long term capital plays 04-22-2007

[formula_2002]

Here are a few of todays plays

pha 2nd #11 7 units
tdn 10th # 1 12 units
mnr 10th # 2 15 units
sun 5th # 3 7 units

It's almost impossible for these beast to miss the board ( :blush: ), given that, then it's just a matter of price..

the last ten posted plays went 9 for 10 in the show pool

snet
4
2.8
0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.4
2.4

[melman]

I take it Joe that all of your real cash plays are then w/p plays? Your using various amounts on each such as $70 win and $70 place on one and $150 win and $150 place on another. Glad to see your betting and winning for a long time I never thought I would see the day when you would. :jump: Would you mind if I jump in with some real time harness plays of mine using the same format of w/p? Continued sucess to you Joe it's good to see you betting. :)

[melman]

R1 at Meadowlands take the 2 at 6-1 $60 win place

[formula_2002]

R1 at Meadowlands take the 2 at 6-1 $60 win place
excellent!!Meadowlands - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $19.00 $9.40 $5.00
Unfortunately for me< I just came bacb form my walk! :bang:

[Boonrassi]

my friend, star halo has a bad post for a sprint.
i mean, it's a well known, much discussed, important handicapping factor.
that post ads another obstacle to overcome.
why do that? why not simply wait for the star halos to be inside the 7 post?
yes, with teakwood out, star is a dominant horse.
but that dosen't matter. that post could cause a difficult trip.
i'm shocked everyday when your math and Whobets math provide picks in sprints from waayy outside posts. they lose over and over and over.
it just makes no sense. it's a well known handicapping factor.
let me ask anyone reading this:
is star halos pp in this race a positive factor?
can't you just look at your database for your picks in sprints with bad posts and see for yourself what i'm talking about?
watch what happens too your roi when you only bet your picks that are inside post 7. in sprints. go look for your self. it's right there.
also, things get ugly with horses away more then 21 days, matters get brutal away more then 28.
stars form is so, so.
my point is... can't you simply look at your database and see for yourself what happens when you only invest in the star halos that are:
away less then 21 days. period.
inside the 7 post. period.
simple. and very profitable.
then try:
away 14 days or less.
post 3 or better.
why, by thor's hammer, invest cash in a bad post position.
can't you just look at your database and click the mouse a couple times and see what i'm saying is true right now. i dunno.
we talked a bit 2 weeks ago. i was on long winning streak. that streak went to 28 cashed tickets in a row. 28 in a row. 14 days of bets. those are place or show bets.
bet 29 was the first race at lrl on a sloppy track, only i didn't know it was sloppy. the weather was fine, it had rained OVERNIGHT.
i've won the past 14 races in a row right now.
some of your picks are in my last 40 bets. the ones that are:
away 21 days or less. period.
inside the 7 post. period.
oh, and 95% of my plays are sprints. sometimes i play 1 miles.
does star halo have a good post?
peace,
B

[melman]

Tks Joe always good to start with a nice priced winner. A good day for a walk here in Philly it's 78 and sunny. Your walk was just a little to long. :) R2 at MED looks to be between the 5 and 1 might be a pass race.

[melman]

2 min to post at BigM a pass for sure. Joe I have it correct then your using w/p bets of your real cash bets with various amounts??

[Boonrassi]

not to win at the very least.
tdn race 10 magic berti. away 147 days. you gotta be kidding. u just gotta be. sure, lone e, everything else is fine. but bet money on it? yikes.

mnr race 10 blackjack. away 22 days. thats a real warning sign. does not dominate the field.

sun race 5 tricky. 36 days away. no.

there are no bets here for professional players.
each one screams stay away.
best,
B

[Boonrassi]

did you watch that race or can you watch it?
star had a horrible trip instigated by being in the 11 slot.
thats why being in an outside post in a sprint is a well known, much discussed, much written about handicapping factor.
why do your models ignore it utterly?
B

[melman]

R3 at MED I'll take the 5 for $40 w/p

[melman]

Loser in R3 with a poor 4th. Will take $40 w/p on the 4 at MED for R4

[melman]

R6 MED will take $60 w/p on the 2

[melman]

How could I have missed that $136 winner in last at Meadowlands? :jump: Come back with $40 w/p on the 2 for R7

[formula_2002]

2 min to post at BigM a pass for sure. Joe I have it correct then your using w/p bets of your real cash bets with various amounts??
yep w/p, some times a show..like in my first pick today, I played wps and did not hit the board,
the next pick (not posted), I went wp and the beast showed for $5.00 ugh.

