-1
Curlin.....8-1

Secretariat
05-05-2007, 02:11 PM
Interesting picks. Haven't see Dave Schwartz's picks yet.

One other program I have is Lightning Profits. Top Myline doesn't usually win, but generally one of the top four does who is an overlay.

LP picks and odds.

1. Hardspun - 4.32/1
2. Cowtown Cat - 5.62/1
3. Curlin - 8.62/1
4. Street Sense - 10.76/1

Also in the May 2006 issue of American Turf Monthly Mark Cramer suggested "A Contrarian Method" in Search of the Automatic Bet for the Derby
Here's how Cramer's picks go today based on that method:

1. Curlin - 12
2. Hardspun - 10
3. Circular Quay - 9
4. No Biz Like Show Biz - 8

Should be fun.

Tom
05-05-2007, 02:52 PM
Val...

Tom
05-05-2007, 03:08 PM
Validator Energy Generator

shanta
05-05-2007, 03:36 PM
Val...

Go head Tom !
:eek:

singunner
05-05-2007, 06:45 PM
Well that wasn't such a bad prediction at all. Thought Great Hunter was coming up a bit at the end, but I guess he ran out of steam. I wish it was easier to look into the mechanics of my program to see where some of the results come from. I'll have to work on that.

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2007, 07:33 PM
PA,
I liked your analysis. It is interesting to compare
it with a ranking based on odds computed from the
Oaks Derby double will pays:


Your program improves the ranking of Any Given
Saturday, Dominican, Teufelsberg, Stormello,
Storm In May, and Sam P. while downgrading
Zanjero, Hard Spun, Coaltown Cat, Great Hunter
and Tiago in comparison with the public's
consensus in establishing the Oaks favorite.

Is your ranking taking track condition into
account?

Those rankings were based on a fast track. I ended up betting both Street Sense and Curlin to win, as I felt given my line of 3-1 on Street Sense and getting 9/2 on the board, he was the best value, and I couldn't give that up. Curlin ran a great race but really wasn't much of a value at 5-1, but I stubbornly bet him anyway.....

Oh well....a profit is a profit...

Maji
05-05-2007, 07:42 PM
There was a mess up in my numbers and luckily(?) I found it.

The picks for the KY Derby should be 8 - 7 - 2 instead of what I have in the second post of this thread.

I am playing an exacta box with these 3.

The box did well for a home grown system when compared with other pro stuff :)

the_fat_man
05-05-2007, 07:43 PM
Those rankings were based on a fast track. I ended up betting both Street Sense and Curlin to win, as I felt given my line of 3-1 on Street Sense and getting 9/2 on the board, he was the best value, and I couldn't give that up. Curlin ran a great race but really wasn't much of a value at 5-1, but I stubbornly bet him anyway.....

Oh well....a profit is a profit...

I think betting both to win was probably the best play. I had a hunch about the winner of the 9th and, rather than betting to win, hooked him up in doubles with Curlin (primarily) and SS. Had no idea what they were paying but figured it had to be somewhere around $100, and it didn't really make sense for me to spread any further in the 10th. As it is, I'd have missed the exacta and been bitching about Curlin's bad trip and SS' good trip.

We live to fight another day.

Tom
05-05-2007, 07:50 PM
I bet 46 had that one - right in his %M range and top 5 TE.

formula_2002
05-05-2007, 08:40 PM
FORM THE SELECTIONS FORUM
(and all these plays were close, but outside of my models!!)

BEST I CAN SAY ABOUT TODAY WAS THE KD WPS RETURN

$24 PLAYED (WPS), $50.40 RETURNED!!!

JustRalph
05-05-2007, 11:04 PM
Like a dumbass I took wildandcrazyguy off of my super ticket. If Sedgefield would have kept his neck in front of wildandcrazy It would have been one serious party at the Justralph house tonight...........I had the next three on the ticket........... :bang:

Chalk up another good Derby for Equisim...........

Indulto
05-06-2007, 03:38 AM
I think betting both to win was probably the best play. I had a hunch about the winner of the 9th and, rather than betting to win, hooked him up in doubles with Curlin (primarily) and SS. Had no idea what they were paying but figured it had to be somewhere around $100, and it didn't really make sense for me to spread any further in the 10th. As it is, I'd have missed the exacta and been bitching about Curlin's bad trip and SS' good trip.

