Your Derby Pick & Why

[cj's dad]

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.

[douglasw32]

SCAT DADDY

Because...http://spreadsheets.google.com:80/pub?key=pK74cTgFt4SPw3AHy0i6IXA
and http://kennedyscorridor.blogspot.com/2007/04/20-20-derby-vision-part-1.html

Besides my home brewed DISTANCE FIGURE program ranks him as the imroving horse that can top the rest of them.
:)

[46zilzal]

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.
He's a polytrack specialist.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

He's a polytrack specialist.

These are words that Matt Carothers tosses about easily. A Polytrack Specialist will be defined as only running well on the artificial surface. I might call Dominican a Polytrack Specialist if he runs poorly in the Triple Crown, and then returns to the AWT with a winning effort.

I think it might be a little early to tag him with this distinction. Granted, all 3 of his wins are on the AWT, and if he never wins on the dirt, I will bow to your astute assessment.

I just think it is a little soon this early in his career..........

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[Hajck Hillstrom]

SCAT DADDY

Because...http://spreadsheets.google.com:80/pub?key=pK74cTgFt4SPw3AHy0i6IXA
and http://kennedyscorridor.blogspot.com/2007/04/20-20-derby-vision-part-1.html

Besides my home brewed DISTANCE FIGURE program ranks him as the imroving horse that can top the rest of them.
:) Thank you for the links. It is always good to have assessments confirmed.

Three horse box SCATDADDY, STREET SENSE, COWTOWN CAT with ALL in the Superfecta. 6,7,14 with 6,7,14, with 6,7,14,16,19,20 with ALL.

Carry on, Carry on,

Hajck Hillstrom

[douglasw32]

I should mention I have no connection with the blog I linked to I found it on a google search, then it was on equidaily.com, the dude has alot of stats and that is some darn good results.

[ponyplayerdotca]

This is my one and only post on who I think will win this year's Derby.

Heading into the Kentucky Derby.....

STREET SENSE

Third off the layoff (third of his current cycle)
Hard run on tricky dirt at Tampa (wins by a snoot)
Hard run on fake dirt at Keeneland (loses by a snoot in a weird race)
Win over the Churchill Downs dirt (BC Juvenile)
Faced top competition thoughout his last 3 races

Synthetic-to-dirt angle: horses running over Polytrack seem to comeback and race stronger over conventional dirt in their next race (similar to the turf-to-dirt angle)

And if you buy into the "maybe he didn't like the PolyTrack" argument, not a bad race for a compromised race, is it?

Adversity builds character, and his two close finishes may provide him with the needed "battle tested" ingredient that benefits him in the long stretch on Saturday. Nafzger has him ready I believe.

First BC Juvenile Champion to actually comeback and win the Kentucky Derby? I think this is the year it happens. He's my win pick. Looking for 6-1 or so on the odds board. :ThmbUp:

[Bubbles]

I like Scat Daddy by a slim margin over Street Sense. The horse just keeps on winning. In the 14 hole, he'll have as good a chance of a clean break as possible, and should settle in off the leaders nicely. In regards to Street Sense, I draw a line through his BC win. There is NO way that scenario will play Saturday. He has looked very sharp this year, and merits placing near the top.

Meanwhile, the main question is: What horses do you plug in BEHIND those two? :confused:

[depalma13]

After today's draw, I see this as Curlin's race to lose. Taking Stormello off of the pace and gift wrapping an inside post position to a horse who they could have completely screwed up by forcing him outside, makes this race far easier to handicap than it could have been.

We now have two horses who will go for the lead, Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat. Tueflesberg will secure third, leaving fourth for Curlin. The half will go in nearly :48. He is not going to have to worry about Derby traffic. Midway on teh far turn Cowtown Cat will check out of it and Curlin will find himself looming large on a tiring Hard Spun at the top of the stretch. The closers have no shot and the stalkers will try to catch him. Unfortunately for the rest of the field, this is where he is at his best. The horse will cruise home by 3 1/2 lengths.

Nobiz Like Showbiz fills out the exacta, with Hard Spun holding on for third.

Of course a hundred other things could happen that could cost him the race, but I'll go with my scenerio.

[Jinxed]

Because he is owned by good friends of mine that have loads of faith in him..I'm going with "Hard Spun"..great odds right now of 15/1. He has a rookie trainer and a rookier jocky in Mario Pino, but his chances are good from the 8 hole. I'm putting $100.00 across the board on him.

Good luck to all of you with your Derby picks.
Jinxed :jump:

[JPinMaryland]

We now have two horses who will go for the lead, Hard Spun and Cowtown Cat. Tueflesberg will secure third, leaving fourth for Curlin.
.

How is Tuefl. going to secure third when he breaks poorly in every single race he's been in ? NOt that the rest of the post doesnt make sense, it could happen, I just think Teuf. has a real problem in a 20 horse field.

