April 25th Losers

[cantlose]

Hi All,

I do not suggest that any of you play my selections! I'm so bad at picking winners that I have to play three horses to win in every race just to get a few winners.

I'm going to show you how bad my handicapping is by posting my wagers just before post time. If I win any races I'll quote the winning post and highlight any winning tickets in bold red type.

Aqueduct Race 2

aqu race 2 $16 win # 5
aqu race 2 $10 win # 1
aqu race 2 $0 win # 4
aqu race 2 $30 exacta box 5-1-4

[cantlose]

Beulah Race 2

beu race 2 $16 win # 1
beu race 2 $10 win # 3
beu race 2 $6 win # 7
beu race 2 $30 exacta box 1-3-7

[cantlose]

Calder Race 3

Cdr race 3 $28 win # 3
Cdr race 3 $22 win # 10
Cdr race 3 $6 win # 5
Cdr race 3 $30 exacta box 3-10-5

[cantlose]

Beulah Race 2

beu race 2 $16 win # 1
beu race 2 $10 win # 3
beu race 2 $6 win # 7
beu race 2 $30 exacta box 1-3-7

Race 2 1M 70Y Dirt
Purse: $4100.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
3 Copy Bien Wilkin Ortiz 6.80 2.80 2.20
7 Powdered Water Yuri Yaranga 3.20 2.40
1 Devil's Rising Son Otto Thorwarth 2.80
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 3/7 16.20

[cantlose]

Calder Race 3

Cdr race 3 $28 win # 3
Cdr race 3 $22 win # 10
Cdr race 3 $6 win # 5
Cdr race 3 $30 exacta box 3-10-5

Race 3 6F Dirt
Purse: $9000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
10 Desultory Gary W. Bain 13.40 7.60 5.40
11 Southern Formality Elvis Trujillo 8.20 5.80
1 Margarita Kid David Boraco 6.00

[cantlose]

Calder Race 4

crc race 4 $38 win # 9
crc race 4 $26 win # 2
crc race 4 $6 win # 3
crc race 4 $30 exacta box 9-2-3

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 3

Kee race 3 $34 win # 4
Kee race 3 $10 win # 6
Kee race 3 $6 win # 1
Kee race 3 $30 exacta box 4-6-1

[danmurphy jr]

If a $30 exacta box costs $180, Houston, we have a problem.
If we lose the exacta boxes, this is a good system. I would either
bet more on the chalk or none at all. Of course, this is your Cantalope,
what is your experience? GL

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 3

Kee race 3 $34 win # 4
Kee race 3 $10 win # 6
Kee race 3 $6 win # 1
Kee race 3 $30 exacta box 4-6-1

Race 3 1 1/16M Dirt
Purse: $22000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
1 A Nice Splash DH Shaun Bridgmohan 5.20 4.60 3.80
5 Heroic Deed DH Miguel Mena 7.80 7.20 5.20
2 He's Awesome Javier Castellano 6.20

[cantlose]

Calder Race 5crc race 5 $36 win # 12
crc race 5 $10 win # 10
crc race 5 $0 win # 9
crc race 5 $30 exacta box 12-10-9

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 4

kee race 4 $36 win # 9
kee race 4 $10 win # 6
kee race 4 $6 win # 8
kee race 4 $30 exacta box 9-6-8

[cantlose]

Calder Race 5crc race 5 $36 win # 12
crc race 5 $10 win # 10
crc race 5 $0 win # 9
crc race 5 $30 exacta box 12-10-9

Race 5 5 1/2F Dirt
Purse: $10500.00 Fast Pt. Cloudy
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
10 Third Dimension Rosemary B. Homeister, Jr. 8.60 6.00 4.00
5 Wise Alert J Sanchez 13.40 6.80
7 Lost On Appeal Gary W. Bain 6.20

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 5

aqu race 5 $14 win # 2
aqu race 5 $10 win # 8
aqu race 5 $6 win # 7
aqu race 5 $30 exacta box 2-8-7

[cantlose]

Calder Race 6

crc race 6 $14 win # 9
crc race 6 $30 win # 1
crc race 6 $6 win # 8
crc race 6 $30 exacta box 9-1-8

[cantlose]

If a $30 exacta box costs $180, Houston, we have a problem.
If we lose the exacta boxes, this is a good system. I would either
bet more on the chalk or none at all. Of course, this is your Cantalope,
what is your experience? GL

$30 exacta box = six $5 tickets

[cantlose]

Beulah Race 6

beu race 6 $14 win # 6
beu race 6 $10 win # 4
beu race 6 $6 win # 5
beu race 6 $30 exacta box 6-4-5

[chickenhead]

$30 exacta box = six $5 tickets

I think you were in front of me in line one time....

