mamaluke
04-26-2007, 07:16 PM
Two Races from last Sat - (Robespierre) 04-26-07 - 11:33 AM [Msgid=1198799]
There's been some interest in what the SHEETS looked like for a couple of races run last Saturday that players thought had big overlays. I think that the winner of the Kee race and the second place horse in the GP race were both excellent plays, but for very different reasons. Lemon Custard at Kee had a very solid overall pattern and had made a strong match of his 2yo top in his next to last effort. The small bounce on short rest off the 13 was very strong for me, particularly with the very nice five weeks rest into this race from the 16-. His numbers weren't really outstanding in the race as there are several that had some shot at least to run in the 11-13 range, but his pattern, timing, condition and odds (~20-1) made a powerful combination.
Stower at GP was just an odds vs numbers play, but it's rare to get one as good as this. On recent numbers Stower was the third fastest going in and went off at 60-1. There was nothing positive about his pattern, but he had nice timing into the race and another fair effort from him in the ~15 range certainly made him a strong contender. The winner of the race would have been a little harder for me (and he didn't run all that well) but he had a recent fair grass effort and some back grass numbers, although there was no reason to think he was headed in that direction. At his odds (~40-1) I think he was usable, but only very lightly for me. Stower came in second even though he didn't run as well as his last two efforts which in my experience is how we often cash these numbers vs odds plays, where the power of the numbers overcomes a questionable pattern. I think Stower would have been an overlay at 20-1 which makes his actual odds in the race off the charts, but at 10-1 I wouldn't have been interested. While his numbers were better than average in the ten horse field, my lack of confidence in his overall backward moving pattern (11" top, 13" three years ago, 14+ last year, 15- this year) would make me want more in odds to support what was to me something of a random odds play.
There's been some interest in what the SHEETS looked like for a couple of races run last Saturday that players thought had big overlays. I think that the winner of the Kee race and the second place horse in the GP race were both excellent plays, but for very different reasons. Lemon Custard at Kee had a very solid overall pattern and had made a strong match of his 2yo top in his next to last effort. The small bounce on short rest off the 13 was very strong for me, particularly with the very nice five weeks rest into this race from the 16-. His numbers weren't really outstanding in the race as there are several that had some shot at least to run in the 11-13 range, but his pattern, timing, condition and odds (~20-1) made a powerful combination.
Stower at GP was just an odds vs numbers play, but it's rare to get one as good as this. On recent numbers Stower was the third fastest going in and went off at 60-1. There was nothing positive about his pattern, but he had nice timing into the race and another fair effort from him in the ~15 range certainly made him a strong contender. The winner of the race would have been a little harder for me (and he didn't run all that well) but he had a recent fair grass effort and some back grass numbers, although there was no reason to think he was headed in that direction. At his odds (~40-1) I think he was usable, but only very lightly for me. Stower came in second even though he didn't run as well as his last two efforts which in my experience is how we often cash these numbers vs odds plays, where the power of the numbers overcomes a questionable pattern. I think Stower would have been an overlay at 20-1 which makes his actual odds in the race off the charts, but at 10-1 I wouldn't have been interested. While his numbers were better than average in the ten horse field, my lack of confidence in his overall backward moving pattern (11" top, 13" three years ago, 14+ last year, 15- this year) would make me want more in odds to support what was to me something of a random odds play.