THOROGRAPH VS THE SHEETS?

[horseplayer7776]

THOROGRAPH VS THE SHEETS?

Both companies are offerering Derby specials, they seem quite expensive, does anyone use them and want to offer an opinion on which one to buy?

[cj]

Neither. Sweetnorthernsaint was the big play last year.

[mannyberrios]

:bang: Sweetnorthensint broke from the 12 hole.

[cj]

What is so bad about the 12 hole in a 1 1/4 race?

[alysheba88]

What is so bad about the 12 hole in a 1 1/4 race?

Depends what track you are on, how many horses in the race, running style of the horse and running style of horses around

[cj]

Depends what track you are on, how many horses in the race, running style of the horse and running style of horses around

All of this is true. However, I can't ever remember a horse running poorly merely because they selected the 12 hole for the Derby.

[melman]

To be fair Craig, the sheets had a HUGE score in the KY Oaks last year. Don't know if that is in KY package deal being offered this year.

[cj]

To be fair Craig, the sheets had a HUGE score in the KY Oaks last year. Don't know if that is in KY package deal being offered this year.

I was just teasing. One race doesn't mean much as we all know, especially a bomb bettor like yourself.

[JimG]

I would be very surprised if the sheets or TG were more helpful than CJ's figs. If you are a fig player, it really is hard to beat PaceFigures.

Jim

[alysheba88]

I agree that the trainers and owners outthink themselves when it comes to Derby post selection. All deathly afraid of being inside even when they have speed

[melman]

Bomb player?? I'm a weasly chalk eater. :)

[cj]

I would be very surprised if the sheets or TG were more helpful than CJ's figs. If you are a fig player, it really is hard to beat PaceFigures.

Jim

To be fair, I was no Barbaro fan last year. I don't remember, who, or if, I bet last year.

[JimG]

Bomb player?? I'm a weasly chalk eater. :)

Your the only guy I know that considers a $30 winner chalk. :lol:

[garyoz]

Both are used by trainers, jockey agents, owners and professional players. For example, Ron Anderson (former agent for Jerry Bailey and current agent for Gomez and Migliore) has been quoted being as a user of The Sheets. Before the Beyers they had a huge advantage, and are still great figs. They include many elements that are not included in the Beyers (ground loss, wind, run-up, weight, etc.) Thorograph v. The Sheets is sort of a coke v. pepsi question.

The Xtra's (at www.equiform.com) also are handmade figures that include pace figures, but do not include lost of ground. They do use pace figures in very innovative ways. Equiform also has a KY Derby and Triple Crown package. Carey Fotias and John Pricci provide an oddsline and suggested wagers in conjunction with the seminar.

I attended The Sheets KY Derby seminar in NYC for years, and it was great. I have also downloaded Thorograph's seminar and found it worthwhile. As of late, I have been more interested in pace figures and final figures adjusted for pace, so have been a user of Equiform. It is a personal thing. Whatever works for you.

If you are looking for a blackbox, forget it. All three provide excellent data to help you structure wagers and make decisions, but you still have to make your own decisions. If you are a newbie, using any of the services could be a challenge if you are trying to interprete they data yourself. There is much nuance.

[Edward DeVere]

Coke vs. Pepsi?

Coke. Next question.

[garyoz]

Coke vs. Pepsi?

Coke. Next question.


Must be a Sheets guy then. Thorograph are a knock-off using the same methodology.

[bobphilo]

What is so bad about the 12 hole in a 1 1/4 race?

CJ,

Check out my Derby PP analysis in the Derby Favorites thread. The 5 inner posts have an advantage and the 10-15 posts have the worst win %. It's not a huge disadvantage, though, and the 12 horse can often work out a trip if he can get closer to the rail. A lot depends on how good the horses inside of him are too, as well as luck - as usual in the Derby.