[banacek]

I think you were in front of me in line one time....:lol::lol:

[cantlose]

Calder Race 7

crc race 7 $128 win # 4
crc race 7 $92 win # 13
crc race 7 $6 win # 7
crc race 7 $30 exacta box 4-13-7

[cantlose]

Beulah Race 6

beu race 6 $14 win # 6
beu race 6 $10 win # 4
beu race 6 $6 win # 5
beu race 6 $30 exacta box 6-4-5

Race 6 1M Dirt
Purse: $4100.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
6 Cahill Tour Otto Thorwarth 7.40 4.40 2.80
3 Rio Branco (GB) Azael De Leon 5.60 3.20
7 Red Brick Avenue Jorge E. Collazo, Sr. 8.20

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 6

kee race 6 $14 win # 1
kee race 6 $134 win # 7
kee race 6 $6 win # 11
kee race 6 $30 exacta box 1-7-11

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 7

aqu race 7 $14 win # 2
aqu race 7 $10 win # 4
aqu race 7 $6 win # 10
aqu race 7 $30 exacta box 2-4-10

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 6

kee race 6 $14 win # 1
kee race 6 $134 win # 7
kee race 6 $6 win # 11
kee race 6 $30 exacta box 1-7-11

Race 6 7F Dirt
Purse: $50000.00 Cloudy
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
11 Royal War Academy Robby Albarado 9.60 4.00 3.00
6 It's a Danzig Larry Melancon 3.60 3.00
4 Xela Shaun Bridgmohan 19.00

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 7

aqu race 7 $14 win # 2
aqu race 7 $10 win # 4
aqu race 7 $6 win # 10
aqu race 7 $30 exacta box 2-4-10

Race 7 1M Turf
Purse: $44000.00 Firm Rain
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
4 Pays to Dream Jose L. Espinoza 6.50 4.70 3.20
5 Academy Royale Eddie M. Martin, Jr. 8.10 4.80
7 Super Nationals Raul I. Rojas 9.40

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 8

aqu race 8 $234 win # 6
aqu race 8 $8 win # 9
aqu race 8 $4 win # 1
aqu race 8 $30 exacta box 6-9-1

[cantlose]

Calder Race 9

crc race 9 $12 win # 3
crc race 9 $8 win # 7
crc race 9 $4 win # 9
crc race 9 $30 exacta box 3-7-9

[Ron]

If you are really making these bets, you are one broke person.

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 8

aqu race 8 $234 win # 6
aqu race 8 $8 win # 9
aqu race 8 $4 win # 1
aqu race 8 $30 exacta box 6-9-1

Race 8 7F Dirt
Purse: $43000.00 Rain
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
9 Stunt Man Alan Garcia 7.80 4.20 3.60
1 Quick and Easy Victor Carrero 7.80 5.30
3 Full of Rage Jesus Ponce 8.10
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 9/1 65.50

[banacek]

Race 8 7F Dirt
Purse: $43000.00 Rain
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
9 Stunt Man Alan Garcia 7.80 4.20 3.60
1 Quick and Easy Victor Carrero 7.80 5.30
3 Full of Rage Jesus Ponce 8.10
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 9/1 65.50


Bet 276 collect 194.95

I don't get the theory. Most of the times you have the winner, you have lost money.

[danmurphy jr]

I love the concept. I would lose the exacta combos and avoid chalk type races with short fields.
Thanks alot for the contribution.

[cantlose]

Aqueduct Race 9

aqu race 9 $12 win # 2
aqu race 9 $240 win # 3
aqu race 9 $4 win # 7
aqu race 9 $30 exacta box 2-3-7

[cantlose]

Keenland Race 9

kee race 9 $180 win # 1
kee race 9 $88 win # 12
kee race 9 $4 win # 11
kee race 9 $30 exacta box 1-12-11

[cantlose]

Hollywood Race 3

hol race 3 $10 win # 1
hol race 3 $148 win # 4
hol race 3 $4 win # 8
hol race 3 $30 exacta box 1-4-8

[cantlose]

Hollywood Race 4

hol race 4 $228 win # 9
hol race 4 $278 win # 11
hol race 4 $0 win # 10
hol race 4 $30 exacta box 9-11-10

[cantlose]

