Determining max dollar bet in pools without swinging odds

[Jesterjj]

What would be the maximum dollar amount you could bet on any horse without swinging that horses odds? I'm guesing that it would be a percentage of that horse's share in the pool. Would that be the right direction or am I off?

For example, lets say I want to make a bet in the win pool on the favorite. If I didn't want to alter his odds, what would (or might be) the maximum percentage of his share of the win pool that I would be able to bet? Also, if he were a longshot, I assume it would be the same percentage.

Would any of this change if it were a bet in the place or show pools?

Anyway, knowing this would help alot at the lesser tracks with the smaller pools. It's been something I've wondered about the last couple of days after watching the dollar amounts at small tracks.

[cj]

Any bet is going to change the horses odds. It is just a matter of how much.

Give an example, what was the final pool size and the amount bet on the horse?

[Jesterjj]

Any bet is going to change the horses odds. It is just a matter of how much.

That's why I was thinking of using a percentage of that horse's share of the pool. For example, lets say the magic number was 10%, then if the horse's share of the win pool was $1000, then the max bet without changing odds would be $100. I think that "how much" would be a percentage, would you agree with that?

Give an example, what was the final pool size and the amount bet on the horse?

Well, the amount bet on the horse wouldn't matter, because that's exactly what I'm trying to figure out, how much to bet.

Arbitrary numbers of a hypothetical win pool follow:

Horse 1 - $300
Horse 2 - $500
Horse 3 - $3000
Horse 4 - $1000

Okay, if I were to make a bet on the favorite in this race, what would the percentage of his share of the win pool be without changing the odds? I don't know that, so here's some random numbers for the sake of making this more clear...

If it were 1% of $3000, the max bet without changing odds would be $30.
If it were 32.86% of $3000, the bet would be $985.80
If it were 25% of $3000, the bet would be $750.
etc, etc

Does that help?

[Dave Schwartz]

I have an interest in this conversation myself. To that end, permit me to post an actual pool:



WIN POOL: 36699
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
--- 1809 4145 6797 5930 2858 780 2065 7758 4557

WIN PROBABLES
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
--- 33.40 14.60 8.80 10.20 21.20 77.80 29.40 7.80 13.20

Takeout is 17.25%

[betovernetcapper]

ATR has a feature that allows you to enter a win-place or show bet and then recalculate the probable payoffs.

[Jesterjj]

ATR has a feature that allows you to enter a win-place or show bet and then recalculate the probable payoffs.

Interesting, I forgot about that feature. I currently have a subscription too. After this thread fleshes out a bit over the next couple of days or so, I'll go play around with that for awhile. If I tinker around with it long enough to come up with anything conclusive I'll report back here.

[cj]

Let's look at two horses, the favored 9 and the higher priced longshot 8.

The pool is 36,669, with a 17.25% takeout. If I didn't bet either horse, the given payouts are 7.80 and 29.40 thanks to Dave's posting.

If your bet size is $50, what would happen to that payoff?

Well, first the pool would increase by $50, to 36,719. After takeout, 30,385 is left for payouts. If the horse bet was the 9, there would now be 7,808 bet on the horse, or 3,904 $2 tickets. The payoff now comes out to 7.78, but after breakage in most places, is reduced to 7.60.

If the horse bet was the 8, the horse now has 2,115 bet on it, or 1,057.5 $2 tickets. The payoff would calculate to 28.73, and reduce due to breakage to 28.60.

Percentage would hold, but since you never know how much, you can only guess what the total pool will be and base your bets on this. Bets on longshots will always hurt your price more of course. The key is to know there will be an effect and bet so as not to turn a profitable play into a loser.

[Jesterjj]

Percentage would hold, but since you never know how much, you can only guess what the total pool will be and base your bets on this.

Yes, that's true.

Expanding on that, something else I've considered is that whatever that hypothetical maximum dollar bet is, that means that if there is even just one extra $1 bet from someone else afterwards then the odds would go down (assuming of course that all the other horses' share of the pool didn't change in that time).

[Edward DeVere]

Good luck at figuring this out in today's environment, when a huge percentage of the betting pool comes in right at the end.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I think the odds depend on total pool, but also on how much is already bet on your horse.
If the pool is $100.00 and $2.00 is bet on your horse, the odds should be twice as high if the pool was $200.00; but if $4.00 was bet on your horse it would be the same as the original odds.
Just considering your own bet if the pool remains unchanged, it depends on the current odds on your horse:
2/1 odds to change to 1/1 takes much more money than 10/1 changing to 9/1.
For practical purposes I say a win bet increase of 5% of the total pool decreases the payoff $.10.

[cj]

Good luck at figuring this out in today's environment, when a huge percentage of the betting pool comes in right at the end.

No doubt this is tough. I studied the average pool sizes for each track and day of the week, and that is my guide for bet size. I don't bother trying to guess the amount bet on any individual horse.

[SMOO]

A single $2 bet could be enough to swing a payoff 20 cents. Not likely, but possible.

[cj]

A single $2 bet could be enough to swing a payoff 20 cents. Not likely, but possible.

This is certainly correct. Good information would be what, given the pool size, is the most one can bet and not swing the price more than 20 cents.