We live to fight another day.Well, so much for both Nobiz and Scat -- the two I couldn't separate. NO acCOUNTing for taste. Tagg disappointed bigg, but was no matcher for Pletcher. ;)

I wonder what Pletcher's owners are thinking with five logical contenders out of the money? Maybe they should reconsider small operations like those of Nafsger, Jones, or even Tagg. Did their horses get their appropriate share of the trainer's attention and detailed focus? Were they kept out of an optimal prep in order to avoid healthy competition and spread the wealth/success around? Did they benefit from the game of musical chairs played by the stable's riding talent? Is there too much reliance on veterinary talent?

I realize that multiple-Derby-entrant trainers like Pletcher, Asmussen, and O'Neill all have capable assistants who play a role in their success much as Pletcher himself did for Lukas. It's certainly debatable whether he's been able to clone himself. Of course there's no substitute for having the right horse, but nobody get's the shot at having one that Pletcher does.

Perhaps like the NYRA business model, the Lukas-inspired far-flung-fortunes-facade may warrant replacement by a more competitive paradigm.

cj
05-06-2007, 05:20 AM
My figures were posted as the Race of the Week for the whole card. It was a very nice day.

http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/DerbyCard.htm

46zilzal
05-06-2007, 11:36 AM
I bet 46 had that one - right in his %M range and top 5 TE.
Yes they were....Remember colts in the 68+ % median don't win this race.

I went back over my notes and had five question marks next to Hard Spun and the words written in the margin :"Positional front runner, remnant speed, Out??????"

chrisl
05-06-2007, 11:59 AM
EQUISIM... got me the top two, anyone do any better? what a good day, even made a little money,found time for a great BBQ..Chrisl

Secretariat
05-06-2007, 01:15 PM
Hit the tri with Lightning Profits boxing top four, and POL consensus helped elim Cowtown Gal leaving TEM picking Street Sense. AOdds Gold PCR rating had Street Sense on Top and Hardspun for third so nice exact box there, but had curlin further down.

I also have Equisim, and have charted how well the sim horse has hit the Derby over the last 11 years now. Fairly decent.

The Equisim Derby sim horses who have won over the last eleven years are:

1997 - Silver Charm - 10.00
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus - 6.60
2003 - Funny Cide - 27.60

This year it had Hardspun who ran well but placed. I need to go back an review how well it did for boxed exactas and tris, but from a Win persepctive only it had 11 sim attempts 3 wins, 27% win, and a 2.01 ROI for the Derby per dollar bet. One coudl say the same or Taulbot's Raq pace calcualtor figure as well who has hit 3 of 11. Just replace Funny Cide with Charismatic though and you've an even higher ROI.

Anyone have something that has hit the Derby 40-50% on top over the last eleven years. I've seen nothing able to do that.

Secretariat
05-06-2007, 01:30 PM
Jr,

I am curious what pacelines you chose for the Sim for those races. I used the defaults provided by the program and got this.

chrisl
05-06-2007, 02:28 PM
I used Profiler picks with default pacelines
#7 Street sense
#8 Hardspun
#12 Nobiz like showbiz
First derby using ES, it did very well at the window..Chrisl

Kelso
05-06-2007, 04:28 PM
Tagg disappointed bigg, but was no matcher for Pletcher.


:D

JustRalph
05-06-2007, 04:45 PM
Jr,

I am curious what pacelines you chose for the Sim for those races. I used the defaults provided by the program and got this.

I went thru and chose the races that I thought were the "best" for each horse. I have reset it since. So I can't be exact. But that is basically what I did. *** Always pick your own pacelines in Equisim.

I notice you didn't have War Emblem on your list of Derby winners picked by ES? I am pretty sure ES picked him as the winner?

Btw, I get lots of questions about ES. Tons this week in email and such. But one tip I haven't given out in a while is this.