Hollywood Race 5

hol race 5 $396 win # 6
hol race 5 $278 win # 8
hol race 5 $2 win # 2
hol race 5 $30 exacta box 6-8-2

[cantlose]

Hollywood Race 5

hol race 5 $396 win # 6
hol race 5 $278 win # 8
hol race 5 $2 win # 2
hol race 5 $30 exacta box 6-8-2

Race 5 1M Turf
Purse: $51000.00 Firm Sunny
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
2 Fleet Caroline Joseph Talamo 9.20 6.00 4.20
5 Miss Josiey Wales (GB) Clinton L. Potts 7.60 6.00
6 Back in the Shade Brice Blanc 6.60

[banacek]

Race 5 1M Turf
Purse: $51000.00 Firm Sunny
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
2 Fleet Caroline Joseph Talamo 9.20 6.00 4.20
5 Miss Josiey Wales (GB) Clinton L. Potts 7.60 6.00
6 Back in the Shade Brice Blanc 6.60

This time you bet $706 and collected $9.20. I'm not trying to be smart. I just don't get the logic - why bother with the $2 bet anyways? Earlier on in your bets, it would be a small hedge - but now it does nothing when the other bets are of such a magnitude.

[cantlose]

Hollywood Race 7

hol race 7 $6 win # 3
hol race 7 $430 win # 6
hol race 7 $2 win # 10
hol race 7 $0 exacta box 3-6-10

[cantlose]

This time you bet $706 and collected $9.20. I'm not trying to be smart. I just don't get the logic - why bother with the $2 bet anyways? Earlier on in your bets, it would be a small hedge - but now it does nothing when the other bets are of such a magnitude.

It's a program telling me what to bet. A win in that race be either of the first two picks would recover the amounts that I have previously lost.

The third pick and exacta box are played for extra winnings.

The way this program works, you win what you win and get back what you lose. So far today I've lost the winnings I had from the previous five days plus some of my original bankroll. When I hit a recover wager I'll get it all back.

[Light]

This time you bet $706 and collected $9.20.


This is the glaring flaw in Cantlose's program. I was going to mention this before but decided to wait till it illustrated itself.

[Ron]

I really do think that cantlose IS anderon...and some other users as well.

[banacek]

It's a program telling me what to bet. A win in that race be either of the first two picks would recover the amounts that I have previously lost.

The third pick and exacta box are played for extra winnings.

The way this program works, you win what you win and get back what you lose. So far today I've lost the winnings I had from the previous five days plus some of my original bankroll. When I hit a recover wager I'll get it all back.

I understand the concept of loss recovery. My question is - take Hol Race 7 you bet $430 on one horse. That's fine. What is the point of betting $6 on another horse and $2 on yet another? If you bet 250, 100, and 80 or something like that - then if one of the others won, you'd have somewhat of a hedge. A $6 bet and a $2 bet serves as no hedge on a $430 bet.

[banacek]

I really do think that cantlose IS anderon...and some other users as well.

I don't know, Anderon is a toteboard player. Seems like quite a switch of methods.

[cantlose]

I understand the concept of loss recovery. My question is - take Hol Race 7 you bet $430 on one horse. That's fine. What is the point of betting $6 on another horse and $2 on yet another? If you bet 250, 100, and 80 or something like that - then if one of the others won, you'd have somewhat of a hedge. A $6 bet and a $2 bet serves as no hedge on a $430 bet.

The program calculates wagers based on the amount in the bankroll, the odds of each of the three played horses and the amount of money from lost from previous losing tickets.

This is without a doubt the worst day I have had and it's my luck that it would happen when I post live in a forum but I will still recovery my losses.

I was up over $2,800 from the five previous days so I still have a sizable bankroll.

[Light]

The program calculates wagers based on the amount in the bankroll, the odds of each of the three played horses and the amount of money from lost from previous losing tickets.


Obviously it's math is off when you bet $706 and return $9.20.

[cantlose]

Obviously it's math is off when you bet $706 and return $9.20.

The calculations are correct, It is not a dutching program.

The wagers on each of the three horses are calculated independent of each other.

The $9.20 will become winnings when I recover my losses.

Look at all of the wagers on the third pick. It's just there for a few extra bucks when the third pick wins. It's as simple as that.

[Light]

I dont think you will find 1 person to agree with what you just said.

