Lets start from the back!

[uncbossfan]

As many of us agree, the Derby looks pretty wide open. Maybe it will be easier to start from the back.

Which horses are you definitley throwing out?

Teuflesberg
Sam P
Cowtown Cat
Imawildandcrazyguy
Sedgefield
Storm in May

[crownx]

agreed to all

but I might move Sam P to 4th or maybe 3rd in some supers.

[boomman]

As many of us agree, the Derby looks pretty wide open. Maybe it will be easier to start from the back.

Which horses are you definitley throwing out?

Teuflesberg
Sam P
Cowtown Cat
Imawildandcrazyguy
Sedgefield
Storm in May

Although I am still watching and going back over video replays, I can't imagine any circumstance in which I'll use Tueflesberg, Imawildandcrazyguy, Sedgefield or Storm in May....Still undecided on the other 2, but feeling is that I'll probably be using them in at least the 3rd "slot"......

Boomer

[gIracing]

Teuflesberg i'm betting if it's a sloppy track

Storm in May, it depends on how much you like Curlin. if you think Curlin is a superhorse, you can't throw out Storm in may. Although I am throwing him out


how could you possibly throw out Cowtown Cat? he hasn't done anyhting wrong. He's bred to win kentucky Derbies


I don't like the crop of SoCal shippers this year, so throw Sam P to the wolves

[uncbossfan]

how could you possibly throw out Cowtown Cat? he hasn't done anyhting wrong. He's bred to win kentucky Derbies


I am just very unimpressed with his last 2 races. He had a rail trip laying off very slow fractions in the Gotham 2 back, and beat a very weak field, and then set slow fractions and pulled away in the Illinois Derby, again beating a weak field. If I recall correctly, niether of those 2 races had another Derby contender in it. You can't bet them all and I just don't see Cowtown Cat being good enough to hit the board...to each his own though!

[gIracing]

that qualifies him a LONGSHOT.... but to just toss him out becuase you are not impressed with who he beat? he won a freakin grade 3 and a grade 1.

I'm not saying I'm all over him, I don't hvae him in my top 5... but he jumps up to say 25-30 to one.... you can't tell me you don't see the value in that. Plus he's bred to go the distance

[Ron]

how could you possibly throw out Cowtown Cat? he hasn't done anyhting wrong. He's bred to win kentucky Derbies


I am just very unimpressed with his last 2 races. He had a rail trip laying off very slow fractions in the Gotham 2 back, and beat a very weak field, and then set slow fractions and pulled away in the Illinois Derby, again beating a weak field. If I recall correctly, niether of those 2 races had another Derby contender in it. You can't bet them all and I just don't see Cowtown Cat being good enough to hit the board...to each his own though!

Hard Spun beat weak fields, not sure what the point is with that statement.

[gIracing]

Hard Spun beat weak fields, not sure what the point is with that statement.


exactly. plus technically hard spun lost to a horse that got trounced by curlin, so you would have to soss hard spun as well

[jjm323]

I predict Cowtown Cat will finish last.

[cnollfan]

My Derby crossouts:

Cowtown Cat -- set slow pace on biased strip in the Illinois Derby.
Dominican -- never close on dirt.
Imawildandcrazyguy -- all-around not good enough.
Scat Daddy -- personal choice. I got shut out of betting him at 44-1 in the first pari-mutuel future book and I am not going to chase him at 10-1.
Storm in May -- Jockey Leyva overmatched.
Street Sense -- His big-margin BC win was aided by the rail bias that day and a jockey who knew what to do with it. All his other races find him noses better or worse than many horses who are five times his odds today.
Teuflesberg -- not good enough.
Tiago -- The S.A. Derby was peculiar, and none of his other races put him in the same zip code as these.

Liquidity, Sam P, Sedgefield, Stormello and Zanjero are probably crossouts for me too but I haven't made up my mind for sure on them.

[gIracing]

I predict Cowtown Cat will finish last.


actually, I want to take back my earlier post. I went back and looked at every race cowtown cat has ran, and believe it or not, he was the FIRST horse I tossed... it's amazing what spotting your horse in the right places can do. won't come close

[gIracing]

Storm in May

not so fast my friend.. go back and look at all his races.. this the only jockey that seems to "get" this horse. he lkes to have something to run at to his right. He is EXTREMELY ratable and has faced some quality turf horses that arne't on the derby trail. he has a tendency to have street sense syndrome and ride the rail (the horse that is) but he WILL get the distance and has one of the quickest turns of foot I have seen all year (look at the arkansas derby and pretend curlin isn't there, then go back and look at the sushine millions dash). However he needs a pace to run at. He is probably a better, no, i KNOW he is a better turf horse than on the dirt.