[gIracing]

break poorly or not, there is not THAT much speed in the derby, and if he breaks poorly he will just exert that much more entergy to get TO the lead..in 10-15 races, it's what he does. he's been doing it since he was 2 and he won't stop now. and in all honesty it's his best chance to win, if he has one at all. His only wish to win is to get the lead and take them in about another :50 half, which isn't going ot happen, but that's his only chance.

[cj's dad]

Meanwhile, the main question is: What horses do you plug in BEHIND those two? :confused:[/QUOTE]

As I told your father at Saratoga, "that's why God made the all button"

Good Luck Bubbles

[GaryG]

CURLIN....He has shown brilliance and is steadily improving. He looks to me like he will go 10f. The nature of racing is changing. Barbaro showed you could win it off a layoff. Cold deck exacta with Street Sense with a smaller reverse.

[pressman]

#14 with the #18,#19 And #20 underneath

[Bruddah]

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.

I will use your pick and Curlin on the top line of all my picks plus a $200 exacta with Curlin on top. They will be battling to the wire.

Good Luck to all and enjoy the greatest day in sports. :)

[DuncanPatch]

Teuflesberg to win or place close behind Street Sense, Scat Daddy for third.

Been watcing T-berg since last August at Saratoga. He's tough as nails, mentally unflappable, physically strong and -- ratable! He doesn't have to be on the lead and does better on Downs dirt than Keeneland polytrack. At last, luck has come to him: getting in at the 11th hour, getting a great post position. And (Besides: its time, after 133 years, for a woman trainer to be in the winner's circle.)

Street Sense has the Nafzger/Borel combo, and is himself a 3-year-old who has carried his 2-year-old form very well. He's fresh, fit, and adaptable to whatever the situation is once the gate opens.

Scat Daddy has a great turn of foot, can run all day, and is the best of Pletcher's gang.

My bias: I was in love with Johannesberg and now two of his sons get to pick up Dad's torch.

DuncanPatch

[how cliche]

Any Given Saturday...

is my top choice. The most compelling prep race of the year was The Tampa Bay Derby. What a horse race!!! Why JRV didn't choose him surprises me. Getting Gomez doesn't hurt and may help. All I need to see is that he's worked well. One thing I will add is that his 3rd place finish in the Wood enhances his odds on derby day a great deal. Many will be ready to toss him without looking at the circumstances involving his schedule for that race. When he came out of the Tampa Bay Derby, he was being trained for a race 4 weeks later, The Bluegrass. Not just with his workout schedule, but his galloping and jogging schedule as well. He missed his final work by running a week early, so in my opinion he ran as well as can be expected. With the wide trip and battle in the lane it could toughen him up a bit more. He could be sitting on a big one. Note the running profile for him in The Wood. Similar to Street Sense prior to his BC Juvie romp.

Any Given Saturday-Win.

Any Given Saturday & Street Sense-Exacta Box.

Trifecta-Those two back and forth in the win-show, place-show slots with all in the unoccupied slots.

I could be way off. Not uncommon. I'm playing to my opinion though. Those two to hit the board and that AGS represents the overlay to my style of prognosticating, seeing that I place him with a 15% chance of winning.

BTW, I believe Einstein is likely to win The Woodford Reserve.

[Ron]

My top three:

Street Sense
Scat Daddy
Cowtown Cat



Have a shot:

Any Given Saturday
Teuflesburg
Circular Quay

[fmhealth]

I believe that HARD SPUN may be the answer to this years Derby puzzle. He has the right amount of preps. Beyers moving in the right direction along with an advantageous post. He has a key "bullet" over the CD strip. Most Derby winners have had this "bullet". Appears to be able to press or stalk & not necessarily need the lead to win. Loves to WIN as shown by his 5 wins in 6 starts. This fellow could be ANYTHING. Certainly worth a wager at double digit odds IMHO.

I'll play him on top of SS, Curlin, Liquidity, NoBiz & The "Pletchers".

[ponypro]

1.Street Sense
2.Nobiz Like Showbiz
3.Great Hunter
4.Zanerjo

[wpayne1]

douglasw32; i think this year there is a flaw with the points earn because of the bluegrass race and how it was ran. It's a had race to use as handicaping tool; causing me to believe that the figures used to get the 20-20 is skewed this year. we will see saturday, however it was a great eye opener. nice thread

[chickenhead]

first year ever I don't have a pick. I think there are 6 horses good enough to win:

Curlin
NoBizLikeShobiz
AnyGivenSaturday
StreetSense
HardSpun
ScatDaddy

I am doubtful that Curlin is prepared to win on Saturday, so I am not going to play him at an expected short price. I am going to play the other 5 in multi race exotics, and I will look over the exacta probables to find some plays.

I just really don't see anything to strongly recommend one of those horses over the others, not enough to key any one of them.

Considering the size of the field, the nature of the race (and the crowd), and the expected odds on Curlin, I am expecting the whole lot of 5 to be overlaid in the pick 4.

Keeping it very simple.

[LemonSoupKid]

I think 7 can win, in likelihood, this order:

Scat Daddy
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Curlin
Cowtown Cat
Zanjero

... and the last 2 are longshots. I'm boxing the top 3 in an exacta and I love Daddy at 10-1. If Curlin wins, I'll chalk it up and get ready for a Triple Crown. I've really liked him, I just think this is a tough spot.

LSK

[bellsbendboy]

Street Sense towers over these. Using generally accepted handicapping practices, I can find no knocks on the champ. He is training awesome and has more positives than a California horse trainer.

The lone negative is he is going to come from behind and those types are always susceptible to traffic issues. With that said he can lay closer than many think. A total standout.

Tossing Curlin and Circular Quay, the former on seasoning the latter on his sore shins. Some of the others do not belong and whoever finishes in fourth will be beaten about a sixteenth of a mile. BBB

[JPinMaryland]

break poorly or not, there is not THAT much speed in the derby, and if he breaks poorly he will just exert that much more entergy to get TO the lead..in 10-15 races, it's what he does. he's been doing it since he was 2 and he won't stop now. and in all honesty it's his best chance to win, if he has one at all. His only wish to win is to get the lead and take them in about another :50 half, which isn't going ot happen, but that's his only chance.


I know that's what he does, Im just saying that he is going to have a lot more traffic to contend with to do this. Have you seen the start of the derby? it is not so easy to lose ground at the start and get to the lead as it is in other races.

[JPinMaryland]

first year ever I don't have a pick. I think there are 6 horses good enough to win:

Curlin
NoBizLikeShobiz
AnyGivenSaturday
StreetSense
HardSpun
ScatDaddy

I am doubtful that Curlin is prepared to win on Saturday, so I am not going to play him at an expected short price. I am going to play the other 5 in multi race exotics, and I will look over the exacta probables to find some plays.

I just really don't see anything to strongly recommend one of those horses over the others, not enough to key any one of them.

Considering the size of the field, the nature of the race (and the crowd), and the expected odds on Curlin, I am expecting the whole lot of 5 to be overlaid in the pick 4.

Keeping it very simple.

A suggestion? THrow a few more traditional (unlike SS) closers e.g. CQ, Zanjero and Tiago in there. Usually you see a mixture of runnign styles that fills up the trifecta and superfectas. :ThmbUp:

[JPinMaryland]

....Street Sense towers over these. ...The lone negative is he is going to come from behind and those types are always susceptible to traffic issues... BBB

He's not towering over many of late. He didnt tower over AGS in the TB derby and he didnt tower over Dominican, Zanjero in the last race. I think there are two issues with SS. He doesnt really tower over the field like he did on BC juv. day.

They say first impressions are lasting. I wonder how many of us are more impressed by his juv. then his last two? My guess is that much of the field has caught up to him, or that he had benefit of a rocket path at CD.

The other issue is that he's a sort of one run closer who may be able to make the lead but Im not at all sure he can hold the lead once he gets it. Unless he times it just right. Last two races suggest something of this sort.

I dont know why so many people like to say that closers have traffic issues. Dont all horses in the derby have traffic issues?

Who's more likely to over come a troubled start: a front runner or a closer?
More likely to overcome a bad PP?
There are plenty of front runners who run into traffic problems in the stretch, just take a look at the 2000 derby, or 1963 or 1975 or whatever. Its much harder for a front runner to get blindsided as he doesnt see it coming.

Who knows? maybe SS is the second coming of Assault...

[chickenhead]

A suggestion? THrow a few more traditional (unlike SS) closers e.g. CQ, Zanjero and Tiago in there. Usually you see a mixture of runnign styles that fills up the trifecta and superfectas. :ThmbUp:

This thread (and my post) are about who is going to win, not who might garbage truck their way up for fourth.

[uncbossfan]

Still have a lot of video to watch, but early leans...

Zanjero
Great Hunter
Curlin
Still not sure why I'm so gung ho on Zanjero, but I am.

[OTM Al]

Street Sense with small savers using AGS and Hard Spun. Street Sense has done well on the strip and unlike all others, especially well on a suped up Churchill strip as it will be Saturday. Was going to use SS and AGS in an exacta box but the 18 hole makes me decide to scale back on the amount to win for AGS. Hard Spun is built for this and plenty fast and still improving.

[Greyfox]

Tossing Curlin and Circular Quay, the former on seasoning the latter on his sore shins. BBB

I know Gomez has been more productive in the biggies on Pletcher horses than
Velazquez. But ...
1. are you sure that Velazquez didn't opt for this mount?
2. is it a "sure thing re: sore shins."

[JPinMaryland]

This thread (and my post) are about who is going to win, not who might garbage truck their way up for fourth.


YOu mentioned "multi race exotics" as well as "pick 4" in your post so I thought that was part of what it was about.

