Betting on Superfectas in the KD

[wallstplyr]

Well, a friend and I are seriously considering betting $2,000 on strictly $1 superfectas on the KD boxing up a whole bunch of numbers (approx. 83 boxes on this bankroll). We would do our top 10 selections and mix them up along with series of boxes with some far fetched selections since anything can happen in the Derby.

Are we crazy to do so? We normally bet anywhere between $200-$700 on the KD, but this year we want to swing for the fences by focusing only on the superfectas with a $2k bankroll.

Thanks for your thoughts!:jump:

[uncbossfan]

If that was me I would go

6 x 8 x 9 x 10 = $2,058

[boomman]

Well, a friend and I are seriously considering betting $2,000 on strictly $1 superfectas on the KD boxing up a whole bunch of numbers (approx. 83 boxes on this bankroll). We would do our top 10 selections and mix them up along with series of boxes with some far fetched selections since anything can happen in the Derby.

Are we crazy to do so? We normally bet anywhere between $200-$700 on the KD, but this year we want to swing for the fences by focusing only on the superfectas with a $2k bankroll.

Thanks for your thoughts!:jump:

I agree with the poster who suggested the part wheel approach, as in this case that gives you the "best bang for your buck". Of course, in their infinite wisdom, Churchill announced that dime supers will be available AFTER the Derby, which is their vain attempt to put more $ in the superfecta pools by hanging on to the $1 minimum! WRONG Steve Sexton!! Let me say it again for you guys, but more slowly this time: T-h-e l-o-w-e-r t-h-e d-e-n-o-m-i-n-a-t-i-o-n, t-h-e- m-o-r-e- t-h-a-t- i-s w-a-g-e-r-e-d!! And if they don't believe me, ask 'em to explain what happened when Santa Anita went from the dinosaur $5 exacta miminum down to the $1 minimum several years ago! DUH! LOL:D

Boomer

[Ron]

There's 3 scenarios.


You don't hit.
You hit and it doesn't even pay $2000.
You hit and it pays big.

[DirtTrack]

Churchill announced that dime supers will be available AFTER the Derby, which is their vain attempt to put more $ in the superfecta pools by hanging on to the $1 minimum! WRONG Steve Sexton!! Let me say it again for you guys, but more slowly this time: T-h-e l-o-w-e-r t-h-e d-e-n-o-m-i-n-a-t-i-o-n, t-h-e- m-o-r-e- t-h-a-t- i-s w-a-g-e-r-e-d!! And if they don't believe me, ask 'em to explain what happened when Santa Anita went from the dinosaur $5 exacta miminum down to the $1 minimum several years ago! DUH! LOL:D
Boomer

Boomer nailed this one :eek:

Betting from the poor mans angle for years and betting at smaller tracks I can fully attest to this theory:
Normally under the $1 min a better would bet 2 over 2 for a $4 bet or 1 over 3 for a $6 bet
Under the dime min same better is likely to bet 1 over 5 for $12 - better value for the buck

[wallstplyr]

If that was me I would go

6 x 8 x 9 x 10 = $2,058


too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again! :cool:

[chickenhead]

you are talking about playing "quick picks" essentially. Lottery tickets. Which is fine, but not to be confused with handicapping and wagering for a long term profit.

Good luck

[Ron]

too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again! :cool:

I think the most experienced players can pick the winner to be one of 6 horses.

[uncbossfan]

too much of a risk to do that... there are like 10 (or even more) horses who are very capable of getting first. can't limit such a deep talent pool of horses to only 6 to get the win...

what do most experienced bettors do on big races like this? like what's the average bankroll, etc.

thanks again! :cool:

Interesting - I guess that just goes to show how many differing opinions there are in the handicapping game...I thought I was going to get bashed for buying 30% of the field on top.

[JPinMaryland]

errh: 6 x 8 x 9 x 10= $4320 doesnt it?

[uncbossfan]

errh: 6 x 8 x 9 x 10= $4320 doesnt it?

It does but if you use the same horses all the way through, you calculate it
6 x 7 x 7 x 7 = $2,058

[how cliche]

Exotics Calculator: http://www.horseracinggold.com/ewc.exe (http://www.horseracinggold.com/ewc.exe)

[gIracing]

I have 1 superfecta in my head that I am going to play, because it has been in my head for the last 2 weeks, it's like the race just unfolds in my head.

Other than that I am playing the race just like i would play any other race.

[Edward DeVere]

There's 3 scenarios.


You don't hit.
You hit and it doesn't even pay $2000.
You hit and it pays big.

And as Woody Hayes would say: "Two of 'em are bad."

[Edward DeVere]

Two thoughts immediately spring to mind:

1.) I can't see putting $2000 into the superfecta trying to hit it once.
2.) You have to hate the chances of the two favorites - Curlin and Street Sense - in order to put $2000 into the super.

[racefinder2]

some guts in risking that much money.

That is really a wide spread in combinations, I would need a stronger opinion
before betting that many combinations. These 10c limits that seem to be
getting popular, some people believe it lessens their chances of hitting the whole thing, or it costs too much, and are complaining about it. Whatever.
The powers that be seem to be fickle with their betting menu, it could change again as time passes.

As far as an average bankroll to hit a superfecta, it has to be huge relative to the number of bets you make, picking 4 horses in order is a big longshot.
There are others that may be able to work out the exact mathematics for you, it is beyond the scope of my knowledge. If you want to just take one shot at it for the Derby, dont be surprised if you miss !

Its difficult to single out a winner without a clear cut opinion, perhaps if you pick just one horse thats overlaid in odds and use it in all 4 spots with a handful of other strong contenders, you could pull off a win. Good luck.

[MNslappy]

a while back someone here went through the last 20 years or so of KD exacta payouts and found that if you had bet an all/all exacta on the derby every year in the time period they looked at, you'd be ahead like 300% or some crazy number like that. Of course, a lot of it was the $9000 2005 exacta. maybe that would be a better way to spend $2000, what is a $2 all/all exacta, about 700 bucks? a Sam P. - Circular Quay exacta would probably pay nicely.

[gIracing]

i take back what i said earlier.... although I see the race coming out a certain way, that way is certain not to pay the money that could be made if it played out another way. So here I go

Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun/Any Given Saturday
Curlin
Tiago

[plainolebill]

In a 20 horse Field even if two lukewarm favorites run first and second, the super can be huge:.

Smarty Jones/Lion Hearted/ Imperialism/Limehouse: $41,380.20

[wallstplyr]

Two thoughts immediately spring to mind:

1.) I can't see putting $2000 into the superfecta trying to hit it once.
2.) You have to hate the chances of the two favorites - Curlin and Street Sense - in order to put $2000 into the super.

true i'm worried about that... i'll let you guys know what happens! i'm leaving for louisville today!

[Robert Fischer]

For $2000 you can make several bets using a key horse in each slot of the super. The better your handicapping the more picky you can be in slots 1 and 2. If you pick two horses that both finish in the top 4 you can hit it a couple of times.