[cantlose]

Evangeline Race 4

ev race 4 $14 win # 5
ev race 4 $560 win # 6
ev race 4 $4 win # 13
ev race 4 $0 exacta box 5-6-13

[cantlose]

Evangeline Race 5ev race 5 $750 win # 13
ev race 5 $8 win # 9
ev race 5 $4 win # 2
ev race 5 $12 exacta box 13-9-2

[cantlose]

Evangeline Race 7

ev race 7 $10 win # 7
ev race 7 $442 win # 4
ev race 7 $4 win # 5
ev race 7 $12 exacta box 7-4-5

[MONEY]

Hey CANTLOSE, do you realize that you are down $1788.00:blush: in just your silly win bets over the last 3 races. You are probably down over $10,000 for the night. I think it's time for you to give up on your system:ThmbDown: and learn to handicap:ThmbUp:.

[Ron]

Please don't discourage him. We're gonna hit the next one. Give me another drink!

[cantlose]

Evangeline Race 8

ev race 8 $8 win # 6
ev race 8 $1140 win # 5
ev race 8 $2 win # 1
ev race 8 $12 exacta box 6-5-1

[Ron]

I don't know, Anderon is a toteboard player. Seems like quite a switch of methods.

He's not betting the toteboard?

[banacek]

He's not betting the toteboard?

Nope, some tracks he is plaing 1,2,3 . Others he is using picks from an internet site. I think he's trying to prove his money management method works.

[cantlose]

Nope, some tracks he is plaing 1,2,3 . Others he is using picks from an internet site. I think he's trying to prove his money management method works.

I didn't play 1-2-3 here. I played someone elses selections. I would have been better off playing 1-2-3! A lot better off.

Out of 25 races so far, I hit only 2 small exactas and 10 win tickets playing three horses to win. Thats ten win tickets out of 75 played! Whats that 13% winners playing the top three picks? He seems to pick one low odds horse with two longshots and very few win from his top three. It's the higher odds horses my program puts extra money on to recover losses. I've made 14 recovery wagers playing 25 races so far. Thats not the norm even when playing numbers.


Oh well no excuses! I'll try it again when I can make my own selections using All-Ways


I have never lost before playing hundreds of races. This really is the first time this has happened.


I have enough bankroll to make one more wager but based on what has already happened playing the selections I played it is doubtful I will hit that race. The plays are 9-10-8 in the last race at Evangeline. If either the 9 or 10 wins I will win back everything I lost depending on the odds at the time of the wager.


Oh well just my luck!

[Light]

Down $6500 net. The most ingenius bet is putting $1140 on a horse and a $2 cover bet on a 5-1 shot. Tip,next time bet only $1130 and you're a guaranteed winner.

[cantlose]

Evangeline Race 10

ev race 10 $984 win # 9
ev race 10 $1142 win # 10
ev race 10 $2 win # 8
ev race 10 $0 exacta box 9-10-8

[banacek]

Evangeline Race 10

ev race 10 $984 win # 9
ev race 10 $1142 win # 10
ev race 10 $2 win # 8
ev race 10 $0 exacta box 9-10-8

Now I'm really confused. You started with a bank of $7800 and you are down about $6500, how can you afford the bet?

[cantlose]

Now I'm really confused. You started with a bank of $7800 and you are down about $6500, how can you afford the bet?

Did you add the amounts from todays winning tickets?

[cantlose]

Bust!


Oh well!

No excuses!

[Light]

You're now down $8600. But your $2 on the 8 allmost came through. I believe your bankroll is more than busted. Good day sir.

[banacek]

Did you add the amounts from todays winning tickets?

I thought so, have you down 8514. But I could have made a mistake. But I would assume (hope!) that they were paper bets as there was only a total of $1770 on number 9 in the last race.

[cantlose]

I thought so, have you down 8514. But I could have made a mistake.

Is that all?

That really is the first time I ever lost. I've never even come close to losing before. I did much better playing 1-2-3 than I did playing the selections I played today. 13% winners playing 78 horses to win in 26 races. Thats pretty bad!

Oh well no excuses!

[cantlose]

Your right the program is showing a minus bankroll. I never saw that before. Not that it reall matters! I lost!

[PaceAdvantage]

I knew this would be an enjoyable thread. I just didn't know HOW enjoyable it would eventually turn out to be.....

"That really is the first time I ever lost. I've never even come close to losing before."

Priceless.

[HuggingTheRail]

I followed this off and on today...it felt like one of those Tom Vu infomercials from the 80's...

"A lot of your friends will tell you, 'Don't come to the seminar. It's a get-rich-quick plan.' Well, tell them, It is a get-rich-quick plan because life is too short to get rich slow."

