What has shaped your opinion of Polytrack?

[uncbossfan]

I see a lot of Polytrack talk on here - most negative. I'm curious though what factors into your opinion on polytrack?

Do you dislike it because you find it hard to handicap?
It takes early speed away?
It's hard to compare with other dirt tracks and times?

Or do you like it for reasons like myself - large fields, Turfway is right next to my house and Keeneland is only 80 miles away, seems to produce more longshots.

Why do you like or dislike the polytrack?

[crownx]

I think it is fine, but the transition period is a total pain, for the reasons you listed.Of course a good american never likes the Euro 's getting it right before us..

[Tom]

Poly track been very very good to me.
I love it, like Spam:
Not real, but still tasty!

[JimG]

I think Polytrack is creating golden opportunities for horse player's willing to do the work and adapt.

As far as whether it is safer, I think the horsemen and veterinarians would be the best judge of that. I am neither, so I will take a pass.

Jim

[Tom]

Exactly, Jim. I caught a monster horse and exacta at Turfway this winter.....one of the biggest hits of my lifetime, on a horse I mental made 9-2 tops, but I hoped I would get 3-1 on him. Yaghtzee! I just don't see those on dirt.

[skate]

the future... will.

[Robert Fischer]

To be honest I enjoy dirt racing. Traditionalist isn't the right word but its close , aesthetics isn't either close again (thesaurus wanted :D )...

I love polytrack(AWT) for a meet as part of a circuit and also as a solution to poor weather areas (although really bad weather and cold isn't advisable). I love it as a training track.

For now, the surface provides an edge to those handicappers in tune with all factors relating to a surface switch (pedigree,running style...). For now. Of course if it becomes the standard, that edge will in fact disappear. The edge will then possible shift to the few remaining "dirt dinosaurs" in a kind of flipped over reality:cool: .

There is currently an edge to be had, but I hate the idea of everything switching over and losing out on some of the brilliant dirt horses and racing.

--------------------------------
Hear are some classic examples of AWT handicapping and there are many more:

Cantabria (Dansili) - Bobby Frankel Filly had the fastest 8.5furlong race of the previous hollywood meet, next race enters in at Santa Anita main track for a mid level california stakes (El Encino Stakes).
Keys - Dansili is a terrible dirt sire (and may well be the best AWT sire) , this horse Cantabria was entered in an effort to get some black type. Even in a 6th horse field there were enough solid allowance level horses in this field to render a Dansili horse little to no chance of winning. Cantabria goes off at a low price, finishes 5th of 6 and gives the handicapper a dream situation of 4 real contenders and a juicy value - $1 payouts of 150 for the trifecta and $50 for the exacta. - Cantabria followed this race with a strong win on the hillside turf course at Santa Anita.

Chatain - Really good dirt horse has never run a slow race and simply explodes in the middle pace. Entered at 9furlongs on the keeneland AWT surface, goes off at heavy favorite with little to no chance of placing. Strong payouts especially for those willing to use trifecta and superfecta pools.
Probably wins next race if well placed on dirt or even at say a 7furlong polytrack distance.

Breeders Cup juvenile fillies 2006 - several contenders had increased value do to the fact their form was "marred" previous race or two over the Keeneland surface.

Starbase (Tale of the cat) - from a top AWT sire with previous success at Keeneland escaped many (including myself) in the Lexington as he was a key to cashing a nice exacta. Observations of the surface and how the key jockeys were riding (scared to lead or want to lead) was a key factor as well.


Breeders Cup Classic 2008:confused: Santa Anita AWT - In 2006 shippers in seek of breeding glory - George Washington and Dillon Thomas(both Danehill) were almost automatic tosses due to their pedigree. Will a Dansili or a Danehill or a Japanese turf star ship in and win our biggest "dirt" race for older horses? Very likely IMO if Santa Anita officials do not carefully moniter/discourage this from happening. (won't say this again $$$)

[robert99]

Polytrack is almost a different sport. Horses have to be trained, ridden and handicapped differently. Applying speed figures in a simplistic way is a loser.
Many thought the consistent track conditions would make speed figures even easier - it didn't and they have largely given up.

In UK, we have the reverse process for potential loss of tradition. Many of the turf tracks are looking towards installing the low cost, low maintenace polytracks which can be raced on day after day - turf can only be raced on for 3-5 days without being wrecked - one day in wet weather.

[46zilzal]

A friend posted a different comment elsewhere:

"I saw an interesting horse last week at Keenland. Forget the name, but
it had 9 prior starts, all on PolyTrack. They were trying it on the
turf. It had some fair tries but was still a maiden. It went off as the
fave or close to it. It's still a maiden.

Ray Kerrison had a good column in the NY Post yesterday about the lack
of racing experience in this years Derby field and all the breakdowns
and fragileness that has been bred into the thoroughbred of this
generation. Lot of sense in that. Makes you wonder whether Keenland, et.
al., is trying to really do something good or trying to keep selling
unsound breedings."

[shanta]

I see a lot of Polytrack talk on here - most negative. I'm curious though what factors into your opinion on polytrack?
Why do you like or dislike the polytrack?

For me the most important factor is can I PROFIT monetarily on the surface.

So far the answer has varied:
1) Keeneland - win % for me DOWN significantly while avg win $ and actual money won is UP significantly. Horses that fit a certain pattern for me that pay avg of $8.50 on dirt have consistently averaged almost $17.40 on Keenelands surface. Financially a gold mine for the 2nd meet in a row since the surface change.

Pros - I am able to get a handle on winning patterns from the result charts and apply them come live races.

Cons - The wide variance in FIRST fractions pace of race taken from pp's screw me up when looking at the race at hand. 2 reasons this happens.

First is the jocks holding the darn horses back too much early on. 2nd is track maintenance "fluffing" the fibers one day and leaving it "settled" another. When it rains on the surface it becomes faster early on in the race and is a bit more consistent with dirt fractions. Having said all this it is the very inconsistency in the track that has to be a major cause for the LARGE increase in win mutuals.

Bottom line is I wish this track ran every day of the year with the field and competition levels that currently exist.
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Turfway Park - Financial nightmare for me. I have NOT found the key or keys needed for ME to win there and had a fairly significant loss for the concluded meet. I'm talking in the thousands rather than the hundreds here. That's keeping it real.

Until I can understand how to win here this track is OFF my betting menu.

Flaws of MINE- Over emphasizing the sustained runners here. Lost far too many races to early types that kept on going and won. Have to change either
a) approach
b) spot play setup
to have any chance to profit. Working on some things NOW in advance of the next meet. Very difficult uphill battle for me. Bottom line is cash stays in pocket til further notice at this joint.
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Hollywood (Cushion track) - VERY inconsistent results from last meet has carried over to this meet. Track looks to be slightly speed favoring and that's ok.

Pros - doing very good on maiden and the cheaper classes of races. I have switched my spot plays around to focus mainly on these race types. The early "fighting" type horses especially maidens pay off consistently sometimes at rather unreal prices.

Cons - Very poor results betting the higher class alw,clm and stakes races. Some races I am so confident in the bet only to see the total opposite scenario play out and my tickets become "bookmarks" as Pizzola says. Pisses me the heck off man. I honestly don't know why but the records are so clearly defined it is certain.

Bottom line is the surface is playable here for me but great attention to the class of race being worked HAS to be considered for me to have a chance to win.
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Woodbine - No opinion because I am not nor have not worked races there in any manner that can be called consistent. PASS
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take care
Richie

[46zilzal]

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Woodbine - No opinion because I am not nor have not worked races there in any manner that can be called consistent. PASS
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A bunch of us has said repeatedly that Woodbine has not changed that much: still a speed demon's paradise..

They are going to resurface this month so when they do I will post it......IT IS NOTHING like the others.

[DirtTrack]

I think my username states my preference ;)

Have not had much fun estimating performances of horses coming off Poly races back to dirt - ones I have played have not done very well (not saying that is a trend just the ones I have played)

Pretty much a traditional type of guy that thinks horses should run on dirt and if not dirt then grass.
Of course I also think they should ditch the DH and make pitchers bat
As well as player get in the end zone before they call it a TD
IMHO that is...

As far as the surface being safer for horses due to the softness it seems that it would be more dangerous when they go back to dirt but I have no worthy knowledge in this field at all :blush:

Dirt Tracks already vary enough in speed and pace to make handicapping interesting - East-West-North and South all run their own styles so from the handicapping angle I see no need to make it tougher than it already is :bang:

Seems the more they baby these animals the more they get hurt :rolleyes:

[Kelso]

For me the most important factor is can I PROFIT monetarily on the surface.
So far the answer has varied:


Richie,
I know from other threads that you are very enthusiastic about "The Hat's" system of play. Do you find that system to be much more or less effective on the rubber, in general, and at any tracks in particular?

Thank you.

[thelyingthief]

do you know when that re-surfacing is scheduled? and will it put the main track out of commission for any length of time?

tlt

[shanta]

Richie,
I know from other threads that you are very enthusiastic about "The Hat's" system of play. Do you find that system to be much more or less effective on the rubber, in general, and at any tracks in particular?
Thank you.

Kelso

Jim's method of matching horses relies a lot on FIRST call analysis of running styles,establishing a projected pace,deciding whether a race runs early (wire to wire) or other than early(all other races).

Keenelands poly throws this into chaos especially when looking at Kee races from the pp's. I lost my shirt the initial 2 weeks of the FIRST poly meet applying MY interpretation of the matchup to the races.

Then I spent about 2 hours on the phone with Jim and he showed me a way of looking at the result charts to find winning positional move patterns that were actually happening when the race ran. He told me to narrow the fields down like I was doing BUT this time only BET when the final contender (s) shows the same pattern somewhere in his pp's.

Kelso let me show a little something here I have been shown by Jim that is working well at Kee in races where I am looking for an off the pace type as a winner.
I am going to show a series of numbers. These are POSITIONS from a horse's pp's at the 1c-2c-sc-fin. We will IGNORE beaten lenghts.

horse a - 4-3-2-1
horse b - 4-4-1-1

Assumed: BOTH horses are FAST.

Using pp's BEFORE the race runs at KEENELAND horse B gets the win much more often than horse a.

While most folks define energy usage and units of energy expended based on beaten lenghts the "Hat" applies positional gains and losses along with pace of race. So horse b in the above example expended MORE units of energy passing horses QUICKLY from 2c-sc and on the Kee surface is given the edge when matched up against horse a.

If you have result charts for the concluded meet a look at them will show the WINNING off the pace or "other than early" positional patterns matching horse b (quick multi positional gains between calls) MUCH more often thatn they will look like horse a. key is being able to identify enough of them before the race runs to make a buck.

Sorry if I drifted from your question a bit but felt this might show a bit of the tools available that the Hat teaches. It's really NOT a system Kelso.

Richie :)

[classhandicapper]

I don't like it because I don't have what I would term a "speculative" game. I like to feel like I totally understand the abilities of the horses and their current form. The fewer unknowns the better. Any race in which several horses are switching surfaces can confuse some of the form cycle issues in addition to the obvious problem of debuts on the surface. There may be high level stats that can help with some of these things, but as I said, I like to understand things on a very specific level because that's the way I win. I don't usually have nearly as much success when I am taking a lot of educated guesses in a race. In the end, Poly is causing me to pass even more races than I used to.

[bobphilo]

Kelso

Jim's method of matching horses relies a lot on FIRST call analysis of running styles,establishing a projected pace,deciding whether a race runs early (wire to wire) or other than early(all other races).

Keenelands poly throws this into chaos especially when looking at Kee races from the pp's. I lost my shirt the initial 2 weeks of the FIRST poly meet applying MY interpretation of the matchup to the races.

Then I spent about 2 hours on the phone with Jim and he showed me a way of looking at the result charts to find winning positional move patterns that were actually happening when the race ran. He told me to narrow the fields down like I was doing BUT this time only BET when the final contender (s) shows the same pattern somewhere in his pp's.

Kelso let me show a little something here I have been shown by Jim that is working well at Kee in races where I am looking for an off the pace type as a winner.
I am going to show a series of numbers. These are POSITIONS from a horse's pp's at the 1c-2c-sc-fin. We will IGNORE beaten lenghts.

horse a - 4-3-2-1
horse b - 4-4-1-1

Assumed: BOTH horses are FAST.

Using pp's BEFORE the race runs at KEENELAND horse B gets the win much more often than horse a.

While most folks define energy usage and units of energy expended based on beaten lenghts the "Hat" applies positional gains and losses along with pace of race. So horse b in the above example expended MORE units of energy passing horses QUICKLY from 2c-sc and on the Kee surface is given the edge when matched up against horse a.

If you have result charts for the concluded meet a look at them will show the WINNING off the pace or "other than early" positional patterns matching horse b (quick multi positional gains between calls) MUCH more often thatn they will look like horse a. key is being able to identify enough of them before the race runs to make a buck.

Sorry if I drifted from your question a bit but felt this might show a bit of the tools available that the Hat teaches. It's really NOT a system Kelso.

Richie :)

I hope I'm not also drifting from the original question, and this should probably be the topic for a new thread, but this is essentially the reason I do a pace analysis of a horse's performance. I'm too tech challenged to break this off to a new thread, so perhaps our esteemed moderator could help.
If I find that a horse has distributed its energy unevenly, and therefore inefficiently, I can upgrade the performance or consider it a valid excuse to throw-out an apparently poor performance. I use variations in splits rather than positional change, but the principle is the same.
I suspect that this is more apparent on poly because is that it is based on the principles of kinetic energy from physics and is less influenced or poluted by confounding variables such as bias, which are more likely to occur on a dirt surface.

Bob