Now, he wont' win... but if like Curlin, you would do yourself justice by putting storm in may in your exotics, he won't embarass himself

[Ron]

Storm in May

not so fast my friend.. go back and look at all his races.. this the only jockey that seems to "get" this horse. he lkes to have something to run at to his right. He is EXTREMELY ratable and has faced some quality turf horses that arne't on the derby trail. he has a tendency to have street sense syndrome and ride the rail (the horse that is) but he WILL get the distance and has one of the quickest turns of foot I have seen all year (look at the arkansas derby and pretend curlin isn't there, then go back and look at the sushine millions dash). However he needs a pace to run at. He is probably a better, no, i KNOW he is a better turf horse than on the dirt.

Now, he wont' win... but if like Curlin, you would do yourself justice by putting storm in may in your exotics, he won't embarass himself

eye eye!

[gIracing]

I'm on one tonight... I'm throwing hard spun out and because sedefield's only claim to fame (on dirt) was finishing 2nd to Hard spun in the lane's end, he goes as well. Would have been alot better placed in the Crown Royal

[douglasw32]

Post 1 and post 20 as far as I can tell have never won in the last 20 or so derby's- TOSS

[cnollfan]

Sorry, I beg to differ. Since a random distribution of post position wins in a 20-horse race would be 1/20, I can't view 0/20 as terribly significant.

According to Barry Meadow, the inside four pps are 2 for 80 in the last 20 years. I'm not sure what to make of that.

[gIracing]

i plan on spending a little bit of money on this race so I had to put in as much research as I possibly could.

a couple of things jump out to me..

* Zanjero is a pretty nice horse, plus he has a win over the track already. Head to head against Circular Quay he beat him once (the Risen when Quay ran into trouble) and then held his own in the louisiana derby. got beat but not by a whole lot, plus he went 4 wide and Quay took the rail. one could make a very good argument that if he took the exact same path as Quay that race Zanjero wins it. Out of ALL the longshots, this is the only one I see having a realistic chance of coming first... i'm not saying he's IS but if you told me to pick a horse that had odds of say, 15 to 1 or better this is your best bet. Will not have a problem getitng the distance at all. Do yourself a favor and find a way to put him in your exotics. Circular Quay has proven himself against some of the best horses in the country and Zanjero held his own against him.

* Storm in may is an exotic play only if you like Curlin.. if you don't like Curlin, then you don't lke Storm in May. If you DO like Curlin, Storm in may would be a good play at the bottom of exotics. won't win but won't embarras himself either.. he is blind in one eye and he seems (or the jockey that is going to be riding him) to love to hit the rail a la street sense, that worries me. If you made me pick a finish order, 1-2-3, he wont' be in it, but becuase i'm trying ot make money, I could very easily see a situtation where he gets up for 3rd or 4th

* the more research I do, the more I love Curlin. This in my eyes, is a 2 horse race when it's all said and done, and curlin is one the two hroses. There are two horses in this race whoose talent TOWERS over the other horses in this field. I like Curlin becuse he is very versitle, can rate, has proven he can lay closer to the lead, has the highest crusing speed of alot of the hroses in the field and when he is asked to "go" he is gone on queue. his athletic abaility keeps him out of tight spots, unlike some horses. he beat Officer Rocket, who beat Street Sense. He trounced beat tefulesberg, who damn near beat Street Sense, great hunter, the entire bluegrass crew (tefulesberg, while I don't like him, has been the most valuable horse in the field, because he has literarly raced against every horse in the field.. he's a great barometer)

* Street Sense will not win this race. The more I watch street sense, the more I realize that the BC race was more of a fluke than all the other races. As a 3 year old, he has beated Any Given Saturday, that's it.. and that's not saying alot. It's not that he likes the rail, Borel seems to have to need to have the rail to win... I've seen plently of his races to see what happens when he doesn't get that rail trip. Besides that BC race, which I'm to the point know I don't know what happened that day, he doesn't show a lot of turn of foot, and I don't know if he can get the distance... won't embarass himself but he would be a money burner if you are playing him to win.

+ My origianl thought was to put nobiz like showbiz in my top 3.. not anymore. I think he's very talented, I just think from watching his gallop outs and watching how he finishes races, plus his racing style, plus his ability to act up and loose engergy drurning races, that he won't get the distance. Plus, Scat Daddy is clearly the better horse of the two, the only time nobiz beat him, Scat Daddy, a pure stalker if there ever was one, locked in with him in a speed duel and still only lost by maybe a length in a half. The best I see him doing under the best circumstances is 4th

* I like Scat Daddy alot. I think it's a 2 horse race, but I see a senerio where he wins it as well (he's not one of my two horses) Will be ITM that much you can count on. will not have a problem getting the distance, has proven himself time and time again, but doesnt' have the best turn of foot in the world, and has been beaten by other horses in this field (Circular Quay) bad enough for me to rank him higher than Scat Daddy

* Circular Quay- I admit... i wasn't high on him until today. I hadn't really seen him race, i saw him get a rail skimming ride in the LA Derby and thought nothing of it. Boy was I wrong. This is Sikly Sullivan Jr. Not only is distance not a problem, or at least won't be, I think it benefits him more than anyone else, probably along with Zanjero. When he decides to make a move, he's GONE. has beaten every horse worthwhile (execpt curlin) in the field, and soundly. He lost once on the all weather track and once where he had a horse break down in front of him. JV choose him for a reason, he got his butt handed to him when he was riding Scat DAddy last year by him, and i mean got HANDED to him. As far as natural ability , this is the only horse I see on Curlin's level, but I like Curlin a little more becuase his running style isn't as condusive to trip trouble. But he will be getting a win ticket from me as well.

* You might as well throw every horse from the west coast out. It's pathetic how bad they are this year. Great Hunter is the best of a bad bunch and was a really good two year old but hasn't progressed. Too bad Tiz Wonderful isn't on the trail anymore, he was the West Coast's best hope.

* the more races I watch, the more I realize how true the bluegrass really was to form. Great hunter just isn't that good anymore. Dominican loves polytrack and Street Sense, see above. I honestly believe you put that race on Dirt and Zanjero wins it by 2


* If I don't like STreet Sense, I ovbiously don't like Any Given Saturday, and I don't thik he will get the distance

* I don't know what happened to Officer Rocket, but he was a great 2YO.. dominican almost beat Street Sense in a stakes in august last year, and both were beaten, pretty soundly, by officer rocket


* Every race Dominican has won was on poly. He did come a good 3rd to Any Given Saturday a while back.. but I don't like Any given saturday

there you have it.

In my eyes I can SEE one of 4 horses wining (in this order): Curlin, Cingular Quay, Scat Daddy and Zanjero.

I can see Street Sense, Storm and May, getting u for minor awards. now I have 2 days or so to fingure out what to do with this information.

[cnollfan]

Nice post, gIracing.

Can you elaborate a bit on why you don't like Any Given Saturday? Thanks.

[Jinxed]

Because I know the owners of Hard Spun and they have so much faith in him...against all odds he is my longshot pick for the derby. I'm used to the favorite not winning, so I'm willing to go with 15/1 odds on a first time trainer at the derby and a first time jockey...I may be broke at the end of the day but I'm putting $100.00 across the board on Hard Spun. He could just surprise you all..he is loving the polytrack and he is working out fantastically.
Good Luck,
Jinxed :jump:

[gIracing]

Nice post, gIracing.

Can you elaborate a bit on why you don't like Any Given Saturday? Thanks.


It's pretty simple. First, I would be shocked if he can get the distance. it's not a knock on him, most horses that are bred can't. Actually I like him more than I like Street Sense. if you look harder at that Tampa Bay Derby and not listen to the media, you will see a fading horse (any given saturday) having enough guts to loose by a nostril to a charging closer, after dueling for at least 2 furlongs. That's not what I classify as a "duel", that's a horse having to skim the rail and still have trouble passing a tied one. Nobiz showed in the Wood how you are supposed to handle a situtation like that, and he didn't even come from behind.

Who has he beaten? he beat Sam P last year.. even if you concide STreet Sense, I like Nobiz Better than I like either one of them, and I don't like Nobiz to win anyway.

As far as hard spun, give the money to charity.... it would have better use.

On Hard Spun, one thing I noticed is that he has to have the lead or be darn close to it to be effective. The one race they tried to rate him (SW Steaks) they lost, to a horse that got thumped by every other real contender on the card (I told you who was the best barometer in the race, he's literarly faced everyone). hard track, soft track, water, etc, if you let Tefulsberg get away from you, you aren't a derby horse. plain and simple. go back and look at what circular quay did to him last year. Look at what scat daddy did to him (twice). Look at what Nobiz did to him. (then look at what he did to street sense, and then you see why I'm not as high on him, although pace did play some part in the bluegrass)

To top it all off, he will be in a duel with 2 other horses (at least) and he has trouble going a mile and a 1/16th against tough company, what makes you think he can take a mile and a quarter in the best race of his life?

And to throw ALL that in there, look at this work he had the other day... his owners might be nice people, but they had nothing to do with that.. he didn't have a chance to begin with, then you use your horse up on a tuesday?

[JPinMaryland]

On Hard Spun, one thing I noticed is that he has to have the lead or be darn close to it to be effective. The one race they tried to rate him (SW Steaks) they lost, to a horse that got thumped by every other real contender on the card

He rated fine in the Lanes End, here are his fractions: :22.4, :24.3 (:47.2), :24.1 (:48.4), :25.0 (:49.1), :12.4 (:37.4), 1:49.2.

What is wrong with that? :confused:

[gIracing]

He rated fine in the Lanes End, here are his fractions: :22.4, :24.3 (:47.2), :24.1 (:48.4), :25.0 (:49.1), :12.4 (:37.4), 1:49.2.

What is wrong with that? :confused:


not rate in the sense of timing, rate in the sense of he doesn't seem to do well chasing a target.


even if you concede that he CAN rate, which after watching 5 of his races I don't think he likes looking at horse butt or having dirt in his face.... he STILL hasn't beaten anyone, he can't get the distance and he's been used up in the workout.

Watch Curlin/Cingular Quay and then watch Hard Spun and you are watching two totally different classes of horses. it's that simple.

[MNslappy]

not rate in the sense of timing, rate in the sense of he doesn't seem to do well chasing a target.

I think the man knows what "rate" means

:lol:

Watch the Lanes End again. Look at the line from that race. HS stalked a decent pace in hand until the top of the turn and then won by 3 and a half. He certainly looked pretty good rating in that race.

[Jinxed]

As far as Hard Spun goes this is much more than knowing the owners. He had a bullet workout at 5 fg. which tells me "he is loving the Churchill track" and that's important. He has drawbacks with a rookie trainer and a rookie jockey I agree..they may eat Mario alive...but on the other hand I have watched this horse for a very long time and my picking him is not based on knowing the owner, but seeing what the horse can accomplish. Did he take an erratic route to get to the derby...yes he did. Maybe that is why a lot of people don't really see the ability he possesses.

If the money ends up going to the track then so be it. I'm not about to waste money on a false favorite just because....I'm looking for a true longshot and Hard Spun is just that.

I respect all of your opinions. I am sure you are much better handicappers than I am...but with due respect this horse deserves to be considered and I think he is being completely overlooked. He is continually getting better...each race.

Hard Spun is my pick...I already made a donation to charity thank you very much :) If I lose I will lose gracefully knowing I bet the horse I liked.

Good luck to all of you..
Jinxed :ThmbUp:

[JPinMaryland]

The horse looks like he can rate. His finish times suggest he maybe able to get 10f. To finish in 25 sec. is pretty good for a front runner type. Maybe it's too good? Maybe too fast for him to finish well, but so far he looks good.

There's no way to know if he's been used up in a work out. I dont know how some guy on the internet would know this when even the trainer doesnt know.

HIs form may be somewhat enhanced by the Lanes End at TP; other horses also seemed to fire career bests in that race.

[Bubbles]

My immediate tosses:

Sedgefield
Storm in May
Liquidity
Teuflesberg
Stormello (no way he wins, not from 17 and being an early speed horse)

[gIracing]

The horse looks like he can rate. His finish times suggest he maybe able to get 10f. To finish in 25 sec. is pretty good for a front runner type. Maybe it's too good? Maybe too fast for him to finish well, but so far he looks good.

There's no way to know if he's been used up in a work out. I dont know how some guy on the internet would know this when even the trainer doesnt know.

HIs form may be somewhat enhanced by the Lanes End at TP; other horses also seemed to fire career bests in that race.