[danmurphy jr]

I would like to try this system using a poor man's format, that is to use a combination of less money and what I consider a mixed bag of price horses. Sort of a controlled loss method. If it doesn't work - it doesn't work, you'll be able to take my word for it. If it does, I'll post it. I tend not to use chalk so W/P will be used with $1-2 Exacta boxes if at all.
I need to know how to convert an Excel document to Word so I can Cut & Paste it to a thread. As I key this, it may be coming to me. Thanks for any help.

[kingfin66]

What an entertaining thread! Keep it coming.

"Recovery" = Due Column? = Martingale?

[cantlose]

I would like to try this system using a poor man's format, that is to use a combination of less money and what I consider a mixed bag of price horses. Sort of a controlled loss method. If it doesn't work - it doesn't work, you'll be able to take my word for it. If it does, I'll post it. I tend not to use chalk so W/P will be used with $1-2 Exacta boxes if at all.
I need to know how to convert an Excel document to Word so I can Cut & Paste it to a thread. As I key this, it may be coming to me. Thanks for any help.

Dan,

The system has never even come close to failing until yesterday when I lost.

It's not magic! You do need to have winners from your top three picks. No system would work with the selections I used yesterday. I had less then 13% winners playing 3 horses to win. 13% from your top pick is bad, 13% from your top three picks is terrible. I did much better playing 1-2-3 in every race.

[Light]

Evangeline Race 10

ev race 10 $984 win # 9
ev race 10 $1142 win # 10
ev race 10 $2 win # 8
ev race 10 $0 exacta box 9-10-8


If the 8 won this race(and he was your best hope and ran 2nd)you would have collected $9.80 for your investment of $2128. If you dont see the stupidity in this kind of betting,you need to change your name to cantwin.You cannot recoup these kinds of losses. Simply dutching according to odds will beat your system anyday.

[ljb]

I believe you can cut and paste from excel.
4/18/2007 Penn National 7 c $2.00 WIN 8 $2.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Keeneland 6 c $4.00 SHO 2 $4.00 $0.00 $9.60
4/18/2007 Keeneland 6 c $4.00 SHO 2 $4.00 $0.00 $9.60
4/18/2007 Keeneland 6 c $4.00 SHO 2 $4.00 $0.00 $9.60
4/18/2007 Keeneland 6 c $4.00 PLA 2 $4.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Keeneland 6 c $2.00 WIN 2 $2.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Pimlico 3 c $1.00 EXA 3,5 (Box) $2.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Pimlico 3 c $2.00 WIN 3 $2.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Beulah Park 6 c $2.00 WIN 1 $2.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Aqueduct 1 c $2.00 EXA 5,6 (Box) $4.00 $0.00 $0.00
4/18/2007 Aqueduct 1 c $5.00 WIN 5 $5.00 $0.00 $10.75
here is an example

[danmurphy jr]

I know it can be done, I don't know how-step by step
All the figures are up, have what you have, now what? Thanks so far

[danmurphy jr]

Test - 1 Track - $2.00 Wagers - 3 Entries - 9/2 Min exc. for today's test
Aqueduct WIN PLA
1st
#6 Notable Tiger 6/1 ---- ----
#10 Hurry Up Hillard 8/1 ---- ----
#3 Noble Duty 12/1 ---- ----
Ex-Bx -$12.00
4th
#8 Make it Come True 6/1 ---- 5.70
#10 Innovator 10/1 ---- ----
#7 Victory 4 Sierra 2/1 $4.10 - 2.60
Ex-Bx $2 +$26.00
7th
#7 Archie Boy 12/1 $7.50 - 4.90
#5 Brave Sir Robin 5/1 ---- ----
#3 Dodgem 7/2 SCRATCH
Ex- Bx - $4.00
8th
#4 Tommmasi 5/2 $8.10 - 3.70
#5 Whoopie Again 6/1 ---- ---
#2 RJ's Brigade 5/1 ---- ----
Ex-Bx -$12.00

Totals:
---- $18.00
WIN $19.70 - PLA $16.90
Ex-Bx +$10.00
$$ Total Day + $28.60
Could have lost $96.00

[danmurphy jr]

Trying it for the weekend only. Min. 60% return to continue.
Off to a bad start. Too many scratches and only a Place return in the 1st of 4.
I'll put it up as a thread. Using the 1st-4th-8th-9th. Scratches in all - 2 in 9th.
Tomorrow, will try and use back ups. I'm way too slow at this