[formula_2002]

not to win at the very least.
tdn race 10 magic berti. away 147 days. you gotta be kidding. u just gotta be. sure, lone e, everything else is fine. but bet money on it? yikes.

mnr race 10 blackjack. away 22 days. thats a real warning sign. does not dominate the field.

sun race 5 tricky. 36 days away. no.

there are no bets here for professional players.
each one screams stay away.
best,
B

just saw your post..too late I went 40 w/p on the "Magic".
lets hope I can :jump: :jump: it!!

[melman]

At least got a place last race to end the drought. Go with $40 w/p on the 4 for R8

[melman]

I hear you Joe, I'm getting to many 3rd's and 4th's also :) Still a nice profit for the day with that good priced winner of the 1st. For R9 will go with $60 w/p on the 5 who looks very solid in here.

[melman]

For the last race of the day at BigM will go with $40 w/p on the 2

[formula_2002]

just saw your post..too late I went 40 w/p on the "Magic".
lets hope I can :jump: :jump: it!!

River/Thistle - Race 10
# Win Place Show
1 $4.20 $2.80 $3.00 :jump: :jump:

I owned 1 1/2% of the win pool and 4% of the place pool.
Perhpas that why the show paid more than the plac!!

[Boonrassi]

wo r13 knocker. lr 14 days pp 4.

tup r3 let me dance lr 20 days pp 1.

tup r9 10 deuce lr 16 days pp 5 dominant horse.

mnr r2 donna's lr 15 days pp 5 dominant horse.

the first two are not quite doms, but close.

peace,
B

[melman]

OK Joe always nice to get a winner, gl with the upcoming Sunland race. Totals for me at Meadowlands today. Bet $760 Return $ 974 I'll take it. :)

[shanta]

Totals for me at Meadowlands today. Bet $760 Return $ 974 I'll take it. :)

Once again Mel

THANK YOU :)

Richie

[Boonrassi]

comes to an end with the 3rd at tup. loseing blows.
bet size increases 10%.

[Boonrassi]

but i meant wo r10,
knocker.

[melman]

Didn't know you were around richie, you up fo "live" Woodbine tonight? Hope you got that R1 winner at Club Med I did post it a little on the late side but still before post time.

[melman]

Woodbine R2 $40 w/p on the 2

[formula_2002]

Woodbine R2 $40 w/p on the 2

more nice!!


Woodbine Harness - Race 2 [ Chart ] [ Video Replay ]
# Win Place Show
7 $23.30 $9.70 $5.70
2 . $9.60 $8.40

[melman]

Tks Joe I'm keeping this in the format of w/p betting but I use win, ex, and pic betting for myself. Had that R2 ex for a nice return. You have any more plays tonight before that one at MTR??

[formula_2002]

Tks Joe I'm keeping this in the format of w/p betting but I use win, ex, and pic betting for myself. Had that R2 ex for a nice return. You have any more plays tonight before that one at MTR??

nope thats it for me.
I'm ahead a few bucks. If I win the Mnr race I'm a winner for the day else I'm down about $100.

Looks like Enigma had a good day.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=35845

good luck the rest of tonight..

Joe M

[melman]

OK Joe hope you hit that one at MTR. Going with the 10 at Woodbine in R5 for $40 w/p

[melman]

R6 Woodbine $40 w/p on the 6

[HuggingTheRail]

R6 Woodbine $40 w/p on the 6


Beautiful drive there....(NOT)

I've seen better driving by New York cabbies...

[melman]

R8 Woodbine $40 w/p on the 2

[melman]

Cannot disagree with u Hugging The Rail was not a very good drive. Not sure how the NY cabbies drive however. :jump:

[melman]

A better drive on that 2 in R8 Hugging the Rail nice $9.10 win and $3.70 place. For R9 will go with $40 w/p on the 8.

[melman]

R9 the 8 pays $5.30 to place so a winning night. Bet $400 Return $554

[HuggingTheRail]

Well Done....not a lot of chalk tonight it seemed.

[formula_2002]

finals for me. dn $54 ..still showing a positive wp roi since 4/1/2007.
So there is still some hope! :faint: