JPinMaryland
04-28-2007, 04:31 PM
Brought to you by the staff here at PA. Every year it seems there's that one little tid bit of information that went missing that leads to a loss in the superfecta or a bad beat. So in an effort not to overlook anything, the staff and I have parsed through the Fatman musings on the derby preps and presents a collection of Fatman utterances, diatribes, observations, etc. in an effort to make you a better informed handicapper this week:
[on the Gotham] I agree that SD did not run a terrible race. However, I don't want the winner back against good horses as he got the perfect trip in terms of position, and move. The ride was a flat-out masterpiece: he drafts, he waits while the others run, and then bullies his way out when he can wait no more. All he has to do is cruise to the wire.
On the other hand, Wafi City had tough luck at the break, was widest 1st turn and MOVED TOO soon. As the fairness gods would have it, he nonetheless held second. And, what burns my lazy ass all the more, is that with a little bit of effort (like, watching his previous races), I could've used him for 2nd. He gets an 81 where Wollaston Bay gets a 95. Watch that race and see why these figures are COMICAL..
SD got a worse trip than the winner (2 on the 1st turn, 3 on the 2nd) BUT both got MUCH BETTER trips than Wafi City. In fact, only the fact that Wafi City quit badly the very last part AND SD switched back to lefty, which allowed him to (relatively) surge a bit late, made his race appear as competitive as it was. I watch these races, and I read what the figure makers conclude. If Wafi City doesn't break significantly OUTWARDLY and his jock is just a bit more patient, he has a very real chance to win the Gotham. (I wonder, honestly, if this is something that can be comprehended by jockeys, owners, trainers, and figure makers. There's such a fine line between winning a losing, as it is.) He certainly buries SD. Where do figures capture this? If there's a subjective component to figure making, as the argument has been made, WHERE IS IT? After the fact is circular...
***
[on the KY Cup juv run last year]
Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:
Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner
1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2....fatman
***
[On the LA derby]
I'm not a big fan of this horse [circular quay], and agree that the race had to fall apart--- which makes the 2nd place horse's performance all the more impressive.
Yet, I certainly thought that Zanjero and certainly Birdbirdistheword would get a jump on CQ. In other words, they'd move before CQ did. Zanjero, up to the race, had been moving too soon, IMO, and I was interested in seeing what would happen if they timed his move a bit better, and Bird...was moving with Street Sense (and thus, ahead of CQ) in the Keeneland stake.As it shaped up, CQ did all the middle running and the other 2 could only try to pick up the pieces late ---it was all they could do to get by Liquidity, and never threatened the top 2.And this is troubling, because CQ usually lets all the others run first and then simply picks up the pieces. This was an improved effort, IMO.
I'm intrigued by this horse. Now, it might be the case that he can't handle a distance or that he's just not good enough (can't access the Risen Star replay so I'm going by the memory of a single viewing) but he does have an explosive move and I wonder what would happen if the connections actually attempted to time it better. [on Zanjero]
****
[on the sanfelipe]
5 horse field, and he needs to be in the 4 path? Why? (no telling where he was on the backside, cause SOuthern Cali tracks need to save money by only 'headoning' a single turn (the first in routes) and the stretch) He loses by 2 and he's in at least the 4 all the way around the track. Yeah, the winner was real tough today.
Good thing the MIG was in the race and, for some reason, decided that he absolutely had to be OUTSIDE of Gomez. Now, that's heady riding. Way to go, boys..
***
[On the REBEL stakes]
If we threw out TEUFELSBERG, since he got a very fortuitous setup last time and certainly wasn't going to get it again and was simply not good enough to win otherwise and we assumed that the only way Officer Rocket could win is if the field completely collapsed (although, he certainly got a funky ride yesterday)
and considered that Curlin was VERY WIDE throughout and the jock spent more time trying to keep him in in the stretch rather than riding him, while he DREW on the field in his maiden effort --the chart on this race is telling -ABSOLUTELY NOTHING GAINED AT ANY CALL....we're left to laugh at the contention of the TG people that he would bounce..
[on the Gotham] I agree that SD did not run a terrible race. However, I don't want the winner back against good horses as he got the perfect trip in terms of position, and move. The ride was a flat-out masterpiece: he drafts, he waits while the others run, and then bullies his way out when he can wait no more. All he has to do is cruise to the wire.
On the other hand, Wafi City had tough luck at the break, was widest 1st turn and MOVED TOO soon. As the fairness gods would have it, he nonetheless held second. And, what burns my lazy ass all the more, is that with a little bit of effort (like, watching his previous races), I could've used him for 2nd. He gets an 81 where Wollaston Bay gets a 95. Watch that race and see why these figures are COMICAL..
SD got a worse trip than the winner (2 on the 1st turn, 3 on the 2nd) BUT both got MUCH BETTER trips than Wafi City. In fact, only the fact that Wafi City quit badly the very last part AND SD switched back to lefty, which allowed him to (relatively) surge a bit late, made his race appear as competitive as it was. I watch these races, and I read what the figure makers conclude. If Wafi City doesn't break significantly OUTWARDLY and his jock is just a bit more patient, he has a very real chance to win the Gotham. (I wonder, honestly, if this is something that can be comprehended by jockeys, owners, trainers, and figure makers. There's such a fine line between winning a losing, as it is.) He certainly buries SD. Where do figures capture this? If there's a subjective component to figure making, as the argument has been made, WHERE IS IT? After the fact is circular...
***
[on the KY Cup juv run last year]
Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:
Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner
1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2....fatman
***
[On the LA derby]
I'm not a big fan of this horse [circular quay], and agree that the race had to fall apart--- which makes the 2nd place horse's performance all the more impressive.
Yet, I certainly thought that Zanjero and certainly Birdbirdistheword would get a jump on CQ. In other words, they'd move before CQ did. Zanjero, up to the race, had been moving too soon, IMO, and I was interested in seeing what would happen if they timed his move a bit better, and Bird...was moving with Street Sense (and thus, ahead of CQ) in the Keeneland stake.As it shaped up, CQ did all the middle running and the other 2 could only try to pick up the pieces late ---it was all they could do to get by Liquidity, and never threatened the top 2.And this is troubling, because CQ usually lets all the others run first and then simply picks up the pieces. This was an improved effort, IMO.
I'm intrigued by this horse. Now, it might be the case that he can't handle a distance or that he's just not good enough (can't access the Risen Star replay so I'm going by the memory of a single viewing) but he does have an explosive move and I wonder what would happen if the connections actually attempted to time it better. [on Zanjero]
****
[on the sanfelipe]
5 horse field, and he needs to be in the 4 path? Why? (no telling where he was on the backside, cause SOuthern Cali tracks need to save money by only 'headoning' a single turn (the first in routes) and the stretch) He loses by 2 and he's in at least the 4 all the way around the track. Yeah, the winner was real tough today.
Good thing the MIG was in the race and, for some reason, decided that he absolutely had to be OUTSIDE of Gomez. Now, that's heady riding. Way to go, boys..
***
[On the REBEL stakes]
If we threw out TEUFELSBERG, since he got a very fortuitous setup last time and certainly wasn't going to get it again and was simply not good enough to win otherwise and we assumed that the only way Officer Rocket could win is if the field completely collapsed (although, he certainly got a funky ride yesterday)
and considered that Curlin was VERY WIDE throughout and the jock spent more time trying to keep him in in the stretch rather than riding him, while he DREW on the field in his maiden effort --the chart on this race is telling -ABSOLUTELY NOTHING GAINED AT ANY CALL....we're left to laugh at the contention of the TG people that he would bounce..