Angles

[Secretariat]

Would like to see a few angles posted by readers of forum to run some large tests on to check success rate via my database.

Anybody have something they feel is exceptional. If you do I'll post the results on this thread after running though an extensive database providing the angle is not too complex (4 or 5 rule max).

Thanks

[Chico]

Here's one as proposed by Geer in American Turf Monthly: Basic Proposition: Bet a horse than ran 4th or 5 two races ago that finished 5th or better in it's last race that is going off today at odds of 5-1 or HIGHER.
Rule 1. Last race must be at same track as today and previous race could have been at ANY track (including minor tracks.)
Rule 2. Last race must have been within 30 days and previous race must have been within 80 days.
Rule 3. If two horses qualify bet the one with higher odds.
Rule 4. If 2 horses qualify bot at 9-1 or higher, bet both.
Note: All race types qualify - from Maiden to Graded, turf or dirt.
Regards,
Chico

[Tom]

1. Horse is one of top three speed figures of last race.
2. Last race, finished out of money, but in the front half of the field.
3. Last race within 30 days.
4. Same distance catagory and surface as last race.

[JustMissed]

For routes only:

1. Calculate average pace fig as follows: Mean of highest of E1+E2+E3 for each of the most recent 3 routes.

2. If highest Avg. Pace fig exceeds second highest fig by four or more, bet to win.

JustMissed
:)

[John]

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS

wins at odds lower than morning line odds

[Boris]

2nd Race to the Rail:

1 - In debut, the horse must have started from a post position in the outside half of the field.

2 - Must have shown early speed in debut to the first call.

3 - Beaten less than 5L in that race.

4 - Starts from the rail in second race. (PP=1)

[andicap]

Originally posted by JustMissed
For routes only:

1. Calculate average pace fig as follows: Mean of highest of E1+E2+E3 for each of the most recent 3 routes.

2. If highest Avg. Pace fig exceeds second highest fig by four or more, bet to win.

JustMissed
:)

Can you give an example of this angle?

[JustMissed]

Aqueduct-Sat 11/23/02-Race 8, G3 1 3/8 moved off the turf.

Evening Attire #14, highest E1 last three races was 71, highest E2 was 89, and highest E3 was 105. Average pace calculated as follows: 71+89+105=265 divided by 3 = 89.

Fisher Pond #16. E1-88, E2-97 & E3-90. 88+97+90=275 divided by 3=92.

10 of the 16 horses had scratched. Evening Attire has always run on the dirt and was the obvious class of the class. I made a Joe Takach 'car title" bet on Evening Attire to win and played a straight exacta with Fisher Pond in the place spot.

Evening Attire won by 8 lengths over the second place Fisher Pond. I collected a $3.10 mutuel and a $7.40 exacta.

The average pace seems to work better in the longer routes and has been a pretty good tie breaker if I can't decide on the final two or three contenders. I have not played enough long routes to vouch for this but at worst it gives me a good indication if the horse can carry the distance.

I use paper pp's so I just draw a red circle around the highest of the most recent 3 routes and then calculate the average. I use TSN and their E3 is actually called LP. I don't have any capping software but I believe some packages calculate this anyway.

Hope this made sense.

JustMissed
:)

[hurrikane]

JM...I'm confused (that's something new..NOT.)


1. Calculate average pace fig as follows: Mean of highest of E1+E2+E3 for each of the most recent 3 routes.

So Eve Attire is an 89 and Fisher is a 92?


2. If highest Avg. Pace fig exceeds second highest fig by four or more, bet to win.


Fisher exceeds Eve Attire by 3. this would indicate no bet but you bet Eve Attire. Am I missing something here?

[JustMissed]

Secretartiat wanted some angles to test and I would like to know how many times a 4 point or greater avg. pace speed wins. Period.

Andicap wanted an example of this angle and I showed him how I calculated the avg. pace and how Fisher Pond's spread was only three and not 4 and he came in second.

What exactly is it that you do not understand?

JustMissed
:rolleyes:

[hurrikane]

andi asked

Can you give an example of this angle?


sorry,
though you were giving an example of the angle you described.
That was not the case and obviously the cause of my confusion.

[Secretariat]

Boris,

"2nd Race to the Rail:

1 - In debut, the horse must have started from a post position in the outside half of the field.

2 - Must have shown early speed in debut to the first call.

3 - Beaten less than 5L in that race.

4 - Starts from the rail in second race. (PP=1)"

***Boris, Your angle above is intriguing, and appears to be based on good handicapping logic, but it reminds me of a few of Mark Cramer’ angles I’ve tested. Simply too few plays. I ran your angle through all of AQU this year. There were two plays out of all the year’s races, and both horses lost. On 04/20/02 Dignified Diva fit your rules, but was coming off a 202 day layoff. He finished second and paid 3.90 to place. The other play was 10/24/02 Swept in Three who ran out. I programmed early speed to be within one length of the lead at the first call. I also ran the angle through all of PHA park races this year, and it had only one play on 07/16/02 Absent Lover who ran out. Without opening up the rules signfiicantly it appears difficult to get a meaningful sample, but three losses and no wins out of two track's entire seasons shows the angle at best to be suspect at this point.