On the "Fractions Screen" if you ever have a horse that has the top E1 speed and the top "Late" rating.............go to the window with both fists. Now if you look at Street Sense he has a top E1 of 112, only two points below the top E1 in the race. But he has the top late. The only problem I had with this rating was that it was in the Breeders cup Juvie. I was suspicious of that, but later came to realize that the conditions were exactly the same with a more seasoned horse who was working lights out. So, it was a no brainer. Even if you take out the breeders cup juvie he was head and shoulders above the rest on the fractions screen. This scenario rarely occurs (war emblem) but when it does.........load up.

I have only had this scenario a couple of times a year (remember, I don't play much anymore) but it has been very lucrative. It may sound like a no brainer to some experienced players. But in ES you can see this kind of thing with two clicks...........the last time I had this scenario was last year on a visit to Sam Houston. In the last race of the night on the turf down there I had a horse that was 10-1 and fit this bill. On the cheaper horses you have to remember that they don't perform as consistently (duh?) but I saw this in the form via Equisim at the last minute and dropped a nice win bet on the horse and he led the whole way and held on for a decent win and gave me a nice going away present . It fit yesterday, and came out nicely.

Secretariat
05-06-2007, 10:25 PM
JR,

Good stuff on the program. I play around with Equisim, but it is not my program of choice. It is a good one. Your tips are indicative of someone who really is getting the most out of it and good advice.

I checked the 2002 Derby Sim and War Emblem comes up third just using the siggested pacelines. Medaglia D'oro is listed as winning the Sim.

But I think your point is that use your own paceline selection rather than relying on the suggested ones. Good advice and I'm sure with better common sense paceline selection than the defaults it would do better.

This brings up a key point - does Equisim allow for the user to set up an automated paceline selection process with certain rules (for example avoid sloppy tracks or certain distance parameters or avoid trouble races, etc....).

Chirs,

Use of the Profiler vs .the Sim....Did you profile past Derby's only OR Churchill just this year or what critiera?

JustRalph
05-07-2007, 12:38 AM
JR,
This brings up a key point - does Equisim allow for the user to set up an automated paceline selection process with certain rules (for example avoid sloppy tracks or certain distance parameters or avoid trouble races, etc....).


yes it does. But it is limited unless you are saving charts and have a database of results etc. I don't use much of that stuff. It takes too much work to keep up with it. But if you are a database guy (I use the default database, and it still does pretty well on most tracks, it is huge though. I got it from Nathan a while back, but it is old and out of date) the profiler (where I use my old database) is a huge tool if you ask me. But I primarily use the sim to compare horses running lines. I was around when ES was young and it didn't do much more than that early on. But in my opine it is the strength of the product. Especially if you don't want to spend a bunch of time chasing chart files etc. this thing has paid for itself a gazillion times. See the basic Sim settings in graphic below. You can find this under the "Simulation" menu.

The paceline selection will cause you to lose races too. If you don't double check which line has been used. *****Always Pick your own pacelines***

46zilzal
05-07-2007, 01:16 AM
It's really interesting to see how many "far out" peripheral factors that have nothing directly due to the horse that many of these programs use for decision making.

JustRalph
05-07-2007, 01:43 AM
It's really interesting to see how many "far out" peripheral factors that have nothing directly due to the horse that many of these programs use for decision making.

such as?

46zilzal
05-07-2007, 10:59 AM
Things that have nothing to do with the horse's racing itself.

Tom
05-07-2007, 11:37 AM
....and even more interesting how well many of them work. Some that do not even look at pace or speed.

Jeff P
05-07-2007, 04:28 PM
It's really interesting to see how many "far out" peripheral factors that have nothing directly due to the horse that many of these programs use for decision making.Why attack algorithms found in programs? Does your way have to be the only way?


As Ralph said in the first post of this thread:I actually think a 20 horse race with this kind of volatility is probably unfair to any software.......but it could be fun...........anybody game?A lot of members responded. I for one find it really interesting to look at the output of other programs in a race like this. Looking at the software output posted in this thread tells me that there is some quality software out there.