[douglasw32]

I agree, that blog is impressive so is that system...
but last night, I was sleeping "true story" I woke up and though WTF? the polytrack has never been an issue, so I went through the 20-20 stuff removing anything that nailed street sense on his last effort and boosting the points back UP, then could fall back to sleep :)

Now all day I am torn between Scat Daddy and Street Sense

The other thing that is bothering me is in any other race if everyone knew the trainer had lost 14 of those races in a row, would I be touching the horse with a win bet? it would be like having an isolated part of a larger trainer stat.

[wpayne1]

i think street sence & Scat daddy a good exacta box. i'm still stuck on Dominican as my long shot horse but hate his post position. after seeing the 20-20 thread i'm throwing in hard spun but i hated his blazing work i'll change my mind tomorrow. as of now
win--street sence
place--scat daddy
third---dominican
fouth--hard spun

just for you chickenhead, i threw in my 1$ super box bet. :D

[wpayne1]

I like Scat Daddy by a slim margin over Street Sense. The horse just keeps on winning. In the 14 hole, he'll have as good a chance of a clean break as possible, and should settle in off the leaders nicely. In regards to Street Sense, I draw a line through his BC win. There is NO way that scenario will play Saturday. He has looked very sharp this year, and merits placing near the top.

Meanwhile, the main question is: What horses do you plug in BEHIND those two? :confused:

i too like those two horses 1,2 for same reasons...but i like Dominican who is improving & last two races he had to check up a little on the strech run on both rushway and bluegrass and still hit the wire with alot left in him...i would bet him two win big but hate his post draw. so i.m betting #7,#14,#19/ over ???? not sure yet; tough to call maybe hard spun, CQ, or cowtown cat

[chickenhead]

YOu mentioned "multi race exotics" as well as "pick 4" in your post so I thought that was part of what it was about.

uhhh...emmmm....uhhh...nevermind.

[Cratos]

I like Dominican off of his Blue Grass effort. Similar to Lil E Tee, Dominican closed well and has some back turf breeding.I Would like to hear others comments.

I was leaning toward Street Sense until Curlin's Arkansas Derby and his 11.91 seconds in the last eighth of that race convinced me that he is primed for a major effort.

1-Curlin
2-Street Sense
3-Scat Daddy

Longshot - Great Hunter

[Tom]

It's ealry, and I will be really looking harder tomorrow, but as of now, Scat Daddy and No Biz are my top two. I really like No Box, and doubt I will come with a beter one. Scat Daddy is standing on top of HTR and screaming ME ME ME in my first pass at the Derby file. Suddenly, the race is getting really intersting.

[46zilzal]

Scat Daddy, Stormello, and No Biz will have to change history to win.....on the board is a better possibility however.

[kev]

I'm going with Any Given Saturday a lock to run 1st or 2nd. :ThmbUp:

[cnollfan]

Curlin. I like his combination of speed and tractability. The lack of seasoning is of course a negative, but many of the horses have negatives this year.

My main contenders are Hard Spun, Circular Quay and Any Given Saturday.
Some interest in Bwana Bull, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Sam P and Great Hunter.

[MNslappy]

Indeed, half the field will have to change history to win.

For people that like Nobiz Like SHOBIZ (if I see another 'W' in that spelling from people who should know better, I'm going to flip), I'd really like to get your take on blinkers and stuffing cotton balls in his ears.....meaning.....aren't you at all concerned about the crowd, 19 other horses, and all the distractions that seem to bother this one? Just curious, because I still don't know what to do with him.

[46zilzal]

chart prediction for NoBiz: "Prompted the pace two wide and continued with good courage down the backstretch but backed up in the lane in a good effort."

[LemonSoupKid]

picks are pretty nauseating. Who are you guys, Hank Goldberg proteges? It's like Point Determined and Bob and John all over again. Hilarious

[Tom]

Scat Daddy, Stormello, and No Biz will have to change history to win.....on the board is a better possibility however.

I hope all three are on the board - they are my top 3 right now. Gettingthis race down to 5 was a snap after the HTR file came out - very few meet my criteria of a derby horse this year.

[Pell Mell]

It seems to me to be too many quality horses that can set or press the pace for a stone closer to win. Many races are won from off the pace by horses that can run up front and there are several frontrunners in here that have shown closing ability.

1-Hard Spun...Trainer is either an idiot or a genius.

2-Cowtown Cat...Good speed but also good stalker

3-Curlin...speedy stalker but still has questions

4-Scat Daddy...most determined of all

5-Stormella...if he doesn't go for the lead could score major upset

[EasyRider]

I was leaning toward Street Sense until Curlin's Arkansas Derby and his 11.91 seconds in the last eighth of that race convinced me that he is primed for a major effort.

I noticed this as well but it seems that the pace of Curlin's last race was not as hot as those faced by ShoBiz or Scat Daddy. That being the case it makes sense that a Great horse like this one would have the extra energy left in it's final fraction of this race. I would guess that no one really knows the potential of this horse and since it can't be determined I assume the worst.

It seems to me that Scat Daddy and ShoBiz are almost equal but I will have to give it to Scat Daddy. Also since Street Sense and Curlin seem like Unknows to me and since the other two proven horses in this race are less then these I figure Scat Daddy is a better then 50% bet to Show. This being the case I will bet this horse to show and consider it a wise bet.

Until I lose it of course :D

Easyrider

[JustRalph]

Does anybody have any questions about the fractions in the Ark Derby?
As compared to the Wood Memorial? I am wondering how good this Ark Derby was? Any comments?

[WJ47]

I'm betting on Teuflesberg. I've always liked him and had a feeling he is going to do good. Which he already has, seeing he was purchased for only $9000 and has made $385,000. What a return on investment! He sure seems to get into his fair share of trouble though. It seems like he stumbles in half of his races! It's going to be tough to keep him out of trouble in a 20 horse field. I am concerned about the distance factor as well as he seems to need to be in front. But I've said since the Breeder's Cup that I was going to bet him if he made it to the Derby, so I'm going to follow through. :) He only lost by a tiny margin to Dominican and Street Smart, so he's really not that far fetched of a pick. LOL, I also get a kick out of his owner and trainer; Teuflesberg hadn't even broken his maiden yet and they were entering him in Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes races. It seems like they are having the time of their life with this horse and thats what the Derby is all about. :)

I also like Great Hunter, but he's got that horrendous post position. Circular Quay looks good too! I saw Curlin working out on HRTV and he looked like a big muscular colt with alot of power. I'm planning on watching a bunch of the prep races online tomorrow to see if any performances jump out at me.

Other than my sentimental pick of Teuflesberg, it looks like a pretty tough Derby to handicap.

I'm horrible at Derby picks though, I usually end up in love with a couple of horses and my mouth hanging open like an idiot when the actual winner crosses the finish line! :) I think the Giacomo Derby scarred me for life. :lol: I keep getting flashbacks of Tom Durkin saying, "It's Giacomo!" when I read these PPs.

[46zilzal]

I hope all three are on the board - they are my top 3 right now. Getting this race down to 5 was a snap after the HTR file came out - very few meet my criteria of a derby horse this year.
With their combined % medians out of proportion to all others since 1999, they were not hard to dismiss for the win. Now there is always a remnant speed horse (Contraenergy) who winds up in the money: A Lion Heart, Closing Argument, Peace Rules, Congaree etc.

[Tom]

My longshot horse, to hang on if the track is off, or if he just gets lucky, is Tueflesburg, or whatever. Look at his PPs and draw a line through all non-dirt races. I think he peaked early on and might be rebounding to form. At 30-1 or better, he is my saver wager out of my "Kicks and Giggles" Bankroll.

[crownx]

Easy race.. stop banging your heads...

NO Biz over Street Sense over ALL ( the race for 3rd is wide open) one of Pletchers horse might beat SS for 2nd, but I doubt it

[LutherCalvin]

Broke his Mdn in his first start winning by over 10 lengths - In the money in 5 straight graded races after that - Only two non-winning finishes he had trouble

[facorsig]

Liquidity - 4th place finisher in SA Derby won the Derby for a few consecutive years at beginning of decade, trouble line in same race

[uncbossfan]

Zanjero

He's been working great - just as good if not better than Curlin the fav. He comes from off the pace, but doesnt get cought too deep. He closed well on the rail at Keeneland - where nobody wanted to be. His jock is 2/2 on him. At age 2, he won at Keeneland then went to CD and ran a great race - with same jock. His last race was at Keenlenad on the Poly and he's back at CD with Bridgmohan back in the saddle. Also, if its a muddy track, he will love it! Plus he will be 25 - 1 or higher. Bombs away!

[46zilzal]

Broke his Mdn in his first start winning by over 10 lengths - In the money in 5 straight graded races after that - Only two non-winning finishes he had trouble
That one is FAST, no doubt, but over 10 furlongs. Precosity means speed. Stamina takes maturity and this one seems to have topped out. More water in the track the better his chances of showing up in the top 5.

[john del riccio]

My Derby selections:

Circular Quay
Street Sense
Scat Daddy
Curlin
Nobiz Like Shobiz


To see why, click on the link.

John

www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf (http://www.woodsideassociates.com/raceoftheweek/rotw.pdf)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/statusicon/user_online.gif

[douglasw32]

Here is Beyers View, Video
http://www.youbet.com/playingtowin/

[Bill Cullen]

Wet: Zangero (high off-track Tomlinson fig; on Jan 23rd at Fair Grounds he was 2nd best out of 15 working out that day at 5 furlongs in the slop)

Fast: Tiago (only horse in the Derby to run a triple digit Beyer AND win a Grade 1 race on the same day; had an excuse in his last race because of a slow start; the pace for the first and second calls at the Sanita Derby was almost par; the race ran true to form (except for Tiago's upset) as evidenced by the first, second, and third place favorites all finishing in the second, third, and forth spots).

[DirtTrack]

CURLIN!!!
Because he will win :eek:

[bellsbendboy]

J Pin Md If a horse is in front how does he run into traffic?

Greyfox 'Quay has been undergoing therapy twice a week for sore shins. The poly is much more forgiving than the CD surface.

Cratos I am told the fractions (late) Arkansas derby day were all quick.

By ANY 'capping measure 'Sense beats this bunch a pole. BBB

[delayjf]

Given that High pace figure and his Pedigree, I'm going with Any Given Saturday. His 2nd race back showed me he can rate. He got some good conditioning in that last race and should move forward.

Curlin looks for real off that last race. He's shown the most to date. But none have really shown the ability that one would expect from a Derby winner yet. Any one could improve to win.

[Wickel]

Any Given Saturday in a shocker. With Stormello inside of him-who will zip for the lead--then a couple of deep closers, AGS figures on moving in significantly before the first turn. If Gomez plays his cards right, he'll be sitting in the garden spot, clear on the outside when the real running begins. I expect Curlin to get swallowed up on the first turn. No Biz and Street could find some traffic early, too, if several figure to shoot for the front. AGS will sit chilly and let loose on the turn. His two stablemates--Scat Daddy and Circular Quay--worry me most. Toss them, along with Great Hunter and Tiago into the exotics.

[sam i am]

I like STREET SENSE I just think he is the best horse in the race.
Will use with NOBIZ again has good foundation and in great hands.
STORMELLO is the fastest horse in the race for a mile and an eighth I really think if he stayed in Cal instead of flying another 3000 miles for the Fla Derby he would be less then 10-1, I total forgive the Fla Derby, I expected a reaction after the gut wrenching FOY coming after a 3 mo layoff.

Of the last 50 derby winners 43 of them have been within 1 lng of the lead at the 8th pole. Stormello will be on most of my tix.

[NYPlayer]

I bet Street Sense in the Derby futures, so there's no sense in turning back now. It's kind-of-a one way street with those future bets. I was impressed with his devolopment as a 2yo, although his performance in the Bluegrass was a bit disappointing.

I also would love to bet Any Given Saturday. I hate his post position though, and this horse was ridden needlessly wide in Tampa and Aqueduct. Even if he runs a great number, the logistics of the racetrack and human stupidity may conspire against him.

Scat daddy is my third choice, but I just might use him as much as I do AGS.

Great Hunter is very intriguing, but again the post is a real negative. I'll use him in the triple though.

Hard Spun, Cowtown Cat, and a few others will round out the triple. I'll let the tote board guide me.

Good luck to everyone...this race is tough!

[Bignick63]

I respect Dominican but feel he has to get better off his last to win and I am not sure he will at thi point. His last 2 races came from nowhere and I am not sure if that was his ceiling right now. What do you think?

[Bignick63]

I agree with Street Sense. I got him on top. He could be a special horse.

[michiken]

Something bothers me about Street Sense.

Early in his career, he was running on the lead and then converted over to a closing style (S) horse. In the breeders cup, he definitely had the ability time advantage but the energy distribution of this was totally wrong. I am factoring in the rail bias and looking elsewhere.

From my figs, it looks like Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Stormello could be on the lead followed by Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield. I am hoping that all of these horses melt down and fall off the board.

Curlin appears to have beaten modest fractions but was convincing in the wins. It is hard to gage the pace scenario so I will use only in the exotics.

Storm in May, Liquidity, Bwana Bull, Sam P, Tuefelsberg, Hard Spun and No Biz Like show Biz are also my throwouts.

My top picks left with:

Circular Quay
Tiago
Cowtown Cat
Any Given Saturday
Zanjero
Dominican
Scat Daddy

I see AGS, Cowtown and Scat on the lead with the others closing. I give the closing nod to

Circular Quay - Dominican - Cowtown Cat - Tiago in any order.

[Loserdave]

Great Hunter. I liked how easily he moved in the Bob Lewis and the Bluegrass did not turn me off of him and at the end of Oaks day he is 26-1. :cool:

[headhawg]

Given that there is no superstar in here, I like Any Given Saturday especially on an off track. He's bred to go long and for the mud, and is one of the few in here with two triple digit CJs.

My other win contenders are Street Sense and Nobiz, and I will be using Circular Quay and Zanjero underneath in some ex/tri part wheel combos.

[Kelso]

Exacta Box: Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay

Wish I could afford: Cowtown Cat

Wish I knew why I'm not betting him: Curlin

Don't understand all the fuss: Street Sense (struggled in both Tampa and Keenland)

(Value Buy in Futures Pool: Teuflesberg at 53-1. Wouldn't that be somethin'!?! :jump: )


Many thanks to all the PA posters who have helped me arrive at my current state of hopeful confusion, blissful delusion ... and the ever-popular irrational exuberance.

Good luck to all.