[Boris]

It is a "nichey" angle, and you're right about it not showing up frequently. You can expand it to within 3L of the 1st or 2nd call. I posted one that qualified in the selections forum last week that hit at ARL, but I don't think you will find many over the course of the year across all tracks. Larry ran it across his database a while back and it showed a positive ROI across a small number of occurances at all tracks. It's an angle that has been good to me, and since you were looking for angles, I threw it out there. In general, you can look at the improvement(?) over a broader sample if you want to compare average beaten lengths in "outside" debut vs. "rail" second race for maidens as an exotics angle.

Thanks for the effort.

Good Luck

[andicap]

I agree about Cramer's angles. I stopped subscribing to his C&O reports because I could never reproduce his success with the angles. (tho I do enjoy his "kinky" books)

[BlueChip@DRF]

I have one.

Maiden Special Weights: playable odds: 8/1+
- 2nd time starter coming off a layoff with a rider change
and/or an equipment/surface/distance change. Does
not matter what the horse did in its first race, only that
it did not win.

[BlueChip@DRF]

And here's something a few of you should get a kick out of...

Track: Mountaineer
Race Type: Any/All

The Play: Posts 1,2,3,4, and 10

-- One or two of the five designated positions must be at 7/1 or more. The play is an equal amount for Win/Place, bet both horses where applicable.
-- If three or more of the five designated posts are at 7/1+, then pass.
-- Extra: If #9 is at 21/1+, a small Win/Place bet may be called for. For some reason, this post seems to be the 'bomb slot'.

[hurrikane]

whoa Blue...that is some heavy duty backfitting there.

how about 2nd start..first lasix....

[JimG]

Originally posted by hurrikane
whoa Blue...that is some heavy duty backfitting there.

how about 2nd start..first lasix....

....gray horse...must have the word "boat" in the name....cloudy weather...Damon Leeds at Jockey...and he must get off at 0 minutes to post to be replaced by...Dana Whitney........

[BlueChip@DRF]

Hurrikane, I thought it was understood under 'equipment change'? Anyways, it looks like it needs tweaking, maybe adding a 3rd bet in there and dutching.

[dav4463]

Could you run a test of this angle?


Using the Beyer figures

Horse must have improved from next-to-last to last race by NO MORE THAN 10 points and last race Beyer MUST BE WITHIN 10 points of horse's own personal best Beyer in last 10 races.

Horse must have been in 4th position or better at 1st and 2nd call in at least one of his last three races

Horse must be moving UP IN CLASS off of a good race or win



Not sure, but I believe Valponi fit this angle as did quite a few others in my limited test. It may have potential.....

[BlueChip@DRF]

At Aqueduct using the horse's last 3 Beyers, it should have improved twice without winning of its last 3. And because it as not won in its last 3, the odds should reflect a nice payout. This usually works for the lower-level races (i.e Clm50000 and below and allowance races that do not have a stakes-placed horse)

[John]

Bluechip

Is that any two races of the last three or should the improvment follow each race with the Beyers

[hurrikane]

I was actually serious about the 2nd start first lasix question. :D

[dav4463]

Example for my angle

Previous Best Beyer in last 10 is a 72

Last 3 Beyers can be..... 66
61
59

or 63
56
69


It doesn't matter if the improvement was in all 3, just next-to-last to last and not more than 10 points and within 10 or previous best....going back no more than 10 races

[BlueChip@DRF]

rocajack,

Beyers should be improving like the following example:

62 <--- last race
57 <--- 2nd to last
45 <--- 3rd to last


As long as the horse did not win and no layoffs in between.
However, Aqueduct's inner track favors highest beyer last out.

[GR1@HTR]

Buffalochip,

Don't know if you read Andy Beyers Speed book, but it showed horses regressed after 3 improving figs. But the filter of not having won yet should improve the results....me thinks...

[BlueChip@DRF]

Okay GR1,

You got me on semantics. Should be TWO Beyer improvements without a win in the last three races.

[andicap]

OK,
if the pattern was
62
57
45
58

Wouldn't that qualify (assuming the horse didn't win)? There were two improvements (not three in a row) in the last three races.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Andicap,

Yes, that is exactly what I meant.
Sorry if english is bad.

[kenwoodall]

Finish position next race after throwing jockey.

[Fastracehorse]

I think the best angles are very general in scope.

That is, they are simple. Methods that have been learned from years of experience.

Some angles, if they are complicated, are really just describing one attribute of a more general angle. Such as the angle: If you average the last 3 Beyers of every horse's efforts, the highest # is the horse that will win. When really this may be just an obvious contender based on his last race only, his consisitency, the company he's been keeping, his love for the distance, etc..

One of the dangers of angles is that they blind a 'capper from more prosperous horses.

One advantage of these angles can be found by the 'capper who asks the question, " Why didn't this angle work here, but did here?"

Anyways, it is a complicated game but I still believe that the best angles are the most simple.

There is a pro in Nevada whose best angle is the shoes that horses wear. He loves GG and AQU because these tracks are often wet and they provide the best infromation on the shoes being worn. So, simple-----------shoes.

I believe him because when I used to play harness there was an innovation called the speed bike- took 1 sec. off of a horse's mile. This worked well many times as a simple angle, until these 'Cheetas' were banned.

I also have a very good angle that works with first-time starters-------------simple.

Pedigree handicappers will tell you that they know alot about pedigree, but this angle only works in extreme cases, such as progeny with superior off-track or turf influence. Other than that, pure pedigree handicappers are experts in geneology, not handicapping.

fffastt