Most Consistent Stat?

[SMOO]

If one was to just look at win % without regard to price, what single stat would you say was the most consistent in picking the winning horse in an average race? Would it be final odds?

[BIG RED]

odds-on faves?

[Greyfox]

Bobby Frankel - Turf - Southern California

(Unfortunately, he kills the prices.)

[skate]

the final time

[betovernetcapper]

There are 11 tracks going today that I have enough 2007 stats to venture an answer.

Best morning line
Aqu-GG-Haw-Kee-LA-LS-Pen

Money Box-earnings
RD

Morning Line and Money box (tied)
Tdn

Projected Cramer Rating
CT-EVD

These are broken down by track, but the most predictive factor in a given race, like 6f Aqu mdn clm 3Y statebred may be something other than best morning line.
:)

[Overlay]

Not counting winning percentages related to various odds categories or varieties of favorites, the single most powerful statistic that Mike Nunamaker found in Modern Impact Values in 1994 for his entire sample was the horse that had the highest average speed figure (either Beyer or BRIS) from those races out of its last three starts that had been run on today's surface (dirt or turf, regardless of condition), or from all three of the horse's most recent races if none of them had been run on today's surface. (This was obviously before Polytrack.) For horses that had raced less than three times, he used the average from the race or races of the one or two efforts in its past peformances that had been run on today's surface, or, again, if the horse had not raced on today's surface, all the horse's available one or two races. The horse with the highest average figure calculated in this manner had a winning percentage of 27.14%.

The subgroup in the study that had the greatest number of individual factors with high winning percentages was route races for two-year-olds, with the following generic factors (i.e., those not associated with a specific data provider, such as BRIS) having the highest percentages:

Best Speed in Last 30 Days (35.19)
Average Earnings-per-Start (calculated as Quirin did it)(34.72)
Best Last Race Speed (34.26)
Best Speed of Last Three Races (33.80)
Total Earnings (33.80)

[Overlay]

The subgroup in the study that had the greatest number of individual factors with high winning percentages was route races for two-year-olds

As a clarification, those races were run on dirt. (At the time of his study, Quirin couldn't find the minimum number of route races on turf for two-year-olds that he required (100) in order to include that category in his study.)

[Overlay]

As a clarification, those races were run on dirt. (At the time of his study, Quirin couldn't find the minimum number of route races on turf for two-year-olds that he required (100) in order to include that category in his study.)

Of course, I meant Nunamaker rather than Quirin.

[SMOO]

There are 11 tracks going today that I have enough 2007 stats to venture an answer.

Best morning line
Aqu-GG-Haw-Kee-LA-LS-Pen

Money Box-earnings
RD

Morning Line and Money box (tied)
Tdn

Projected Cramer Rating
CT-EVD

These are broken down by track, but the most predictive factor in a given race, like 6f Aqu mdn clm 3Y statebred may be something other than best morning line.
:)
Thank You.

When you say "money box" do you mean average earnings for this year or total lifetime?

[betovernetcapper]

It's a power rating based on a horses # of starts-wins-places-shows and earnings. I don't know if it's this years earnings or lifetime or sometimes one and sometimes another. I've never thought about it. I'll find out and get back to you.