Bob

[kev]

CJ How was Sweet a play off The Sheets? Let's see he just ran a -1 and on four weeks rest? Sounds like a back up move to me, unless Jerry or Len was all over him. To the first question, I would pick The Sheets. Download a few sheets off of both web sites, Thorograph has alot of the past Derbys for you to download.

[Pace Cap'n]

To be fair, I was no Barbaro fan last year. I don't remember, who, or if, I bet last year.

Don't worry, somebody will.

[Dan Montilion]

Who gives a sheet?

[Tom]

Sheryl Crow, but only one!:rolleyes:

[bigmack]

From rudimentary math I note that The Sheets are $90 for 3 cards. There were 9 tracks running today so that's $270 for all 9 cards.

HDW products like HSH, HTR, HOS, Syn are about $120/month, give or take, making them $4/day for every card/every day. Let alone CJ's are what, $150/year.

So that means on a slow day when only 9 tracks are running and the cost is $270 for all cards with The Sheets, their service is at least 68 times better than the aforementioned, let alone hundreds of times better on days with 15+ running? Do they make you breakfest in the morning after showing you a good time as well?

[Valuist]

CJ How was Sweet a play off The Sheets? Let's see he just ran a -1 and on four weeks rest? Sounds like a back up move to me, unless Jerry or Len was all over him. To the first question, I would pick The Sheets. Download a few sheets off of both web sites, Thorograph has alot of the past Derbys for you to download.

I thought they said he'd "pair up"? Let's face it, if he runs big, they say he "pairs up"; if he runs poorly, he bounces.

While I think both have flawed numbers, you can see stuff like when a horse runs best at what time of year, off a layoff, etc that you'd need a lifetime pp from the DRF. Also, T-Graph has considerable trainer data that the Sheets don't have so I'd have to say T-Graph is superior.

[garyoz]

From rudimentary math I note that The Sheets are $90 for 3 cards. There were 9 tracks running today so that's $270 for all 9 cards.

Both the Sheets and Thorograph offer discounts for multi-track purchases on the same day. Perhaps still expensive, but customers see the value or they wouldn't be in business. No one buys data for nine tracks.

BTW, both Ragozin and TG also have a good record of claiming and purchasing horses. If I were an owner or trainer I couldn't imagine not looking at one of the Sheet services.

[mamaluke]

Sheets are better than thorograph in my opinion
Have used both over the years

Jerry Brown is an ex employee of the sheets who took some data and started on his own

The sheets offer a course of about 15 tapes and I advise you do not put money down until you understand the tapes,which took me about 4 months to grasp what they were about.Sometimes they point to great winners other times its random.Last Saturday at Keenland in the 6th race most of the sheey players had the $45 winner as verified by responses from winners

As far as the Derby goes they are not so good,as ALL these horses are doing something they never did before and that is a mile 1/4.

Sheets cant predict if the horse can get a the distance so do what your doing and dont buy the sheets.

I have been a sheet player 25+ years and they were much better years ago before lasix in N.Y. and other drugs used that are undetected by certain trainers.

Now I am only an occasional player and only bet big about 15-20 times a year
over the summer and fall meets


Good luck to you in betting horses as it is fun but very hard work and effort to be successful and very few will reach a winning level

[skate]

IMO, it'll take anyone, to gather experience first, for either thoro or sheets to be significant.


to walk into 'one race', which is very unsignificant to Stats would put you back at the starting line.

[TurfRuler]

Anyone that can take negative and positive numbers and make the negative numbers reflect a positive and the positive reflect a negative has to be near genius to have them both used by trainers, jockey agents, owners and professional players in their attempt to win more money than you.

[classhandicapper]

They both make very good speed figures. The major difference is in the methodology they use for making the daily track variant (change of track speed issues).

It is far too long and complex a story to discuss here, but there are advantages and disadvantages to both methodologies. If you are a figure maker or have some knowledge of the issues, you should probably select the product that is more in sync with your thinking. If you don't know much about the subject, dabble with both and go with the one you are doing better with.