In order of appearance, here is a recap of the pre-race posts made within this thread where a member had one or more contenders in their top 5 that could have led to a nice derby day score:

JustRalph
posted Equisim output picking his own pacelines:
HARD SPUN - top choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

betovernetcapper
posted The Capper output:
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2

JimG
posted MPH output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
HARD SPUN - 3rd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

also posted Val4 output:
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Jeff P
posted JCapper output:
HARD SPUN - top choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
STREET SENSE - 3rd choice - won at 9-2

Kitts
posted AllInOne V6 output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

richrosa
posted handicappingos.com output:
STREET SENSE - 4th choice - won at 9-2

timtam
posted the output of several programs:
Classy Profits output:
HARD SPUN - 3rd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

Max 21 output:
CURLIN - 2nd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Double Dozen output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2

Winergy output:
HARD SPUN - 2nd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
STREET SENSE - 5th choice - won at 9-2

Jake
posted his own software output:
HARD SPUN - 2nd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

Gordon Pine
posted his own contender rating:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2

levinmpa
posted Scott PCR:
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
HARD SPUN - 2nd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

PaceAdvantage
posted his own software output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

JustRalph
posted Equisim output again this time using the Sim:
HARD SPUN - top choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
STREET SENSE - 4th choice - won at 9-2

Indulto
posted an analysis based on Oaks-Derby double will pays:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 2nd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Jingle
posted MPH I output:
STREET SENSE - co top choice - won at 9-2

chrisl
posted Equisim Profiler output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
HARD SPUN - 2nd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
CURLIN - co 4th choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Secretariat
posted POL output using TEM:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2

also posted POL output using XA:
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

also posted AOdds Gold top 5 PRC:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
HARD SPUN - 3rd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

also posted AOdds' Comp Speed:
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

eqitec
posted his software output:
STREET SENSE - top choice - won at 9-2
HARD SPUN - 4th choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
CURLIN - 5th choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Cato
posted TMM uotput:
CURLIN - 2nd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

singunner
posted his program's output:
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2
IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY - 5th choice - finished 4th at 28-1

Maji
posted his own software output:
HARD SPUN - top choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Tom
posted HTR Velocity readouts:
STREET SENSE - 3rd choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 4th choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

also posted HTR K-Line output:
CURLIN - 4th choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

also posted his contender output:
STREET SENSE - 3rd choice - won at 9-2
CURLIN - 4th choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1

Secretariat
posted Lightning Profits output:
HARD SPUN - top choice - finished 2nd at 10-1
CURLIN - 3rd choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
STREET SENSE - 4th choice - won at 9-2

also posted Mark Cramer's suggested "Contrarian Method":
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
HARD SPUN - 2nd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

Tom
posted Valadator Match Up output 3f + total pace:
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2

also posted Validator Energy Generator output:
CURLIN - top choice - finshed 3rd at 5-1
STREET SENSE - 2nd choice - won at 9-2
HARD SPUN - 3rd choice - finished 2nd at 10-1

If I left anybody out or mis-quoted your analysis I apologize. It wasn't intentional. My point for posting a recap of the pre-race posts in this thread was to point out that there is a lot of good software out there... and that many posters identified contenders pre-race in this thread that could have been used to get a nice derby day score... To me it really doesn't matter if software uses so called "far out" peripheral factors.

I say let the results speak for themselves.


-jp

.

46zilzal
05-07-2007, 04:38 PM
Ah! the internet where disagree becomes attack......baloney

JustRalph
05-07-2007, 04:45 PM
Damn, viewing all those picks in one post makes me wonder how Hard Spun went off so high? Jeff is right, it was pretty good thread. considering it was a 20 horse race and all..........you could have skipped reading all that other crap about the Derby and just jumped into this thread for ten minutes.

Thanks for tying it up for me Jeff :jump:

Lefty
05-07-2007, 05:27 PM
zilly, I see where some disagree with you, but damned if i can find any attacks.

Jeff P
05-07-2007, 06:05 PM
Ok. I'm big enough to admit when I've made a mistake. "Attack" is too strong a word. I'll re-phrase my previous post from: Why attack algorithms found in programs? Does your way have to be the only way?to read as follows:

Why argue with success? Seems to me results produced by algorithms found in programs speak for themselves.




-jp

.