I will admit, hard spun was one of the tougher throwouts of mine. but this is why i eventually thew him out.

the only possible way for him to get the distance is to run it at or slower than he ran the lane's end. The Derby is usually ran somewhere about 45 second halfs give or take, and becuase the quality of horse he is going to have to face in the derby is tougher, they are going to run the 2nd half faster than the horses in the lanes end did as well.

visually, the lanes end was darn impressive, but if a derby horse is supposed to be able to run a sub 25 second quarter to close, closer or not. These aren't allowence horses

and I actually like hard spun. he might get a win wager from me if his odds are above 20ish to one, but I'm not placing my wager around him (will be curlin and cingular quay)

throw in there the workout and I'm skeptical. Jeff Segal agreed with me on Target Louisville... it can't possibly be a good thing, the best case senerio about the workout is that it wasn't too bad and didn't take too much out of him.

then visually, you can't possibly look at all of curlin's races, all of hard spuns races, and all of cincular quay's races, and tell me hard spun is on the same level.

I will probably end up tossing storm in may as well. the more i look at his last race, that was the best effort he could have possibly given.. he ran in like 1:52ish, trying his absolute best.. Curlin won for fun at 1:50 and 2.



As far as liquitidy, he's still eligable for A non other than, he sho uldn't even be allowed to sleep in the stalls at churchill. But O'Neil could be sending him just to setup great hunter.

[JPinMaryland]

You dont have to closer in sub 25 to win. Just check out Carry Back in 1961. It all depends on how the track is playing, although yeah typicall you do want to run under 25...

Hard Spuns a front runner anyway, if he can finish in 25 1/2 on the front end he could very well win. Just look up Spend a Buck one of the greatest performances in derby history.

Hell Kuai King won on the front end running a 27 sec. final, dont ask me what happened in that race, it was a merry go round race.

[gIracing]

You dont have to closer in sub 25 to win. Just check out Carry Back in 1961. It all depends on how the track is playing, although yeah typicall you do want to run under 25...

Hard Spuns a front runner anyway, if he can finish in 25 1/2 on the front end he could very well win. Just look up Spend a Buck one of the greatest performances in derby history.

Hell Kuai King won on the front end running a 27 sec. final, dont ask me what happened in that race, it was a merry go round race.

:lol:

Please don't tell me you just used a race that was ran 46 years ago as a reference to horse speed.

he won in 2:04 and 2 right?

Do you know that's the second slowest Derby time in the last 50 years? wiht Sunday Silence being the first.

Now, again not saying it can't happen, but more times than not, if you are rolloing in at 2:04 ish, you are going to be towards the middle or back of the pack. Smarty Jones ran a 2:04 flat but the track was sloppy. You really need to be able to run a sub 2:02 to have a realistic shot at the derby.

[gIracing]

Im stoked because the horse I am in LOVE with, NOBODY is talking about and might shoot up to 15ish to one, just because he hasn't been seen in awhile

[Bubbles]

Im stoked because the horse I am in LOVE with, NOBODY is talking about and might shoot up to 15ish to one, just because he hasn't been seen in awhileWild guess: Circular Quay? I like the horse underneath my top two (Scat Daddy and Street Sense), for sure, along with many others.

Besides, what's with the secrecy? Millions will go into the Derby pool, no need to worry about us driving the price of your horse down! ;)

[Robert Fischer]

1st cuts (out of exotics)

Sedgefield - not at this class on dirt
Storm in May - distance limitations
Imawildandcrazyguy - distance limitations, not at this class
Cowtown Cat - distance limitations
Teuflesberg - distance limitations, not at this class on dirt
Bwana Bull - not at this class
Dominican - distance limitations, not at this class on dirt

[JPinMaryland]

:lol:

Please don't tell me you just used a race that was ran 46 years ago as a reference to horse speed.

he won in 2:04 and 2 right

You're so smart. Here are some fractions from a Ky derby:

22.75; 24.25; 24.4; 25.6; 25 (2.01)

Tell me what year it was.

[JPinMaryland]

That one above is for a particular horse, not the fractions for the race. That horse didnt win.

Here's another one, a closer that everyone should remember, he finished in 25.4. Final time a little over 2.01. Care to name him? :jump:

[gIracing]

lol, does it matter? this isn't a pisisng contest. All I am saying, and you know I'm right, is that the norm to WIN a derby is about 2:02ish. I can guess that the fractions of that race were probably from a race a long time ago for a horse that probably won, but again... if I told you that hard spun would get 2:04flat, would you go put your live savings on him?

