The Official 2007 KY Derby Hype Thread - Let it Begin!

[michiken]

One week and counting!

We begin the frenzy of over-hype, over-touted, over-analyzed, most quoted, most excuses, most red boarded races of the the year.

Why can't this happen more often?

I CAN'T WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BillW]

This is the weakest crop of 3 year olds I've ever seen. :lol:

[michiken]

Bill,

That remark is so cliche I will add some others, your job is to guess who I am quoting:

"I thought one of my closer's would get there but they obviously didn't fire"

"He just didn't get hold of the track".

[BillW]

I think it's against the law to talk about the triple crown without making that observation - just thought I'd get it out of the way early :p .

BTW this thread is probably better off in the Triple Crown Trail forum. ... done

[michiken]

Lets not forget so soon.

Perhaps we will know for sure if Street Sense's victory last fall in the breeder's cup was aided by the 'inside bias'....

[JPinMaryland]

I still havent seen the derby winner. :rolleyes:

[gIracing]

I don't think it's weak. It's an average class.

I wanna know, what was the BEST class.

I think that Smarty Jones class was pretty darn good.

[BillW]

I don't think it's weak. It's an average class.

I wanna know, what was the BEST class.

I think that Smarty Jones class was pretty darn good.

I was just being facetious. It seems that every year someone is saying that. I don't see what it matters, the triple crown is the triple crown. There is no criteria for canceling it due to a weakness in the crop. :D

[OTM Al]

They said the same thing about the class in 1973. Funny thing is I recognize most of these names....

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1973.html

[Tom]

I think last year's crop was far more talented than this year's, and most of them turned out to forgettable dogs.

Absolutley no hype here over anythng about to hapopen in the 3yo division.
Looks to me to be a lottery of also rans.

[chickenhead]

nobody has posted the throwout rules yet? What is the world coming too?

[Cratos]

One week and counting!

We begin the frenzy of over-hype, over-touted, over-analyzed, most quoted, most excuses, most red boarded races of the the year.

Why can't this happen more often?

I CAN'T WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just looking at the winners of the 53 KY prep races to date you will see a median distance of 1-1/16 miles and a median final time of 1:43.20. If the winner would run the last 3 furlongs of the Derby in 38.2 after having run the first 8 ½ furlongs in a time at least equaled to the median time, its final time would be 2:01.40 which is faster than the historical average KY Derby final Time.

This is a very good and deep crop of contenders with at least 6 horses vying at this time to be the closing odds favorite.

[Niko]

It does seem to be a deeper and more consistent field than I've seen in the past. The odd thing is (I use Bris) there isn't any 107-110 speed figs coming into this year. So in a lot of ways it looks to be one of the more contencious (sp?) fields I've seen, but not very fast coming into the Derby.

Then again there weren't any off tracks or freakish Keeneland dirt preps. And on that note I'd rather see a 4 horse photo than a horse running some riduculous number all by himself.

[dylbert]

This is the weakest crop of 3 year olds I've ever seen. :lol:Don't confuse weak with deep for this year's crop of 3YOs. Coast-to-coast racing, twenty-first century training methods that challenge traditional ones, and new synthetic surfaces have created more "noise" as one analyzes these colts.

As others have mentioned on PA board, Louisville Courier-Journal has excellent tool for comparing (and separating) these competitors. Using some basic criteria -- dual qualifier, won as 3-year-old, and have three or more races as 3-year-old yields threes horses: Any Given Saturday, Nobiz Like Showbiz, and Scat Daddy.

It is fun running different scenarios and seeing what it yields. Using time criteria as 3-year-olds in 1-1/8 mile races, the Blanket Finish Five (aka top five horses in Blue Grass Stakes) plus Cowtown Cat and Curlin. Very entertaining and enlightening to mix and match criteria and see who emerges.

In less than seven day now, we'll know winner and conjecture will move toward Preakness and Belmont.

Today I like -- Curlin ("Le Freak"), Nobiz Like Showbiz ("Cheap Sunglasses"), Scat Daddy ("R-E-S-P-E-C-T"), Circular Quay ("Little Engine that Could"), and Stormello ("The Streak"). Tomorrow, I may have different cast of characters.

Happy Handicapping!!!