[JPinMaryland]

From my figs, it looks like Hard Spun, Scat Daddy, Stormello could be on the lead followed by Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield. I am hoping that all of these horses melt down and fall off the board....

I see AGS, Cowtown and Scat on the lead with the others closing. I give the closing nod to

This is a very interesting post but you left out one important question: How fast will they go the first 3/4?

Help me with that.. :)

[Greyfox]

J
Greyfox 'Quay has been undergoing therapy twice a week for sore shins. The poly is much more forgiving than the CD surface.



Quay has been off two months.
D.W. Lukas was asked if he'd send a horse with that inadequate preparation.
He replied something to the effect.
"No. Neither would Todd unless something or someone told him to.."

There is "hype" both ways.
Those who brag a horse up. Those who brag a horse down.
Neither can be believed.
The bottom line is : The best horse in the Derby is C.Q.
But maybe not today!
This might be a prep or a test for the Preakness or Belmont.
The word is that this colt is sore. "A friend of a friend of a vet said so"
is the rumor. It's all over the net.
That may well be.
The problem, running wise , is that Quay, is a deep closer.
Traffic and whatever could be a problem even on a fair surface.
The track may determine whether or not it has any chance at all,
even if it isn't sore. In the meanwhile, I will play this one...but cautiously.

[JPinMaryland]

thanks for the tip, I am off to hammer Sedgfield now.

[cj's dad]

Harkening back to "Let It Ride" I think I will pull a "Trotter" here and review all of the posted selections and bet the one ( if there is one ) who no-one picked.

"You got a brother" ?

"Yeah, in Cleveland"

"Call him up, see who he Likes".

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[formula_2002]

RACE #10- STAKES. 1 1/4 Mile Dirt. Purse $2,000,000. Kentucky Derby
#8, 3 TIMES
#9, ONCE (Liquidity (KY))
LONG TERM CAPITAL LIKES "Liquidity", How ironic!!
THESE TWO BEAST BEST FIT MY MODEL, THEY FALL OUTSIDE OF THE MODEL, BUT IT'S THE BEST FIT.

[shanta]

This is a very interesting post but you left out one important question: How fast will they go the first 3/4?

Help me with that.. :)

1:10.4

[john del riccio]

Harkening back to "Let It Ride" I think I will pull a "Trotter" here and review all of the posted selections and bet the one ( if there is one ) who no-one picked.

"You got a brother" ?

"Yeah, in Cleveland"

"Call him up, see who he Likes".

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

that movie is a classic

[KingChas]

Greyfox;Quay has been off two months.
The word is that this colt is sore. "A friend of a friend of a vet said so"
is the rumor. It's all over the net.

I find this sort of strange when Johnny V. has a pick of 5 horses and chooses
a mount not ready to run. :confused:Unless this happened overnite?

Don't want to get into jock handicapping warfare here. :eek:

[Pell Mell]

Have liked Hard Spun since day one and will stick with him and expect him to make the trainer look like a genius instead of the idiot that he is.

Hard Spun
Cowtown Cat

I expect a battle to the wire with these two.

Scat Daddy and Curlin not far behind.

[andicap]

Having won last year with Barbaro (as predicted on the pages of PA) I'm shooting for a Double here with an energy analysis.

This year’s Derby will see betting on the light side for me for three reasons:

1. The dodgy weather in Louisville this week. If a bias appears that changes everything plus who knows which horses will like the muddy Churchill Downs surface? Energy profiles change markedly on wet surfaces.
2. Polytrack. The Blue Grass is a complete throwout with its ridiculous pace set-up. And who knows which horses’ Polytrack form will convert to dirt?
3. The field. Unlike a year ago when Barbaro was one of a few horses who fit the energy profile of the race pretty well there is no one this year who is an excellent match. .

To review here are the energy figures from HTR for the winners of the last eight Derbys. Pacelines taken from one of the last two Derby preps, preferably at 9f, but occasionally at 8.5f.. The first column represents conventional %E a la the Brohamer book. The second is based on the first call (4f) based on HTR figures.
(Sorry they don't line up)

Barbaro 51,24 39.25
Giacomo 51.02 38.77
Smarty Jones 51.26 42.71
Funny Cide 51.20 40.70
War Emblem 50.26 39.50
Monarchos 51.28 39.53
Fusiachi Peg 51.14 40.40

There are other requirements in the Derby Win Profile including optimum number of lifetime races, the pace-final velocity balance and a minimum late velocity figure.

The only horses who fit the first column energy profile in the last two races – and have even vaguely competitive final figures are Curlin, Imawildandcrazyguy, and Hard Spun.
Scat Daddy comes close with a 51.71. as does Dominican at 50.90 (and a 51.60 three races back),
Go three races back (you can eliminate some races due to Polytrack, etc.) and Scat Daddy and Nobizlikeshowbiz have good profiles, but at only 8f.
The following horses have dead first column profiles but are too slow. If they win, just shoot me now:

Sam P
Sedgefield
Bwana Bull
Zanjero (very very tangentially, three races back in a slow race.)