46zilzal
05-07-2007, 06:46 PM
Then you don't adhere to this stuff any longer: "Earlier this year I noticed an alarming trend. At tracks all over North America, the program's more obvious contenders were consistently opening as the heavy favorite whenever the first flash of betting for a new race appeared on the toteboard. In race after race, the top ranked JRating horse was opening at 4/5 or 6/5 or 8/5 while the actual morning line favorite would be something like 3/1 or 7/2 or 4/1. It was obvious that somebody somewhere was playing some very serious money these horses. On weekends, at tracks like AQU, GP, and SA I'd estimate somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000 in JCapper money alone was landing on these horses in the win pools. Throughout the months of January and February, 2006 - when I first really started noticing this trend, the odds on my contenders would (thankfully) almost always eventually drift up as the betting on each race played out. But the handwriting was clearly on the wall."

There is no way to know where the money comes from unless you are betting it. NO ONE software makes that much a difference. Never had, never will......The sheets of Thorograph don't even have THAT notable ian influence by themselves.

Jeff P
05-07-2007, 07:16 PM
Then you don't adhere to this stuff any longer: "Earlier this year I noticed an alarming trend.... Wow.

For the record, I stand by my earlier post. Every word of it. Especially the part that you bolded.

Tell you what, if you really want to debate this again (or any other topic for that matter) let's not ruin this thread for everyone else. PM me if you want to discuss it privately, or start a new thread (or bump the original) if you want to do it publicly.



-jp

.

PaceAdvantage
05-07-2007, 07:34 PM
Excellent advice Jeff!

Oh, and for the record, my output had Curlin as the second choice.....

Beethoven
05-07-2007, 08:29 PM
Hi Guys!

I'm a new member (just signed on today), so I didn't get to post this before the race.

P.D. Mahalik's MMTRX shows what we all suspected: namely, that several horses had good chances. In the stats section, I've highlighted the best stats in light blue and close-to-best in yellow.

I'm a beginner, so on the basis of this I picked Hard Spun as the most likely to win, but I also chose Street Sense (Thank Goodness!) based on his very high SF 3B SPD of 111, which showed up outstanding on these stats. I also remember thinking that the MMTRX didn't show Curlin with as much of a basis for winning as the hype made him out to be,

But it's a tool, not a selection picker. I scraped in with a win, but P.D. Mahalik hit the trifecta paying $444 on a $2 ticket. So, there's no substitute for good handicapping. ;)

By the way, I'm missing a couple of elements in my MMTRX (my fault) and I could use an upload of the MMTRX app and the Schema, if anyone has it. I'll pay you for your trouble. P.D. (Dave) Mahalik is on vacation for two weeks and I'm twiddling my thumbs in the meantime.

Greets to all of you! There are some very intelligent postings on these forums.


Beets
aka Beethoven

Maji
05-07-2007, 11:12 PM
Great work Jeff to compile the results. Thanks for your hard work.:)

keilan
05-08-2007, 01:30 AM
My homegrown program picked “Beethoven” 1st, 2nd and 3rd but then what program doesn’t luv beauty and appliances ;)



Welcome aboard

Beethoven
05-08-2007, 03:46 AM
Aren't you a Sweetie! Thanks, Hon.

shanta
05-08-2007, 10:50 AM
My homegrown program picked “Beethoven” 1st, 2nd and 3rd but then what program doesn’t luv beauty and appliances ;)


:lol: :lol: :lol:

wes
05-08-2007, 11:13 AM
Race 10 CD 10 05/05/07 10fur D 3yrN G1 Purse= 2000000
P# Horse Lx ML SyQ P1 P2 LP TP Beav CPL% {Par=107 } OP Fm Wpt L/R POW
Pars--> 96 107 102 20 *1 *2 *3
7 STREET.: 4 S 2 80 93 118 211 211 27 89^101 0 2/11 6 106 21 98
12~NOBIZ .: 8 E 7 83 98 106 204 204 16 95^ 98 0 6/21 6 102 28 96
8~HARD S.: 15 E 6 101 112 91 203 200 8 85^ 95 0 4/ 6 0 90 42 96
14 SCAT D.: 10 EP5 82 95 108 203 199 17 92^ 97 0 4/ 4 2 106 35 95
6~COWTOW.: 20 EP6 76 92 107 199 198 8 86^ 94 0 3/ 3 6 92 28 95
2~CURLIN.:7/2 EP5 81 96 102 198 199 22 94 94 0 6/ 9 6 101 21 95
16 CIRCUL.: 8 S 0 80 99 102 201 194 30 89 93 0 11/ 9 0 107 56 94
18 ANY GI.: 12 EP5 85 96 104 200 199 12 86^ 94 0 3/12 6 88 28 94
17 STORME.: 30 EP8 99 110 90 200 193 18 87^ 95 0 1/ 4 2 90 35 93
10 TEUFLE.: 30 E 5 84 94 101 195 195 12 81^ 92 0 1/ 1 6 76 21 91
20 GREAT .: 15 P 3 90 98 97 195 190 12 87^ 95 0 3/ 9 6 76 21 91
3 ZANJER.: 30 S 3 80 93 100 193 191 12 78^ 94 0 1/ 2 6 101 21 91
1~SEDGEF.: 50 EP6 100 107 94 201 184 8 73^ 84 0 1/ 1 2 81 29 91
9~LIQUID.: 30 E 7 91 100 94 194 184 12 86^ 94 0 1/ 7 6 90 28 91
19 DOMINI.: 20 P 3 76 81 108 189 192 10 78^ 90 0 0/ 2 6 80 21 90
13 SAM P..: 20 EP6 90 95 97 192 186 10 81^ 91 0 2/ 3 6 86 28 90
5~IMAWIL.: 50 P 0 86 100 93 193 180 8 80^ 92 0 0/ 1 2 75 35 89
15~TIAGO..: 15 P 1 77 90 96 186 181 14 84^ 86 0 0/ 1 6 114 28 88
11~BWANA .: 50 P 2 87 89 96 185 181 4 70^ 88 0 1/ 5 6 97 28 87
4~STORM .: 30 E 5 67 80 98 178 165 12 78 82 0 1/ 1 5 73 21 82
Hit ENTER for next race.


Yeast is still doing well

wes

keilan
05-08-2007, 12:02 PM
Aren't you a Sweetie! Thanks, Hon.


"And ain't you perceptive" :kiss:

Tom
05-08-2007, 12:44 PM
Get a room! :eek:

Gibbon
05-08-2007, 09:45 PM
...Why attack algorithms found in programs? Does your way have to be the only way... All right, after all the fancy programs and proprietary performance figures....


Anyone notice – once again simply picking a
representative line and use the DRF fig + TV
outperformed most everyone. Who needs Beyer
or Moss.

Just asking.

PaceAdvantage
05-09-2007, 03:01 AM
Anyone notice – once again simply picking a
representative line and use the DRF fig + TV
outperformed most everyone. Who needs Beyer
or Moss.

I might have noticed if somebody had bothered to post it BEFORE the race. Heck, I'll even take AFTER the race now just to see how much this "method" outperformed "most everyone."

Thanks.

Gibbon
05-09-2007, 07:23 PM
PA,

The DRF is copyrighted material. There is no need for me to stir up trouble.

Lets not focus on one race. Take any race randomly on a random track. I'll bet you a cup of coffee the OLD DRF speed rating plus track variant will perform just as well as any fancy computer program.

But it is the KD after all.
PDF file: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2007/pps/ky_derby_basic.pdf

Street Sence last on synthetic track – no go.
Previous two races sp+tv= 110 and 107 respectively.

Hard Spun last synthetic.
Previous two ... 109 and 105

Curlin last 107. Lightly raced!!

Any Given Sunday two back 110 at Tampa. Cheap track.

Teulfesberg three back 112 gate to wire winner – unlikely today.

Again, lets not take on one race. Any race, any track DRF sp+tv will equal
the high priced sheets and many computer programs.


Check it out.

Jeff P
05-09-2007, 08:16 PM
Lets not focus on one race. Take any race randomly on a random track. I'll bet you a cup of coffee the OLD DRF speed rating plus track variant will perform just as well as any fancy computer program.andAgain, lets not take on one race. Any race, any track DRF sp+tv will equal
the high priced sheets and many computer programs.

I can't speak for the output generated by every handicapping program out there...