[gIracing]

Wild guess: Circular Quay? I like the horse underneath my top two (Scat Daddy and Street Sense), for sure, along with many others.

Besides, what's with the secrecy? Millions will go into the Derby pool, no need to worry about us driving the price of your horse down! ;)


yes I like him alot. I mean I'm not guessing that the entire country is going to miss him, but I bet he creaps up to over 10 to 1... that's all I need.

[JPinMaryland]

lol, does it matter? this isn't a pisisng contest. All I am saying, and you know I'm right, is that the norm to WIN a derby is about 2:02ish. I can guess that the fractions of that race were probably from a race a long time ago for a horse that probably won, but again... if I told you that hard spun would get 2:04flat, would you go put your live savings on him?

It is difficult to understand much of what you are trying to say, but one pt. is that derby times have not changed much if any during the last 47 years or so.

ANother is that there are enuf closers who dont run under 25 and win. Heres another finished in 26.77/final time 2.02+. Name: Real Quiet. There are plenty of them if you go through the records, which you havent.

ANother pt. more to the pt. is that you said that if Hard Spun runs lke he did in the Lane's End, he probably wont win. That is quite absurd, he runs a final fraction in 25.2 he could sure as hell win on the front end. I dont know what the numbers say, but I guess that of all the horses that were in front in the derby and finished in 25 1/2 or less, I'll bet over half have won. There arent too many that can do that.

You seem to have an odd sense of what sort of times are needed to win; if Hard Spun hadnt won on polytrack he prolly would be chalk...

[gIracing]

I came up with the number 2:02 not by sheer luck, but by taking all of the finishing times for the last 50 or so years and guestimating a cutoff.

Yes, I can see there are alot of horses that have ran over 2:02 and won the derby.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Derby_Winners



But 2:02 is not 2:04 which is what YOU said, not me.

the only horses that have run a 2:04 or worse and won are
Carry Back, Cannonade, Sunday Silence, and Smarty Jones, who did it on an off track so I throw out. 4 out of 45ish years.

now, this is not the strongest croup of competiors, looking at the beyer figures for the hroses, so I doubt anyone runs a sub 2:02 this year, but still.

and what I am saying is, if you don't at least think your horse can run a 2:02, you don't need to be in the race, not that if you run anything over a 2:02, you might as well pack up.

Maybe I should have said 2:02 and 3 or so, but still, that's still a second and a half.
the bottom line is, if the BEST hard spun can do is to hope to get a lead trip, and run a 2:04, he will have an extremely tough time finding the winners circle

[JPinMaryland]

But 2:02 is not 2:04 which is what YOU said, not me.




I never said this. Show me where I said this.. :confused:

You know what? I am not even going back and reading the older posts. if you can find me a post in this thread where I said anything about running 2;04 I will MAIL YOU POSTAGE FREE the prize * I was going to use for a handicapping contest I intend to post in a few minutes.

* Postage and handling pre paid anywhere in the US and Canada. If you outside US and Canada you can pay shipping at cost of U.S. mail whichever method you prefer.

[ranchwest]

Won't finish first:

Storm in May -- bred well, but jock is 1/59 in routes
Iamwildandcrazy -- breeding below this level
Sedgefield -- not much to recommend
Teuflesberg -- will stop, trainer oh-fer in graded stakes
Liquidity -- done by the second turn
Any Given Saturday -- won't get the distance

[ranchwest]

My immediate tosses:

Sedgefield
Storm in May
Liquidity
Teuflesberg
Stormello (no way he wins, not from 17 and being an early speed horse)

Stormello hasn't shown me what I'd like to see, but he's very well bred. I can't toss him completely. He's in my top 8 because I can't toss his bloodlines.

[Niko]

"yes I like him alot. I mean I'm not guessing that the entire country is going to miss him, but I bet he creaps up to over 10 to 1... that's all I need."

And then you'll tell us after the race that you had the horse? There's a couple that are below 10-1 ML. If you're not going to tell us who the horse is, why even tell us you like a horse?



I like a horse too...Any Given Saturday...oops there goes my price.. Probably go off at 8-1 to 12-1. May or may not win. There's others that I can see beating him and he could have a lot of trouble with running style and post, but you've got to take a stand somewhere.