I am not expecting a heavy pace scenario so it’s possible a horse at the higher end of the energy scale could do well. Or an early speedball like War Emblem could put the field the sleep with a slow-fast set-up. The War Emblem scenario doesn’t seem likely because he had the best overall velocity in the race and there is no E horse with a slow-fast set up like he had with his final velocity.



That said, here are my top three picks for the race:

Scat Daddy -- While he doesn't fit the profile perfectly (51.70% in last race, and a better 51.44 three races back—but at 8f) is among the fastest horses in the race, has great pedigree, is training fantastically. Big question is whether he likes Churchill Downs surface.

Hard Spun – Perfect %E profile in last (51.33%) and required negative pace profile and six lifetime races are perfect. But his late speed falls markedly under those in the past.

Any Given Saturday – 52.58 %E at 9f in last. Ouch! But 50.58 %E two back at 8.5f at Tampa 51.30%E three back at 8.5f at Tampa. Has won at Churchill, a plus. Only negative is bad post position.


Other strong horses who just don't fit my Derby criteria are

Street Sense -- probably the best horse but doesn't fit win profile. Too much of a closer in a race where the pace should be honest but not so excessive that a big closer wins (like Giacomo.) %E is below 50%, like that of a turf horse. Big exotic factor though.

My best longshots in the exotics but not to win horses are

Cowtown Cat
Tiago
I'm a Wildandcrazyguy
Great Hunter

[46zilzal]

Curlin is without a doubt, a potentially great one. If he follows Rags to Riches yesterday, his numbers put him in the winners circle, BUT, he has to overcome 100+ of tradition that says otherwise. Street Sense has never run a bad race, but the only knock is that he comes from so far out of it, that the wet surface might impact on his run if traffic doesn't. Circular Quay, a one race wonder?, Any Given Saturday declining form but the "potential" for a win........Confusing even after looking at it for hours.....

I won't lose any sleep over not betting it straight up.

[GaryG]

I have liked Curlin with Street Sense underneath all along, no reason to change. Have live doubles going to each.

[Boris]

Curlin is without a doubt, a potentially great one. If he follows Rags to Riches yesterday, his numbers put him in the winners circle,



The R2R win yesterday will make it easier for Curlin backers to unload. As you finalize your choices, you look for whatever will help you say "yes". AGS is my choice at what I hope are ML odds or better.

Good luck to all.

[Tom]

Hey Andy....
You picked 3 of my top 5.
I got them using Pace/Speed number.

I think these help with energy as well.
I like the horse has to be able to imporve per to pac by 3 points to have the right energy.

Good luck.

[Greyfox]

Greyfox;Quay has been off two months.
The word is that this colt is sore. "A friend of a friend of a vet said so"
is the rumor. It's all over the net.

I find this sort of strange when Johnny V. has a pick of 5 horses and chooses
a mount not ready to run. :confused:Unless this happened overnite?

Don't want to get into jock handicapping warfare here. :eek:

I agree. This is a Tabor colt. I don't take tips. I don't heed rumors.
I'm playing the Quay.

[Bill Cullen]

Zanjero

He's been working great - just as good if not better than Curlin the fav. He comes from off the pace, but doesnt get cought too deep. He closed well on the rail at Keeneland - where nobody wanted to be. His jock is 2/2 on him. At age 2, he won at Keeneland then went to CD and ran a great race - with same jock. His last race was at Keenlenad on the Poly and he's back at CD with Bridgmohan back in the saddle. Also, if its a muddy track, he will love it! Plus he will be 25 - 1 or higher. Bombs away!


I agree with your analysis above. Also, I like the fact that Zangero worked 2nd best out of 15 in the slop at FG back in January.

Good Luck!

Bill C

[46zilzal]

chart prediction for NoBiz: "Prompted the pace two wide and continued with good courage down the backstretch but backed up in the lane in a good effort."
Almost word for word in the chart.....

[JPinMaryland]

They usually say something like "failed to sustain his rally" or "hung in deep stretch" rather than backed up. I havent seen the chart but I wonder...

[46zilzal]

okay word for word:"well placed while tracking the leaders from between horses, moved menacingly approaching
the final quarter but failed."

[depalma13]

How is Tuefl. going to secure third when he breaks poorly in every single race he's been in ? NOt that the rest of the post doesnt make sense, it could happen, I just think Teuf. has a real problem in a 20 horse field.

Had the right three horses up front, just couldn't get Curlin fourth. Also missed the half time by a couple of seconds. Curlin needed to get Sedgefield's spot, but that's racing.

[JPinMaryland]

Yeah Curlin might have had a shot if he could have gotten position earlier in the race. Speed to the left of him and to the right. He did make a major move on the turn to go from like 13th, it's impressive that he still made a serious move while running in a different part of the field.