But I do know first hand happens if you do a large sample (long term study) comparison between plain old DRF SR + V vs. some of the better proprietary software generated numbers... and I can guarantee you that the actual long term performance (from both a win percent and flat bet win roi perspective) of proprietary software generated numbers consistently blows the performance of plain old DRF SR + V completely out of the water.



-jp

.

garyoz
05-09-2007, 08:17 PM
Gibbon, What's your methodology? Last race, best last 2/3, best of last 4? You need to have a standardized approach. You can't just arbitrarily pick a race for each horse. The classic 1994 Stat Study of Speed ratings showed the DRF + variant underfperformed most other Speed Ratings in percentage of winners but outperformed others by ROI because of higher average payoffs. The best performer was Ragozin sheets. So also need to decide what metric your want to use for "outperform."

No way you are going to outperform software like HTR or HSH. Also, won't come close to HDW's PSR rating. Maybe Ken Massa has published a study comparing his K-rating to DRF plus variant in one of his monthly newsletters?

Anyway, I'd fade you on the coffee bet.

Gibbon
05-09-2007, 10:10 PM
Garoz,

All very good points!

I prefer the old Sartin definition of a usable paceline.
Last 90 days – same or similar distance – same surface.
For layoff horses naturally you have no choice but to go back 6 months or more for a representative pace line.

I also prefer same trainer/jockey whenever possible. Same class track as well.

I go beyond the DRF variant. I do not make voodoo adjustment. {sheets players}

Variants need to be apples to apples not apples to avocados.
Example, NYRA stakes variants are generally 10 +/- 3
NYRA allowance non winners of 2/3 variant 17 +/- 3
ordinary race at Mountaineer – variants 22 +/- 5
Adjustment made only when obviously needed to be made.

HTR fine program for the serious player.
Cramer's PSR – sure, consistently gets 30% winners no handicapping – at a loss of .20cents per dollar. PSR stats updated daily http://www.rspos.com/cgi-bin/yawps/index.cgi .

...The classic 1994 Stat Study of Speed ratings... classic????? Were there 100,000 sample races per category so as not to fall prey to "Regression toward the mean?”

When one goes to the doctor for care – would you take a medicine based on one study alone?

Was the comparative speed study reproducible by other experts in the field and same conclusions drawn. One study proves nothing!! May suggest something assuming proper controllers were in place.....

Gibbon
05-09-2007, 10:44 PM
Jeff P,

Would it surprise you if I told you – you are not the only one with a database {SQL?} going back to Henry the Fifth???

I'd give you a call tomorrow if I could buy your masterpiece with the original J Rating. Not some watered down {new} JCapper Power Rating or Qrating. Many already adjust the Bris power ratings.

Ahhh, but the bloated egos of computer experts. The game mighty collapse if we all used the same apps.

My methods are simple. Based on reality. Not the tides of the oceans or the gravitational pull of the planet Mars as it effect the racing surface and racing bias. {Sheet Players.}

What did Einstein have to say about simplicity???????






______________________________________
Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen. ~ Albert Einstein

headhawg
05-09-2007, 11:29 PM
Ahhh, but the bloated egos of computer experts.Ahhh, but the incessant ramblings of pompous asses...

DanG
05-10-2007, 12:22 AM
Interesting thread and thanks too many people who really put some time into this… :ThmbUp:

My past midnight two cents… :sleeping:

I understand why the casual racing fan places such an emphasis on the Derby. However,… if someone is serious enough to learn professional quality software / ratings etc… I hope they wouldn’t take this one race out of context.

It is after all 1 event of 54,000+ a year in North America.

To draw conclusions or worse yet make a decision on the merits of ANY approach based on this unusual event is silly IMHO.

I’m not saying the Derby is just another race. It’s obviously our marquee event and without question offers the most uninformed money we see each year, but it is just one event.

A truly good player willing to put in the work can make most quality information work for them. There is no doubt however that some software / approach will fit you better than others. The only thing I would recommend is to check them out first hand and ask opinions of people you respect.

Jeff P
05-10-2007, 12:34 AM
I’m not saying the Derby is just another race. It’s obviously our marquee event and without question offers the most uninformed money we see each year, but it is just one event.
DanG, extremely well said. Sometimes that last part is all too hard to forget.


-jp

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