[sjk]

Normally I pay no attention to others numbers and very little to my own since my program deals with all that internally but last weekend I ran a horse in a race where there were lots of free figures posted and of course I looked at them.

I found it interesting how widely the numbers varied. Probably the rest of you have known this for years.

There are probably several widely divergent roads to success and it takes a really large sample to figure out which is best.

[kev]

I don't know who you are talking about, someone said he paired up? Maybe it was Thorograph, The Ragozin Sheets had him coming in with a new top of a -1 it's that ime of year so I have all my old derby sheets out looking over them. :jump:

[rrbauer]

THOROGRAPH VS THE SHEETS?

Both companies are offerering Derby specials, they seem quite expensive, does anyone use them and want to offer an opinion on which one to buy?

Why don't you buy a set of each and let us know what comes out the best?

[NYPlayer]

I was at the The Sheets' seminar last year, and look forward to attending again next Thursday. Len Friedman goes over very horse's numbers and rates each one. I find his analysis both entertaining and informative.

Last year I had expected him to rate Sweetnorthernsaint as the best based on his big number in the IL Derby and his rapid progress as a 3 yo, and was pretty surprised when Len gave him a "B" rating and Barbaro an "A". Barbaro had just surpassed his 2yo top and looked to Friedman to be headed for better, while Sweet had just gotten a big top and was coming in off of 3 weeks rest. I had reservations about Barbaro. Towards the end of the seminar Len had called Barbaro the classic Sheets play. I used him heavily in exactas with Sweet and the result is history - Len was right.

In the Preak, I looked for Sweet to rebound, and expected Barbaro to bounce, but was not certain about Berdardini. Sweet was second and Bernardini won. I didn't know it, but Len had posted his analysis of the Preak on their bulletin board. His pick?

Bernardini!

Since then I read his posts. He's damn good is all I can say.

[mamaluke]

Len is a nice guy and super bright.

However he gives too many horses he likes.

Sometimes as many as 7 in the same race that he is using

If he gave the one horse he was betting to win I would agree with you.

Len is knowledgeable as they come in the racing business,and I also
value his opinion.I just wish he would commit more to one horse on the
win end rather than spread out in "2 OR MORE EXACTA KEYS"

[bobphilo]

Both are similar in that that they include ground loss and weight in the figures. The main difference is that Ragozinn believes that the track does not change speed during the day and assigns all races the same variant. He also combines 1 and 2-turn races. Jerry Brown at T-Graph calculations seperate the 1 and 2 turn races and also cuts some races loose if the figures indicate that the track speed changed for a particular race.
They both produce good figures, though I feel that T-Graph figures are better able to spot track speed changes. The ground loss adjustements are a good idea they both share, though I'm skeptical that the effect of weight can be calcualted as precisely for each horses as they both claim.
One weakness in both is that they underplay the effect of pace on final time which tends to lessens the accuracy of their predictions of how well the horses performed.
While there figures are good I find there analysis are too quick to attribute all off performances to the infamous "bounce theory", which has an almost cult-like following. The figures (especially TG) can be used in isolation of this analysis and when interpreted in terms of one's own analysis, as I do, are very useful.

Bob

[George Sands]

Bobphilo,

Your part about Ragozin assigning the same variant to every race is false.

I'm also wondering what the "philo" in your nickname means.

[bobphilo]

Bobphilo,

Your part about Ragozin assigning the same variant to every race is false.

I'm also wondering what the "philo" in your nickname means.

Len Ragozin in his book , "The Odds Must Be Crazy" states that unless there is an obvious change in the whether, such as a sudden thunderstorm, the variant for the day's races does not change.
The philo stands for philosphy (the love of wisdom) - that was what my undergrad major in college was. Is your George Sands connected to the French author?

Bob

[George Sands]

Bob,

Ragozin's book says that all races must be done at the same variant unless "rain, a freeze, or a thaw changes things." This leaves a lot of room to change variants within cards because in addition to sudden rain, there will be drying out conditions--caused by earlier rain--that mandate a change in variant within a card. I was afraid that your previous post, if taken literally, might have left people with the impression that Ragozin never changes variants within cards. He does change them. Thanks for the explanation about your name. Mine has no connection to the French Romantic author, who ought to have had the good sense to choose a different pen name in anticipation of my arrival. Thanks for the reply and for your always-interesting posts.

[cj]

I have loooked at both figures many times. I am nearly certain The Sheets don't break out races very often at all. They make some bad figures because of this. Thorograph breaks out races quite often. They do it way too much in my opinion. The make some bad figures because of this as well. So, I would call it a push.

However, with regards to ground loss, I thing TG does a much better job. If you truly believe all ground loss is created equal, TG is better in my opinion.

All that said, I'll stick with making my own. :)

[john del riccio]

I am really biting my tongue here...I have paid very close attention to all figs and have my opinion which will appear self serving which is why I don't feel
I should express it fully. NO figure makers gets every race spot on. Its impossible; too many unknowns. Since I do this, I can say it applies to me too.
No matter which method you use, there are holes; with these two approaches I beleive an error in one days figures tend to propgate forward. Thats makes a small percent error turn into a large percent error over time.

John

[cj]

NO figure makers gets every race spot on...
John

I agree 100%, myself certainly included.

[cj's dad]

Depends what track you are on, how many horses in the race, running style of the horse and running style of horses around

I think Monarchos was waaay outside !

[aaron]

As far as outside posts go,one thing is for sure, you would not want an outside post at Belmont going a 11/4. At Belmont,the outside posts usually lead to ground loss or having to use your horse early.
Obviously, the Kentucky Derby is not run at Belmont,and for that race I'm not sure which post positions are best,but if I had the choice of #1 or #20,I'd take my chances with the rail.

[Grits]

I think Monarchos was waaay outside !

Yes he was. He broke from the 16 hole, raced five or 6 wide--outrun to the 3/4 pole; where then, he started picking them off, sweeping the entire field, still five or six wide into the stretch and passing Congaree.

With my binoculars on him from gate to wire, it was one of the most awesome runs I have ever watched on Derby Day. He was a game and dead fit racehorse.

And its a joy to recall it.

[cj's dad]

Yes he was. He broke from the 16 hole, raced five or 6 wide--outrun to the 3/4 pole; where then, he started picking them off, sweeping the entire field, still five or six wide into the stretch and passing Congaree.

With my binoculars on him from gate to wire, it was one of the most awesome runs I have ever watched on Derby Day. He was a game and dead fit racehorse.

And its a joy to recall it.

Some recent history re: post positions:

Barbaro-10
Giacomo-10
Smarty Jones-13
Funny Cide & War Emblem-5
Monarchos-16
Fus. Peg-15
Charismatic-16
Grindstone-15
Thunder Gulch-16

Makes the 12 hole for SwNoSaint look "not too shabby" !!

Prior to these, it did seem like the inner posts were more advantagous. Is it possible that with the thinning of blood-lines that the race is now such a crap shot that the post is insignificant and it has now become a matter of, among
many other factors, racing luck ??

[Grits]

There is no other race that so much importance is--on a clean break, along with the run up to, and position going into, the first turn.

A front runner from post 4 inward has a shot--that is, only if he can get that never asked for distance, and that's a long way to carry front-end speed.

I wouldn't want either of these posts coming from back in the pack. Too many traffic probables. Sitting just off the pace, yes, those are fine posts; but not for a sustained run.

This is why I don't ever handicap this race until the posts are drawn.

[Tom]

....NO figure makers gets every race spot on. Its impossible; too many unknowns.

John

LOL! Even the offical clockers don't get the RAW tmes correct every time!
Can you spell Golfstreem? :lol: (aw, heck, close enough)

[cj]

LOL! Even the offical clockers don't get the RAW tmes correct every time!
Can you spell Golfstreem? :lol: (aw, heck, close enough)

Raw times correct? Often we are lucky to even get raw times, even if incorrect.

[cj's dad]

Yes he was. He broke from the 16 hole, raced five or 6 wide--outrun to the 3/4 pole; where then, he started picking them off, sweeping the entire field, still five or six wide into the stretch and passing Congaree.

With my binoculars on him from gate to wire, it was one of the most awesome runs I have ever watched on Derby Day. He was a game and dead fit racehorse.

And its a joy to recall it.

I went back and watched a replay of that race and remember a number of things that gave me chills. The opening 1/4 was run in 44.8, fastest at the time ,and may still be, in KD history. The half went in 1:09/3. Monarchos late run was a beauty to behold, and so was his price as I had him in leg 2 of the futures for $20-got back + $500.

I was visiting CJ in Wyoming ( a surprise for him-he had just made M/SGT.) and we watched at an OTB in Cheyenne. 4 or 5 of us boxed horses and we hit the exacta worth over a thousand dollars. Invisible Ink ran 2nd and paid $50 to place. Todd Pletcher was Inkies trainer.

Was this Pletchers first big splash into the national scene? I don't seem to recall his history prior to that and am too lazy to look it up

[cj's dad]

I forgot the main reason for my last post. Monarchos ran the 2nd fastest time- 1:59/97 in KD history, second only to Secratariat.

Only two sub-par 2 minute KD's !! :ThmbUp:

[highnote]

The Xtra's (at www.equiform.com) also are handmade figures that include pace figures, but do not include lost of ground.

I could be wrong, but I seem to recall Fotias does take account of the number of paths wide a horse is placed throughout a race and adjusts the number accordingly.

[garyoz]

They don't. As he says in his book, you just end up readjusting for them when handicapping the trip.

[mamaluke]

Rogazin Sheets are best for 2,3,and lightly raced 4 year olds.


The Sheets are excellent in deternmining when a young horse has a probability to move foward with a faster race as determined by the numbers he ran.

A good example would be when a 2 year old betters his top at 3 by a point or less.Many of these horses run new tops in 8 weeks or less/This is an edge as it happens way over 50% of the time

On older horse the Sheets are random in most cases. Numbers not much different than other published numbers, as the older horse has already made all his moves and is just hanging on with average or below average range of number power on his physical condition

I would add the grass numbers are good and there is less "bouncing" on grass

[NYPlayer]

Both are similar in that that they include ground loss and weight in the figures. The main difference is that Ragozinn believes that the track does not change speed during the day and assigns all races the same variant. He also combines 1 and 2-turn races. Jerry Brown at T-Graph calculations seperate the 1 and 2 turn races and also cuts some races loose if the figures indicate that the track speed changed for a particular race.
They both produce good figures, though I feel that T-Graph figures are better able to spot track speed changes. The ground loss adjustements are a good idea they both share, though I'm skeptical that the effect of weight can be calcualted as precisely for each horses as they both claim.
One weakness in both is that they underplay the effect of pace on final time which tends to lessens the accuracy of their predictions of how well the horses performed.
While there figures are good I find there analysis are too quick to attribute all off performances to the infamous "bounce theory", which has an almost cult-like following. The figures (especially TG) can be used in isolation of this analysis and when interpreted in terms of one's own analysis, as I do, are very useful.

Bob

I don't use TG, so I don't have much to comment there. Since my early days as a handicapper, I've thought a conservative approach to variant making was the most practical. It just seems to me that you have to anchor a variant to physical realities. Then there's the observor data. I've heard the The Sheets have the strongest network. On site data gathering has got be one of their biggest assets - they can compare times and they know where the turf rails are and the starting gate postion is. The bottom line is they know exactly how long any published race actually was and the actual time. Ragozin goes over all of this in his book.

As for the bounce theory - A new top is a new top, an effort is an effort, and an off race is an off race. Horses move into and out of form all of the time. The reason for the off races is the new tops and efforts that precede them. Condition theory tells you to expect change, not continuity.